Capitalising on operational data to drive safety digitisation and automation

Andrew KILNER, Marta LLOBET LOPEZ, Brian HICKLING

Safety

March 2018

IRiS – The Integrated Risk Framework for Europe

Risk assessment Safety monitoring Management

of changeRisk

management

Can you measure the actual risk experienced in a

Unit

Where is safety going … incidents & occurrences

Can we predict the safety impact of operational

changes

Can we detect unsafe trends and monitoring impact of

changes

Starting with a few questions…

Safety Assurance

Business Approach to safety

Flight Planning data

Radar Tracks

Flight data

Operational Status (airspace,

airports)

Incident analyses

What we are aiming for…

Performance Measurement

IRiS

Safety Reporting

Risk Management

IRiS - ISAM

IRiS…

A data gathering capability

Data cleaning, storage & analysis

capability

A set of risk

models

Scalable safety

insight A what-if Capability

New views of safety data

MAC

Overview of a risk model

Traffic

Hazards

Strategic

Conflict

Pre-Tactical

Conflict

Imminent

Infringement

Imminent

Collision

Near Collision

Providence

STCA

Strategic Pln

Planning

DCB

Tactical

ACAS

AND

OR

Contr. Contr.

Contr. Contr. Contr. Contr.

OR

Precursors

Accident risk

Barriers

Contributors Contr.

5

Airside Induced

ConflictGroundside Ind.

Conflict

Tactical

Conflict

Planning

Conflicts

IRiS - Who helped to build it

6

StrategicConflicts

Pre-TacticalConflicts

ImminentInfringements

ACCIDENTS

Hazards

Planned Conflict

Plan Conflict

STCA Warning

ATCO Imminent Action

ImminentCollision

Visual Warning

ACAS Warning

Short Term DCB

Planning & Sequencing

Mid – Long Term DCB

Crew/AC Induced

CrewA/C Induced Conflict

ATC Induced

ATC Induced Conflict

VFR IFR

VFR IFR Conflict

ATC Induced Pre-tac Conflict

2. Barrier & elements within a barrier

� Contributions from incidents

Quantifying it …

1. Precursors measured from track data

� Hard data points

7

So what … 1

Qualitative review

Quantitative review

BASELININGRisk assessment

Actual Risk experienced in a Unit or operation

Supporting Local Risk Assessment

So what … 2

Safety monitoring

Where is safety

going…

Data available for further safety use

Barriers & elements within a barrier

• Quantification from Incidents

• Evens ‘Tagged’ when an incident occurs

EXPERTS

Impact assessment using Risk Model

Overall Safety

Impact

E1

E2

E3

So what … 3 Part 1

Per change

Per group of changes

For all the changes

TRAFFIC

Management of

change

Safety impact of changes

Setting Safety Proxies

So what … 3 Part 2

SC1

SC2

SC3

SC4

SC5

Management of

change

Safety impact of changes

Data Input

Automatic Data Processing

So what … 4

Baseline

Risk ModelData RefreshData Refresh Data Refresh Data Refresh

Bespoke Dashbaording

Automatic Data Processing

Risk management

Detect unsafe trends and

monitor impact

of changes

You can do miracles with powerpoint

It’s becoming reality

Its becoming reality

In Conclusion…

� We can include operational incident data in safety impact assessments of changes

� We have a set of safety proxies

� We make the best use of our data

� Not throwing it away

� Available forming & visualisation

� We know what happens when we have no more incidents to analyse…

� We Identify key risk areas and analysis of risk profile

� We can manage Safety in a big change environment like SESAR Deployment

Ready to meet 2017 / 373

Some Conclusions…