ISIS threat to India: How should India respond?

by

Asim Kumar Arun

A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF

THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF

MASTER OF ARTS

in

THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES

(Asia Pacific Policy Studies)

THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

(Vancouver)

December 2016

© Asim Kumar Arun, 2016

ii

ABSTRACT

This thesis traces the evolution of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and its present

geopolitical extent and identifies the major trends and strategic directions. It examines the

official pronouncements about its intentions regarding India and analyses the threat and proposes

a policy prescription.

Today’s terrorist organizations, including ISIS, publish online magazines and videos stating their

policies, strategies and, tactics. These original voices were studied to understand them.

The US invasion of Iraq (2003) and the subsequent failure in creating a “democratic

government” acceptable to the powerful Sunni minority led to strife and sectarian violence.

Radical Islamists and leftover elements of Saddam Hussain’s military got together and created

large scale insurgency eventually leading to the declaration of a “Caliphate” calling out to all the

Muslims in the world to accept it and join the effort to extend it. Less than 30 Indians as

compared to a total of 25,000 are known to have migrated to ISIS area.

Even with all its aberrations, India’s resilience as a syncretic and inclusive society renders hijrat

(migration) an unattractive option. But coming together of radicalized youth into a small terror

modules and striking nearer home is a real and probable threat.

To protect itself, India should follow policies that integrate its Muslim community into the social

mainstream. To prevent its people from getting radicalized through exposure to ISIS propaganda,

the counter radicalization effort needs to be strengthened. The few persons who are known to

have been radicalized but have not undertaken any kind of violence could be considered for

softer deradicalization methods. By involving their family, friends and, community it is possible

to bring these people back into normal domestic life. Attacks can still happen and the capability

to deal with them must be enhanced by creating interdiction capabilities at the state and district

levels. Finally, international terror requires measures across countries for which mechanisms for

international cooperation must be created so that information, intelligence and, evidence flow

seamlessly.

iii

PREFACE

This thesis is an original work by Asim Arun. No part of this thesis has been previously

published.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract .............................................................................................................................ii

Preface ............................................................................................................................. iii

Table of Contents ..............................................................................................................iv

List of Figures: .................................................................................................................. v

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................vi

Introduction: ..................................................................................................................... 1

Chapter 1: Understanding ISIS ............................................................................................ 3

Rise of the ISIS .............................................................................................................. 3

ISIS World View............................................................................................................ 4

Indians in Sham ............................................................................................................. 8

Chapter 2: ISIS and India .................................................................................................. 10

Chapter 3: Policy Prescription: .......................................................................................... 14

Social Integration ......................................................................................................... 14

Counter Radicalization ................................................................................................. 16

De-Radicalization ......................................................................................................... 17

Develop Interdiction Capability at State and District level ................................................ 19

International Cooperation .............................................................................................. 20

Conclusion: ..................................................................................................................... 22

Bibliography: .................................................................................................................. 24

v

LIST OF FIGURES:

Figure 1: ‘Why we hate you’ (Dabiq, 2016) ................................................................................... 5

Figure 2: ISIS Controlled Territory (BBC 2016) ........................................................................... 7

Figure 3: Foreign Fighters by Region ............................................................................................. 9

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

It is my proud privilege to thank my supervisor Dr Tsering Shakya for encouraging me and

giving me a focused direction of research. As a person returning to academic life after a gap of

two decades I could not differentiate academic work from journalistic writing. My professors, Dr

Brian Job, Dr Paul Evans, Dr Julian Dierkes and, Dr Tsering Shakya taught me the academic

method of learning, appreciation and, creation. I would like to thank them for handholding me

into my academic pursuit.

A lot of credit goes to my wife Jyotsna who supported me not just in the academic adventure but

also the logistics that went into it. I thank my parents for encouraging me to resume studies and

the University of British Columbia’s unique culture that motivates me to become a lifelong

learner.

Gratitude is due to the Government of India, my employer, for granting me study leave and

funding the program.

INTRODUCTION:

India has seen terrorism in a number of forms, chasing different objectives and at several places.

A large scale insurgency has been running in its north- easterner part for decades and left-wing

extremism affects seven of its states. It also saw Punjab face very degree of terrorist violence for

a decade before it could be completely cured through strong political resolve and citizens’

support. It also faces regular attacks from terrorist organizations fighting in the name of Islam.

The most prominent such attack took place on November 26, 2008 when India’s financial hub,

Mumbai faced a string of bold attacks at 12 places including iconic locations like the Taj Hotel

and CSM Terminus Railway station. Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based terror group managed to

send 10 fighters by boat to Mumbai where they attacked pre-identified targets in a well- planned

and coordinated manner. It left 164 dead.

26/11, as it has come to be known, exposed India’s vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks. Foreign

fighters unfamiliar with the city held it to ransom for four days and the National Security Guards

had to be flown in from Delhi to neutralize them. Inadequacies of intelligence gathering and

sharing, low or non-existent interdiction capability at the district level and, ineffectual

contingency planning and execution are systemic weaknesses that have not been properly

addressed even today. India remains as vulnerable to new emerging threat, ISIS.

The ISIS is a unique terrorist organization. It is the first organization to enlist as many as 34

thousand fighters, about two thirds of whom are from neither Iraq nor Syria, its main area of

operations. It is the envy of other Islamic terror groups, political organizations and Islamic

countries for its self-declaration of a Caliphate.1 While ISIS imports fighters from the around the

world, it also exports terror.

India faces the threat of ISIS gaining positive understanding among its 172 million Muslims. The

threat of people ‘migrating’ (hijrat) to Iraq and Syria for jihad is also a real one. The online

recruitment campaign also seeks to radicalize Indian Muslim youth and organize them into

1 Sekulow, Jordan Sekulow, Robert W. Ash, David A. French, Jay et al. Rise of ISIS: A Threat We Can't Ignore. 1st ed., Chapter 2: Rise of ISIS and the New Caliphate

2

violent groups. This thesis examines the extent of these threats in time and space by looking at

the visible activity of ISIS in India and identifying general trends across the world.

