IRISFallMeetingToronto

September22,2017

VoterAnalytics

IRISPresentation|2

} MarketEnvironment

} AnalyticsatEMC

} VoterAnalytics

} FloridaCaseStudy

} RoleofResearchinAnalytics

Content

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} Traditional“research”ismergingwith“analytics”

} CompaniesarereleasingmarketresearchRFPsthataskdirectlyforanalyticsandmodeling

} Analyticsfirmsareofferingsurveyresearchservices

} Firmsthatusedtobecomplementaryarenowcompetitors

} MRAmergedwithCASROtobecometheInsightsAssociation,representingthe“marketresearchandanalyticsindustry”

MarketEnvironment

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} Focusedonvoteranalysis,targetingindividualvoters

} Firstelectoralmodelbuiltanddeliveredtoacampaignin2013

} Grewin2016,respondingtodemandandcompetition

} Twoprimaryproductareas§ ModelingandScoring

o Dataminingo Eventmodelingo Survey-assistedmodeling

§ Datavisualizationo Mappingo Dynamicreporting/webapplications

} Additionalproductsindevelopmentandlookingforopportunitiestointroducetocorporateclients

AnalyticsatEMC

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} Datapreparation§ Requirestheentiredatabaseofvotersforanelectoraljurisdiction§ Mustbe“enhanced”withdetaileddemographicandsocioeconomic

information§ Additionalconsumerinformation,behaviorsandattitudinalmodels

arealsodesired

} Creatingpredictivescores§ Buildanindividuallevelmodelwithmachine-learningalgorithms§ Predictafutureevent,i.e.,turnout§ Incorporatesurveydatatoprojectsurveyresponsestotheentire

databaseofvoters

} Developsegmentationswithdataminingandclusteringtechniquesusingthesamedata

} Primarydeliverablesarescoresandclassificationsuploadedtoavoterdatabaseandconsultationonuse

VoterAnalytics

FloridaCaseStudy

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FloridaHistoricalVoterRegistrationbyPartyThenumberofOtherpartyregistrants hasrisenconsiderablyinthelastdecade.

35%35%35%36%36%38%38%39%39%40%41%Republican

Voters42%

38%39%40%41%42%40%41%42%43%45%46%

DemocratVoters49%

27%26%25%23%22%22%21%

19%17%15%

13%OtherVoters9%

201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961994

DatagatheredfromFloridaDivisionofElectionswebsite

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DemocraticVotersbyCountyTheTallahasseeareahasthehighestconcentrationofregisteredDemocraticvoters inthestate.

RegisteredDemocraticvoters:

4,366,424(36.9%)

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RepublicanVotersbyCountyRepublicanvotersareconcentratedincountiesthroughout, butespeciallyinthewesternPanhandle

region.

RegisteredRepublicanvoters:

4,265,763(36.1%)

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OtherParty/Non-AffiliatedVotersbyCountyIndependentandnon-affiliatedvotersarefoundthroughout theSouthern CoastalandCentral

regionsofthestate.

RegisteredOtherParty/Non-Affiliatedvoters:3,188,757(27.0%)

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RegisteredDemocrat– RepublicanVotersDifferentialDemocratsaremostconcentratedinthepopulationcentersacrossthestate,whileRepublicansare

foundmostdenselyintheruralcountiesofthestate.

RegisteredDemocraticvoters:4,366,424(36.9%)

RegisteredRepublicanvoters:4,265,763(36.1%)

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FloridaSenateHistoricalPartyPerformance

DatagatheredfromFloridaDivisionofElectionswebsite

DemocraticCandidate

30%

63%

51%

48%

60%

20%

55%

44%

RepublicanCandidate71%

38%

46%

49%

38% 49%42%

52%

OtherCandidate 0% 3% 2% 2%

31%

3% 4%

1994General

1998General

2000General

2004General

2006General

2010General

2012General

2016General

66%turnout

49%turnout

70%turnout

74%turnout

47%turnout

49%turnout

72%turnout

75%turnout

Statewideperformanceofcandidatesvarygreatlyovertime.

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2016RubioSenateVoteMurphyonlyoutperformedRubiointhemajorurbancentersofthestate,whileRubiotookruraland

suburban counties.

Murphy:4,122,088(44.3%)Rubio:4,835,191(52.0%)

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2016TrumpPresidentialVoteClintonperformedbetteragainstTrumpthan2016’sDemocraticcandidateforSenate,Murphy,with

highproportions ofthevoteinurbancountiesandabetterperformanceinsuburban counties.

