IPv4 address IPv4 address exhaustionexhaustion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustionIPv4_address_exhaustion

11

What exactly is "IPv4 exhaustion"?What exactly is "IPv4 exhaustion"? IPv4 exhaustion IPv4 exhaustion doesn’t mean that the doesn’t mean that the

Internet will stop working. Internet will stop working. Instead, IPv4 exhaustion is the term used Instead, IPv4 exhaustion is the term used

to describe when there will be no more to describe when there will be no more unallocated IPv4 addresses unallocated IPv4 addresses available. available.

But this will happen is several stages, and But this will happen is several stages, and not necessarily in the order below:not necessarily in the order below:• IANA exhausted its IPv4 free pool (3 Feb 2011)IANA exhausted its IPv4 free pool (3 Feb 2011)• RIRs exhaust their unallocated poolsRIRs exhaust their unallocated pools• Expanding networks (ISPs, businesses, etc) Expanding networks (ISPs, businesses, etc)

exhaust their pools of unused addressesexhaust their pools of unused addresses

22

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion Depletion of the pool of unallocated IPv4 (Depletion of the pool of unallocated IPv4 (

Internet Protocol Version 4) addresses. ) addresses. The The IP address space is managed by the space is managed by the

Internet Assigned Numbers Authority ((IANAIANA) ) globally, and by five globally, and by five regional Internet registries (RIRs) (RIRs) responsible in their designated territories for responsible in their designated territories for assignment to end users and assignment to end users and local Internet registries, such as , such as Internet service providers..

IANA also manages autonomous system IANA also manages autonomous system ((ASAS) ) numbers,numbers, root zoneroot zone management in the Domain management in the Domain Name System (DNS), Name System (DNS), media typesmedia types, , and other and other IP-IP-related symbols and numbersrelated symbols and numbers

IANA is operated by the Internet Corporation for IANA is operated by the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, ICANN.Assigned Names and Numbers, ICANN.

33

Regional Internet RegistryRegional Internet Registry ( (RIRRIR)) An organization that manages the An organization that manages the

allocation and registration of allocation and registration of Internet number resources within a resources within a particular region of the world. particular region of the world.

Internet number resources include Internet number resources include IP addresses and and autonomous system (AS) numbers. numbers.

twnic in Taiwan (twnic in Taiwan (www.twnic.net.tw))

44

Regional Internet RegistryRegional Internet Registry ( (RIRRIR)) African Network Information Centre African Network Information Centre ((AfriNICAfriNIC):):

• Africa Africa American Registry for Internet NumbersAmerican Registry for Internet Numbers ( (ARINARIN):):

• the United States, Canada, and several parts of the United States, Canada, and several parts of the Caribbean region.the Caribbean region.

Asia-Pacific Network Information CentreAsia-Pacific Network Information Centre ( (APNICAPNIC): ): • Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and neighboring Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and neighboring

countries countries Latin America and Caribbean Network Information Latin America and Caribbean Network Information

CentreCentre ( (LACNICLACNIC): ): • Latin America and parts of the Caribbean region Latin America and parts of the Caribbean region

RRééseaux IP Europseaux IP Europééens Network ens Network Coordination CentreCoordination Centre ( (RIPERIPE): ): • Europe, the Middle East, and Europe, the Middle East, and

Central Asia Central Asia 55

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion On 31 January 2011, the last two unreserved On 31 January 2011, the last two unreserved

IANA /8 address blocks were allocated to APNIC IANA /8 address blocks were allocated to APNIC according to RIR request procedures. according to RIR request procedures.

This left five reserved but unallocated /8 blocks. In This left five reserved but unallocated /8 blocks. In accord with ICANN policies, IANA proceeded to accord with ICANN policies, IANA proceeded to allocate one of those five /8s to each RIR, allocate one of those five /8s to each RIR, exhausting the IANA poolexhausting the IANA pool

66

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion At a news conference in Miami (At a news conference in Miami (February 3, 2011February 3, 2011) )

the ICANN announced (the ICANN announced (released-PDF) that it has ) that it has distributed the last batch of its remaining IPv4 distributed the last batch of its remaining IPv4 addresses to the worldaddresses to the world’’s five RIRs that manage IP s five RIRs that manage IP addresses in different regions. These Registries will addresses in different regions. These Registries will begin assigning the final IPv4 addresses begin assigning the final IPv4 addresses withinwithin their regions until they run out completely.their regions until they run out completely.

