Iraq Current Political Situation and the Possibility of ISIS

Reappearance

Munqith Dagher

IIACSS research group – Iraq

September 2018

ISIL better understand people

• For the last four years I have argued that ISIL (Da’esh) is a symptomrather than a disease in itself.

• My theory to explain the sudden rise of ISIL in Iraq and the regionis based on:

1. Hundreds of thousands of face-to-face interviews that have beenconducted over the last decade.

2. Tens of focus groups, especially in Sunni Areas.

3. 43 F2F in-depth interviews with Da’ish captured fighters.

4. Confiscated documents from IS in Iraq.

Nation wide survey 8th June 2014

ISIL recruitment model

I and team research colleagues have developed a two stage model to explain why individuals may be drawn to

participate in violent extremist groups. We use this analytical framework to understand the genesis, rise, and decline of

ISIS in Iraq. Our central theoretical argument is that individuals join a violent extremist group because that group offers

the hope of reducing the strain that individuals find themselves under.

1.Strain results from an individual’s perceived psychological and physical needs not being met in significant ways. If

strain is widespread in a society due to widespread social disintegration—including discrimination, violence, blocked

pathways to success, economic crisis, normative looseness, anomie, etc., this will produce larger numbers of individuals

open to the idea of extremist solutions as ways out of their strain. We contend that it was widespread strain within the

Iraqi Sunni Arab population in 2013-2014 that made the genesis of ISIS into a formidable force possible, but that strain

under ISIS control also led Sunni Arabs to view ISIS as more of producer of strain than a solution to the problem,

contributing to the decline of the group’s control of Iraqi territory.

2.The second step in the radicalization process is an individual acting on his or her needs by either actively seeking an

extremist network or being introduced to one by a friend or relative. Seekers, those who look for the extremist network

because of strong feelings of strain, are much more likely to be deeply radicalized than followers, who simply follow a

social contact into an extremist network and may be attracted to the group for social rather than ideological reasons.

Benchmarks

• Beginning of 2003 , Iraq opened the door for Islamic Extremist fighters to come & fight against the US invasion.

• 15th of January , 2006 : Declaration of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia

• 7th of June, 2006 : The killing of Al Zarqawi

• 15th of October , 2006 : 1st Emir of Islamic State of Iraq

• 18th of April 2010 : Abu Bakir Al Baghdadi, 2nd Emir of ISI

• 8th of April 2013: The Group (ISI) adopts the nama Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant

• 9th of June 2014: ISIS took over Mosul

• 16th of October 2016: Beginning of Operation "We Are Coming, Nineveh” to recapture Nineveh

• 24th of January 2017 : Recapturing of all of Eastern Mosul

• 21st of July 2017: Recapturing of The Old City and the rest of Mosul

ISIL Recruitment Model

TopLeadership

Levels

Followers

Regularfighters and supporters

Foreigners Locals

Seekers

1- GenesisThe wide strains among Arab Sunnis

2- Maturation chapterDa’ish deception

3- Deterioration chapterDa’ish reality

ISIL Life Cycle

Nation wide surveys

Sunni vs. Shi’a Perceived Insecurity – Mosul and Salahdin

HOW UNSAFE DO YOU FEEL IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?MOSUL AND SALAHDIN

Sunnis’ association with Iraq as the basis for their identity decreased sharply from 80% in 2008 to 60% in 2010 and it is now only 40%

Iraqi Sunni National Identification

I AM IRAQI ABOVE ALL

Lack of trust

41%

35%

24%

36%

55%59%

46%

68%

2011 2012 2013 2014

How much confidence do you have in the Iraqi government to improve the situation in Iraq?

Sunni Muslim Shia Muslim

Nation wide surveys

what about the fighters ?

Around 40% of the interviewed fighters had a feeling of being humiliated before

joining ISIS

The responses to Jihadism and Salafi thinking questions shows a fair amount of

tolerance without having a strong Salafi thinking.

