IS THE SOLUTION OF THE ARMED CONFLICT IN

COLOMBIA THE BEGINNING OF A MORE VIOLENT ERA?

Maria Lucia Uribe

Geneva

21 November 2005

HAVE YOU HEARD ABOUT

COLOMBIA?

WHAT IS THE FIRST THOUGHT COMING TO YOUR MIND WHEN YOU

HEAR THE WORD “COLOMBIA”?

• Is the first producer of cocaine in the world (57% of world production)

• Has the oldest guerrilla conflict (more than 40 years old)

• Has the biggest number of kidnappings in the world (3000 in 2002/2000 in 2003).

• Has the largest number of forced displaced people (207.607 in 2003/287.581 in 2004)

COLOMBIA CERTAINLY…

• Has around 5 million people living in other countries, out of a population of 40 million.

• Has more than 800 terrorist acts per year.

• Has more than 20.000 kids involved in child prostitution.

• Has 2.7 million kids out of the educational system.

• Has a huge number of violations of human rights.

IT IS TRUE WHAT YOU HEAR ABOUT

COLOMBIABUT

IT IS NOT FAIR TO KNOW ONLY HALF OF

THE TRUTH

Because Colombia also proudly:

• Is the fourth biggest country in Latin America (Size of France, Spain and Portugal together).

• Has the oldest democracy in Latin America (L.A). (The most stable one)

• Was the strongest and most stable economy during the 20th century in L.A.

• Has never experienced hyperinflation or defaulted on its international debts.

• Is the only country in South America to have both Pacific and Caribbean Coast.

• Is the second country in the world in terms of biodiversity.

• Is the world largest producer of emeralds (60%).

• Is one of the most ethnically diverse countries in the Western Hemisphere.

• Is the third largest producer of coffee and bananas in the world.

• Is considered to have the largest gold museum on earth. (30,000 pieces)

• Is the first in variety of palms in the world.

• Is the world largest producer of orchids.

• Is the second producer of flowers in the world.

• Ranks fourth in the world in palm oil production, drinking water supplies and nickel.

• Has 47 billion barrels of crude oil reserves.

HOW CAN THE CURRENT MEASURES AND THE INVOLVEMENT OF OTHER COUNTRIES

CHANGE THE COURSE OF THE COLOMBIAN CONFLICT?

HOW CAN THE ARMED CONFLICT DESTROY NATURAL RESOURCES, ECONOMY,

SOCIETY AND DEMOCRACY ?

HOW COULD SUCH A BEAUTIFUL AND PROMISING COUNTRY GET INMERSED IN ONE OF THE WORST AND LONGEST

CONFLICTS IN THE WORLD?

HOW COULD SUCH A BEAUTIFUL AND PROMISING COUNTRY GET INMERSED IN

ONE OF THE WORST AND LONGEST CONFLICTS IN THE

WORLD?

CAUSES

Short History…• 1960’s: Guerrilla groups

emerged.• 1970's: Started as grower and

exporter of marijuana.• 1980's: Escobar/Medellín

cartel formed.• 1990: Grower, processor, trans

shipper of cocaine and heroin. At this stage illicit drug operations and paramilitary groups and guerrillas solidify relationship. Fidel Castro. Inspiration for

guerrillas in Colombia

• 1993 to Present: Pablo Escobar was killed. Large syndicates are replaced by smaller, more vertically integrated trafficking organizations.

• Between 1995 - 1999: Colombian coca cultivation increased from 178,000 acres to 370,000 acres. Decrease since then.

• 1995 - 2005: The guerrilla fills in the void left when the leaders of the cartels disappear from the scene

Why Colombia is involved in drugs business?

• Ideal climate and growing conditions.

• Availability of vast under-populated “frontier land”. Eastern and southern regions of the country.

Why Colombia is involved in drugs business?

• Strategic location near to U.S. markets (Colombia is less than 3 hrs away from the U.S).

• Armed groups support the business.

The Guerrilla Groups (25,000 members)

The Paramilitary Groups (15,000 members)

Who are those armed groups?

These groups consist of less than 40,000 individuals in the country (0,1% of the population), which are located

mainly in rural areas.

GUERRILLA GROUPS

FARC: Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. Approx. 20.000 men, women and children.

ELN: National Liberation Army. Less than 5.000 members.

PARAMILITARY FORCE

• Paramilitary groups. In response to years of guerrilla and drug violence in Colombia, Paramilitary groups emerged. Less than 15.000 members.

Where are guerrillas located?

Reality about Drug Production

• Problem:– Colombia is still the

largest producer of cocaine in the world.• Cultivated mostly in

the southern area.• 2% of the country’s

population lives there.

– Guerrilla groups get funds from drugs.

Source: UNODC

Drug Consumption

• North America and Europe are the major drug consumers.

• An estimated 0.5% or less of drug production stays in Colombia.

USA/EuropeDrug Users Growth

1%

2.3%

0.8%

Cocaine Price (US$/gram)

Source: UNODC

77US$/gram 88US$/gram

CONSEQUENCES

HOW CAN THE ARMED CONFLICT AFFECT

NATURAL RESOURCES, ECONOMY, SOCIETY AND

DEMOCRACY ?

• Source of potential instability for Latin America

• Potential damage of market relations with other countries. (Colombia has solid Exports)

• Agricultural sector is strongly hit

• Holdback foreign investment

• Tourism sector is affected

• Oil sources are threatened

• Brain drain. About 5 million Colombians live abroad.