APNICAPNIC is expected to be the first RIR to exhaust its is expected to be the first RIR to exhaust its allocated pool with assignment to customers in allocated pool with assignment to customers in mid-2011, mid-2011, EuropeEurope will be next, probably towards will be next, probably towards the end of 2011, and the end of 2011, and North AmericaNorth America will follow will follow sometime in 2012. sometime in 2012.

APNIC APNIC IPv4 exhaustion details (link)

77

APNIC IPv4 exhaustion The policy aims to ensure that new and emerging networks The policy aims to ensure that new and emerging networks

can continue to receive a small amount of IPv4 for many can continue to receive a small amount of IPv4 for many years to come so they can connect to both IPv4 and IPv6 years to come so they can connect to both IPv4 and IPv6 networks during the transition to IPv6.networks during the transition to IPv6.

Under this policy, Asia Pacific organizations can each Under this policy, Asia Pacific organizations can each request one, and only one, small slice (a /22, or 1024 request one, and only one, small slice (a /22, or 1024 addresses) of the final /8.addresses) of the final /8.

There are a total of around 16,000 small slices that can be There are a total of around 16,000 small slices that can be given out from this final /8. Currently, APNIC has around given out from this final /8. Currently, APNIC has around 3000 account holders and had a membership growth rate of 3000 account holders and had a membership growth rate of 300 new accounts during the past year. 300 new accounts during the past year. 

In addition, each year, APNIC receives a number of returned In addition, each year, APNIC receives a number of returned addresses as businesses close down. APNIC will continue to addresses as businesses close down. APNIC will continue to recycle these addresses and make them available to recycle these addresses and make them available to account holders.account holders.

88

APNIC IPs exhaustionAPNIC IPs exhaustion As of March 6, 2011, APNIC had 3.89 /8 blocks left. As of March 6, 2011, APNIC had 3.89 /8 blocks left.

APNIC used 1.4 /8 blocks in January 2011.APNIC used 1.4 /8 blocks in January 2011. The last /8 blockThe last /8 block

• APNIC continue normal allocation until the last free /8 block. APNIC continue normal allocation until the last free /8 block. • Then, only allocate one Then, only allocate one /22 block/22 block (1024 IPs, minimum (1024 IPs, minimum

allocation size), to eachallocation size), to each local Internet registrylocal Internet registry ( (LIRLIR). ). • Typically, 99.2% of address space is allocated in larger Typically, 99.2% of address space is allocated in larger

blocks, accounting for 57% of allocations. blocks, accounting for 57% of allocations. • Currently 3000 LIRs in APNIC, 300 new LIRs added in 2010. Currently 3000 LIRs in APNIC, 300 new LIRs added in 2010.

Due to 16384 /22 blocks in final /8 block, this last /8 block Due to 16384 /22 blocks in final /8 block, this last /8 block expects expects to last for many yearsto last for many years to assist deployment of IPv6.to assist deployment of IPv6.

• The timeThe time when when APNIC reaches its final /8 blockAPNIC reaches its final /8 block is generally is generally regarded as regarded as the main exhaustion event in IPv4 historythe main exhaustion event in IPv4 history, as , as LIR organizations will have a much harder time getting their LIR organizations will have a much harder time getting their new systems or customers publicly online on IPv4. new systems or customers publicly online on IPv4.

• Moreover, the 300 new large and small LIRs per year at Moreover, the 300 new large and small LIRs per year at APNIC will only be able to obtain 1024 addresses from APNIC will only be able to obtain 1024 addresses from APNIC. This will have an impact on all organizations and APNIC. This will have an impact on all organizations and their customers worldwide due to the requirement for inter-their customers worldwide due to the requirement for inter-network communication.network communication. 99

APNIC IPs exhaustionAPNIC IPs exhaustion PredictionsPredictions

• APNIC announced on 1/31/2011, it expects to be announced on 1/31/2011, it expects to be down to the last /8 within down to the last /8 within three to six monthsthree to six months. . Geoff Huston's (APNIC) daily generated report Geoff Huston's (APNIC) daily generated report currently currently predicts Augustpredicts August. .

