Midterms – Dems win http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/16/opinion/kohn-democrats-midterms/

CNN) -- The midterm elections are less than three weeks away, but by several measures, Democrats have already won.¶ Sure, elections are about the race to the top between competing candidates, but they're also a barometer on long-term trends, issues and party trajectories. While the winners of this season's sprints have yet to be determined, Democrats look well-positioned for the lengthier political marathon. How?¶ 1. There's still a contest for the Senate¶ Historically, the party in the White House tends to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections. The second midterm election of a two-term president -- as this election is for President Barack Obama -- is usually brutal. Only six times since the Civil War has a president come close to gaining seats in both chambers in a sixth-year election.¶ Add to that this year there are simply more Democratic-held Senate seats up for grabs -- with more ranked "toss ups" than Republican-held seats -- and the very fact that Democrats still have a shot at holding onto the Senate is, as Vice President Joe Biden might say, a BFD.¶ 2. Democratic policies are emerging as third rails¶ Witness Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, running for re-election in Kentucky, and the dance he did around Obamacare during a debate. McConnell insisted that he would repeal Obamacare "root and branch" but somehow, miraculously, keep the

law's state-based health insurance exchange.¶ This shows that despite the lackluster rollout of the Obamacare website,

voters still overwhelmingly support the particular details and programs of the law, even in places such as Kentucky, where over 400,000 people have enrolled for health coverage under Obamacare's provisions.¶ As the law continues to take hold -- and become more effective

and popular -- that rhetorical dance will get more uncomfortable for Republicans, who are still struggling to reconcile their opposition to equal pay legislation, raising the minimum wage, refinancing student loans and extending benefits for the unemployed.¶ When President Obama said -- "I am not on the ballot this fall. Michelle's pretty happy about that. But make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot" -- he was right. And when the

American people weigh in on Democratic policies, they'll probably side with Democrats.¶ 3. Voters know about "Republican War on Women"¶ In 2012, it was easy to say the whole "War on Women" thing was an aberration that can be blamed on a few errant

GOP candidates such as Todd Aiken. But this year, Republicans doubled down on their attacks on women's opportunity and reproductive freedom -- and the "Republican War on Women" brand will now

forevermore stick.¶ In New Hampshire, the Republican platform has adopted "fetal personhood" into its state party platform, echoing conservative-backed referenda on the ballots in Colorado, Tennessee and North Dakota that would severely restrict women's control over their

own pregnancies. Republicans also opposed the mandate in Obamacare to make birth control affordable and accessible through all health insurance. They have also blocked equal pay legislation and held up re-authorization of the Violence Against Women Act.¶ Economic equality and reproductive freedom are basic priorities for women voters, a group that Republicans already had a tough time winning over. The GOP even commissioned its own poll that found women voters are "barely receptive" to Republican ideas and think the party is "intolerant" and "stuck in the past." By their own deeds, not to mention rhetoric, Republicans just keep reinforcing their war on women

and driving voters away.¶ 4. Republicans appear desperate¶ Wasn't this election supposed to be about Obamacare? No, that didn't

work. So Republicans tried to make the midterms about Benghazi. No luck there either. Now they're just generally fear-mongering around ISIS and Ebola and hoping that would work.¶ But the constantly shifting Republican shell game shows how little substantive traction conservatives have with average voters outside their highly gerrymandered House districts . Every time they open their mouths, Republican candidates show that they habitually bash President Obama to distract from the impression that they have neither the intention nor ability to help solve urgent problems facing the country.¶ When you're so worried about the outcome of an election you actively try to discourage Americans from voting, even if it means violating the constitution and values you're sworn to protect. Mind you, it's deeply disturbing that Republicans have used the fig leaf of voter fraud to justify disenfranchising countless legitimate voters to serve their partisan ends.¶ But voter ID laws are a kind of Hail

Mary pass thrown by a GOP all too aware that if it just lets everyone keep voting, Republicans are going to keep losing elections -- especially as the American electorate gets younger and more racially diverse.¶ That Republicans don't mind alienating voters by opposing same-sex marriage and immigration reform, which most young voters support, suggests a profound desperation -- namely, a party aware that it can't transform itself for the future and so willing to settle for last gasps of power with its old white voter base. Meanwhile, Democrats are registering new progressive voters in states such as Georgia and Texas at unprecedented rates.

