Is Investment - Daily Market Watch 20.05

8/6/2019 Is Investment - Daily Market Watch 20.05

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Market Commentary

Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report.

Global equities advanced after the announcement of better than anticipated

drop in jobless claims data of the US local agenda looks calm today. Further

measures might be on the table to curb the current account deficit according

to dailies. We might see the contribution of fiscal policies following the

general elections which might ease down concerns regarding possible

further pressures on the banking sector. On Wednesday, Turkish equities

were under harsh selling pressure by flow driven activity and a few

international reports highlighting concerns over Turkeys CAD. Accordingly,

underperforming most of the global markets, ISE-100 index lost 2.53%

closing at 63,733 level on Wednesday. Today we expect ISE to show some

reaction to the positive performance of the global markets during the holiday

in Turkey. Opening of the market is likely to be higher around 0.5% and the

index should settle around 64,000 level under the current conditions. In the

bond market morning quotations stand flat at 8.81% and the currency is

stronger at 1.5730.

New measures to curb the CAD might be on the table.

Industry News

Calendar

Corporate News & Trading Ideas

1 million ENKAI shares registered to be sold in ISE

Bagfas received US$6.5mn export order

Sekerbank denies knowledge of possible share sale.

Tav Airports has opened new duty-free shops in RigaAirport

Daily Market Watch

20 May 2011

MSCI Emerging Market Indices, in US$ terms

MSCI Sector Indices Best/Worst Perform ers

Best 5 Daily Worst 5 Daily

Industrl 1.3% Tech Hard&Eqp 0.0%

Consumer Disc r. 1.2% Sof tw r&Srvcs 0.0%

Energy 0.8% Real Estate 0.0%

Utility 0.6% Pharm&Biotech 0.0%

Tel. Svc. 0.6% Retail Index 0.0%

ISE-100 Best / Worst Performers

Best 5 Daily Worst 5 Daily

GOODY 9% BAGFS -7%

AYGAZ 2% EGSER -7%

ITTFH 2% BJKAS -6%

BIMAS 1% MGROS -6%

NTTUR 1% PTOFS -5%

ISE-100 Top 5 by Trading Volume

Ticker Close Daily Vol. (TRY mn)

GARAN 7.04 -4.09% 410

ISCTR 5.06 -2.32% 197MGROS 19.60 -6.00% 111

HALKB 11.95 -3.63% 109

YKBNK 4.15 -2.58% 93

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

14/0

4/2011

21/0

4/2011

28/0

4/2011

05/0

5/2011

12/0

5/2011

MSCI EM Turkey MSCI EM

ENKAI TI:

BAGFS TI:

SKBNK TI:

TAVHL TI:

Market Figures Close Daily 1M ISE-100, TRY 63,733 -2.5% -6.9%

Trading Vol., TRM mn 2,849 -8% -0.5%

MSCI EM Free 1142 0.8% -3.3%

TRLIBOR, 3M% 8.11 0.5 bps 35.5 bps

Benchmark Bond 8.82 0.0 bps 23 bps

Eurobond -2030 5.73 1.4 bps -12.3 bps

US$/TRY 1.5819 -0.25% 4.1%

EUR/TRY 2.2547 0.25% 0.2%

ISE 2011E P/E 11.47

ISE 2012E P/E 10.09

Local Calendar

20/05/2011 Program Defined Central Government Budget-April

23/05/2011 CBRT Expectation Survey (May II period)

Global Calendar Exp. Pri.

20/05/2011 JN:BOJ Target Rate 0,10%

JN:All Industry Activity Index (MoM) -6,1% 0,7%

GE:Producer Prices (MoM) 0,6% 0,4%

GE:Producer Prices (YoY) 6,0% 6,2%

JN:Convenience Store Sales YoY 7,7% EC:Euro-Zone Current Account nsa -9,5B

EC:ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA -7,2B

BZ:IBGE CPI IPCA-15 (MoM) 0,69% 0,77%

EC:Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence -12,0 -11,6


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New measures to curb the CAD might be on the table. According to daily Sabah, further measures to limit the current

account deficit expansion would be on the agenda. The BRSA is likely to step into the game again. Accordingly, Ministry of

Finance would hike the special consumption tax and import duties at least within next three months in the forthcoming period.

