Post-Cold War, 1989-2001 (because of in class test, will

complete this lecture next week)

IRPG 833, Lecture 6

OUTLINE

(1)Revision(2)U.S. Foreign Policy and the End of

the Cold War(3)Explaining why the Cold War

ended Peacefully(4)Panama, the Gulf War and the

‘New World Order’

(1) Revision

The Collapse of Détente Carter, Iran and Afghanistan President Reagan and the Second

Cold War President Reagan and the Third

World

(2) U.S. Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold WarIn retrospect, we can now see that the Soviet-type economic and political systems were already beginning their long-term, terminal decline by the 1970s, if not earlierThis decline accelerated in the 1980s, manifesting itself in economic stagnation and growing political instability in Eastern EuropeIn the Soviet Union, Glasnost and Perestroika further unraveled the foundations of the planned economy and hastened its demise

U.S. Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold War

By late 1988, Gorbachev dramatically cut Soviet military spending and announced the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe and AfghanistanBy October 1989, Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia had all overthrown their rulers

U.S. Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold WarThe Bush team reacted cautiouslyNational Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft feared the “clever bear syndrome”, while Vice President Quayle viewed Gorbachev as a “Stalinist in Gucci shoes”

U.S. Foreign Policy and the End of the Cold WarIt was not until the dismantling of the Berlin Wall that Bush fully accepted the reality of the collapse of communism and the end of the Cold War

(3) Explaining why the Cold War ended Peacefully

(1) U.S./Western TriumphalismThe end of the Cold War was said to embody the fulfillment of the strategy devised by Truman and intensified by ReaganThe cumulative effects of Deterrence and Containment had, over time, brought the Soviet Union to its knees Gorbachev’s reforms were manifestations of the limited options that US policy had left himThe end of the Cold War also represented the triumph of US values, and the ‘End of history’ (Francis Fukuyama)

Explaining why the Cold War ended Peacefully

(2) Revisionist TheoriesThe Soviet Union and its satellites were in terminal economic decline regardless of US containment and rollback policies Gorbachev is given more credit for enacting bold, transformative policies that cooled much of the heat generated by Cold War rhetoricThe end of the Cold war is not the end of history, but the closing of one particular chapter of global ideological struggle, which will surely be followed by future onesRegardless, containment was now obsolete, and the question arose of what would replace it?

Explaining why the Cold War ended Peacefully

Here we can say that the Bush administration, and the Clinton administration after it, were, to some extent, groping in the darkClinton’s first Secretary of State, Warren Christopher nicely summed up the problem: “It was easy when we could simply point to the Soviet Union and say that what we had to do was to contain Soviet expansion” (March 22, 1993).

Explaining why the Cold War ended Peacefully

A protracted debate developed about the direction that US foreign policy should take

Use the ‘unipolar moment’ to greatly extend US power and influence in the worldUse the ‘peace dividend’ to enhance prosperity and democracy at home and abroadWithdraw to the traditional isolationist position advocated by the founding fathers, now that the threat of global communism had receded

(3) Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

When faced with new circumstances in a new era, the first instinct of the Bush administration was to reach for those foreign policy instruments upon which they had cut their teeth – the use of unilateral military force, in Panama

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

Bush gave four reasons for invading Panama in December 1989

1. The threat to U.S. personnel in Panama

2. Noriega’s threat to the Panama Canal

3. Noriega’s involvement in drug traffic4. The need to create democracy in

Panama

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

Some have argued that the real reasons lay elsewhere

To exorcise the ‘wimp factor’ from his public imageTo rid Panama of a former ‘asset’ who had become openly defiant of the US To demonstrate to others the US’s determination to use massive military force when it was deemed necessary

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

The use of massive force came barely one year later, when Iraq invaded KuwaitThis followed boundary disputes between the two countries, and Saddam’s failed demands on Kuwait (and Saudi Arabia) to cut its oil production in order to raise the priceThe U.S. Ambassador to Iraq conveyed to Saddam that the U.S. had “no opinion” on the dispute, which he took as giving the Green light for the invasion on August 2, 1990

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

Over the coming months, through the skillful use of diplomacy, the U.S. built a case for using force to eject Iraq from Kuwait, and got the blessing of the Security Council for the use of forceThe U.S. also built a Coalition of 127 countries, including Arab countries, supporting the war against Saddam

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

When the war was eventually launched in mid-January 1991, it quickly proved a stunning military and political success for the Bush administrationThat success was at least partially premised on what came to be referred to as the “Powell Doctrine”

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

Named after Colin Powell, the Powell Doctrine took its principle lessons from Vietnam:

If the U.S. is to apply military force, it should do so in such an overwhelming way that a swift, low cost victory resultsIn applying military force, the U.S. should have clearly defined objectives against which results can me measured, and operational over-reach can be avoidedThe U.S. must have a clear exit strategy

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

At the time, and later, neo-conservative commentators criticized the decision to not extend the military offensive all the way the Baghdad, oust Saddam and occupy the countrySaid that this failure simply delayed what would be necessary in the future Others reply that what did happen in the future (the Iraq invasion and subsequent quagmire) proves that Powell and Bush 1 were right in the first place

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

At the end of the first Gulf War, President Bush famously proclaimed a ‘New World Order’This was a world where aggression by the strong toward the weak would be banished, and where international cooperation would replace power politics

Panama, the Gulf War and the New World Order

And yet very quickly, the New World Order came to look very much like the order that it was said to replaceIn particular, the unleashing of a multitude of ethno-nationalist conflicts, in the Balkans and the territories of the old Soviet Union, but also in Africa and Asia, characterized a new global disorderIt was against this backdrop that Clinton came to power in 1993, which we will examine next week

The Power of Nightmares (BBC 2004)

part 1 at http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2798679275960015727#

part 2 at http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2798679275960015727#docid=4602171665328041876

part 3 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2798679275960015727#docid=2081592330319789254