Iran Nuke Forensics

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Materials Science & Engineering Iranian Nuclear Program Alex L. Arias Materials Science & Engineering Dept. University of Florida Alex L. Arias- WSU Nuclear Forensics Summer School – July 20, 2011

Transcript of Iran Nuke Forensics

Materials Science & Engineering

Iranian Nuclear Program

Alex L. Arias Materials Science & Engineering Dept.

University of Florida

Alex L. Arias- WSU Nuclear Forensics Summer School – July 20, 2011

Materials Science & Engineering

Outline

•  History of Iran •  Current Facilities in Iran

– Natanz – Qom: Fordo

•  Weaponization •  Monitoring

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Materials Science & Engineering

History of Iran

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•  Atoms for peace 1950s •  Revolution in 1979 •  Ousted Pro-Western Shah (King) •  Ayatollah Khomeini became leader

of movement and declared Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran

•  Disorganized revolution that violated international law by taking over American embassy in Tehran.

•  Conflicting reports on nuclear operations and clandestine enrichment facilities.

Materials Science & Engineering

Current Facilities2

•  Current enrichment facilities: – Natanz – Qom/Fordo

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Materials Science & Engineering

Natanz1

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•  Started operations in February 2007 •  Produced 4,105 kg of LEU since

then •  Between October 18th, 2010 and

May 13, 2011 •  Produced 970 kg of LEU

•  Environmental samples at the site show the facility has been operating as declared according to the IAEA

•  Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) •  Declared to produce Uranium 20% U-235 enriched •  Using LEU feed to produce HEU (328 centrifuges) •  31.6 kg of UF6 enriched from September 19th, 2010 to May 21st, 2011 •  Environmental samples indicate facility operating as declared

Materials Science & Engineering

Fordo1

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•  Fordo fuel enrichment plant (FFEP) declared for construction on September 2009 •  For production of UF6 enriched up to 5% U-235 •  16 cascades with a total of approx 3000 centrifuges

•  IAEA unable to confirm the chronology of the cronstruction of the plant since Iran has restricted this information citing that there is no legal basis upon which the Agency may request this information. •  IAEA feels it does have legal grounds to request such

information.

•  Environmental samples collected on February 2010 do not inidicate the presence of the presence of enriched uranium.

•  No centrifuges have been installed.

Materials Science & Engineering

Weaponization4

•  With HEU a covert plant can be constructed as small as 500 m2 –  Impossible to detect with satellite imagery

•  Iranian clandestine operations may have P-2 type centrifuges –  ~5 kg-SWUs per year each –  Most likely will start with 20% enriched Uranium from Natanz plant

•  Assume 90% U-235 bomb –  Only 30 kg required for simple bomb

•  Time required for production if –  12 cascade plant with preenriched feed-stock –  90 kg/year –  Within half a year have enough WGP for 1 bomb

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Materials Science & Engineering

Monitoring1,4

•  Continue taking environmental samples •  Monitor construction of planned

processing and enrichment plants •  Centrifugation plants operate with

cylinders under atmospheric pressure so leakage is undetectable

•  Waste monitoring

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Materials Science & Engineering

References

1.  “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran”, The International Atomic Energy Agency, June 9th, 2011

2.  “Iran Facilities Map”, NTI.org, accessed June 18, 2011 3.  “Iran Nuclear Profile”, NTI.org 4.  “The gas centrifuge and nuclear weapons proliferation”, H.G. Wood et. al., Physics Today,

p. 40, September 2008.

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Materials Science & Engineering

Nuclear Forensics Investigation: Iran

Alex L. Arias Materials Science & Engineering Dept.

University of Florida

Alex L. Arias- WSU Nuclear Forensics Summer School – July 20, 2011