IS OSH * FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?

IS OSH* FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?

by J.C. ANDRÉINRS Scientific DirectorateFrance

IPTS – Seville – Spain

* Occupational Safety and Health at work

IPTS – September 2006

Summary

Efficient prevention technologies are few and far between, and rarely infallible. Account taken of this context, the question that arises, if total resignation is excluded, is one seeking solutions, ways of sharing and mutualisation and, in short, finding ways forward that allow a degree of confidence to be restored between all the actors of work.

In this respect, we need to anticipate more and more on the ways of preservating health and safety of workers : this demand linked to the mission of OSH institutes leads to the development of forecasting activities in order to "think the future" or to project the long term into the present, the rule being to imagine "all" the hypotheses.


Several groups at EU level are involved in this general activity ( French National expertises, PEROSH members, Topic Centre "Risk Observatory" acting for the Bilbao Agency,....).The aims of such projects are encouraging initiative ahead of its time, a carrier of collective changes at work accepted (able) by the social body. This means making the experiment "visible", routing them in professional practices and recreating the vision that they carry.

First results will be presented linked to the analysis of "heavy trends" which can modify the workers environment and which lead to a more holistic approach of the OSH system. But, the author will also present some constraints induced by the nature of the methodology in use ( to a critical retrospective of the prospective !), interdisciplinary and quality of the expertises, weakness of the connections with innovators, return to practices and the work reality,....


Prevention participates in a myth, in a pool of sense

and traditional values that have determined a set of

practices and social values… And tomorrow ?


ROLE OF OSH INSTITUTES

OSH is a representation field of science and technologyused through non excitemental ways, non excluding pro-cesses, emotional for its trusty return to the world of work for improving working conditions.

Use of scientific knowledge

Collective approaches

OSH Institutes are ETHICAL organizations : associationbetween knowledge and society leading to a better wellbeing at work.


EFFECTS ON OSH INSTITUTES

Responsibility

Independence (political choices, private contracts, …)

Alert on weak-signals

Need for change (avoid dogma…)

Complexity

Interdependences

Anticipation

Debattable use of science (Human control, genetics, nanotechnologies, …)

Irreversible choices (GMO’s, Nuclear plants, globalisation, …)

Time pressure : medias, innovation, employment, financial performance, …)

How to advise stakeholders


Independence – « neutrality »

How to explore weak signals

Prospective, forecasting, anticipation

Relationship between science, society at work and OSH

New methodologies for exploring long term effects

Evaluation

Pro-active role in the definition of a more appropriate model for the society at work ?

Knowledge of the social, economical, political conditions in order to optimize pro-active actions.

How to maintain OSH Institutes legitimacy


No potential

Any force is able to displace the spherical objet

Positive potential Great instability

Negative potentialLarge activation energy in order to go ouside the energy trap

Closed systemInvisibility from outside of any internal actions

Different situations forms


Appearance of new risks (which were partly masked by other priorities) of a complex nature

Fear of the very long term effects Shift from a production society to a leisure and / or

information society / knowledge society Growing individualism Change to the relationship with work Social acceptance of risks Change of time scales (from centuries to months…) Complexity Confidence Ageing

WORRYING TRENDS


NEW TECHNOLOGIES

Transversal (information technology present

everywhere).

Combinational (e.g.: information technology useless

in its present state in a device).

Contagious (irrigation of neighbouring technologies).

Local innovationsand

brake on major changes

Large technological ruptures


Causal system

Retroactive loop system

Recursive system (e.g. ESB, etc.)

PROBLEM OF TIME BASES / SCHEDULES TO RETAIN THE CONFIDENCE OF THE PARTNERS OF ENTERPRISES

ANTICIPATION SO AS TO REDUCE THE GAPS BETWEEN THE COMPLEX ASPIRATIONS OF SOCIETY AND THE

EVOLUTION OF THE FIRM

PREVENTION


Risk perception• dread• managerial incompetence• future risk• blame

Risk perception• dread• managerial incompetence• future risk• blame

Physical consequencesIndividual• follow-up desired• political involvement• intended actionsSocial• group mobilization

Physical consequencesIndividual• follow-up desired• political involvement• intended actionsSocial• group mobilization

Physical consequences- human- environment- place (EU, other,…)- magnitude of the damage- …

Physical consequences- human- environment- place (EU, other,…)- magnitude of the damage- …

Media coverage-number of new stories- durations- half-life of coverage

Media coverage-number of new stories- durations- half-life of coverage

Societal impact- socio-economic- politic- employment- citizen

Societal impact- socio-economic- politic- employment- citizen

Social amplification of risks


TROUBLES IN THE

ANTICIPATION SYSTEM LINKED

WITH RESEARCH


Different steps of translation viewed by the researcher (direct sense)

WORLDTranslation

Laboratory Researcher

Translation

Confined / protected research

Single « manipulable »

Subjects causality

The feedback ?

Laboratisation of the World ?


LACK IN ANTICIPATION FROM

OSH RESEARCH


Changes in times of OSH recognitions linked with MSD


MSD publications per year from Medline linked with prevention

0

20

40

60

80

100

Years

Pu

bli

cati

on

s /

year


ACTIONS IN OSH

FORECASTING


Topic Center « Risk observatory »

Methodology Start 2007 ?

PEROSH Emerging issues ; under progress

National level (EU Level) ; under progress

nano technologies ICT working conditions changes (F)


11

Group project

Emerging risks

Factual data

Search for the keyvariables

Selection of the principal keyVariables - themes

Regulation

Report

Benchmarking

Seminar+ report

22 nn……….

Political choices(outside forecasting project)

Group project Report

Appraisal

Scenarios

General OSH forecasting methodology


11

FIVE

STATEMENTSThe facts

22

33

44

55

Increase complexity of the world of work

Better knowledge of social perception of risks

Overlapping of fields of interest : work / environment / public health

ConsequencesParadigm of action breakdown

- from causal to heuristic- interdisciplinarity- from mastering of risks to precautionary principle- importance of regulations in the future (from regulation to advice) ?

Increase of anticipation- « sentinel » network : emerging risks- prevention at the conception stage- networking- better association with the world of work


What form of work will emerge in the future ?What form of prevention ?How is the gap between the community and the individual to be narrowed ?What are the effects of social alienation on occupational risks ?

Long-term effects on health induced by new technologies .

Complexity and multifactoriality ?

How is information which is both easily perceived and informative to be delivered ?

How can confidence in the partners involved in a company be re-established ?

Etc...

ANTICIPATIONQUESTIONS WHICH HAVE TO BE SOLVED


« Knowledge of the real is a light

that always shines somewhere in

the shadows »

G. BACHELARD

IS OSH * FORECASTING POSSIBLE ?

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