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    CarnegieP a P e r s

    Islam,

    mIlItarIsm, an

    the 20072008

    electIons

    In PakIstan

    Frdric Grare

    South Asia

    Project

    nb 70

    ag 2006

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    6 C E I P. A s sv.

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    C E I PPs Dp19 Mssss Av, NWWs, DC 36P: -483-6Fx: -483-184www.CarnegieEndowment.org

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    v India, China, Russia: Intricacies o an Asian riangle.

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    contents

    Te MMA and the 2002 Elections 5

    Religious Political Parties and the Military: Long-erm rends and actical Mistakes 6T L R Is-Ns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

    Pkss Iss Ps D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

    Does the MMA Matter? 10

    Te 20072008 Elections: One Central Issue 12

    T U.S. F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

    F E Ss . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

    P Ip R Pks Nz S Bz B

    Up Es . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

    Policy Implications 17

    Notes 19

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    3

    he year 2007 will be crucial Pks. I s P As Ms S A Nz s , ps s pv s J 3, 8. As s sz U Ss s, ss , p s, s p ps, M Mjs--A (MMA). M s Ws v Pks p s s s Isss ps MMA

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    Islam, mIlItarIsm, andthe 20072008 electIonsIn PakIstan

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    the mma and the 2002 electIons

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    * The number of seats does not include the reserved seats for women and minorities, which are apportioned according to

    the percentage of votes obtained in the general vote.

    Source:International Crisis Group,Pakistan:TheMullahsandtheMilitary,ICG Asia Report 49 (Islamabad/Brussels:

    International Crisis Group, 2003), pp. 1718.

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    the 20072008 electIons: one central Issue

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    Scenario 2: Musharra continues in uniorm despite U.S. pressure and decides to avor the

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    19

    notes

    1 M Ws, Te 2002 Elections in Pakistan (Is: Q--Az Uvs, I RsDp, 3), p. 3.

    I Css Gp, Pakistan: Te Mullahs and the Military, ICG As Rp 49 (Is/Bsss: ICss Gp, 3), .

    3 I.4 Ws, Te 2002 Elections, p. 33. I.6 I., p. 18, 1. EU E Osv Mss Pks, Final Report o the European Unions Observation Mission to Pakistan:

    National and Provincial Assembly Election (1 O ), p. 31, .

    8 I., p. 3.9 I., p. 33.1 I Css Gp, Pakistan: Te Mullahs and the Military, p. 16.11 Ws, Te 2002 Elections, p. .1 I.

    13 J Mk, Colonization o Islam: Dissolution o raditional Institutions in Pakistan (L: V Bks, 1996), p. 8.14 F G, Pakistan: Te Myth o an Islamist Peril, P B 4 (Ws, D.C.: C E

    I P, 6), .1 Ws, p. ., p. 6.16 S Ov R, L s sq O, Esprit, Ap 1996, p. 8.1 F v p MMA, s I Css Gp, Pakistan: Te Mullahs and the Military,

    pp. 6.18 D zs H s. T q svs s s

    s 186 D, D. A J Mk, ps v svs s, ss s s s, ss s s s, ss s p s s. Mk s, Pp sp ss (p) s Ds. T pj s p ps s ps . I s ss, vv s , hic et nunc.T pz s . S J M k, Colonization o Islam, pp. 4.

    19 I Css Gp,Authoritarianism and Political Party Reorm in Pakistan, ICG As Rp 1 (Is/Bsss: I Css Gp, ), p. 13, .

    I.1 S V Rz Ns, Te Vanguard o Islamic Revolution: Te Jamaat-i-Islami o Pakistan (L: I. B. s, 1994),

    p. 16. Pakistan Political Perspectives, Nv 11, 1999, p. 44.3 Pakistan Political Perspectives, D 1, 1999, p. .4 S K. A Ks, Pakistans Domestic Political Developments, Rp N. RL361 (Ws, D.C.:

    Css Rs Sv, Sp 19, ), p. 16, . I.6 I. I., p. .8 I Css Gp, Pakistans Local Polls: Shoring Up Military Rule, As B 43 (Is/Bsss:

    I Css Gp, ), p. 6, .