The thesis, then tries to offer a policy prescription for India. It looks at the strategies employed in

other countries, the prevailing trends and, possible activities India can undertake to handle the

ISIS threat.

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CHAPTER 1: UNDERSTANDING ISIS

Rise of the ISIS

After the US invaded Iraq in 2003, a number of Sunni extremists groups and leftover elements of

Saddam Husain’s military initiated a resistance movement hoping to effectively resist the US by

fomenting a sectarian civil war. The individuals now leading ISIS had earlier constituted Al

Qaida in Iraq (AQI) and its leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had pledged allegiance to Osama bin

Laden. Zarqawi was killed in a US air strike in 2006 and soon after the AQI was almost entirely

wiped out as Sunni tribes had decided to partner with the Americans to confront the jihadists.2

But AQI recovered from this defeat, it renewed itself in US run prisons inside Iraq, like Abu

Ghraib, where a number of insurgents and terror operatives networked and chalked out their

future.3 Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was one such leader who, first, distinguished himself as a leader

and then proclaimed himself the Caliph of the Islamic State and the group renamed itself ad-

Dawlah al-Islāmiyah or Islamic State.4

ISIS is no longer conducting terrorist activities alone but has evolved into a military organization

that is conducting conventional military operations in company and battalion formations, which

was not the case with the way al-Qaida fought. ISIS specializes in using militarily untrained

foreign volunteers as suicide bombers either moving on foot wearing suicide vests, or driving

vehicles packed with explosives. Often more than one suicide bomber is used.5

Audrey Cronin contests that ISIS is no longer merely a terrorist organization, instead, it has

grown into a pseudo state. One that controls sizeable territory, collects taxes, runs schools and

hospitals and, has a well-organized media unit which manages media exposure using film as well

as print media.6 Of late, September to November 2016, ISIS has lost a third of the territory it

once controlled to US-Russian- Iraqi forces.7

2 Hashim, Ahmed S. "The Islamic State: From al‐Qaeda Affiliate to Caliphate." Middle East Policy 21.4 (2014): 69-83. 3 Warrick, Joby. Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS. Random House, 2015. 4 Cronin, Audrey Kurth. "ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group." Foreign Affairs. Web. 4 June 2016 5 McCants, William. The ISIS apocalypse: The history, strategy, and doomsday vision of the Islamic State.

Macmillan, 2015. 6 Zelin, Aaron. "The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has a consumer protection office." The Atlantic 13 (2014): 2014. 7 Mortimer, Caroline. “Isis Loses a Third of Its Territory in Syria and Iraq.” The Independent, 9 Oct. 2016,

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-territory-losing-syria-iraq-terror-jihadists-iraqi-forces-air-strikes-mosul-a7352401.html. (November 26, 2016)

4

It periodically releases videos and publishes a slick online magazine called Dabiq to explain its

views, objectives and, thought.

ISIS World View

In its first issue, Dabiq (ISIS’ online magazine) explained the ISIS’ stand on tawhid

(monotheism), manhaj (methodology), hijrah (migration), jihad (holy Islamic war), and jama’ah

(Islamic congregation). It talks about the name of the magazine, “It is taken from the area named

Dabiq in the northern countryside of Halab (Aleppo) in Sham. This place was mentioned in a

hadith (the oral traditions attributed to the Prophet Muhammad) describing some of the events of

the Malahim (what is sometimes referred to as Armageddon in English). One of the greatest

battles between the Muslims and the crusaders will take place near Dabiq.”8

ISIS’ ideological propaganda is based on a myth that Allah’s Messenger had said, “The Hour

will not be established until the Romans land at al-A’maq or Dabiq (two places near each other

in the northern countryside of Halab). Then an army from al-Madinah of the best people on the

earth at that time will leave for them. When they line up in ranks, the Romans will say, ‘Leave us

and those who were taken as prisoners from amongst us so we can fight them.’ The Muslims will

say, ‘Nay, by Allah, we will not abandon our brothers to you.’ So they will fight them. Then one

third of them will flee; Allah will never forgive them. One third will be killed; they will be the

best martyrs with Allah. And one third will conquer them; they will never be afflicted with fitnah

(a broad term signifying temptation, strife, distress). Then they will conquer Constantinople.

ISIS world view is that, “O Ummah of Islam, indeed the world today has been divided into two

camps and two trenches, with no third camp present: The camp of Islam and faith, and the camp

of kufr (disbelief) and hypocrisy – the camp of the Muslims and the mujahidin everywhere, and

the camp of the Jews, the crusaders, their allies, and with them the rest of the nations and

religions of kufr, all being led by America and Russia, and being mobilized by the Jews.”9

8 Dabiq, Vol 1, Introduction Pg 4 9 Dabiq, Vol 1, A Call to Hijrah, Pg 11

5

In

Figure 1: ‘Why we hate you’ (Dabiq, 2016)

this ideological backdrop, the ISIS exhorts Muslims to migrate to Sham (a broad area including

Syria).10 11 They use the term hijrah (migration) which is a reminder of Prophet Mohammed’s

own hijrah from Medina to Mecca. ISIS literature reads, “Therefore, rush O Muslims to your

state. Yes, it is your state. Rush, because Syria is not for the Syrians, and Iraq is not for the

Iraqis. The Earth is Allah’s. {Indeed, the earth belongs to Allah. He causes to inherit it whom He

10 McCants, William. The ISIS apocalypse: The history, strategy, and doomsday vision of the Islamic State.

Macmillan, 2015. 11 Al-Tamimi, Aymenn Jawad. "The dawn of the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham." Current Trends in Islamist

Ideology 16 (2014): 5.

