IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013
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Transcript of IRI Ukraine Survey: September 2013
1
International Republican Institute
Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization
Rating Group Ukraine
with funding from the United States Agency for
International Development
Public Opinion Survey
Residents of Ukraine
August 27-September 9, 2013
2
Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.
The main sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.
Data were collected on August 27 – September 9, 2013 through face-to-face interviews with the respondents. The
margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. The response rate was 64 percent.
The sample design was a multi-stage random sample. The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the
respondent. The households were selected using the random route method.
• Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine, Kiev and Sevastopol).
All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.
• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of
selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the
settlement in each region. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size:
• City more than one million residents
• City 500,000-999,000
• City 100,000-499,000
• City 50,000-99,000
• City to 50,000
• Village
• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
3
MOOD OF UKRAINE
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
4
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction
or wrong direction?
13%
24%
15%
15%
71%
73%
66%
58%
69%
67%
16%
14%
20%
18%
16%
18%
13%
14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
5
Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household
changed?
1%
0.2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
6%
6%
9%
14%
8%
9%
37%
39%
45%
37%
46%
41%
36%
34%
30%
27%
30%
30%
18%
18%
13%
15%
14%
17%
2%
2%
3%
5%
1%
2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
6
In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine
to change?
1%
2%
0.4%
2%
1%
1%
12%
8%
17%
13%
8%
7%
27%
38%
31%
35%
32%
30%
29%
29%
24%
26%
32%
32%
17%
12%
11%
11%
15%
17% 13%
13%
12%
16%
14%
12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nov 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
7
ISSUES
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
8
Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following
methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?
69%
76%
64%
51%
35%
32%
24%
16%
22%
27%
35%
50%
53%
55%
62%
8%
9%
9%
14%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Collecting signatures for
petition, letter
Legal demonstrations
Legal strikes
Boycott
Demonstrations without
permission
Strikes without permission
Blocking of major roads
Occupation of buildings or
enterprises
Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA
34%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
9
Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following
methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?
May 2013
17%
23%
24%
73%
64%
54%
48%
28%
71%
66%
63%
60%
40%
38%
29%
18%
12%
11%
13%
11%
12%
8%
7%
8%Collecting signatures for
petition, letter
Legal demonstrations
Legal strikes
Boycott
Demonstrations without
permission
Strikes without permission
Blocking of major roads
Occupation of buildings or
enterprises
Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
10
If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, with whom
should it be?
42%
36%
37%
32%
40%
42%
40%
43%
41%
42%
37%
37%
3%
4%
5%
6%
5%
5%
15%
17%
17%
20%
18%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
11
What is your expectation, will Ukraine and the European Union sign the Association
Agreement in November 2013?
Definitely yes
9%
Probably yes
30%
Definitely no
9%
DK/NA
26%
Probably no
26%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
12
Which side will benefit more from the possible integration of Ukraine to the European
Union?
Ukraine
17%
European Union
26%
It is disadvantageous for
both sides
8%
DK/NA
19%
It is beneficial for both
sides
30%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
13
Which side will benefit more from the possible integration of Ukraine to the Customs
Union with Russia?
Ukraine
8%
Russia
34%
It is disadvantageous for
both sides
2%
DK/NA
16%
It is beneficial for both
sides
40%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
14
If signed in November 2013, do you think the Association Agreement with the European
Union will have positive or negative consequences for Ukraine?
Definitely positive
12%
Somewhat positive
35%
Definitely negative
9%
DK/NA
23%
Somewhat negative
21%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
15
What possible consequences will the signing of the Association Agreement between
Ukraine and the European Union have for Ukraine in these particular areas?
31%
20%
18%
16%
15%
14%
39%
37%
30%
33%
34%
35%
8%
16%
21%
16%
18%
21%
3%
6%
8%
6%
7%
10%
19%
21%
23%
29%
26%
20%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Freedom of movement in the European Union for
Ukrainian citizens
Protection of human rights and freedoms
Standard of living of citizens
Fight against corruption
Protection of territorial integrity of Ukraine
Economic development
Definitely positive Rather positive Rather negative Definitely negative DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
16
How would you evaluate your attitude towards the following entities?