• The predicted date has however steadily been The predicted date has however steadily been getting earlier in the last year, with the exhaustion getting earlier in the last year, with the exhaustion date trending to May or June (Moreover, his analysis date trending to May or June (Moreover, his analysis wrongly assumes no special policy for the last /8 wrongly assumes no special policy for the last /8 which will be reached earlier than the specified which will be reached earlier than the specified date). date).

• Tony Haine (Cisco Systems) is making semi-weekly Tony Haine (Cisco Systems) is making semi-weekly updated graphs predicting mid-April. (His analysis updated graphs predicting mid-April. (His analysis does however not consider the use of the 1.57 /8 does however not consider the use of the 1.57 /8 blocks from the various/legacy pool.) Stephan blocks from the various/legacy pool.) Stephan Lagerholm's depletion-Tool is daily updated and Lagerholm's depletion-Tool is daily updated and predicts August in its default setting.predicts August in its default setting. 1010

APNIC IPs exhaustionAPNIC IPs exhaustion RIR-shoppingRIR-shopping

• When APNIC has only one /8 available, some When APNIC has only one /8 available, some organizations that usually request address space organizations that usually request address space from APNIC but have a presence in another territory from APNIC but have a presence in another territory may try to get address space from another RIR. may try to get address space from another RIR.

• RIR-shopping is viewed unfavorably in many policy RIR-shopping is viewed unfavorably in many policy discussions, and many users of large address space, discussions, and many users of large address space, such as ISPs with residential customers, have no such as ISPs with residential customers, have no significant presence abroad. Transfer from other significant presence abroad. Transfer from other RIRs are currently not allowed, but are under RIRs are currently not allowed, but are under discussion at ARIN as Proposal PP 119.discussion at ARIN as Proposal PP 119.

1111

EndgameEndgame for for IPs exhaustionIPs exhaustion By 2008, policy planning for the end-game and post-By 2008, policy planning for the end-game and post-

exhaustion era. exhaustion era. Several proposals have been discussed to mitigate end game Several proposals have been discussed to mitigate end game

shortages of IPv4 addresses.shortages of IPv4 addresses. Reclamation of unused IPv4 space Reclamation of unused IPv4 space

• IANA could potentially re-claim/re-issue the under-IANA could potentially re-claim/re-issue the under-utilized ranges in smaller blocks, the transfer policy utilized ranges in smaller blocks, the transfer policy from ARIN/RIPE/APNIC.from ARIN/RIPE/APNIC.

Drawback: expensive and time-consuming to re-Drawback: expensive and time-consuming to re-number a large network since organizations will likely number a large network since organizations will likely object, with legal conflicts possible. Even if all IPs were object, with legal conflicts possible. Even if all IPs were reclaimed, it would only postpone the date of address reclaimed, it would only postpone the date of address exhaustion.exhaustion.

• IP blocks have been allocated to entities that no IP blocks have been allocated to entities that no longer exist or never used. No strict accounting of IP longer exist or never used. No strict accounting of IP allocations has been undertaken, need a big effort to allocations has been undertaken, need a big effort to track down unused IPs, as many are only in use on track down unused IPs, as many are only in use on intranets..

1212

EndgameEndgame for for IPs exhaustionIPs exhaustion Reclamation of unused IPv4 space Reclamation of unused IPv4 space

• Some previously reserved blocks by IANA have Some previously reserved blocks by IANA have been added to available pool. been added to available pool.

• proposals to use proposals to use class E network IPs IPs (240.0.0.0/4), , but many computer and but many computer and router operating systems

and firmware canand firmware can’’t use these IPs. t use these IPs. For this reason, the proposals have sought not to For this reason, the proposals have sought not to

designate class E space for public assignment, but designate class E space for public assignment, but instead propose to permit private use for instead propose to permit private use for networks that require more address space than is networks that require more address space than is currently available through currently available through RFC 1918..

• Several organizations have returned large Several organizations have returned large blocks of IPs. Notably, blocks of IPs. Notably, Stanford University relinquished their relinquished their Class A IP block in 2000, IP block in 2000, making 16making 16  million IPs available. Other million IPs available. Other organizations done so include the US DoD, organizations done so include the US DoD, BBN Technologies, and , and Interop..