6

wills of His servants. And the (best) outcome is for the righteous} [Al-A’raf: 128, Quran]. The

State is a state for all Muslims. The land is for the Muslims, all the Muslims. O Muslims

everywhere, whoever is capable of performing hijrah to the Islamic State, then let him do so,

because hijrah to the land of Islam is obligatory.”

“We make a special call to the scholars, fuqaha (experts in Islamic jurisprudence), and callers,

especially the judges, as well as people with military, administrative, and service expertise, and

medical doctors and engineers of all different specializations and fields. We call them and

remind them to fear Allah, for their emigration is wajib ayni (an individual obligation), so that

they can answer the dire need of the Muslims for them. People are ignorant of their religion and

they thirst for those who can teach them and help them understand it.”

One of the prime goals of ISIS is the creation of a Sunni Islamic State. It has claimed itself as a

Caliphate under its Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who claims his ancestry up to Prophet

Mohammed. As the Caliph, he demands allegiance of all Muslims across the world, something

existing Islamic governments fear. ISIS also believes that all religions who agree with

democracy have to die.12 The logic being that humans cannot frame laws because Allah has

already done that through his messenger in the form of Sharia.13 And this has scared many

Islamic countries as the ISIS in its manifesto titled ‘This is the Promise of Allah’ claims, "The

legality of all emirates, groups, states and organizations becomes null by the expansion of the

Khilafah's authority and arrival of its troops to their areas."14

The entire propaganda of Jehad and apocalypse seems to be working positively for ISIS as the

number of fighters landing in Iraq and Syria grows. The Soufan Group conducts a periodical

assessment of foreign fighters coming into Syria and Iraq and has estimated that, in December

2015, between 27,000 and 31,000 people had traveled to join the Islamic State and other violent

extremist groups from at least 86 countries. Their first survey in June 2014 had identified

approximately 12,000 foreign fighters and nearly eighteen months later, despite sustained

12 Withnall, Adam. "Iraq crisis: Isis declares its territories a new Islamic state with 'restoration of caliphate' in

Middle East." The Independent Independent Digital News and Media, n.d. Web. 29 Nov. 2016. 13 Withnall, Adam. "ISIS: The First Western Journalist Ever to Be given Access to the 'Islamic State' Has Just

Returned – and This Is What He Discovered." The Independent. Independent Digital News and Media, n.d. Web. 29 Nov. 2016.

14 https://azelin.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/shaykh-abc5ab-mue1b8a5ammad-al-e28098adnc481nc4ab-al-shc481mc4ab-22this-is-the-promise-of-god22-en.pdf (Nov 4, 2016)

7

international effort to contain the Islamic State and stem the flow of militants traveling to Syria,

the number of foreign fighters more than doubled.15

Figure 2 ISIS Controlled Territory (BBC 2016)

15 FOREIGN FIGHTERS: An Updated Assessment of the Flow of Foreign Fighters into Syria and Iraq, The Soufan

Group http://soufangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/TSG_ForeignFightersUpdate3.pdf (Nov 29, 2016)

8

Indians in Sham

According to The Soufan Group’s report16, in November 2015, 23 Indian nationals were fighting

alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria. There is only one known case of an Indian returning, that of

Arif Majeed who left for Syria with three other friends from the western Indian state of

Maharashtra. While nothing has since been heard about these three, with help from Government

of India, Arif returned to India in November 2015 and is in prison since then. He had spent six

months and reportedly, decided to find his way back after he suffered a bullet injury. Majeed told

the investigators that, "Only after I begged them, I was taken to a hospital. I was treating myself,

but the injury was worsening as there was no proper medication or food available in the camps.

There was neither a holy war nor any of the preachings in the holy book were followed. ISIS

fighters raped many a woman there."17

In July 2016, it came to light that at least 11 persons from the South Indian state of Kerala

including women and children were in ISIS controlled territory.18 In all of 2016 more than 35

persons have been arrested for having become a member of a banned organization- ISIS. They

too could have migrated to Sham area or would have planned and launched terror operations on

Indian soil.19

The ISIS released a 22 minute video in April, 2016 featuring three Indian born young men

speaking from ISIS controlled area. They acknowledged that they are in Sham and gave an

insight into their plans. While saying that they were really happy and satisfied in a land run

strictly according to Sharia law and hated India, the land where people worshipped animals and

trees, they would certainly return, but to invade. They would come on horseback with swords in

their hands to slaughter the kafirs (non-believers). With the mounting pressure on ISIS and it

16 New York based, Soufan Group provides strategic security intelligence services to governments and

multinational organizations. 17 “I Cleaned Toilets While in ISIS, Areeb Majeed Tells NIA - Times of India.” The Times of India, 30 Nov. 2014,

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/I-cleaned-toilets-while-in-ISIS-Kalyan-youth-Areeb-Majeed-tells-NIA/articleshow/45328623.cms.

18 Surendran, Vivek. “ISIS Recruits from Kerala: 11 out of 22 Missing Keralites Suspected to Be in Syria.” India Today, 11 July 2016, indiatoday.intoday.in/story/isis-kerala-recruitment-syria-kasargod-pinarayi-vijayan/1/712168.html.

19 Surendran, Vivek. “ISIS Recruits from Kerala: 11 out of 22 Missing Keralites Suspected to Be in Syria.” India Today, 11 July 2016, indiatoday.intoday.in/story/isis-kerala-recruitment-syria-kasargod-pinarayi-vijayan/1/712168.html.

9

losing territory, many of its foreign fighters are returning home to continue Jihad on home

territory.20 Return of these Indian fighters, however small their numbers, can prove to be a

substantial problem for India.

