IRP Context: State-of-the-art in water systems planning ... 2016 background materials part 2...OWASA...
Transcript of IRP Context: State-of-the-art in water systems planning ... 2016 background materials part 2...OWASA...
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IRP Context: State-of-the-art in water
systems planning under change Patrick Reed
Professor of Civil Engr., Cornell University
Image Credit: The Atlantic, Mar. 2014, Reuters/Robert Galbraith
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A qualitative starting point…
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13 Case Studies
-UK & Australia -Denver Water -Bureau of Rec. -CA DWR -MWD -many more Seeking robustness across possible futures
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“Bottom-up” decision frameworks
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(Decision Scaling, Info-Gap, RDM, MORDM, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways …)
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Planning under uncertainty: Some context
What do robustness-based decision frameworks have in common?
How do methodological choices impact decision recommendations?
How does the MWD IRP link to the state-of-the-art?
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Evaluate alternatives in multiple
states of the world…
Quantify robustness measures and
determine sensitive uncertainties
What do robustness analyses have in common?
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What actions?
What causes
failures?
What world?
Acceptable in
many worlds?
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Planning under uncertainty: Some context
What do robustness-based decision frameworks have in common?
How do methodological choices impact decision recommendations?
How does the MWD IRP link to the state-of-the-art?
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Eastern U.S. example of four water
utilities through 2025
Four regional objectives:
• Volumetric reliability
• Restriction frequency
• Average cost
• Worst-case cost
(Zeff et al. 2014)
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The worst-performing utility is optimized such that others will perform as well or better.
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What risk-of-failure should trigger demand restrictions?
5%
0%
10% 10%
0%
4%
5%
4%
What risk-of-failure should trigger water transfers?
Risk-based triggers for drought management
10%
0%
3%
1%
What percent of revenue should each utility save as self-insurance?
10%
0%
3%
6%
What percent of revenue should each utility put toward third-party insurance?
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(Must be specified for every utility)
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Avoiding Tunnel Vision: Scenarios vs. Exploratory Modeling
http://www.hockscqc.com/articles/tunnelvision/tunnel-vision.jpg
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Which solutions are robust? How to decide?
Sample deeply uncertain states of the world (inflows, demand, etc.)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055
Raw
Wat
er D
eman
d (m
gd)
OWASA Demand Projections
1969
1987
1998
20082011
Actual
Previous OWASA Demand Projections 7/29/2015 11
It is very common to make poor predictions
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Construct alternative states of the world for different
combinations of uncertainties
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2 of 13 uncertainties including demand seasonality, reservoir evaporation, transfer prices, etc.
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Given/assumed
(classic scenarios) Discovered via modeling (scenario discovery—RDM)
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An assumed focus on climate/hydrologic factors
may fail to capture system vulnerabilities
? Rate of demand growth controls success more so than hydrology
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Acceptable in
many worlds?
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References: Schneller and Sphicas (1983)
Number of successes Number of failures
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What causes
failures?
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Discovering sensitive uncertainties
improves robustness of alternatives
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Planning under uncertainty: Some context
What do robustness-based decision frameworks have in common?
How do methodological choices impact decision recommendations?
How does the MWD IRP link to the state-of-the-art?
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Some summative comments
MWD is serving as a national/international leader in planning
Climate change is not the only concern, RDM allows the consideration of many uncertainties
In the future it would interesting to more fully link the uncertainties in the “scoping” and “implementation/policy” phases of the IRP
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Thanks!
Acknowledgements
NOAA SARP #NA110AS2310144
NSF SCRiM #GEO-1240507
USDA WSC #2014-67003-22076
References
Herman et al. (2015) How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change? JWRPM, 04015012.
Herman et al. (2014) Beyond Optimality: Multi-stakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty. WRR, 50, 7692-7713.
Zeff et al. (2014) Navigating financial and supply reliability tradeoffs in regional drought portfolios. WRR, 50, 4906-4923.
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