1313

EndgameEndgame for for IPs exhaustionIPs exhaustion ISP-wide network address translation (NAT)ISP-wide network address translation (NAT)

• When ISPs implement NAT within their network, they When ISPs implement NAT within their network, they may allocate private addresses to customers and may allocate private addresses to customers and need only one global scope address for a potentially need only one global scope address for a potentially large group of customers.large group of customers.

customers must use gateway for traffic to Internet.customers must use gateway for traffic to Internet. successfully implemented in country like successfully implemented in country like RussiaRussia, where , where

many broadband providers now use many broadband providers now use Carrier GradeCarrier Grade NATNAT, offer publicly routable IP at an additional cost, offer publicly routable IP at an additional cost

Research In Motion (RIM),Research In Motion (RIM), BlackBerry maker, currently BlackBerry maker, currently routes all Blackberry data to central network operating routes all Blackberry data to central network operating centers for encryption and decryption purposes; centers for encryption and decryption purposes; reducing the number of public IPs assignedreducing the number of public IPs assigned..

• However, ISP-wide NAT is However, ISP-wide NAT is not scalablenot scalable, and limited to , and limited to the number of the number of ports available (approximately 65000) available (approximately 65000) in the in the Transport Layer protocols. protocols.

NAT is not suitable for all applicationsNAT is not suitable for all applications1414

EndgameEndgame for for IPs exhaustionIPs exhaustion Markets in IP addresses Markets in IP addresses

• Create Create markets to buy and sell IPs, been proposed many to buy and sell IPs, been proposed many times as an efficient means of allocation. times as an efficient means of allocation.

• primary benefit is IPs would continue to be available. primary benefit is IPs would continue to be available. major drawbacks prevent their implementation follow:major drawbacks prevent their implementation follow:

only delay IP exhaustion for a relatively short time, only delay IP exhaustion for a relatively short time, since the public Internet is still growing. since the public Internet is still growing.

The concept of legal IP "ownership" as property is The concept of legal IP "ownership" as property is explicitly denied by ARIN/RIPE/ARIN NCC policy It is not explicitly denied by ARIN/RIPE/ARIN NCC policy It is not even clear in which country's legal system the lawsuits even clear in which country's legal system the lawsuits would be resolved. would be resolved.

The administration of such a scheme is outside the The administration of such a scheme is outside the experience of the current regional address registries. experience of the current regional address registries.

1515

EndgameEndgame for for IPs exhaustionIPs exhaustion Markets in IP addresses Markets in IP addresses

Ad-hoc IP trading would lead to fragmented patterns of Ad-hoc IP trading would lead to fragmented patterns of allocation, then vastly allocation, then vastly expand global routing tableexpand global routing table, , resulting in severe routing problems for many network resulting in severe routing problems for many network operators which still use older routers with limited operators which still use older routers with limited forwarding information base memory or low-powered forwarding information base memory or low-powered routing processors. routing processors.

This large cost placed on everyone who uses Internet This large cost placed on everyone who uses Internet by those that buy/sell IP addresses is a negative by those that buy/sell IP addresses is a negative economic externality that any market would need to economic externality that any market would need to correct for. correct for.

• Trading in IP blocks that are large enough to Trading in IP blocks that are large enough to prevent fragmentation problems would reduce the prevent fragmentation problems would reduce the number of potentially tradeable units to a few number of potentially tradeable units to a few million at most. million at most.

The cost of changing from one set of IPs to another is The cost of changing from one set of IPs to another is very high, reducing very high, reducing market liquidity. once bought, will . once bought, will not be resold without a large profit. The cost of not be resold without a large profit. The cost of renumbering an organization's IP address space each renumbering an organization's IP address space each time is comparable to the cost of switching to IPv6 time is comparable to the cost of switching to IPv6 once.once. 1616

EndgameEndgame for for IPs exhaustionIPs exhaustion IPv6IPv6

1717

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion The anticipated shortage has been the The anticipated shortage has been the

driving factor in creating and adopting driving factor in creating and adopting several several new technologiesnew technologies, including , including • Classless Inter-Domain Routing (CIDR) (CIDR) in 1993, in 1993, • network address translation (NAT), (NAT),• Internet Protocol, , IPv6IPv6, in 1998, , in 1998, • Use of Use of private network addressing, addressing, • Name-based Name-based virtual hosting of web sites, of web sites, • Tighter control by regional Internet registries on Tighter control by regional Internet registries on

allocating addresses to local Internet registries, allocating addresses to local Internet registries, • Network renumbering and subnetting to reclaim Network renumbering and subnetting to reclaim

large blocks of address space allocated in the large blocks of address space allocated in the early days of the Internet early days of the Internet