Figure 3: Foreign Fighters by Region

Source: Soufan Group Report December 2015: An Updated Assessment of the Flow of Foreign

Fighters into Syria and Iraq

20 “Warning THOUSANDS of ISIS Jihadis Will Return to Europe.” Express.co.uk, 13 Nov. 2016,

www.express.co.uk/news/world/731892/ISIS-jihadis-could-return-home-Europe-defeat-Mosul-terror-Belgian-minister. (29 Nov. 2016)

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CHAPTER 2: ISIS AND INDIA

What are ISIS’ strategic objectives for India? Evidence suggests that the Indian sub-continent

could be their next big target. A document titled, "A Brief History of the Islamic State Caliphate

(ISC): The Caliphate According to the Prophet" recovered in Pakistan, recommends that the next

big Islamic State (ISIS) target in the region should be India. And this would be achieved by

uniting all jihadi groups under its leadership who would not just aim for occasional strikes but

would launch a full-fledged attack. The intensity of the challenge is immense. Given India’s size

and strategic position increasing its influence in India would magnify the Islamic State's stature.

Terror organizations use an Islamic concept called Ghazwa-e-Hind (Final Battle for India) to

propel jihad in the Indian sub-continent. It is an Islamic term mentioned in some hadiths (the oral

traditions attributed to the Prophet Muhammad) predicting a final and last battle in India and as a

result, a conquest of the whole Indian sub-continent by Muslim warriors. Invoking divine

support a South Asian ISIS member proclaimed in an online document, “our struggle is ongoing

and Insha’Allah after defeating Pakistan Army, we won’t just stop in Pakistan rather we shall

continue our advance into Kashmir and India until the laws of Allah are implemented globally

and the whole world comes under the rule of one Muslim Khalifah”.21 22

The ISIS mouthpiece, Dabiq’s 12th edition dealt extensively with “The Revival of Jihad in

Bengal, With the Spread of the Light of the Khilafah”. ISIS detailed its plans for Bengal

(Bangladesh) by first uniting existing terror groups saying that, “The mujahidin of Bengal

realized that there was no room for blind partisanship towards any organization once the

Khilafah had been declared and that there was no longer legitimacy for any independent jihad

organization, whether “Jama’atul Mujahidin,” “Al-Qaida,” or any other group. Thus, the sincere

men from the various jihad groups rushed to support the Khilafah and join the ranks of its

soldiers in Bengal.” The results could quickly be seen in its high profile attack in a restaurant in

the diplomatic area of Dhaka on July 1, 2016 during the Islamic month of Ramadan.

ISIS’ plans do not end with Bangladesh. It has grand designs for entire Indian sub-continent.

Abu Ibrahim al-Hanif, the ISIS Emir (head) in Bangladesh said in an interview that, “Bengal is

21 Ihya-e-Khilafat Magazine, Issue 1 22 Haqqani, Husain. “Prophecy &Amp; the Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent.” By Husain Haqqani, Hudson Institute,

www.hudson.org/research/11167-prophecy-the-jihad-in-the-indian-subcontinent. (29 Nov, 2016)

11

an important region for the Khilafah and the global jihad due to its strategic geographic position.

Bengal is located on the eastern side of India, whereas Wilayat Khurasan (a historical region

incorporating parts of modern-day Afghanistan and Pakistan) is located on its western side.

Thus, having a strong jihad base in Bengal will facilitate performing guerilla attacks inside India

simultaneously from both sides and facilitate creating a condition of tawahhush (a situation of

management of savagery of non-believers23) in India along with the help of the existing local

mujahidin there, until the soldiers of the Khilafah are able to enter with a conventional army and

completely liberate the region from the mushrikin (polytheists), after first getting rid of the

‘Pakistani’ and ‘Afghani’ regimes, insha’allah”. Also, jihad in Bengal is a stepping-stone for

jihad in Burma.24 Are these words from a holed-up terrorist or the strategic vision of a far-

sighted political organization? India’s location between two increasingly unstable Muslim

neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh, makes it the next probable ISIS target. Can ISIS’ repeat its

success in the Indian sub-continent? There is a need to understand and analyze before taking this

threat at its face value.

ISIS achieved unparalleled success, which eventually led to its control over large areas in Iraq

and Syria because it had substantial support from the Sunni minority in Iraq, which felt

dispossessed of power, prestige and influence within the governing structure of the country. This

also led to support from major Sunni leaders and the leftover elements of Saddam Husain’s

army. With local support it could raise funds and find the professional military leadership and

develop the potential for controlling vast territories (at its highest, ISIS controlled more area than

that of UK!) particularly, the oil rich region making it the richest terrorist group in the world. As

it rose swiftly, other fundamentalist and radical elements joined it as they saw it as the true

inheritor of the Islamic Caliphate. Its deft use of social media and the internet drew fighters and

support from across the world, including Europe and US.25 26 The areas where ISIS rolled out

were strife torn, unstable and, falling. ISIS could fill the power vacuum and establish control in

Iraq, Syria and some parts of Afghanistan.

23 Weiss, Michael, and Hassan Hassan. ISIS: Inside the army of terror. Simon and Schuster, 2015, Chapter 3:

Management of Savagery 24 Dabiq, 14 Edition 25 Klausen, Jytte. "Tweeting the Jihad: Social media networks of Western foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq." Studies

in Conflict & Terrorism 38.1 (2015): 1-22. 26 Shane, Scott, and Ben Hubbard. "ISIS displaying a deft command of varied media." New York Times 30 (2014).

