Is Continuity the Only Remedy?

Preamble

• Cadbury Perk – impulse purchase

• One creative execution on TV for the year

• Financial resources to purchase 2400 GRPs

The Scheduling Dilemma

Continuity?Flighting?

Pulsing?

Blitz?

A Stereotype Across Decades

Continuity

1960

Continuity

1990 2009

Continuity

This got us..

Effect of Wearout On Scheduling

Our Model Dimensionalizes Copy Wearout

1. Repetition

2. Imitation & Obsolescence

3. Restoration

Excessive Media Frequency..

…. Repetition Wearout of Copy Quality

Obsolescence

+

Imitation

.. Leads to Copy Quality Decline

..However, Going off-air

…Restores the Copy Quality!

Having this Theory of Wearout…

• We built a model to assess impact on salience

• Inputs into model– Weekly tracking data on ad and brand salience– Weekly reach numbers in %

Model Structure

Model Technique

• A dynamical model

• Involves solving a system of differential Eqs

• Kalman Filter Optimization

And, Our Investigation…

Led to Some Interesting Results!Over 50 Simulations Explored

S. No

Option J Score

1 Continuous 1683

2 1 week on 1 week off 2451

3 Flighting – 6 weeks on 6 weeks off

2500

4 Blitz – Expend all GRPs in 6 weeks

2050

Flighting 20 - 30% more Effective vs.

Continuity Options

Why Was It So?

• Our Hypotheses on-– Repetition– Obsolescence– Restoration

• Were proven TRUE

• Our Model says in English-– A lot of money Spent making the copy– Scheduling determines its preservation & Efficacy

..Leading to

• Recommendation of Flighting as a strategy

• Continuity was detrimental to awareness!!

• A 20% more Effective annual schedule built– And not just on basis of media efficiencies

Statistically Sound Model..

Transparent & Open Model

What Makes this Work Stand – Out?

1. Advertising Copy Treated as an Asset

2. Tangible 20% potential improvement shown on brand

salience

3. Qualitative & Quantitative Model

4. Resonates with Decision Maker’s Mental Model