Iri Fewsnet Presentation

8/9/2019 Iri Fewsnet Presentation

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GHACOF24Food Security Outlook

Scenarios (2009/10)

Gideon Galu, Andrew Odero & Network Partners

[email protected] & [email protected]

http://www.fews.net


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Food Security Outlook ForumFood Security Outlook Forum

(FSOF):(FSOF):

1. To serve as a dynamic decision support tool in

contingency and response planning RISK

MANAGEMENT

2. Integrate Climatic and Non-Climatic information

into thefood security analysisprocess.

3. Create a Regional Forum for sharing Food Security

issues and concerns (pre- and post-season)

amongtheearlywarning and response agenciesin

theregion.


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When do weneed Contingency Plans?When do weneed Contingency Plans?

1. Whenthereisuncertainty and prediction errors;

2. Whenthere aremajor data gaps and errors;

3. High probability and/or high impact hazards

4. Wherethereisno access;

5. Bef oretheevent, not during or after;

6. Whenresponse capacity is uncertain.

In Kenya, we make contingency plans for these high-

probability - high-impact hazards: Drought, flooding, refugee

influxes, diseases and local natural resource conflicts(WFP-Kenya/2003)


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FSOF Process:FSOF Process:

1. Accurately understanding thecurrent Food SecuritySituation (throughfield assessments) in ALL countries

withintheregion and theunderlying CAUSES.

2. ContextualunderstandingtheClimate Forecasts andtheir potential implications to Food Security.

3. Reviewing underlying NON-CLIMATIC factors (civil war,

policies, markets/trade, diseases) and their projected

trends.

4. DevelopingFood Security Outlook Scenarios (most-

likely and worst-casescenarios) based on (2) and (3)

above and theirimpact onlivelihoods.


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Definingthe Problem:

Translating Seasonal Climate Forecasts

to Develop Food Security Scenarios:

Croplosses

Forage and browse availabilityLivestock productionlosses

Food availability and access (prices)

Wateravailability

Changesinlevels ofconflict

Flood

Drought

Destruction ofproperty and assetsImpacts oninfrastructure

Impacts onmarkets

Diseaseincidence

Labormarkets


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Food Security Situation : Over 17M Food

Insecure

Transitory Causes :(Mainly Climatic)

1. 4-5 prolonged droughtseasons

2.Droughtextended into highly

populated areas

2. Escalatingfood prices & poor

terms oftrade

3. Resource-based conflicts

4.Trans-boundaryDisease

outbreaks (PPR)

Underlying Causes:

(Mainly Non-climatic)

A.Chronicpoverty

B.Civilwar/insecurityC. IDP / Returnees

D. Poormarketingmechanisms

E. Environmental degradation

G.Constrained income

opportunities dueto Global

EconomicCrisis

Kenya

(3.8M+)

Ethiopia

(6.2M)

Somalia

3.8M

Tanzania

(1.2M)

S.Sudan

(1.3M)

Uganda

(1.15M)

Djibouti: 0.15M

Source (Sept. 2009):www.fews.net


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merg ng roug ren s n ense y

Populated.

1 Feb. 22 Aug. 2009 Population distributionproxies - 2007 (Landscan data)

Rainfall failure in parts of agric areas, which are also densely populated areas

(Rapid increase in food insecure population)


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Emerging Drought Trends(Drought-axis in the Great Rift Valley areas & surrounding)

2007 Landscan

Drought in the Great Rift Valley &

Surrounding areas


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u

ForecastSept. Dec. 2009

Source: ICPAC

1. Moderate Mild El-Nino event

2. Analog years (1982, 2002 &

2004)

3. Timely onset

4. Rains to intensify in November

extend into early 2010

5. Need to monitor closely the

developing situation, especially

the Indian & Atlantic Oceans

6. Normal-to-above Normal inshort-rains dependant & also

drought affected areas

7. Relatively high confidence

levels on the Sept.-Dec. rainfall

season due to the El-Ninosi nal..


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Seasonal Rainfall

Forecasting and

Interpretation (FIT)

Translatingprob.

into rainfall anomalies

Most-likelyscenario


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2009 Forecast Interpretation:

(Beneficial rains with Flood risks.)

> 500mm>300mm

Areas with increased

probabilities of attaining

the given thresholds

Maize/Sorghumcrop Floods(?)


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Recent past El-Nino Impacts & Analogue Year(s)Moderate (2006) to Mild (2002) El-Nino

Extreme (1997/98) Moderate (2006/7) Mild (2002/3)

Enhanced rainfallRainfall Deficits


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2009 Forecast Implications:

Timely Onset rains spilling into Early 2010

2002/3 2006/7

1. Timely onset for most of the short-rains dependant areas

2. Some delays over Rift Valley areas and parts of eastern sector

3. Extended length of the crop growing season (early 2010)


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2002/3 2006/7

2009 Forecast Implications:

1. Favorable prospects for agric

production

2. Rains expected to extend into early

2010..2004/5


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Adverse El-Nino Impacts on Floods Risk(Areas to watch for potential flood risks)

2006/7 Floods

1. Recharge of major Dams..

2. Transportation is likely to be affected

in flood prone areas.. could also

constrain relief supplies

3. Environmental degradation a threat


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Adverse El-Nino Impacts on Floods, RVF &

Malaria(RVF and Malaria Risks)

RVF threat exists but with relatively less impact than in 2006/7 El-Nino event


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Rain-fed Agriculture Food SecurityFood Security = fn (Availability, Accessibility,

Utilization)Opportunities Challenges/Risks

(How to?)

1. Rainfall Average

2. Extended Length

of Growing Period

1. Maximize Agric

prod

2. Reducepost-

harvestlosses

3. Ensureprice

stability

4. Flooding &

Diseases (RVR)

As usual, they will be drought after the El-Nino event


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2009/10 Projected Food Security Scenarios

(TBD)Current: Jul. Sept. 2009

Mid - term: Sept. - Dec. 2009(?)

COF24 Implications :

(Mainly Climatic)

1. Gradualrecovery ofFood

Securitystatusinmarginal

agric & pastoral areas.

2. Recharge ofwater

resources & Hydro-power

3. ImprovingTerms ofTrade

in Pastoral Areas..

4. Flood risk

5.Trans-boundaryDisease

outbreaks (RVF) & Malaria

6. Reduced resource-based

conflicts

Underlying Causes:

(Mainly Non-climatic)

A. Environmental

degradation

B.Chronicpoverty

C.Civilwar/insecurity

D. IDP / Returnees

E. Globalrecession

Long - term: Jan. - March. 2010

Gradual improvement?,

Depending on Govt. &

partners interventions

response to the forecast

rains..


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Current FS Situation: Feb. 2010

Food Security Conditions, Feb 2010Food Security Conditions, Oct 2009

Modest improvement in food security since 2009.

Attributed largely to the El Nino rains especially in

the pastoral areas and marginal agricultural areas

in the eastern sector


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http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/


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http://www.fews.net


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