12

Let us relate these factors with ISIS’ envisioned expansion into India and analyze its chances of

success. Since India does not suffer any of the vulnerabilities ISIS exploited in the areas which

are now under its control, its chances of ‘establishing a Caliphate’ are non-existent. However,

this is not to suggest that it cannot create and sustain a terror campaign. It could employ a

strategy that does not focus on seizing and controlling territory. Their modus operandi could be

based on a different set of principles. It could amalgamate the existing Islamic terror outfits and

focus their combined energies against the Indian state. It could receive support from Pakistan’s

Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) speeding up the process of the coming together of mujahidins of

various hues creating a symbiotic relationship between the two.

India’s concern is that terror groups like ‘Indian Mujahidin’ have merged themselves with ISIS

and some of its operatives were seen in a recent video espousing its cause. The Indian

Mujahideen, in turn, was a mutated version of the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI)

which is the largest Islamic radical mobilization India has seen.

However, more effective terror groups in India like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizb-ul Mujahidin have

chosen to go alone ignoring ISIS’ call for Caliphate. The prime reason behind this is that these

anti-India terror outfits are guided and funded by Pakistan, through its Inter- Services

Intelligence (ISI) and ISIS has been running a campaign against the Pakistan government

conducting several large scale attacks in Pakistan in 2016.27

ISIS’ use of propaganda and social media could exploit the alienated members of the Muslim

minority. This has already happened, though to a minuscule degree, as 23 Indian Muslims got

attracted to the idea of migrating to a strife torn region and actually did.28 But more could get

mobilized if they were told that they were to look at targets nearer home, especially in the

aftermath of incidents of communal violence when passions are bound to be high. It should be

borne in mind that India’s biggest strength is its strong roots of liberalism, democracy and

secularism and this makes ISIS’ identified task a hard one.29

27 Masood, Salman. “Pakistan Reels After Attack on Police Training College Leaves 61 Dead.” The New York Times,

25 Oct. 2016, www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/world/asia/quetta-attack-isis-pakistan.html?_r=0. (29 Nov. 2016) 28 Soufan Report 29 Chaddha, Vivek. “ISIS Attack Threat: Why India Should Be Afraid.” DailyO - Opinion News &Amp; Analysis on

Latest Breaking News India, 2 Aug. 2015, www.dailyo.in/politics/isis-islamic-state-jihad-terrorism-gurdaspur-attack-cia-saddam-hussein-isi-shia-sunni/story/1/5403.html. (29 Nov. 2016)

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For the first time, above the surface presence of ISIS in India came to light when security

agencies led by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) began arresting its operatives in

January 2016. By August, they had arrested more than 35 individuals from across the country.

Jamal Malik recounted that they had been recruited online employing a five step process. First,

these persons, mostly young men, were drawn to the jihadi theme through facebook pages. Once

they were making vitriolic remarks, they received ‘friend requests’ and were drawn into a one-

to-one chat. Third, after a couple of months, they moved to lesser known but more secure

communication apps like ‘Telegram’ and ‘Signal’ where their online handler brought them

together into an online micro community. Fourth, the virtual community met physically and

identified targets and the resources required to hit them. The last stage would have been one of

actual attacks before which they were arrested.30 The handler, one Shafi Armar, had named the

group ‘Junood al-Khalifa fil Hind’ and assigned organizational positions like Emir (Chief)

Nayab Emir (Deputy), Emir-e-Maliyat (Finance), Emir Askare (Operations), Emir-e-Raabta

(Communications in-Charge) and Emir-e-Shariyo Dawati (Recruitment) to the youngsters.

Interestingly, none of them were victims of a communal riot or had studied in a Madarssa

(Islamic seminary) but were from fairly liberal Muslim families. 31

Why has ISIS grown at a slow pace in India as compared to say, neighboring Bangladesh? Have

India’s inherent strengths and government policies worked or is it that the intelligence is weak

and hijrat (migration) of operatives is going on undetected? Indian security agencies do not have

easy and seamless access to databases of immigration, visas, airlines records, etc and hence, it is

quite possible that some people might have joined ISIS in Syria but haven’t appeared on the

radar of Indian agencies. Similarly, some people from the large Indian diaspora in the Middle

Eastern countries could have joined ISIS for some time and returned to their work, totally un-

noticed by law enforcement agencies of both countries. On the other hand, the Indian version of

Islam is more Sufi than Salafi. Its liberal and syncretic form is more tolerant than the hardline

30 Sandhu, Kamaljit Kaur. “Reached Sudan, Joining ISIS: Indian Recruits Text to Dad Key Evidence for NIA.” India

Today, 25 May 2016, indiatoday.intoday.in/story/exclusive-nia-to-file-first-chargesheet-against-isis-recruit-mohammed-naseer/1/676950.html. (29 Nov. 2016)

31 Malik, Jamal, ed. Madrasas in South Asia: teaching terror? Routledge, 2007

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version prescribed by the ISIS and hence is, in all likelihood, found less attractive by ‘saint

worshipping’ Indian Muslims32.

CHAPTER 3: POLICY PRESCRIPTION:

Social Integration

India’s biggest strength is that it has a sizeable Muslim population (14.2 %)33 that has lived with

other religious communities side by side for centuries. People from different religions can’t

usually be distinguished from each other by their physical attributes, language or, attire. A highly

syncretic culture has evolved and a liberal version of Islam in the form of Sufism appeared in

medieval times and found followers among all religions and communities.34 This continues to

this day in the form of common customs and even common names.

Asish Nandy expresses his view that ‘many of the ethnic identities in India have bi-cultural

identities and he uses the report ‘People of India’ published by the Anthropological Survey of

India to prove that many in India even today continue to see themselves as having a plural self.