Clinton:4,504,975(47.8%)Trump:4,617,886(49.0%)

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FloridaTurnoutOverTime

66%

67%

49%

70%

55%

74%

47%

75%

49%

72%

51%

75%

53%*

Nov'94

Nov'96

Nov'98

Nov'00

Nov'02

Nov'04

Nov'06

Nov'08

Nov'10

Nov'12

Nov'14

Nov'16

Nov'18(*Projected)

Projectedturnout for2018isslightlyhigherthan2014turnout.

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FloridaLikely2018GeneralElectionTurnoutTheturnoutmodelprojectsthat53%ofallFloridavoterswillvoteinthe2018general.ThishistogramshowsthenumberofregisteredFloridavoterswitheachscore,from0to100.

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2016VoterTurnoutTheshareofvotersturningoutwashighestinCollier,BakerandFranklincounties.

2016Voterturnout:9,580,489voters

NumberofVoters [NumberofCounties]

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2018GeneralElectionTurnoutScorebyCountySumter,Liberty,andJeffersoncountieshavethehighestturnout scoresfor2018.

Allregisteredvoters:11,820,944

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2018TurnoutScore– 2016TurnoutDifferentialbyCountyOsceolaCountyhasthegreatestnegativeturnout differential,whileprojected2018turnout inthe

Tallahasseeareaisclosesttothatrecordedin2016.

Allregisteredvoters:11,820,944

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} Allregisteredvotersinthestateweresegmentedwithaclusteringalgorithmtoidentifynaturalgroupingsinthedata.

} Eightgroupswerediscoveredusingthefollowingattitudinalinformation:– Politicalideology– Religiouspreference– Campaignfinanceattitudes– Climatechangeattitudes– Collegeaffordabilityattitudes– Governmentsurveillanceandprivacyattitudes– Guncontrolattitudes– Minimumwageattitudes– Paidleaveattitudes– Pathtocitizenshipforimmigrantsattitudes– Women’srighttochooseattitudes– Progressivetaxationattitudes

ProfilingVoters

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Turnout PartyLoyaltyAgreementwithProgressiveIssues

EstablishmentLiberals

LiberalCatholics

Working-ClassProgressives

Great SocietyRetirees

UnalignedIndependents

TemperateConservatives

ConservativeCatholics

ConservativeStalwarts

VoterProfileGridThefollowingtableillustrateshoweachsegmentcomparesalongthreesignificantdimensions.

ColorScaleHighMediumLow

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EstablishmentLiberalsbyCountyEstablishmentLiberalsaremostlyconcentratedintheTallahasseeandGainesvilleareas.

RegisteredEstablishmentLiberalvoters:

1,600,567(13.5%)

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LiberalCatholicsbyCountyLiberalCatholicsaremostlyconcentratedintheMiami-Dadearea.

RegisteredLiberalCatholicvoters:

1,356,280(11.5%)

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Working-ClassProgressivesbyCountyWorking-Class Progressivesaremostlyfoundinthecountiessurrounding theTallahasseearea.

RegisteredWorking-ClassProgressivevoters:1,392,877(11.8%)

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GreatSocietyRetireesbyCountyGreatSocietyRetireesareconcentratedintwosetsofcounties:Citrus,Hernando,andSumter;and

Sarasota, Charlotte,GladesandHighlandscounties.

RegisteredGreatSocietyRetireevoters:1,027,708(8.7%)

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UnalignedIndependentsbyCountyUnalignedIndependentsareconcentrated inFranklinandLibertycounties.

RegisteredUnalignedIndependent voters:2,342,966(19.8%)

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TemperateConservativesbyCountyTemperateConservativesareconcentratedmosthighlyinSumterCounty.

RegisteredTemperateConservativevoters:1,865,190(15.8%)

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ConservativeCatholicsbyCountyMiami-DadeCountycontainsthehighestconcentrationofConservativeCatholicvoters.

RegisteredConservativeCatholicvoters:626,432(5.3%)

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ConservativeStalwartsbyCountyThePanhandleregioncontainsthehighestconcentrationofConservativeStalwart votersinthestate.

RegisteredConservativeStalwartvoters:1,608,924(13.6%)

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} Theroleoftheresearchindustryinanalytics§ Advice,interpretationandconsulting§ Developmentofcustomtoolsandmassmarketproducts

Discussion