The one area to note is the anger about public criticism of Muslims and their

religious symbols.

The answers to the questions about jihad show a noticeable rejection of Salafi

jihadi principles.

The Role of Social Environment

The most important characteristic noted for a successful radicalizer was their capacity to

understand the young people and how to talk to them. Among these respondents,

1- GenesisThe failure of understanding people needs and feelings

2- Maturation chapterDa’ish deception.“IS will not stop in Iraq and conquer the world”5 terrorists stated that this was the main message IS sent when it occupied Iraq.

3- Deterioration chapterDa’ish reality

ISIL Life Cycle

In June 2014, ISIL occupied Ninawa, the second largest province in Iraq and extended within one week its control to over 40% of Iraq territories.

Sunnis welcomed the change in the beginning.

ISIL enjoyed more than one year of honeymoon in most occupied areas due to its good financial status and the ineffective response of the Iraqi government and the international community.

By the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016, ISIL became hostileand unresponsive to people’s needs as a result of effective international alliance measures and its cooperation with the Iraqi government to fight back against Da'esh.

Maturation chapter

What happened in Mosul was a result of?

200 telephone interviews were conducted with

people from Mosul in the period of 19-21

June2014

How aware people were in Mosul

Please think back to the time right before ISIS arrived in Mosul on June 4TH , 2014. How much information would you say you had about the group at that time?

Have not heard of isis before

96%

Have heard of isis before

4%

Source: 1200 F2F interviews with Mosul people on April 2018

Consistent rise in the support for Da’esh (Mosul) - Dec 2015

In your opinion, does Da’esh represent the views and interests of people like you?

1- GenesisThe failure of understanding people needs and feelings

2- Maturation chapterDa’ish deception

3- Deterioration chapterDa’ish reality.“They were not able to protect us in Mosul from airstrikes while they kept saying that they will conquer the world”“In the beginning they provided food ,some public services and security but after a while they become very brutal with serious shortages in food and health services”Da’ish captured fighters

ISIL Life Cycle

The deterioration chapter

In your opinion, does Da’esh represent the views and interests of people like you?

Thinking about life in general, is it better or worse today than eighteen months ago?

21%

39%

77%

38%

2%

21%

Better Worse Same

Jun-15 Jun-18

Current situation

HOPES

76%71%

91%

70%75%

84%

2016 2017 2018

HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE RELATIONS BETWEEN SUNNI ARABS AND SHIA ARABS IN IRAQ TODAY?

Sunni Shiaa

Good

Less Sectarianism

Confidence in Local Police

65%61%

40% 41%44%

69%72%

74%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sunni

Sunni’s Confidence in the Local Police Is at it’s highest point since

2011

More confidence in Iraqi institutions

Confidence in the Judicial system

26% 25%

30%

49%

56%

2015 2016 2017 feb-18 giu-18

Sunni MuslimSunni’s Confidence in the Judicial system Is at it’s highest point since

2011

More confidence in Iraqi institutions

Do you think that having credible elections is important when it comes to changing people’s lives ?

Nationwide poll

Faith in Democracy

75%70%

44%

14%10% 11%

2016 2017 2018

Shiaa Sunni

I think Iran Is a reliable partner

Iran’spopularity among Shiaadropped by more than

30%during the past two years

Iran’s Influences

Current Situation

CONCERNS

Similar Alerts & Red Flags

Not just in Sunni areas this time. Shias and Kurds are also suffering

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you think things are going in the wrong direction?

US Forces withdrawal ISIL took over Mosul

Mosul free

45

41 4137

48

40

31

41

34

26

10

2126

21

44

50 50 5044

54

65

5155

65

82

74 72

79

nov-10 mar-11 lug-11 ott-11 apr-12 feb-13 set-13 mar-14 gen-15 set-15 gen-16 apr-17 apr-18 18-set

Right Direction Wrong Direction

Witnessing the same concerning pattern again

Nationwide poll

HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT ISIL OR A SIMILAR ORGANIZATION WILL

REAPPEAR IN YOUR CITY?

