Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear and Domestic Issues

Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear and Domestic Issues

Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear and Domestic Issues

International Peace Institute With Charney Research

8 December 2010

2

Summary • Iranians divided on government’s performance. • Dissatisfied with economy. •Worry over sanctions and isolation. •Want to focus on domestic affairs. • Favor closer ties to the West. • Rising tensions sparked hostility toward the US, Europe and UN. • Favor nuclear arms and do not want to back deals to halt enrichment. • Independent polls do not contradict official turnout of 2009 election, which gave around 60% of vote to Ahmadinejad. • Support to religious institutions remains substantial but majority expect democratization.

Key findings from national telephone survey of 702 Iranians between August 30 and Sept 7, 2010 include:

3

Iran’s public is sharply split on government’s performance. How would you rate the work of the national government excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Highest Support

Lowest Support

Gender Men < High School: 68% Men 35+: 61%

Urban women: 32% Women > High School: 41%

Area Type Rural: 65% Urban areas 1 million+: 39%

Region Southwest 60% Tehran: 45% Northwest: 46%

Demographic Differences (Excellent / Good rating)

15% 16%

35% 32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Excellent/Good Fair/Poor

50% 48%

Good Poor Excellent Fair

4

Iranians divided on presence of free speech, rule of law and desirability of morality police.

44% 47% 47%

42% 44% 47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Free to speak publicly on politics Laws set, clear and enforced Abolish morality police

Yes No

Do most people that live in the area where you live feel free to express their political opinions?

Do most people that live in the area where you live feel the laws and rules are set, clear, and fairly enforced?

Some people think we should abolish the morality police. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this?

5

Would you say your and your family’s economic situation have in general gotten better, gotten worse, or are about the same as compared to four years ago?

How would you describe your household’s financial situation?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

May 2009 September2009

September2010

Worse Same Better

Most Iranians face stagnant or shrunken income and are economically discontented.

15% 16%

13% 34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Excellent/Good Fair/Poor

Good Poor Excellent Fair

15%

85%

6

Iranians feel they have opportunities to improve their lives.

54%60%

38%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Have real opportunities to improve their lives? Have much hope for the future?

Yes No

Do most people where you live…

7

32%

21%

15%

8%6%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Economic santions Relations with West International Image

What would you say is the biggest problem that Iran faces outside our borders?

Sanctions / Isolation: 53%

Iranians concerned about economic sanctions and international isolation.

8

As you may know, Iran is currently under sanctions for enriching uranium. Would you say these sanctions are having a lot of negative impact, some negative impact, little negative impact, or no negative impact on our country’s situation?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Lot/some impact Little/no impact

47%

45%

Iranians split on impact of sanctions on economy.

45%

9

Do you think that Iran should focus more on…

65%

32%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Domestic problems Leading the Middle East

67%

29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Domestic problems Leading the Muslim world

Iranians weary of seeking leadership in Middle East and Muslim world.

10

Here are two views. Which is closer to your view? The best way to solve our country’s problems is to…

Here are some things it’s been suggested the West should do. Let me know how you feel about each. The West should…

55%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Speak out about humanrights violations in Iran

Help nongovernment civicgroups in Iran

67%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Form closerconnections withdeveloped Western

countries

Reduce ourconnections withdeveloped Western

countries

Most Iranians aspire to closer ties with West and want Western help on human rights and civil society.

11

Growing antiAmerican sentiment and widespread criticism of Europe and the United Nations among Iranians.

34%29%

8%

49%

56%

87%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

February 2008 May 2009 September 2010

Favorable Unfavorable

30%

38%

55%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Europeans United Nations


Europeans and the UN United States

12

Iran’s greatest threat in the region Likelihood of an Israeli or US attack if Iran continues with its nuclear program

38%

68%

44%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

US Israel US Israel

US Israel

16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Very likely/fairly likely Fairly unlikely/very unlikely

Very Fairly

18%

Sept 2010 May 2009

US perceived as more of a threat than Israel, but Iranians do not believe either will strike nuclear facilities.

76%

15%

61%

2%

13

Iranians support aid to Hamas and Hezbollah.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Support Total Oppose

Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose Iran’s financial and military aid to Hamas in the Palestinian Territories and Hezbollah in Lebanon?