Many communities consider themselves simultaneously as Hindu and Buddhist, Hindu and

Muslim, and Hindu and Christian. He says, “It seems to be the case of a society where identities

are cross-cutting and the ‘others’ are telescoped into one’s own self, where none of the identities

can be adequately depicted or defined without taking into account some other.” Nandy further

states that the religious identities were blurred due to the effect of cosmopolitan living together

of many communities. 35 On similar lines, JJ Roy Burman argues in his book Hindu-Muslim

Syncretic Shrines and Communities that, “In India, many communities have dual identities in

terms of religion”.36

Charles Stewart and Rosalind Shaw write about the politics of religious synthesis and say, “The

center of Hindu-Muslim syncretism in India is ‘the shrine of the Sufi saint'. There are thousands

of them all over India, and both Hindus and Muslims worship the saints who are buried in the

32 Titus, Murray T. "Mysticism and Saint worship in India." The Muslim World 12.2 (1922): 129-141. 33 Source: Census India 2011 34 Aḥmad, Azīz. Islamic modernism in India and Pakistan, 1857-1964. issued under the auspices of the Royal Institute of International Affairs by Oxford UP, 1967. 35 Nandy, Ashis.The Multiverse of Democracy: Essays in Honour of Rajni Kothari, Sage Publications, 1996 36 Burman, JJ Roy. Hindu-Muslim Syncretic Shrines and Communities, Mittal Publications

15

tombs.”37 They add that defenders of saint worship deny that it is syncretic. Their defence is

based on the claim that it is an orthodox practice, in continuity with the Islamic past38 and

‘tolerance and harmony’ among Hindus and Muslims is a happy but perhaps, unintended

consequence. Influenced by the Arab reformist movements of the Wahhabis, a number of

movements opposing saint worship developed in nineteenth century India but the number of

devotees paying obeisance to Sufi shrines only kept growing3940.

Vast majority of India’s Muslims remain unaffected by Wahhabism, and this is one of the prime

factors for the ISIS not being able to find much fertile soil in this country.

The high level of social integration is valuable and the Indian government and all communities

need to work together to strengthen this. In India, a Muslim citizen can aspire and succeed at

virtually anything. India has had Muslim Presidents, captains of its hockey and cricket teams

and, CEOs of largest companies. The cultural integration and acceptability is most visible in the

form of its biggest stars of the Hindi film industry, who happen to be a bunch of ‘Khans’. Urdu

and Hindi are virtually the same language using different scripts and classical music of the

subcontinent cannot be separated into Hindu or Muslim traditions.

In some areas ghettoization is becoming visible. Localities, usually in the old central parts of

historical cities are becoming polarized into Muslim and Hindu areas. This needs to be checked

by creating awareness among the citizens to become more inclusive and discourage the tendency

of some high rise housing blocks from becoming home to people from only one religious belief.

In some states, for example Gujarat, a law41 have been framed to prevent a Hindu from selling

his house to a Muslim, and vice versa, to prevent polarization in identified areas. This has been

able, to an extent, prevent the slow ‘ethnic cleansing’ that had been happening in some areas.

This law could be extended to more areas so that ghettoization is stemmed.

37 Charles Stewart & Rosalind Shaw: Syncretism/ Anti-Syncretism: The Politics of Religious Synthesis 38 Fusfeld, Warren Edward. "The shaping of Sufi leadership in Delhi: the Naqshbandiyya Mujaddidiyya, 1750 to 1920." (1981). 39 Gaborieau, Marc. "A Nineteenth-Century Indian ‘Wahhabi’Tract Against the Cult of Muslim Saints: Al-Balâgh al-Mubin." Muslim Shrines in India: Their Character, History and Significance (1989): 198-239. 40 Gaborieau, Marc. "Criticizing the Sufis: the Debate in Early Nineteenth Century India.”." Islamic Mysticism Contested: Thirteen Centuries of Controversies and Polemics (1999): 452-67. 41 Gujarat Prohibition of Transfer of Immovable Property and Provision for Protection of Tenants from Eviction from Premises in Disturbed Areas Act, 1991

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The media has a central role in encouraging social integration and it can do so by not just

reporting terrorism, but also regularly reporting stories of the contribution Muslims have made to

the economy, polity and, culture of the country, it can. The social media is more instrumental in

framing public opinion and there is an urgent need to counter the jihadi propaganda which is

available plentifully on the net.

Counter Radicalization

Increasing the level of social integration and mutual respect among religious communities is

necessary to end the real and perceived alienation among Muslims. The leaders, by showing a

genuine political will to win hearts and minds of the Muslims, could halt their drift towards the

radical extreme. As reported by The Economic Times, the small number of persons who were

identified as ones drifting towards ISIS revealed during police interviews that their radicalization

was initiated by inflammatory videos of jihadi leaders based in Pakistan. Baited by them, they

got attracted to facebook pages on the jihadi leaders and organizations. Gradually, they were

spotted by recruiters who brought them together into micro-groups who met periodically and

were planning a strike. These candidates were not social misfits, wayward teens or riot victims,

yet they felt attracted to the jihadi propaganda.42

204 million smart phones in Indian hands have expanded the reach of electronic propaganda.43 In

the series of arrests across India of ISIS operatives in January 2016 it turned out that the first

exposure to radicalization content were vitriolic videos of terrorist leaders shared through

messaging platforms and over Bluetooth. Earlier, screening of such content secretly would have

been challenging but now it flows easily.

The jihadi narrative selectively quotes from the Islamic scriptures producing expansive and slick

material in print and audio-visual. The counter argument is, sadly, feeble. By strengthening the

counter narrative, the Islamic scholars, clerics and, liberal citizens could play a central role in the

counter-radicalization effort. Ideas about religion have to be debated. This way the deluge of

jihadi ideas can be stemmed with an even bigger, and more appealing, arguments and narrative

from liberal and mainstream Islam. The youngsters on the verge of radicalization could be

42 Tripathi, Rahul, and Krishna Thevar. “Indian Mujahideen Now Returns as ISIS; NIA Arrests 6 Radicals.” The

Economic Times, 23 Jan. 2016, economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/indian-mujahideen-now-returns-as-isis-nia-arrests-6-radicals/articleshow/50690476.cms. (29 Nov. 2016)

43 https://www.statista.com/statistics/467163/forecast-of-smartphone-users-in-india/

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brought back best by the use of Sufi religious content, something Indian Muslims have grown up

with.