Apr.2017 Aug.2017 Jun.2018 Sep.2018

64%

26%

60%

74%

36%

73%

38%

26%

Concerned Not Concerned

Nationwide poll

Iraqi’s confidence in the national Government decreased once again after the constant recovery during the past 3 years

Nationwide poll

The Negative Trends are Repeating

Generally speaking, do you approve of the job Haider Al Abadi is doing as a prime minister ?

71%

58%

45%

2015 first quarter 2018 Sep-18

The Negative Trends are Repeating

Favorability Comparison of the last two prime ministers during the last month of their term

30

48%

8%

35%

56%

45%

37%

Haider Al Abadi (2018) Nouri Al Maliki (2014)

Sunni Shiaa Total

History Repeats itself

ISIS took over Mosul 1 Month After

IRAQ: Confidence in Iraqi Police

Nation wide surveys

78%

84%

75%

82% 81%85% 84%

60%65%

61%

40% 41%44%

69%72% 74%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Shiaa Sunna

How much confidence do you have in the Iraqi Police to improve the situation in Iraq?

Shiaa’sconfidence in the local police is at it’s lowest Point

Ever!

Nationwide poll

How would you evaluate the government performance in creating job opportunities?

Shiee Sunni

Iraqis’ think

that the

government

is

performing

really poorly

in terms of

finding jobs

for them!

Nationwide poll

Elections turnover over the last four Terms

82%

64%60%

42%

2005 2010 2014 2018

Nationwide poll

Iraqi Sunni National Identification

2008 2010

Sunnis’ association with Iraq as the basis for their identity

is declining again, after increasing dramatically in

2017

Nationwide poll

80%

60%

40%

81%

65%

2008 2010 2014 2017 2018

DO YOU THINK THAT THINGS IN IRAQ ARE GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?

20182017

Thing are going in the right direction Thing are going in the wrong direction Nationwide poll

What’s your opinion regarding having a strong leader, who does not care neither about the parliament nor about the elections?

Total

Kurds

ShieeSunni

Large percentage of Shiee & Sunni prefer an autocratic leader

Nationwide poll

“I want a strong leader”

Confidence in the Judicial System

How much trust do you have in the judicial system?

Trust

26% 25%30%

49%

56%60%

46%

68%

51%

35%

2015 2016 2017 feb-18 giu-18

Sunni Muslim Shia Muslim

Nationwide poll

10

%

56

%

11

%

38

%

SUNNI SHIAA

DO YOU THINK IRAN’S INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQI AFFAIRS BOLSTERS IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY OR THREATENS IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY?

2017 2018

Iran’s Influences

Bolster

A glimpse to recent Protests

Current Political Dynamics in Iraq :

1. US-Iranian struggle (In Iraq and the region).

2. The establishment of the new government. (Shia-Shia , Sunni-Sunni,

and Kurd-Kurd conflicts).

3. Basrah and Southern cities protests.

4. Iraq Vs. Iran Shia clergies hidden struggle.

In light of these current political dynamics in Iraq, there are three possible scenarios for ISIS’s (or a similar organization)

reappearance:

The best possible scenario is having a new, strong, but balanced government with the same positive trends of Al-Abadi’s previous 4 years. This government should have balanced relations with both Iran and USA and be accepted by both countries. If the US and the Iraqi Shia clergy influence who wins the struggle to form a government, then this possibility is highly likely. This means a low probability of ISIS’s reappearance.

The second best scenario for keeping ISIS at bay is having a new strong government which leans more toward US policy and interests in the region. This means that there will be a moderate likelihood of ISIS reappearing.

The third scenario is , The establishment of an Iraqi government that is very close to Iran: (This would mean the highest probability of ISIS reappearing out of the three scenarios) due to the following:

a. Iran will use Iraq as one more card to negotiate a better deal with the US. This would be the same consequences that Iraqi experienced with the Obama administration deal with Iran in 2010.

b. Iranian-supported militias will control the entire Iraqi government. This will make reconciliation with Sunnis much more difficult and increase the strains in Sunni areas.