Economy

THREAT FOR OIL SOURCES

COLOMBIAN EXPORTS

Source: DANE

37,6

18,914,9

0

10

20

30

40

Colombian Exports Destination 2004 (%)

United States

AndeanCountries

European Union

ECOLOGIC/ENVIRONMENTAL

• Damage in the Amazon’s environment.

• Jungles destroyed by the cultivation of coca and the millions of gallons of toxic chemicals (Amazon River).

• Over the last 15 years, the drug business dumped 900,000 tons of toxic waste into the fragile rain forest eco-system (this is equal to 3 times Valdez oil spill).

«The Amazon Basin is under threat from the continued cultivation of coca. The sowing

of one hectare of coca requires the

felling of 3 hectares of virgin forest . In the

last ten years, 1,361,475 hectares

have been deforested in this way.»

• Natural Reserves threaten by guerrilla groups: In the northern region of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, some 40,000 indigenous people (Wiwas, Koguis, Kankuamos and Arhuacos) are struggling to survive and defend their culture.

Democracy• Local and national

elections threaten

• Kidnapping of politicians.

• Guerrillas want to control rural areas.

• Press freedom is restricted.

SOCIETY• About 1000 Colombians lose their lives

every year.

• Displaced people (last 9 years): 3 million. Children comprise approximately half of the internally displaced population.

• Human Rights Watch conservatively estimates that there are 11,000 children in the armed groups in Colombia.

• Indigenous groups in Colombia are in danger of disappearing amid the country's continuing conflict.

Between 2 and 3 million Internally displaced

people

1500 Colombian refugees

4000 Colombian refugees

30.000 Colombianrefugees

HOW CAN THE CURRENT

MEASURES AND INVOLVEMENT OF OTHER COUNTRIES CHANGE THE

COURSE OF THE COLOMBIAN CONFLICT?

MEASURES

• Colombia spends about US 1 billion annually on its struggle against drugs.

• Strength of military presence in rural areas.

• International Cooperation: USA and European Union support.

• Alvaro Uribe’s Administration: Democratic Security Policy and Justice and Peace Law.

1,85%2,11%

2,68%

3,17%3,41%

3,19%3,33%

4,02%

3,58%

1,64%

4,10%

0,0%

0,5%

1,0%

1,5%

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

3,5%

4,0%

4,5%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

*

2006

*

Source: Ministry of Defense

Public force expenditure as % of GDP (1990 - 2006*)

Democratic Security Policy

Long term State policy, focused on

the strengthening of the rule of law in all

the Colombian territory and on the

protection of the rights and liberties

of the civil population. This

policy compromises the State and the whole society.

Four strategic objectives:

• Recover the territorial control • Protect the population• Eliminate the drugs traffic• Responsibility, efficiency and transparency in the administration of resources

JUSTICE PEACE LAW

• IT IS A LAW THAT INTRODUCES JUSTICE AND REPARATION TO VICTIMS.

• IT IS A COMPLEMENT TO EXISTING NORMS IN COLOMBIA THAT SEEK TO

ACHIEVE PEACE

• IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY TO DEACTIVATE A WAR MACHINE THAT HAS CAUSED GREAT DAMAGE IN COLOMBIA FOR

MANY YEARS

SOME RESULTS

Terrorist Acts

Source: Ministry of Defence

ECONOMY GROWS

Other results…

Source: Ministry of Defence

PUBLIC ORDER IMPROVEMENT

30405060708090

100110120

2000

BA

SE

Sep

-02

Nov

-02

Ene

-03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Jul-0

3

Sep

-03

Nov

-03

Jan-

04

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4

Sep

-04

Nov

-04

Jan-

05

Mar

-05

Base: Jan 2001- Aug 2002=100, last 20 months of Pastrana´s administration

Public Security Index, Citigroup (2000 – 2005)

Source: Citigroup

IT IS NOT THE BEGINNING OF A MORE VIOLENT ERA IN

COLOMBIA, IT IS THE BEGINNING OF THE DISARMAMENT OF THE

ILLEGAL GROUPS, THE RECOVERY OF THE COUNTRY

AND ITS ECONOMY, THE INITIATION OF A DIALOGUE WITH

GUERRILLAS AND THE RESTORATION OF THE ORDER.

THE SUPPORT OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS

NECESSARY TO IMPLEMENT POLITICAL MEASURES.

COLOMBIA ALSO NEEDS ASSISTANCE IN FACILITATING THE REINTEGRATION OF DEMOBILIZED PERSONS TO CIVIL SOCIETY AND GREATER SUPPORT IN HELPING THE VICTIMS OF THE CONFLICT

QUESTIONS• What can be other solutions

for the conflict?• How can other countries

support Colombia?• How to avoid the potential enhancement of violation of

Human Rights?

• Flow:- Explanation of the Conflict, causes,

characteristics, main actors. Relation drugs and guerrillas.

- How the conflict affects society, statistics of violence how it is affecting all the good things of Colombia. Human Rights.

- Measures taken by Uribe’s Administration and results, underlining negative effects.

- International Involvement. Possitive effects. What else can be done?

• Important to mention all the details giving more explanation (not only reading), at the end I should mention, shortly and quickly more facts.

• Then during the presentation I will prove how the conflict is damaging the Country which is not a damage only for Colombia but for the world, and how the causes of the conflict also lie on our nature and resources.

• If it damages the world what can the world do for Colombia?

• The current measures will bring for sure more negative effects on human rights? How other countries can support?