ISES 2013 - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels
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Transcript of ISES 2013 - Day 3 - Erik Haugane (Former CEO, Det Norske Oljeselskap) - Carbon Fuels
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Carbon fuel is the ultimate driver for progress for billions of people
Doomsday has again been postponed
Erik Haugane, Det norske
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Worrying, worrying, worrying!
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The world is doing increasingly better
3Gapminder.org
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2010 2020 20300
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North America
Europe
Latin America
Asia-Pacific
Africa/Middle East
The standard of living keeps improving
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Bill
ion
peo
ple
Source: McKinsey
1.8 (25%)
3.2
4.9 (55%)
Growing middle class
Shanghai 1980
Shanghai 2010
+270%
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½ second6 hours
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Peak oil – nonsense
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Fantastic, but have you considered the consequences for
the climate?
Now, I have finally figured out how to tame the fire and now we can cook
every day.
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Bio fuel
Fossil fuel
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Climate religion
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Anthropogenic greenhouse
effect
Natural variations and solar activity
Warming up:It will be better,
alternatively marginally worse
Climate
Warming up:Hell’s gates are about
to open
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Climate change, faster than expected?
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Our glaciers have shortened, but when did it start?
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Climate models and reality
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Rhetoric and graphics
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Why is the colour of the temperature curve red after 1980?
We’re still living in the coldest 10% period of the last 10 000 years
We’re living in the coldest 5% period of the last 100 mill. years
What is normal?
Any indications that something is going in the wrong direction?
Or merely wishful thinking by enthusiasts embracing catastrophe scenarios?
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• The quest for better lives requires abundant volumes of cheap energy
• Fossil fuel has the smallest footprint on the earth per kwh created
• The effect of potential human impact on climate change does not impress people less fortunate than the upper middle class.
• Exploitation and use of fossil energy needs to be more effective and environmental friendly
Fossil energy sources will dominate also the coming 50 years
BP2013