Another way of countering radicalization could be through finding ways of blocking the rabid

material on the net. The Indian Information Technology Act 2000, empowers the government to

order for websites and social media pages to be blocked or taken off but they still remain

available on the dark net and keep re-appearing on new sites and blogs. While the most vitriolic

material could be blocked, attempts at trying to block off all such material will be futile. Access

to such internet resources also opens up a window of opportunity to the security agencies of

identifying the two parties involved in the process of radicalization.

By preserving and strengthening India’s democratic and inclusive character it is possible to

insulate the Muslim minorities from any kind of radicalization. Indian Muslim heritage needs to

be promoted more as opposed to Arabised identities being promoted by many Gulf financed

organizations. Women’s spaces and opportunities have to enlarge, not just among Muslims but

all.

There is a need to reach out to the Madrassas to include professional education so that their

alumni acquire skills necessary for the job market. Once the Madrassas education becomes

relevant to the times and promotes inclusiveness, young Muslims will find themselves better

equipped while entering the job market.

As these youngsters enter the booming economy, plummeting unemployment rates should

percolate liberalism and keep the citizens focussed on issues of bread and butter and keep them

away from divisive tendencies of looking for means of putting the other community down.

De-Radicalization

If the counter-radicalization effort fails and some people begin to take steps towards joining the

ISIS, India’s law enforcement and national security agencies would need the capability of

identifying such candidates. But not each of them would deserve to be jailed. The law

enforcement agencies could examine the extent of radicalization and if the person hasn’t moved

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many steps ahead, he could be considered for a deradicalization program. By remembering and

following up those in jail, a serious attempt could be made to de-radicalize them.44

There is many a lesson for India to learn from Indonesia’s highly successful Deradicalization

program which was based on the assumption that through “kindness” even the most radicalized

minds could be brought back to normal family life.4546 Gunaratna (2015) points out that the

second assumption was that only a radical will listen only to another radical. Using moderates to

engage them would be fruitless as they already believe that the ulema (clergy) have failed them

by not doing enough to establish an Islamic state. Therefore, they used reformed radicals to talk

to them.47

India could have a deradicalization program that handles the candidates with empathy treating

them more like victims than hardened green eyed monsters. By preparing, like Indonesia, an

individualized content for each individual and by involving the family, friends and religious as

well as community leaders the program could succeed in bringing them back to ‘normal’ life.

Focussing on the values of equality that the Indian democratic political system aims to achieve

and that even with its flaws, it still offers a wide degree of freedom to its citizens, including

religious minorities would help bring the radicalized youth back to the mainstream and open-

minded style of living.

Parents have a crucial role to play. It has been observed that when the ISIS moves a candidate

towards radicalization, it first sees to it that he or she becomes a puritan Muslim. While this is

perfectly honourable, the exposure to gruesome propaganda and selective use of Islamic

scriptures come next. This is the stage when parents can notice behavioural and attitudinal

changes and can take steps to curb it. Instilling faith in the democratic system and creating a

belief that instances of injustices against the Muslim community would be addressed by the legal

44 Nance, Malcolm W., and Richard Engel. Defeating ISIS: Who They Are, How They Fight, What They Believe. “The

ISIS Radicalization Methodology” 45 Ekici, Sıddık. Building Terrorism Resistant Communities: Together against Terrorism. Amsterdam: IOS, 2009. Pg

259 46 Gunaratna, Rohan, and Mohamed Bin. Ali. "Chapter 4: Current State of Indonesia's Deradicalization and

Rehabilitation Program." Terrorist Rehabilitation A New Frontier in Counter-terrorism. Singapore: Imperial College, 2015. 71-76

47 Schulze. “Indonesia's Approach to Jihadist Deradicalization.” Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/indonesia%E2%80%99s-approach-to-jihadist-deradicalization.

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system and their children need not think about taking the law into their own hands. Similar but

stronger role could be played by their friends and peers.

If the clerics and the community leaders come on board and liberal Muslim leaders reinterpret

Quran and Hadith to expose dark forces like ISIS who selectively quote to promote and justify

violence even against Muslims, the counter argument against radical propaganda could make a

positive impact on radicalized minds.

Develop Interdiction Capability at State and District level

India needs its state law enforcement and national security agencies to develop the capacity and

expertise to interdict terror whenever and where ever it erupts. Evolving networks need to be

identified early. Judicious use of communication interception and raising human intelligence

potential could together help identify the developing modules before they could launch a strike.

The Indian security agencies have been successful in 2016, as they have arrested more than two

dozen persons who were in the formative stages of creating an active module with the ultimate

objective of launching terrorizing crimes. But there could be many more in the offing. At least 11

persons from the South Indian state of Kerala have migrated to the Sham area of Iraq and Syria

in the summer of 2016.48

Police and security agencies need to work unbiasedly, take action based purely on evidence.

Giving up its old methodology of fake encounters (illegal executions) it has taken a positive step

forward by strictly going by the evidence and in many cases choosing not to book a person and

treating him like a victim and enlisting for an organized deradicalization effort.

While the federal government has created a counter terror unit called National Security Guards,

not many states and their districts have setup SWAT or similar teams to handle the first impact

of a terror strike. It has become imperative to invest the time, energy and, money and create such

special units capable of handling such terrorist challenges.