This Month’s Numbers Questions ?

The possibility of Syrian immigrants to come back to

their houses in Syria? And what can be provided for them to

come back?

IIACSS conducted a study in Syria where 298 out of 1000 respondents with relatives outside Syria were asked, If he is expected their relatives will comeback to Syria, in each of the following cases:

• If the war in Syria ends this year with the victory of the regime.• If the war in Syria ends this year with the victory of the opposition.• If a transition began.• If your relative has get a foreign nationality.

The results were as follows:

Syrians opinion in Syria about the possibility of their relatives returning to Syria

13

35

1714

12

33

54

4020

1915

25

55

14 13

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

If the war ends this year andthe Regime wins

If the war ends this year andthe Opposition wins

If a transitional period begins If your family member receivesforeign citizenship

Very unlikely

Somewhat unlikely

Somewhat likely

Very likely

Syrians opinion in Syria about the possibility of their relatives returning to Syria

Also IIACSS conducted a study in with 2000 refugees in Turkey and Lebanon about the most important issue to let you comeback to Syria the question is:

"How important is each of the following to make you return to Syria?"

The results were as follows:

The possibility of returning refugees from countries neighboring Syria (Turkey - Lebanon)

The possibility of returning refugees from countries neighboring Syria (Turkey - Lebanon), (Results)

88%

73%

67%

47%

45%

36%

33%

33%

30%

28%

25%

22%

17%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Guarantees that there will be no enforced disappearance

The fall of the Assad regime

Implementing a political transition process, of which Assad is not a part

Release of detainees

Starting a real political transition

Exemption from compulsory military service

Restoring property confiscated by the regime

The exit of Iranian forces and militias

Suitable Infrastructure availability (Reconstruction)

Accountability of those involved in war crimes

Economic situation improved

The exit of Russia army

General amnesty with international guarantees

The existence of an independent judiciary

The majority of Syrians trust NGOs to provide basic services

Assad regime; 27,9

Iinternational organizations like the UN and other organizations;

29,9

NGOs and local relief associations; 40,2

Other (specify); 2,1

The majority of Syrians trust NGOs to provide basic services

Assad regime; 27,9

Iinternational organizations like the UN and other organizations;

29,9

NGOs and local relief associations; 40,2

Other (specify); 2,1

More than half of the Syrians do not believe that ISIL ideology will re-emerge in other terrorist groups

When we asked

“Even if Da’esh are defeated militarily, the ideology will likely re-emerge with another group in the future?”

Agree; 39

Disagree; 61

More than half of the Syrians do not believe that ISIL ideology will re-emerge in other terrorist groups

When we asked

“Even if Da’esh are defeated militarily, the ideology will likely re-emerge with another group in the future?”

Agree; 39

Disagree; 61

Syria's future according to the point of view of the Syrians

There is still hope for Syrians to return to coexistence, when we asked: ".How likely do you think it is that Syrians can put their differences aside and live side by side again?" more 60% they think likely Syrians can live side by side again.

Very likely; 21

Somewhat likely; 47

unlikely; 20

Very unlikely; 11

Majority of Syria's oppose divide the country

”Some people argue that the solution in Syria is to divide the country into autonomous regions, which can govern themselves. Do you support or oppose such a splitting of the country? "

Support; 16

Oppose; 84

Syria's preferences about forms of government

A representative democracy; 46

A strong leader; 29

An Islamic government; 25

Majority of Syria's want to choose the next president through free and fair elections, after a transitional period

“After a transitional period, the President of Syria should be chosen in free and fair elections "

Agree; 87

Disagree; 13

But more than half do not want Bashar Assad to participate in the upcoming elections

“Bashar al-Assad should be permitted to stand in a future Presidential election "

Agree; 41

Disagree; 59

Questions ?