IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report
description
Transcript of IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report
![Page 1: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
IPv4 Address Exhaustion:A Progress ReportGeoff Huston
Chief Scientist, APNIC
![Page 2: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history
![Page 3: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history
…of making very poor technology choices
![Page 4: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The mainstream telecommunications industry has a rich history
…of making very poor technology guesses
and regularly being taken bysurprise!
![Page 5: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
So, how are we going with the IPv4 to IPv6 transition?
![Page 6: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Do we really need to worry about this?
![Page 7: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Do we really need to worry about this?
Surely IPv6 will just happen – its just a matterof waiting for the pressure of Ipv4 addressexhaustion to get to sufficient levels of intensity.
![Page 8: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Do we really need to worry about this?
Surely IPv6 will just happen – its just a matterof waiting for the pressure of Ipv4 addressexhaustion to get to sufficient levels of intensity.
Or maybe not – let’s look a bit closer at the situation ...
![Page 9: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The “inevitability” of technological evolution
![Page 10: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The “inevitability” of technological evolution
![Page 12: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
![Page 13: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Well what did you expect? They are VIRTUAL circuits, so a picture was always going to be a challenge!
13
![Page 14: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The “inevitability” of technological evolution
![Page 15: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
The “inevitability” of technological evolution
Now lets look at something a little more topical to today!
![Page 17: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The “inevitability” of technological evolution?
![Page 18: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The “inevitability” of technological evolution?
![Page 19: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The challenge often lies in managing the transition from one technology to another
![Page 20: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Option 1: Flag Day!
We all agree to turn off IPv4 and turn on IPv6 EVERYWHEREAll at the same time! All over the Internet!
![Page 21: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Option 1: Flag Day!
We all agree to turn off IPv4 and turn on IPv6 EVERYWHEREAll at the same time! All over the Internet!
We’re just too big!
![Page 22: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Option 2: Parallel Transition!
We start to slide in IPv6 in parallel with Ipv4Then we gradually phase out IPv6
![Page 23: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
For this to work we have to start early and finish BEFORE IPv4 address pool exhaustion
IPv6 Deployment
Time
IPv6 Transition – Dual StackIPv4 Pool Size
Size of the Internet
Option 2: Parallel Transition!
![Page 24: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Option 2: Parallel Transition!
We start to slide in IPv6 in parallel with Ipv4Then we gradually phase out IPv6
We’re just too late!
The small print: It’s incredibly difficult for markets to plan without clear price signals, and we never managed to price future scarcity into the Internet model. Our chosen address distribution model was one that deliberately avoided any form of price-based market signaling. We sort of hoped that operators would price future risk. We were very wrong!
![Page 25: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Hybrid IPv4
The increasing scarcity of Ipv4 will force carriage providers to
add address sharing mechanisms into the IPv4
network
+CGNs +ALGs
IPv4
![Page 26: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNs
The challenge often lies in managing the transition from one technology to another
To get from “here” to “there” requires an excursion through an environment of CGNs, CDNs, ALGs and similar middleware ‘solutions’ to IPv4 address exhaustion
![Page 27: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNsTransition requires the network owner to undertake capital investment in network service infrastructure to support IPv4 address sharing/rationing.
But will this be merely a temporary phase of transition?
![Page 28: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNsTransition requires the network owner to undertake capital investment in network service infrastructure to support IPv4 address sharing/rationing.
What lengths will the network owner then go to to protect the value of this additional investment by locking itself into this “transitional” service model for an extended/indefinite period?
But will this be merely a temporary phase of transition?
![Page 29: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
The risk in this transition phase is that the Internet heads off in a completely different direction!
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNs
The challenge often lies in managing the transition from one technology to another
![Page 30: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
A digression...
30
How “real” is this risk?
![Page 31: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
![Page 32: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
A digression...
32
How “real” is this risk?
Is this industry seriously prepared to contemplate an
IPv4 forever strategy?
![Page 33: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Some Measurements49% of the IPv4 transit networks appear to be dual stack capable~50% of the Internet’s end devices have an installed IPv6 stack
33
![Page 34: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
IPv6 capability, as seen by Google
34
http://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics/
In May 2012 only 0.6% of users access to Google’s dual stack
services used IPv6
![Page 35: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Where is it?
http://labs.apnic.net/index.shtml% of end users with IPv6
![Page 36: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
United States
![Page 37: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
France
![Page 38: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
China
![Page 39: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
UK
![Page 40: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Some Measurements49% of the IPv4 transit networks appear to be dual stack capable48% of the Internet’s end devices have an installed IPv6 stack that can be tickled into life0.6% of the Internet’s end devices have native IPv6 delivered to them
40
![Page 41: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Some Measurements49% of the IPv4 transit networks appear to be dual stack capable48% of the Internet’s end devices have an installed IPv6 stack0.6% of the Internet’s end devices have native IPv6 delivered to them 41
Where’s the problem here?