26%
40%
41%
50%
54%
49%
45%
32%
16%
7%
8%
15%
4%
4%
6%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Russia
European Union
Poland
United States
Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
17
Which of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine?
(Three mentioned issues)
1%
3%
1%
2%
5%
6%
7%
10%
10%
14%
15%
17%
30%
35%
42%
44%
55%Unemployment
Low industry production
Corruption within the state bodies
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Government incompetence
Crime
Political instability
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Relations with Russia
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Hryvnia devaluation
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
18
18-29 years 50 years
and older 30-49 years
Which of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine?
(Three mentioned issues, by gender and age)
Male Female
54%
48%
47%
29%
24%
18%
17%
16%
10%
11%
5%
6%
6%
1%
1%
2%
1%
56%
41%
37%
39%
35%
16%
13%
13%
11%
9%
8%
6%
5%
3%
2%
4%
1%
62%
43%
44%
34%
21%
19%
19%
16%
10%
9%
7%
4%
4%
2%
2%
2%
0%
61%
49%
42%
31%
24%
20%
13%
15%
9%
10%
5%
8%
5%
2%
2%
2%
0%
47%
40%
40%
39%
40%
13%
14%
12%
12%
10%
7%
5%
6%
2%
1%
4%
2%
Unemployment
Low industry production
Corruption within the state bodies
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Government incompetence
Crime
Political instability
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Relations with Russia
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Hryvnia devaluation
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
19
East South
Which of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine?
(Three mentioned issues, by region)
West Center
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
71%
37%
52%
35%
28%
19%
11%
12%
9%
4%
3%
6%
4%
1%
0%
1%
2%
47%
47%
43%
29%
30%
17%
23%
17%
10%
8%
10%
6%
6%
1%
1%
1%
1%
65%
57%
32%
34%
40%
20%
11%
7%
9%
10%
1%
3%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
45%
37%
39%
41%
26%
12%
11%
17%
14%
15%
9%
8%
8%
5%
3%
8%
1%
Unemployment
Low industry production
Corruption within the state bodies
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Government incompetence
Crime
Political instability
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Relations with Russia
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Hryvnia devaluation
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
20
52% 54% 54%
50%53% 55%51%
44%
39%
48%
37%
42%
44%40%
42%
43%
43% 45%39%
26%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May-13 Sept-13
Unemployment Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production Control over price growth
What are the most important problems facing Ukraine?
(Top four issues identified)
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
21
Which of the following issues are the most important for you personally?
(Three mentioned issues)
2%
6%
1%
4%
5%
6%
6%
8%
8%
12%
13%
20%
23%
25%
40%
51%
58%Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Crime
Hryvnia devaluation
Government incompetence
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
22
18-29 years 50 years
and older 30-49 years
Which of the following issues are the most important for you personally?
(Three mentioned issues, by gender and age)
Male Female
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
52%
51%
35%
29%
26%
21%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
8%
6%
3%
1%
4%
3%
64%
51%
45%
22%
21%
19%
12%
11%
6%
9%
5%
5%
5%
5%
1%
7%
1%
52%
65%
28%
30%
25%
18%
14%
15%
8%
6%
6%
4%
3%
4%
0%
5%
2%
57%
62%
31%
26%
29%
17%
14%
13%
7%
7%
6%
4%
6%
4%
1%
5%
2%
63%
34%
55%
22%
18%
22%
12%
9%
9%
10%
5%
10%
5%
4%
1%
6%
2%
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Crime
Hryvnia devaluation
Government incompetence
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
23
East South
Which of the following issues are the most important for you personally?
(Three mentioned issues, by region)
West Center
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
62%
63%
35%
26%
16%
18%
10%
20%
10%
4%
6%
2%
5%
3%
0%
1%
2%
53%
57%
50%
25%
19%
24%
19%
9%
7%
13%
5%
4%
5%
1%
1%
1%
2%
57%
55%
47%
22%
39%
12%
12%
4%
10%
2%
3%
9%
4%
4%
0%
2%
2%
63%
32%
30%
27%
22%
22%
10%
13%
6%
11%
7%
10%
6%
8%
1%
17%
2%
Control over price growth
Unemployment
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Low industry production
Delay in salary/Pension payments
Crime
Hryvnia devaluation
Government incompetence
Lack of/Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Political instability
Relations with Russia
Rights to land ownership
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
DK/NA
24
58%54%54%
59%57%56%
51%50%51%
49%51%
46%
37%39%
36%34%41% 40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Nov-11 Mar-12 May-12 Aug-12 May-13 Sept-13
Control over price growth Unemployment Social protection for poor
What are the most important problems facing residents of Ukraine?