The BRSA will put a cap on credit card limits based on earnings of each card holder. Bank specific measures might be an-other issue being discussed. The Ministry of Finance might also elevate the incremental taxes on interest payments to di-

rectly influence the borrowing cost of individuals. Elevated down payments on mortgage loans and/or higher required level of

capital for the banks are listed as further measures those might be implemented by the BRSA. In the long term, the Govern-

ment would establish a strategy in order to curb the dependence to imports of intermediate goods and energy. We do not

expect a significant improvement on the current account deficit front in the short term. It seems CAD to GDP ratio will linger

around 8% in 2011. Variety of policy tools supported with the inclusion of fiscal policies would be addressing the issue much

better and partially release concerns regarding the predictability of pressures on the banking sector.

Industry News


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1 million ENKAI shares registered to be sold in ISE

Bilgi Gulcelik, member of Gulcelik family that owns 28.1% of Enka Insaat,

registered his 1 million nominal shares to be sold in the ISE. The amount

makes 0.05% of the total paid-in capital and 0.3% of the free float shares.

Neutral

Bagfas received US$6.5mn export order

Bagfas received US$6.45mn DAP order to be exported to Romania. The

amount makes roughly 4% of the companys annual top-line. Delivery of

the order will be done in June 2011. Neutral.

Seker denies knowledge of possible share sale. Following reports

suggesting that Bank Turan Alem of Kazakhstan may divest its 34% stake,

Sekerbank denied any knowledge on any action by its shareholders on the

bank, yet.

Enka Insaat

ENKAI TI OP 25% Upside(TRY) Current Target

Price 5.96 7.45

Mcap, mn 13,112 16,380

FF Mcap, mn 1,573 1,966

(x) 2011E 2012E

P/E 15.95 14.91

P/BV 1.82 1.64

EV/EBITDA 9.85 9.16

(TRY) 1M YtD

Avg. Vol. Mn 4.3 9.0

Relative Perf. 3.2 8.5

BAGFS TI NR

(TRY) Current Target

Price 161.50

Mcap, mn 485

FF Mcap, mn 276

(x) 2011E 2012E

P/EP/BV

EV/EBITDA

(TRY) 1M YtD

Avg. Vol. Mn 8.6 14.1

Relative Perf. -3.3 5.0

SKBNK TI MP 39% Upside


Price 1.52 2.11

Mcap, mn 1,140 1,580

FF Mcap, mn 160 221

(x) 2011E 2012E

P/E 5.70 3.85

P/BV 0.72 0.60

P/Deposit 0.14 0.11

(TRY) 1M YtD


Relative Perf. -9.3 -11.1

Bagfas [email protected]

Sekerbank [email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]


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Tav Airports has opened new duty-free shops in Riga Airport

Tav Airports Holding has opened new duty-free shops in Riga Airport with

an investment of US$2mn for the renovation of the stores. The new stores

will span an area of 4,650 m2 and employ more than 100 people. Please

note that Tav Airports also provides the ground handling services of the

airport via the the North Hub Services in which Havas (the subsidary of

TAV Airports) has 50% stake.

TAVHL TI OP 21% Upside


Price 7.54 9.10

Mcap, mn 2,739 3,306

FF Mcap, mn 1,096 1,322

(x) 2011E 2012E

P/E 19.63 13.00

P/BV 2.66 2.12

EV/EBITDA 10.33 8.92

(TRY) 1M YtD


Relative Perf. 6.3 4.4

TAV Airports Holding [email protected]

[email protected]

New ly Announced Capital Increases/Decrease and dividend payme nts (%)

Ticker Rights Issue Bonus Issue Stock Dividend Gross Dividends in Cash Ex-Date Base Price Dividend Yield

GEDIK 30% 20/05/2011 1.88 TL

GOODY 23% 26/05/2011 0.23 TL 0.37%

MRGYO 5%

TSKB 14.29% 24/05/2011

Cash Dividend

Per Share


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F/X Data

As of 18/05/2011 Close Daily YTD

US Dollar 1.5749 0.99 -1.96

Euro 2.2459 0.37 -8.19

Euro/US Dollar 1.4261 0.62 6.82

Equal Weighted Basket 1.9104 0.63 5.97Source: Bloomberg

Change (%)

TRY

CZK

HUF

KZT

PLN

RON

RUB

UAH

ZAR

CNY

INR

ARP

BRL

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2% Daily Performance Against US Dollar(%)

Currency EM currencies painted a mixed picture as they depreciated against the

USD and gained (EMs other than East Europe) value against the EUR.UAH, SGD, and THB were the best performers of the day as they closedflat against the USD and HUF was the worst performer with 0.9% upagainst the USD.

Before the holiday break USDTL had a very calm day. It traded in 1.5805-15860 range parallel to EURUSD parity. USDTRY closed the day at1.5825, EURTRY at 2.2495 and TRY basket at 1.9160. TRY ended theday up 0,03 against the USD, up 0.26 against the EUR and up 0.15against the basket.