    9 I., p. 11.3 I.31 JI Media News, JI S Rs P S, J 3, .

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    3 Pks Ns Sv, Pk., D 1, 4.33 O s s, ss s s ss s ss pv sss,

    s q .34 Pks Is D, Daily imes, M 6, 6, .3 I Css Gp, Pakistans Local Polls, p. 4.36 I., p. 1.3 Z Hss, T G E F, Newsline, Sp .38 F p p s, s I Css Gp, Pakistans Local Polls.39 MMA B Es Ms: Qz,JI Media News, M 14, 6, .4 Qz Ds Ms s Rs, Ck Gv,JI Media News, M 6, 6, .41 Qss Akq, U.S. Ws Cv R: B: N F, F Ps Sss, Dawn, Ap 6, 6,

    .4 I.43 National Security Strategy o the United States o America(Ws, D.C.: W Hs, M 6), p. 39,

    .44

    Pak ribune, D 18, .4 M. M. A, D Is Bk Pks s Rs Ps E s Ss P F, Washington Report onMiddle East Aairs, JF 3, pp. 343.

    46 S Daily imes, Ap , 6.4 Pks Ns Sv, Pk., Ap , 6.48 B, S Ps M B Pks Ps, Khaleej imes, Ap , 6.49 x C D, Dawn, M 16, 6, . Az As, W p, Te Herald, M 6, pp. 331. A , s

    M--Is [ Sp--S Pks] s s vs ss s s k M 6.

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    T s C Ms C, E ps vp p p ss Sv Rps pvs Rss U Ss. T E pss ForeignPolicy, s zs ps s,

    s s 1 s sv s.F , vswww.CarnegieEndowment.org.

    Te South Asia Projects ss ss , v pspv sss s s p: Is s p U.S. s I; pssv Pks s Wsvs s ; , , p-sss U Ss I; v s sss S As.

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    F Cs S As Pj, vswww.CarnegieEndowment.org/SouthAsia.

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    cgi Pp

    2006

    . Islam, Militarism, and the 20072008 Elections in Pakistan (F. G)69. Reorm in Syria: Steering between the Chinese Model and Regime Change68. Te Saudi Labyrinth: Evaluating the Current Political Opening(A. Hz)6. Islamist Movements and the Democratic Process in the Arab World (N. B, A. Hz M. O)66. Evaluating Egyptian Reorm (M. D)6. Pakistan: Te Resurgence o Baluch Nationalism (F. G)64. Lebanon: Finding a Path rom Deadlock to Democracy(J. C)

    2005

    63. Te Dangers o Political Exclusion: Egypts Islamist Problem (B. K)6. Why Did the Poorest Countries Fail to Catch Up?(B. Mv)61. Legalism Ss Fs? U.S. Rule-o-Law Aid in the Arab World(D. M)6. Te Complexity o Success: Te U.S. Role in Russian Rule o Law Reorm (M. Sp)9. Evaluating Palestinian Reorm (N. B)8. Judicial Reorm in China: Lessons rom Shanghai(V. H)

    . Lessons Not Learned: Problems with Western Aid or Law Reorm inPostcommunist Countries(W. C)

    6. Evaluating Middle East Reorm: How Do We Know When It Is Signicant?(M. O). Competing Denitions o the Rule o Law: Implications or Practitioners(R. B)

    2004

    4. E.U.Russia Relations: Interests and ValuesA European Perspective(R. S)3. Te Political-Economic Conundrum: Te Anity o Economic and Political Reorm in the Middle East

    and North Arica(E. B). Political Reorm in the Arab World: A New Ferment?(A. H)1. Cambodia Blazes a New Path to Economic Growth and Job Creation (S. Psk)

    . Integrating Democracy Promotion into the U.S. Middle East Policy(M. D)49. Islamists in the Arab World: Te Dance around Democracy(G. F)48. Democracy and Constituencies in the Arab World(M. O)4. Development and Foreign Investment: Lessons Learned rom Mexican Banking(J. S)46. Deterring Confict in the aiwan Strait: Te Successes and Failures o aiwans

    Deense Reorm and Modernization Program (M. S)4. Europes Uncertain Pursuit o Middle East Reorm (R. Ys)44. Middle Eastern Democracy: Is Civil Society the Answer?(A. H)43. Small Enterprises and Economic Policy(A. s, S. Js)4. Womens Rights and Democracy in the Arab World(M. O)

    2003

    41. Beyond Rule o Law Orthodoxy: Te Legal Empowerment Alternative(S. G)4. Strengthening Linkages between U.S. rade Policy and Environmental Capacity Building

    (J. A, V. U)39. Is Gradualism Possible? Choosing a Strategy or Promoting Democracy in the Middle East(. Cs)38. Veriying North Korean Nuclear Disarmament(J. Ws, F. MGk, S. C)3. Liberalization versus Democracy: Understanding Arab Political Reorm (D. B)

    For a complete list of Carnegie Papers, go to wwwCarnegieEndowmentorg/pubs