IranA deal will be reached before the November 24 deadlineDavid Stout (staff writer) TIME, October 14, 2014 http://time.com/3504462/iran-rouhani-nuclear-deal-sanctions/ Acc 10/17/14

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani took to the nation’s airwaves on Monday night to proclaim that a nuclear deal with the West will be signed ahead of a deadline in late November. “We will find a solution to the nuclear subject and we believe that the two sides will certainly reach a win-win agreement,” said Rouhani, according to Iranian broadcaster Press TV. Representatives from the U.S., E.U. and Iran are set to meet up in Vienna later this week to attempt to hammer out the The potential deal aims to guarantee that Iran’s nuclear program remains strictly for peaceful purposes. Iran has been hit with myriad sanctions by Western nations for moving ahead with a nuclear program that Tehran claims is engineered to meet the country’s scientific and energy needs. However, the U.S. and Israel have long argued that the Islamic Republic’s

leadership has been attempting to develop a clandestine nuclear arsenal. President Rouhani was swept into power 14 months ago after campaigning on a more moderate platform and signaling that he aimed to ease the animosity that’s been brewing between Washington and Tehran for decades. The potential nuclear deal is also seen as pivotal to staving off an all-out future war between Israel and Iran.

Sanctions talk will only occur if negotiations have stalled; even if the legislation comes up, it’s merely political posturingTHE JERUSALEM POST, “Washington Watch” October 15, 2014 http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Washington-Watch-Senate-Control-whats-the-difference-378925 Acc 10/17/14

Earlier this year the Senate reluctantly shelved House-passed sanctions in response to White House pleas to give nuclear negotiations with the Islamic Republic a chance to succeed. The original target date was extended to November 24 and there is little sign of progress, so look for the negotiators to kick

the proverbial can farther down the road. The outgoing 113th Congress is expected to hold a post-election lame duck session starting November 12, even though the previous week’s election results may not be complete and Senate control uncertain. The main topic will be extending government spending and Democrats, especially if they lose their majority, will try to push

through a number of diplomatic, judicial and administrative nominations while they control the Senate floor. Unless a breakthrough with Iran appears imminent, there may be a move to revive the Menendez-Kirk Iran sanctions legislation. Backers will call it an incentive for the Vienna talks but mostly they’ll be previewing their 2015 strategy if the Iranians look like they’re stalling to buy time to build their bomb.

Negotiations are accelerating before the November 24 deadline—both the US and Iran are hopeful that an agreement can be reachedParisa Hafezi and Fredrik Dahl (staff writers) REUTERS UK, October 14, 2014 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/10/14/uk-iran-nuclear-idUKKCN0I314Y20141014 Acc 10/17/14

Iran does not expect a breakthrough in high-level nuclear talks with the United States and the European Union this week but hopes they will help pave the way for a final deal, its foreign minister said on Tuesday. Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted by Iran's Fars news agency after arriving in Vienna, where he was due to meet European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will join them on

Wednesday. Zarif's cautious optimism came a day after President Hassan Rouhani told Iranian television that a nuclear agreement was "certain" and that only "fine details" remained to be negotiated. Talks between Iran and six powers - the United States, France, Germany, China, Russia and Britain - are due to conclude by a self-imposed Nov. 24 deadline with, diplomats hope, a deal to end a standoff that has lasted more than a decade. Diplomats say major differences remain, especially over the future scope of Iran's enrichment of uranium, a process that can yield material either for civilian nuclear power stations - Tehran's stated goal - or

for nuclear bombs, which Western powers have long suspected may be Tehran's underlying agenda. Kerry said in Paris on Tuesday that he did not believe that reaching a lasting accord within six weeks was out of reach, although he noted that many issues remained to be resolved. Asked about speculation that an extension will be needed beyond that deadline to nail down a permanent settlement with Iran,

Kerry pointed out that he was headed for Vienna on Wednesday for three-way talks with Zarif and Ashton. He dismissed doubters who spoke as if "they know more than I do" but insisted that "I'm not about to predict". "I don’t believe it's out of reach," he said, but added, "We have some tough issues to resolve." In a further sign of attempts to accelerate negotiations, Ashton's office said she and Zarif would meet with senior foreign ministry officials known as political directors of the six powers in the Austrian capital on Thursday, a day after the meeting between the top EU, U.S. and Iranian diplomats. "The main thing for us now is that time is not being lost," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted as saying by Tass news agency.

The November deadline will force hard decisionsSimon Sturdee (staff writer) YAHOO NEWS, October 17, 2014 http://news.yahoo.com/talks-seek-overcome-iran-nuclear-impasse-110704050.html Acc 10/17/14

Iran's foreign minister said Thursday that Tehran opposes extending troubled nuclear talks beyond a November 24 deadline, even though major stumbling blocks remain in the way of a deal. "We only have 40 days left to the deadline and... none of the negotiators find (an) extension of talks appropriate," Mohammad Javad Zarif said in Vienna, a day after six hours of intense talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry. "We share this

view... and we think there is no need to even think about it," Zarif said in the Austrian capital, quoted by the state television's website. The comments echoed those of a a senior US State Department official late Wednesday after the talks between Kerry, Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in a Vienna hotel room. "Deadlines help people to make hard decisions, and there are hard decisions to be made here. And we must," the US official said on condition of anonymity.

