Is the world getting to be a more hazardous place?

Professor Adrian McDonald

University of Leeds

Structure

• Some general principles

• Flooding

• Fire

• Fisheries

• Ecology

Real or perceived?

• Unchanged hazards

• Improved observation

• Improved recording

• Improved communication

Definitions

•HazardA danger or prospect of harm

•Risk, vt. Exposure to mischance.

•Management, n. Trickery, deceitful connivance.

Risk is quantified hazard

• Probability

• X

• Consequence

• = RISK

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Num

ber o

f Eve

nts

Avalanches/landslides

Droughts/famines

Earthquakes

Extreme temperatures

Floods

Forest/scrub fires

Volcanic eruptions

Wind storms

Other natural disasters

Reported Disasters IFRC 2001

Floods

Third World and First World

• Impacts in the first world cost money. • Impacts in the third world cost lives.

But• 3rd world flooding is also an opportunity

– Crop diversity– Crop security

These conclusions come from field studies by Matt Chadwick of the 1998 floods in India.

Population

• Even if the hazards remain the same, the impacts will increase as the population increases and the value at risk increases

YEAR PEOPLE

AD1 300

1750 800

1900 1650

1970 3678

2000 6199

Urbanisation

• The world is becoming increasingly urbanised. People and property are becoming increasingly concentrated and perhaps divorced from escape options.

Flooding

Is there evidence that flooding is getting worse?

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

1921

-193

0

1931

-194

0

1941

-195

0

1951

-196

0

1961

-197

0

1971

-198

0

1981

-199

0

1991

-200

0

Dec

adal

ly-a

vera

ged

an

nu

al p

reci

pit

atio

n (

mm

) Data from the River Ouse

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

18

81

-18

90

1891

-190

0

19

01

-19

10

1911

-192

0

19

21

-19

30

1931

-194

0

19

41

-19

50

1951

-196

0

19

61

-19

70

1971

-198

0

19

81

-19

90

1991

-200

0

De

ca

da

lly a

ve

rag

ed

an

nu

al m

ax

imu

m

flo

od

s (

m a

bo

ve

New

lyn

)

05

101520253035404550

18

81

-18

90

18

91

-19

00

19

01

-19

10

19

11

-19

20

19

21

-19

30

19

31

-19

40

19

41

-19

50

19

51

-19

60

19

61

-19

70

19

71

-19

80

19

81

-19

90

19

91

-20

00

Nu

mb

er

of

pe

ak

s o

ve

r 8

.05

8 m

th

res

ho

ld

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1965 1975 1985 1995

Hydrological year

An

nu

al r

ain

fall

(mm

)

To summarise

• Hidden in a time series of more variable

annual rainfall totals is a picture of

• declining rainfalls yet

• bigger floods

• more floods

Fires

Good intentions?

The fire story

• 2002 was a typical fire year in Canada compared against the ten year average. Canada recorded 7,824 fires destroying 2,757,174.91 hectares.

Reaction has been to contain fire

• Firebreaks

• Water bombers

Response

• Rapattack teams (smokejumpers)

• Firecrews

• Aim is control within an acre

Adverse reaction

• Fires are natural

• Now with a 20 year history of rapid response, enlarged fuel store

• Current fires are bigger and hotter. From 10 to 50 1‘000 KW/m flame front

Cause and EffectEvery action has a consequence

In forest operations that consequence may not be seen for a generation

Fireweed may compete with forest regrowth. Fireweed will attract insects, grazers and predators.

Sproat Lake, Vancouver Island 1978. Old growth Douglas Fir consumed 1967

by 7,000 ha Taylor River fire

Natural Regeneration. Snag trees remain

Fisheries

Sustainable yield

Effort

Cost

Catch

Value

Catch capacity

The development of the potential of a fleet to catch fish. It is a measure of capability rather than actual catch.

Development of Catch Capacity

• Spear

• Hook

• Boat

• Speed

• Experience

• Communication

• Detection

• Interpretation

• Storage

• Technology

Regulation

• Quotas

• Implementing the quota

• By-catch

• Reality