SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20061

is there a business case for a European space weather

service?

Systems Engineering & Assessment Ltd (SEA)

Chris Chaloner

Chris.Chaloner@sea.co.uk

ESA Contract: 18459/04/NL/LvH

ESA Study Manager: Alain Hilgers (Alexi Glover)

SEA Study Manager: Tim Woodward

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20062

structure

• study context and objectives• methodology• results• summary and conclusion

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20063

project contextprevious studies

parallel studies2000

other studies<2000

SW applications pilot project

SDA infrastructure

C-B study

SDA = Service Development Activity

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20064

SW mitigation: decision logicSW effect

impact on system?

don’t care

N

accept?

Y

accept

Y

mitigate

N

residual impact

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20065

generic SWS model

raw SW measurements

raw SW measurements

database

data processing and modelling

SWS data products

users

space-basedmeasurements

ground-basedmeasurements

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20066

business case data summary

raw SW measurements

raw SW measurements

database

data processing and modelling

SWS data products

users

LoSscenarios

• SW impacts• SWS benefits

• SWS costs• market data

SWS provider/SWENET SWS user

• measurement costs

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20067

data definition: benefit data

frequency of SW

conditions

risk to

system

effectivenessof

SWSX Xbenefit

SW impacts=

from science +

observations

from users

from providers +

users

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20068

benefits data: by SWS

forecast nowcast postcast

GIC

geomagnetic field

ionosphere

space environment

aurora

1 000M€

100M€

10M€

1M€

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 20069

benefits data: by industry

SWS benefits by Industry: All Users in All Domains

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

1,000.00

10,000.00

Space Ionospheric Ground-Based Tourism Research andEducation

Ben

efit

s (M

€) 2006

2009

2011

2021

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 200610

levels of service: overview

Level of Service

Characteristics Costs Risks

LoS 1 ground-based reliant on worldwide cooperation and continuation of scientific measurement networks

Judged low-medium

LoS 2 LoS1 +

hitch-hiker spacecraft

<10M€/yr

reliant on host spacecraft owner cooperation: difficult with commercial operators – relies on operational institutional host Judged high (commercial)/medium(institutional)

LoS 3 LoS2 +

dedicated spacecraft

<50M€/yr technical risks associated with operating a spacecraft constellation

Judged medium

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 200611

net benefits

• LoS1– relies on continuation of

scientific networks– provides nowcasts

• LoS3– has low external

dependencies– is more costly– provides forecasts– larger benefits

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Net

Ben

efit

(M

€)

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Year

Net

Ben

efit

(M

€)

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Net

Ben

efit

(M

€)

LoS1: ground based

LoS2: hitchhiker

LoS3: dedicated satellites

SW CBA, ESWW, Brussels, Nov 200612

conclusion

• costs are relatively straightforward• benefits much more difficult to quantify

– some benefits are strategic and unquantifiable• benefits split 50:50 between nowcasts and forecasts• as usual:

– small initial investment brings large benefits– but even the largest system has benefit:cost of ~5:1