On the local front, todays only release will be April Program DefinedCentral Government Budget. On the international front, we have Euro-Zone Current Account (CA), ECB Euro-Zone CA, Euro-Zone ConsumerConfidence and German Producer Prices.

Local Bills and Bond Wednesday, on the eve of Youth and Sports Festival, Turkish local bonds

market painted a mixed picture on short and long maturities. Mostly dueto foreign investors interest, Turkish notes on the long end of the yieldcurve closed the day with value gains. 10-yr maturity fixed coupon noteclosed the day 16bp down at 9.46% comp. 2-yr benchmark note traded ina narrow band of 8.74% 8.84% and closed the day flat at 8.82% comp.

The CBRT has a weekly repo auction redemption of TL 2bn today.

Early quotations in the new benchmark note this morning are 1 bp downat 8.81%comp.

Eurobonds

On Thursday, we observed a flat day for EM Eurobonds . On Wednesdayhowever, EM Eurobonds ended the day with value gains as theexpectations that Greece would go into a full restructuring was losingground. Portugal succeeded to auction EUR 1bln of 2-mo bills at yieldsclose to those of previous auctions. Treasury notes of Greece, Irelandand Spain witnessed a flat day.

On the US front, yields on the US Treasury notes closed the day flat at3.180% as the release of the decrease jobless claims was in line withthe expectations and did not alter markets sentiment.

Despite Except for China, Mexico and Ukraine, EM Eurobonds postedmarginal gains throughout the day. Turkey 2030 benchmark note endedthe day 2 bp down at 5.74% comp. and Turkey 5-yr CDS is trading flat at157/159 levels.

RecommendationsLocal Rates:

15-01-20 Fixed Coupon Note: We continue to like the longer end of thecurve given the carry.

Deposits versus short notes: We do not see any value in the short end ofthe curve and thus recommend investors to prefer deposits instead atlevels around 8.00%-8.50%.

Eurobonds:

7.50% 14-Jul-17 USD (HOLD): We continue to like the issue given itsyield versus similar issues.


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This report has been prepared by Yatrm Menkul Deerler A.. ( Investment) solely for the information of clients of Investment.

Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are

given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies,

investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who

supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be suitable

for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and with the

assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary.

The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital Market

Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT);

various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or

completeness guaranteed.

All information in these pages remains the property of Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in any

way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written permission

of Investment. (www.isinvestment.com)

This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's.

For more information, please visit Capital IQ's web site at www.capitaliq.com.

Most Traded Local Bonds & Bills

T-Bills

TRB070911T19 07/09/11 6 m 6 m 754 0 6 97.724 7.59 7.79 20 8.25 8.25 7.89 0.29 0.003 0.29

TRB200711T14 20/07/11 12 m 12 m 4,292 0 4 8.20 8.20 7.78 0.16 0.001 0.17

Zero Coupon Bonds

TRT200213T25 20/02/13 21 m 22 m 5,646 828 4,557 86.192 9.08 8.79 -3 16 8.20 8.86 8.51 1.69 0.048 1.31

TRT070312T14 07/03/12 10 m 5 y 9,565 164 179 105.850 8.31 8.48 0 21 7.86 9.24 8.49 0.74 0.070 0.80

TRT030811T14 03/08/11 3 m 22 m 11,175 100 618 98.432 7.55 7.78 5 22 7.39 8.34 7.95 0.20 0.019 0.20

Coupon Bearing Bonds

TRT150120T16 15/01/20 8.7 y 10 y 8,798 168 327 107.350 9.25 9.46 -14 -6 9.24 9.84 9.47 5.64 0.002 6.17

TRT290114T18 29/01/14 2.7 y 3 y 4,322 20 31 97.700 8.96 9.27 0 6 8.73 9.40 9.17 2.35 0.000 2.35

TRT100413T17 10/04/13 23 m 3 y 7,903 15 58 102.000 8.84 9.14 12 8 8.49 9.44 9.01 1.67 0.433 1.75

TermOrig.

TermHigh

(%)

Yld Chg

1D

(bp)

Wk

(bp)

Amt

Outstd.(Mil TL)

Instrument Matur ityDaily

Volume(Mil TL)

3 mo

Avg

(%)

Dur. CnvxPVBP

* 100

Weekly

Volume(Mil TL)

Last

Traded

Price

Simple

Yield

(%)

Comp

Yield

(%)

3 mo Range

Low

(%)

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