It is also necessary that the court trials of all incidents of terror and communal crimes move

swiftly and justice is delivered. This also applies to incidents of communal violence which

48 Surendran, Vivek. “ISIS Recruits from Kerala: 11 out of 22 Missing Keralites Suspected to Be in Syria.” India

Today, 11 July 2016, indiatoday.intoday.in/story/isis-kerala-recruitment-syria-kasargod-pinarayi-vijayan/1/712168.html. (29 Nov. 2016)

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constitute an irritant to the minority and are often mentioned in the radical propaganda. A well-

functioning justice sector and a firm ‘rule of law’ are necessary tools for countering

radicalization and preventing people from contemplating delivering justice themselves.

International Cooperation

India has suffered export of terror from its neighbour Pakistan for decades but the ISIS

phenomenon is uniquely different as it involves trans- continental movement of people, funds

and, ideas. An international alliance is necessary to prevent the spread of international terrorism

which has swiftly learnt to leverage information technology to recruit, motivate and, organize

new members. Earlier terror organizations could not interact often and they seldom organized

large meetings of their leaders. But ISIS uses slick media productions and messaging apps to

organize itself. The outcome has been visible in both lone wolf attacks and organized large scale

violent outbreaks across the world. India is under grave threat.

It is not possible for any state to defend itself in the prevailing environment. ISIS moves its

operatives, funds and, weapons across the world using the chinks in aviation security and

customs processes. The police can find itself suddenly facing an enormous threat. It is possible to

minimize this only through extensive cooperation on financial flows, intelligence, electronic

evidence collection and, police action. In a fast globalizing world terror has also started

globalizing and the common strategy of partner countries should factor this in. ISIS uses religion

as well as false propaganda to attract the disaffected. Participating nations need to develop a

strong rule based order, a robust justice sector and, smart intelligence gathering capacity to

protect their citizens and interests.

A US (and NATO) led approach is not likely to succeed in the present day geopolitics of the

Middle-east. Mearsheimer and Walt argue in ‘A Superior US Grand Strategy’ that, “The United

States should let the regional powers deal with that group (ISIS) and limit its own efforts to

providing arms, intelligence, and military training. ISIS represents a serious threat to them (local

powers) but a minor problem for the United States, and the only long-term solution to it is better

21

local institutions, something Washington cannot provide.” 49 Local solutions with US ‘off-shore

balancing’ is likely to be more effective and resilient.

The United Nations developed a Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy to develop international

cooperation. The strategy is in the form of a resolution and a proposes a Plan of Action which is

composed of 4 pillars-

1. Addressing the conditions conducive to the spread of terrorism

2. Measures to prevent and combat terrorism

3. Measures to build states’ capacity to prevent and combat terrorism and to strengthen the

role of the United Nations system in that regard;

4. Measures to ensure respect for human rights for all and the rule of law as the fundamental

basis for the fight against terrorism.50

If the coalition against terror, which now virtually includes all countries, come together and

establish mechanisms of intelligence sharing, the provisions of the Mutual Legal Assistance

Treaty (MLAT) are strengthened and made swift so that evidence (mostly electronic) is shared

between agencies and, border controls are continuously upgraded and access to passport and visa

databases and their biometric information is put in place ISIS led terror can be curbed. But most

importantly, it must be borne in mind that winning hearts and minds is a better and stronger

strategy when compared to the one based on police making arrests and the military bombing

those it can’t.

49 Mearsheimer, John J. “The Case for Offshore Balancing.” Foreign Affairs, 19 June 2016,

www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-06-13/case-offshore-balancing. (29 Nov. 2016) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-06-13/case-offshore-balancing

50 “UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy | Counter-Terrorism Implementation Task Force.” United Nations, www.un.org/counterterrorism/ctitf/en/un-global-counter-terrorism-strategy. (29 Nov. 2016)

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CONCLUSION:

The ISIS has been able to gain ground in Iraq, Syria and parts of Afghanistan as they are strife

torn areas suffering a governance vacuum. India has its strengths in the form of a liberal and

secular democracy, largely Sufi Muslim population and, a booming economy. Even with sore

points like mass killings in communal riots and under representation in government jobs, the

Muslim population does not feel attracted to the Wahabi thought. It has grown in a deeply

syncretic culture which absorbs from all the religions and peoples that came to live in the Indian

sub-continent over centuries.

ISIS has a tough task ahead trying to establish its Caliphate in India. Though it talks about

strategically launching a war on India from west (Wilayat Khursan) and east (Bangladesh), this

is easier said than done. But even without getting anywhere close to a Khilafat, ISIS can create

serious problems if it is able to bring together all or most Islamic radical groups under its flag.

The occasional strikes could become a regular string as being witnessed in Pakistan and

Bangladesh. With ISIS beginning to lose territorial control in Sham, it has directed its fighters to

return home and continue jihad the there.51 That could translate into a substantial problem for

India.

To protect itself, India could follow policies that integrate its Muslim community into the social

mainstream by being more inclusive. The sore points of killings during riots and the bringing

down of Babri Mosque in Ayodhya could be substantially addressed if the justice sector moved

swiftly to punish the guilty. To prevent its people from getting radicalized through exposure to

ISIS propaganda the counter- radicalization effort could be strengthened. The counter narrative

needs to be strengthened and made more extensive while the most vitriolic content could blocked

off the internet. The few persons who are known to have radicalized but have not undertaken any

kind of violence could be considered for softer methods and not sent to prisons. By involving

their family, friends and, community it could be possible to bring these people back into normal

domestic life. Even with these measures in place, attacks could still happen and the capability to

deal with them needs to be enhanced by creating interdiction capabilities at the state and district

levels. Finally, international terror requires measures across countries for which mechanisms for

51 Brangham, William. “If ISIS Falls, Where Will Its Fighters Flee?” PBS, 13 Oct. 2016,

www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/isis-falls-will-fighters-flee/. (29 Nov. 2016)

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international cooperation need to be created so that information, intelligence and, evidence flow

seamlessly.

24

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