![Page 42: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
The last mile access service business is not doing IPv6 because:
A) they are stupidB) they are lazyC) they are uninformedD) they are brokeE) they operate in an economic and
business regime that makes provisioning IPv6 an unattractive investment option for them
42
![Page 43: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
The last mile access service business is not doing IPv6 because:
A) they are stupidB) they are lazyC) they are uninformedD) they are brokeE) they operate in an economic and
business regime that makes provisioning IPv6 an unattractive investment option for them
43
Hint!
![Page 44: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Economics!
![Page 45: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Economics!The Internet’s last mile access is mired in commodity utility economics. Relentless competition has resulted in a sector where margins are thin. A move to IPv6 represents expenditure without immediate revenue gain.
This is classic case of economic dislocation in an unbundled industry, where expenditure in one sector:-carriage- yields benefits in another sector: -content-
![Page 46: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
The last mile access service business is not doing IPv6 because:
A) they are stupidB) they are lazyC) they are uninformedD) they are brokeE) they operate in an economic and
business regime that makes provisioning IPv6 an unattractive investment option for them
46
Why is IPv6 such an unattractive
business proposition for Carriage Providers?
![Page 47: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
47
Back to networking basics....
![Page 48: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
48
The historical vertically integrated service architecture
Telco nostalgia...
![Page 49: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
49
Devolution of the integratedservice architecture throughan open IP service architectureand deregulation
![Page 50: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
50
Devolution of the integratedservice architectureWhere’s the money to invest
in new network services?
![Page 51: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
51
Users Services
Access Provider
![Page 52: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52
Users Services
CGN
Access Provider
Gatekeeper
![Page 53: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53
Users Services
GLA
CGNs and ALGs and similar IPv4 rationing middleware devices provide control points in the IPv4 network that allow monetary extraction from both consumers and content providers
Access Provider
![Page 54: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
A digression...
54
How “real” is this risk?
Is this industry seriously prepared to contemplate an
IPv4 forever strategy?Yes – it’s a possibility!
![Page 55: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
55
![Page 56: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
How can we “manage” this transition?
![Page 57: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
How can we “manage” this transition?
To ensure that the industry maintains a collective focus on IPv6 as the objective of this exercise!
![Page 58: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
How can we “manage” this transition?
To ensure that the industry maintains a collective focus on IPv6 as the objective of this exercise!
And to ensure that we do not get distracted by attempting to optimize what were intended to be temporary measures
![Page 59: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
How can we “manage” this transition?
This was always going to be a very hard question to try and answer!
![Page 60: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
How can we “manage” this transition?
This was always going to be a very hard question to try and answer!
And the data on IPv6 update so far suggests that we are still not managing this at all well. Progress at the customer edge of the network with IPv6 access is glacial.
![Page 61: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
How can we “manage” this transition?
This was always going to be a very hard question to try and answer!
And at the moment we seem to be making the task even harder, not easier, by adding even more challenges into the path we need to follow!
![Page 62: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment
![Page 63: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment
It is NOT a case of a single “either/or” decision
?
![Page 64: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment
There are many different playersEach with their own perspective
?
??
? ?? ??? ?
???
?
??
? ?
?
??
![Page 65: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment
There are many different playersEach with their own perspective
?
And all potential approaches will be explored!
![Page 66: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan!
![Page 67: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
![Page 68: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
2. Varying IPv4 Address Exhaustion Timelines
![Page 69: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
IPv4 Address Exhaustion – APNIC
![Page 70: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Remaining IPv4 Address Pools–All RIRs
![Page 71: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
Address Exhaustion Projections
![Page 72: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Exhaustion PredictionsRIR Predicted Exhaustion Date * Remaining Address Pool
(2 Oct 2011)
APNIC 19 April 2011 (actual) 0.93 /8s
RIPE NCC 28 July 2012 1.84 /8s
ARIN 4 February 2013 3.54 /8s
LACNIC 17 January 2014 3.49 /8s
AFRINIC 28 Oct 2014 4.20 /8s
* Here “exhaustion” is defined as the point when the RIR’s remaining pool falls to 1 /8
![Page 73: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
So what?
73
![Page 74: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Reality Acceptance
74
![Page 75: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Reality Acceptance Or not
75
![Page 76: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Reality Acceptance Or not
76
Is IPv4 address exhaustion a “here and now”problem or a “some time in the future”problem?
![Page 77: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Reality Acceptance Or not
77
Is IPv4 address exhaustion a “here and now”problem or a “some time in the future”problem?
Well, that depends on where you happen to be! If it hasn’t happened to you yet, then denial is still an option!
![Page 78: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Reality Acceptance Or not
78
It’s not happening until its happening to me!
Is IPv4 address exhaustion a “here and now”problem or a “some time in the future”problem?
