Analysis of Renewable Costs:

The Need for Better Data

Michael TaylorSenior Analyst

GSE, Roma

12 December 2014

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The Voice, Advisory Resource and Knowledge Hub for 170 Governments

The International Renewable Energy Agency

Renewable energy c an:

Meet our goals for secure, reliable and sustainable energy

Provide electricity access to 1.3 billion people

Promote economic development

At an affordable cost

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The World of Energy is Transforming

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Global Investment in Renewable Energy

BUT

DEPLOYMENT IS NOT ON RENEWABLES STILL FACE

TRACK TO MEET OUR TOO MANY BARRIERS!

SHARED GOALS

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Absence of up-to-date costdata is a problem

Little cost data systematically collected

Data in public domain is patchy

Comparability of data not clear

Uncertainty over cost evolution

No clear, authorative voice on costs!

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Poor cost data is a risk

Without accurate up-to-date cost data, how do you:

Determine role of RE in energy mix

Set support policies at efficient levels

Uncertainty creates risks, reduces ambition

Communicate benefits of RE

IRENA IS RAMPING UP ITS WORK ON COSTS

• Decision making is often based on:

• outdated numbers

• opinion, not fact based

Cost Analysis:

Rationale and goals

• IRENA to become THE source for cost data

• Goals:

• Assist government decision-making, allow

more ambitious policies

• Fill a significant information gap

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What questions to answer?Comparing LCOE is not enough

Decomposition of LCOE is required

What is competitive varies

Need to understand market maturity

Can require very detailed data

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IRENA’s cost data collection

IRENA now has a world class database

Significant, ground breaking analysis

How do we advance the work?

But limited resources

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Rationale and goals

Low hanging fruit is gone

Shift the emphasis

Engage with industry

Deepen the analysis

Collect more, better data

Member countries

Private sector members

Observers14

Alliance structure

How do we shift to more systematic data collection?

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• Should cost data have same status as basic statistics?

• What is the framework to collect the data? Who should

collect the data?

• Who are the local stakeholders that need to be onboard?

• And so on.....

Many different options

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The Italian model

Data from existing policies

Systematic review, ad-hoc data

Open/crowd-sourced data

No one “right” solution, a toolkit

Benefits of systematic collection

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Reduced uncertainty

Powerful communications messages

Avoidance of costly mis-steps

More efficient and timely policy settings

More efficient, larger markets

Co-benefits

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Cost data can inform:

Scenario analysis

Help frame the policy debate

Roadmaps

Debunk myths

Where to now?

www.irena.org/costs