1818

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion The primary reason for IPv4 address The primary reason for IPv4 address

exhaustion is exhaustion is insufficient design insufficient design capacity of the original Internet capacity of the original Internet infrastructureinfrastructure

several additional driving factors have several additional driving factors have aggravated the shortcomings. aggravated the shortcomings.

Each of them increased the demand Each of them increased the demand on the limited supply of addresses, on the limited supply of addresses, often in ways unanticipated by the often in ways unanticipated by the original designers of the network.original designers of the network.

1919

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion Mobile devicesMobile devices

• IPv4 is the IPv4 is the de factode facto standard for networked digital standard for networked digital communication with low cost for embedding substantial communication with low cost for embedding substantial computing power into hand-held devices dropped. computing power into hand-held devices dropped.

• Mobile phones have become viable Internet hosts. New Mobile phones have become viable Internet hosts. New specifications of 4G devices require IPv6 addressing. specifications of 4G devices require IPv6 addressing.

Internet demographics Internet demographics • For the developed world, in 1990, only a small fraction For the developed world, in 1990, only a small fraction

had Internet connectivity. Just 15 years later, almost half had Internet connectivity. Just 15 years later, almost half of them had persistent broadband connections. Internet of them had persistent broadband connections. Internet users in countries (China and India) are also driving users in countries (China and India) are also driving address exhaustion. address exhaustion.

2020

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion Always-on connectionsAlways-on connections

• Throughout the 1990s, the predominant Internet Throughout the 1990s, the predominant Internet access was telephone modem dial-up. The rapid access was telephone modem dial-up. The rapid growth of the dial-up networks increased growth of the dial-up networks increased address consumption rates, although modem address consumption rates, although modem pools, and as a result, the pool of assigned IP pools, and as a result, the pool of assigned IP addresses, were shared amongst a larger addresses, were shared amongst a larger customer base. customer base.

• By 2007, broadband Internet access had exceed By 2007, broadband Internet access had exceed 50% penetration in many markets. Broadband 50% penetration in many markets. Broadband connections are always active, as the gateway connections are always active, as the gateway devices (routers, broadband modems) are rarely devices (routers, broadband modems) are rarely turned off, so that the address uptake by turned off, so that the address uptake by Internet service providers continued at an Internet service providers continued at an accelerating pace. accelerating pace.

2121

IPv4 address exhaustionIPv4 address exhaustion Inefficient address use Inefficient address use

• Organizations (1980s) were often allocated far more IPs Organizations (1980s) were often allocated far more IPs than needed, because initial method was inadequate to than needed, because initial method was inadequate to reflect reasonable usage, e.g., large companies or reflect reasonable usage, e.g., large companies or universities were assigned class A blocks, because class B universities were assigned class A blocks, because class B block was too small. block was too small.

• OrganizationsOrganizations’’s public IPs are not accessible outside LAN. s public IPs are not accessible outside LAN. From a global address allocation viewpoint, this is From a global address allocation viewpoint, this is inefficient, but scenarios exist where this is preferred in inefficient, but scenarios exist where this is preferred in organizational network implementation strategies. organizational network implementation strategies.

• Due to inefficiencies of subnetting, difficult to use all Due to inefficiencies of subnetting, difficult to use all addresses in a block. Host-density ratio (RFC 3194) a IP addresses in a block. Host-density ratio (RFC 3194) a IP utilization metric.utilization metric.

VirtualizationVirtualization• With advances in hardware performance and processor With advances in hardware performance and processor

features of server systems and the advent of features of server systems and the advent of sophisticated hardware abstraction layers it became sophisticated hardware abstraction layers it became possible to host many instantiations of an operating possible to host many instantiations of an operating system on a single computer. Each of these systems may system on a single computer. Each of these systems may require a public IP address. require a public IP address. 2222

IPv4 Subnet ClassesIPv4 Subnet Classes

2323