![Page 79: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
2. Varying IPv4 Address Exhaustion Timelines There is a credibility problem!
![Page 80: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
2. Varying IPv4 Address Exhaustion Timelines There is a credibility problem: This industry has a hard time believing reality over its own mythology
![Page 81: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Challenges:
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
2. Varying IPv4 Address Exhaustion Timelines There is a credibility problem: This industry has a hard time believing reality over its own mythology
3. Regional Diversity
![Page 82: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNs
APNICRIPE NCC
LACNIC
AFRINIC
ARIN
Today
![Page 83: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNsAPNIC
RIPE NCCLACNIC
AFRINIC
ARIN
2013
![Page 84: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
By 2013 it is possible that different regions of the world will be experiencing very different market pressures for the provision of Internet services, due to differing transitional pressures from IPv4 exhaustion
![Page 85: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
By 2013 it is possible that different regions of the world will be experiencing very different market pressures for the provision of Internet services, due to differing transitional pressures from IPv4 exhaustion
What’s the level of risk that the differing environments of transition lead to significantly different outcomes in each region?
![Page 86: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
By 2013 it is possible that different regions of the world will be experiencing very different market pressures for the provision of Internet services, due to differing transitional pressures from IPv4 exhaustion
What’s the level of risk that the differing environments of transition lead to significantly different outcomes in each region?
Will we continue to maintain coherency of a single Internet through this transition?
![Page 87: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
The Myth of the Long Term Plan
87
![Page 88: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
The Myth of the Long Term Plan
“Transition will take many years... 5 years, maybe 10 years, maybe longer”
88
![Page 89: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
The Myth of the Long Term Plan
“Transition will take many years... 5 years, maybe 10 years, maybe longer”
89
Are we still firmly committed to the plans we had 5 years ago?
![Page 90: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
The Myth of the Long Term Plan
“Transition will take many years... 5 years, maybe 10 years, maybe longer”
90
Are we still firmly committed to the plans we had 5 years ago? How about our 10 year old plans?
![Page 91: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
The Myth of the Long Term Plan
“Transition will take many years... 5 years, maybe 10 years, maybe longer”
91
Are we still committed to the plans we had 5 years ago? How about our 10 year old plans?
The longer the period of transition, the higher the risk of completely losing the plot and heading into other directions!
![Page 92: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
CGNs
ALGs CDNs
APNIC
RIPE NCC
LACNICAFRINIC
ARIN201x?
![Page 93: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
IPv4
IPv6
Asia
Europe / Mid East
S. AmericaAfrica
20xx?
N. America
![Page 94: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
Challenges:
94
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
2. Varying IPv4 Address Exhaustion Timelines There is a credibility problem: This industry has a hard time believing reality over its own mythology
3. Regional DiversityOne network is not an assured outcome!
![Page 95: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Challenges:
95
1. This is a deregulated and highly competitive environment There is no plan, just the interplay of various market pressures
2. Varying IPv4 Address Exhaustion Timelines There is a credibility problem: This industry has a hard time believing reality over its own mythology
3. Regional DiversityOne network is not an assured outcome:
Market pressures during an extended transition may push the Internet along different paths in each region
![Page 96: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
This situation represents a period of considerable uncertainty for our
industry
![Page 97: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
This situation represents a period of considerable uncertainty for our
industryHow long will this
transition take?
If I wait will equipment get cheaper or will the user experience get worse?
If we deploy CGNs to keep
IPv4 running, then how long
should we plan to keep them
in service?
How big should these
CGNs be?
Should all users be
shunted through a CGN?
What is going to break?
Is Ipv6 really ready for prime time yet?
Will turning on
IPv6 increase my
helpdesk call rate?
How much is all this going to cost?
Can I afford it? Will my revenue base sustain this additional cost?
![Page 98: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
if what we are after as an open and accessible platform for further network growth and innovation then the public interest in a continuing open and accessible network needs to be expressed within the dynamics of market pressures.
Today’s question is: How can we do this?
98
![Page 99: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
How can we help the Internet through this transition?
99
![Page 100: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
How can we help the Internet through this transition?
Or at least, how can we avoid making it any worse than it is now?
100
![Page 101: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
101
![Page 102: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Yes, that was intentionally left blank!
I really don’t know what will work.
And as far as I can see, nor does anyone else!
102
![Page 103: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
But even though I don’t have an
answer here, I have some thoughts to offer about this
issue of pulling the Internet though this
transition103
![Page 104: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
Three thoughts...
104
!!!
![Page 105: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
FirstlyIf we want one working Internet at the end of all this, then keep an eye on the larger picture
Think about what is our common interest hereand try to find ways for local interests to converge with our common interest in a single cohesive network that remains open, neutral, and accessible
105
![Page 106: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
SecondlyAddresses should be used in working networks, not hoarded or “safeguarded”
Scarcity generates pain and uncertaintyExtended scarcity prolongs the pain and increases the unpredictability of the entire transition processNo matter how hard we may want it to be otherwise, “scarcity” and “fairness” are not synonyms!
106
![Page 107: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
Finally...Bring it on! A rapid onset of exhaustion and a rapid transition represents the best chance of achieving an IPv6 network as an outcome
The more time we spend investing time, money and effort in deploying IPv4 address extension mechanisms, the greater the pain to our customers, and the higher the risk that we will lose track of the intended temporary nature of transition and the greater the chances that we will forget about IPv6 as the objective!
107
![Page 108: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
![Page 109: IPv4 Address Exhaustion: A Progress Report](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022062812/5681628e550346895dd2fb65/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
Thank You!