Iran needs sanctions lifted because dropping oil prices are pressuring its budget even moreJay Solomon (staff writer) WALL STREET JOURNAL, October 16, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/articles/oils-fall-militants-rise-color-iran-nuclear-talks-1413492207?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10800882878353264346304580218623623544494.html Acc 10/17/14

The plunge in global energy prices and the rise of Islamic State militants have emerged as wild cards in the international diplomatic effort aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, said U.S. and European officials. Negotiators concluded two days of talks here on Thursday aimed at reaching a final deal to curtail Tehran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for an easing of international sanctions by a Nov. 24 deadline. “It is narrowing,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif about the differences between Iran and the bloc of nations at the talks. “But we still have a long way to

go.” During the talks, economics and regional security arose as potential factors. Iran’s finances

already have been sent reeling over the past two years due to international sanctions that have cut Tehran’s oil exports in half. Now, a recent drop in international energy prices is placing even more pressure on Iran’s budget, which derives 60% of its financing through oil sales, potentially forcing Tehran into making more concessions in the talks, the diplomats said. Economics have played a central role in the nuclear negotiations since they resumed last year following the election of Iranian President Hasan Rouhani. Iranian officials said Mr. Rouhani’s advisers found the government’s coffers depleted once taking office due to the sanctions as well as the fiscal mismanagement under the country’s previous government. Starting in 2012, the U.S. and European Union put in place a virtual total embargo on Iranian energy-product imports.

ISIS will increase the chances that Iran and the US will reach a negotiated settlementJay Solomon (staff writer) WALL STREET JOURNAL, October 16, 2014 http://online.wsj.com/articles/oils-fall-militants-rise-color-iran-nuclear-talks-1413492207?tesla=y&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10800882878353264346304580218623623544494.html Acc 10/17/14

The U.S. air campaign against Islamic State militants could also both aid or potentially undermine the continuing rapprochement between Washington and Tehran, U.S. and European officials said. Iranian officials have voiced common cause with the U.S. about the threat posed by Islamic State militants to the Middle East and, in particular, the Iraqi government that is allied with both Washington and Tehran. American and Iranian officials both have stressed that formal cooperation between their two governments is possible with a settlement of the nuclear dispute. But they have also increasingly expressed alarm that Islamic State fighters are seeking to encircle Baghdad, a joint concern that could underpin

the desire of both sides to make a deal in Vienna by the November deadline. “I don’t think [the Iranians] worry for their own security” when they look at Islamic State, “but they don’t want Iraq to fall apart,” said a senior

European official involved in the diplomacy. “It’s a strategic interest for Iran.

Iran wants to end sanctions, and so will ship LEU to Russia and thus reduce its stockpile. This will permit an agreement.AP and AFP, THE TIMES OF ISRAEL, October 16, 2014 http://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-looks-at-compromise-nuke-deal-says-wont-seek-talks-extension/ Acc 10/17/14

Iran is considering a US proposal at nuclear talks that would allow it to keep more of its nuclear infrastructure intact while still reducing its ability to make an atomic bomb, two diplomats told The

Associated Press on Thursday. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Tehran does not want to extend its nuclear talks with world powers beyond a November 24 deadline. “We only have 40 days left to the deadline and also none of the negotiators find [an] extension of talks as appropriate. We share this view… and we think there is no need to even think about it,” Zarif said on the sidelines of talks in Vienna, as quoted by the website of state television. Zarif said the sanctions “have had no effect” on

Tehran’s development of its nuclear program. “Sanctions are a symbol of a past relationship, and this symbol should be broken. That’s why we are putting the emphasis on [lifting] them.” At issue is Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which can make both reactor fuel and the fissile core of nuclear arms. Tehran insists the program is only for future energy needs. Iran is refusing US demands that it cut the number of working enriching centrifuges from nearly 10,000 to only a few thousand. That

dispute has been the main stumbling block to progress since the talks began early this year. Ahead of a Nov. 24 deadline to seal

a deal, diplomats told the AP last month that US had begun floating alternates to reducing centrifuges that would eliminate the disagreement but still accomplish the goal of increasing the time Iran would need to make a nuclear weapon. Among them was an offer to tolerate more centrifuges if Tehran agreed to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which can fuel reactors but is also easily turned into weapons-grade material. Back then, Iran was non-committal. But the two diplomats said Thursday it recently began discussions with Moscow on possibly shipping some of its low-enriched stockpile to Russia for future use as an energy source. Russia supplies fuel for Iran’s existing nuclear reactor