(Top three issues identified)
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
25
POLITICS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
26
If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such
elections?
33%
34%
36%
34%
8%
7%
19%
20%
4%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
May 2013
September 2013
Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
27
If Ukrainian presidential elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such
elections?
38%
38%
36%
32%
5%
7%
17%
17%
4%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
May 2013
September 2013
Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
28
Do you feel that the next presidential election will be free and fair?
Absolutely
free and fair
2%
Rather free and fair
17%
Rather not free and
fair
39%
Absolutely not free
and fair
26%
DK/NA
16%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
29
In the past two years, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened?
74%
59%
59%
54%
50%
50%
49%
49%
47%
47%
45%
44%
43%
35%
34%
30%
17%
17%
21%
29%
31%
30%
35%
30%
34%
40%
31%
35%
38%
38%
28%
37%
51%
53%
43%
60%
3%
7%
6%
13%
8%
12%
10%
5%
8%
12%
13%
8%
5%
6%
9%
14%
21%
13%
2%
6%
4%
3%
7%
8%
7%
6%
14%
6%
4%
10%
23%
22%
6%
3%
19%
10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Prices
Employment
Healthcare
Economy of Ukraine
Fight against corruption
Relations with Russia
Government competence
Housing and communal services
Agriculture
Political stability
Social protection
Fight against criminality
Small and medium business
Rights to land ownership
Stability of hryvnia
Salary/Pension payments
European integration of Ukraine
Situation with languages
Worsened Stayed the same Improved DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
30
How many times per week do you access the Internet?
19%
25%
24%
19%
24%
28%
6%
4%
6%
5%
6%
6%
7%
4%
9%
5%
8%
9%
7%
6%
6%
6%
9%
8%
5%
4%
5%
5%
5%
6%
54%
56%
49%
57%
47%
42%
2%
1%
2%
3%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
November 2011
March 2012
May 2012
August 2012
May 2013
September 2013
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
31
28
32
24
51
36
9
6
6
6
11
7
3
9
11
7
13
10
5
8
8
8
10
12
4
6
6
6
4
10
3
42
35
48
11
23
73
1
2
1
2
3
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
GENDER
Male
Female
AGE
18-29 years
30-49 years
50 years and older
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA
28
25
25
32
31
6
5
7
8
5
9
7
11
9
7
8
6
8
4
11
6
5
9
5
3
42
51
36
41
41
1
1
4
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
REGIONS
West
Center
South
East
How many times per week do you access the Internet?
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
32
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
33
Gender
45%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Female
Male
Age groups
23%
35%
43%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
50+
30-49
18-29
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
34
4%
23%
40%
6%
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Education
University, higher
Non-complete higher
Vocational secondary
General secondary
Non-complete
secondary
74%
9%
9%3% 3%
2%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Religion DK/NA
Atheist
Other
Believe in God but don't
belong to any religion
Greek Catholic
Orthodox
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
35
29%
19%
1%
50%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sector of employment
Do not work
Public
nongovernment
sectorState sector
Private sector
24%
1%
20%
1%
29%
4%8%
8%5%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Occupation Other
Unemployed
Housewife
Student
Pensioner
Higher and medium level
executiveWhite collar
Farmer
Blue collar
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
36
40%
40%
19%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Language usually spoken at home
Other
Ukrainian and
Russian equally
Russian
Ukrainian
80%
17%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ethnicity
Other
Russian
Ukrainian
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013
37
96%
3%1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Membership in a political party or nongovernmental
organization
Member of
nongovernmental
organization
Member of a
party
None
22%
30%
19%
29%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
West Ukraine Center Ukraine South Ukraine East Ukraine
Regions*
*Oblasts included in each region: West Ukraine – Volyn, Zakarpartia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnitskiy, Chernivtsi
Center Ukraine – Vinnitsya, Zhitomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kyiv City
South Ukraine – Crimea Autonomous Region, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson
East Ukraine – Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, September 2013