68%

29%

14

Iranians would accept a two state accord between Palestinians and Israelis.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Total Favor Total Oppose

If the Palestinians make a twostate agreement to live in peace with Israel, would you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose of strongly oppose Iran accepting the agreement?

58%

36%

15

Do you support or oppose Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons?

52% 51% 52%

71%

42% 39% 40%

21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

June 2007 February 2008 May 2009 September 2010

Total Support Total Oppose

Majority of Iranians support the development of nuclear weapons.

16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Support Oppose Refused toanswer/don't

know0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Support Oppose Refused toanswer/don't

know

The “Grand Bargain”: Suspension of enrichment and concessions on Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraq, and Afghanistan by Iran in return for guarantees of nonaggression, and end to sanctions, WTO membership and the restoration for normal relations with the West.

The Turkish/Brazilian deal: Iranian enriched uranium sent to Turkey in exchange for nuclear fuel for a research reactor, which would slow but not halt the nuclear program and allow further talks.

27%

55%

34%

39%

17%

27%

Most Iranians not much interested in making deals over nuclear program.

17

63%68%

36% 37%

26%21%

16%

35% 37% 38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Khatami Rafsanjani Moussavi Karroubi Green Movement


Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani enjoy broad popularity. Green Movement, Moussavi, and Karroubi are favored by 2535%.

18

Did you vote in the June 2009 presidential election?

85% 86%89% 87% 86%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Official Turnout Globescan poll June 2009

University of Maryland poll June 2009

World Public Opinion poll Sept

2009

Charney Research

poll Sept 2010

Independent polls show large turnout similar to official election returns.

19

63%

56%61%

55%58%

37%42%

37%42%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Official Turnout Globescanpoll June 2009

University ofMaryland pollJune 2009

World PublicOpinion

poll Sept 2009

CharneyResearch

poll Sept 2010

Ahmadinejad

Who did you vote for in that election?

Around 60% say they voted for Ahmadinejad in 2009 election.

20

Most Iranians support government’s crackdown on opposition. Do you feel that the government crackdown on the opposition after the election…

19%

59%

10%12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Went too far Was correct Refused to answer Don't know

21

Iranians feel that restrictions needed to protect Islam and Iran. Which of these is closer to your view – we need controls to protect Islam and Iran from its enemies; or we need more democracy, freedom and the rule of law?

51%

32%

8%10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Needs controls Needs moredemocracy

Refused to answer Don't know

22

Iranians support theocratic foundation of government but expect change and further democratization. Who should make final decision on issues? Do you expect that the elected President and

Majlis will make the final decision on issues within the next ten years?

47%

32%

5%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

SupremeLeader andGuardianCouncil

ElectedPresident and

Majlis

Refused toanswer

Don't know

53%

22%

7%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes No Refused toanswer

Don't know

23

Summary • Iranians divided on government’s performance. • Dissatisfied with economy. •Worry over sanctions and isolation. •Want to focus on domestic affairs. • Favor closer ties to the West. • Rising tensions sparked hostility toward the US, Europe and UN. • Favor nuclear arms and do not want to back deals to halt enrichment. • Independent polls do not contradict official turnout of 2009 election, which gave around 60% of vote to Ahmadinejad. • Support to religious institutions remains substantial but majority expect democratization.

Key findings from national telephone survey of 702 Iranians between August 30 and Sept 7, 2010 include:

24

Methodology •We conducted 702 telephone interviews in Iran between August 30 and September 7, 2010. Some questions were asked to only half the sample. • The margin of error is 3.5% for the whole sample and 5% for half samples. • Respondents were a representative sample of the Iranian adult population. The results are weighted to match Iran’s demographics. • 85% of Iranians have telephones. • Tracking data from earlier national telephone polls: • WorldPublicOpinion.org polls taken in December 2006 and September 2009. • Globescan and University of Maryland polls taken in June 2009. • Terror Free Tomorrow polls taken in June 2007, February 2008 and May 2009.

Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear and Domestic Issues

Documents

Transcript of Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear and Domestic Issues