Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Core Political...
Transcript of Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Core Political...
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11.25.2015
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
Core Political Approval
2
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
November 21-25, 2015
For the survey,
a sample of
964 Americans
including
362 Democrats
352 Republicans
129 Independents
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
3
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
3.6
for all adults
5.9
Democrats
6.0
Republicans
9.8
Independents
4
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
─ Gender
─ Age
─ Education
─ Ethnicity
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.
5
RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
24%
64%
12%
All Adults 43%
41%
15%
Democrats
8%
89%
2%
Republicans
19%
67%
14%
Independents
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t Know
6
BARACK OBAMA Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 22% 43% 7% 7%
Somewhat approve 18% 32% 5% 17%
Lean towards approve 2% 3% % 1%
Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 2% 4%
Somewhat disapprove 15% 9% 18% 21%
Strongly disapprove 35% 8% 67% 43%
Not sure 6% 4% 1% 6%
TOTAL APPROVE 42% 77% 13% 26%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 53% 19% 87% 69%
7
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?
Total (n=602)
Republican (n=352)
Independent (n=129)
Donald Trump 31% 37% 31%
Benjamin Carson 7% 9% 7%
Jeb Bush 7% 6% 13%
Ted Cruz 7% 11% 2%
Marco Rubio 6% 10% 1%
Carly Fiorina 3% 3% 7%
Chris Christie 3% 4% 5%
Rand Paul 2% 2% 3%
Mike Huckabee 2% 3% 3%
John Kasich 2% 3% 2%
Jim Gilmore 2% 3% *%
Rick Santorum *% *% *%
Lindsey Graham *% *% *%
George Pataki 1% 2% *%
Wouldn’t vote 25% 6% 26%
TOP 3
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
8
Regardless of your personal preference, if the Republican Presidential Primaries came down to these candidates, for whom would you vote?
Total (n=602)
Republican (n=352)
Independent (n=129)
Donald Trump 39% 46% 39%
Benjamin Carson 19% 24% 17%
Marco Rubio 16% 25% 11%
Wouldn’t vote 25% 6% 33%
TOP
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
9
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential in one year’s time, in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?
Total (n=612)
Democrat (n=362)
Independent (n=129)
Hillary Clinton 46% 58% 42%
Bernie Sanders 26% 30% 22%
Martin O’Malley 5% 6% 7%
Wouldn’t vote 23% 6% 29%
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES
10
Weekly Presidential Approval
41%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan
1-7
, 20
12
Jan
15
-21
, 20
12Fe
b 5
-11
, 20
12Fe
b 1
9-2
5, 2
012
Mar
4-M
ar 1
0, 2
012
Mar
18-
24
, 20
12
Ap
r 1
-7, 2
01
2A
pr
15
-21
, 20
12A
pr
29
-May
5, 2
01
2M
ay 1
3-1
9, 2
01
2M
ay 2
7-J
un
2, 2
012
Jun
10-
16
, 20
12
Jun
24-
Jun
30,
201
2Ju
l 8-1
4, 2
012
Jul 2
2-2
8, 2
012
Au
g 5
-11,
20
12
Au
g 1
9-2
5, 2
01
2Se
pt
2-8
, 20
12Se
pt
16-
22
, 20
12Se
pt
30
-Oct
6, 2
012
Oct
14
-20
, 20
12O
ct 2
8-N
ov
3, 2
01
2N
ov
11
-17
, 201
2N
ov
25
-Dec
1, 2
012
Dec
9-1
5, 2
012
Dec
23
-29
, 20
12Ja
n 8
-14
, 20
13Ja
n 2
2-2
8, 2
013
Feb
5-1
1, 2
013
Feb
19
-25,
201
3M
ar 5
-Mar
11
, 20
13M
ar 1
9-2
5, 2
01
3A
pr
2-8
, 20
13
Ap
r 1
6-2
2, 2
013
Ap
r 3
0-M
ay 6
, 20
13
May
14
-20,
20
13
May
28
-Ju
n 3
, 201
3Ju
n 1
1-1
7, 2
01
3Ju
n 2
5-Ju
l 1, 2
013
Jul 9
-15
, 20
13Ju
l 23-
29,
201
3A
ug
6-1
2, 2
01
3A
ug
20
-26
, 20
13
Sep
t 3
-9, 2
013
Sep
t 1
7-2
3, 2
013
Oct
1-7
, 20
13
Oct
15
-21
, 20
13O
ct 2
9-N
ov
4, 2
01
3N
ov
12
-18
, 201
3N
ov
26
-Dec
2, 2
013
Dec
10
-16
, 20
13D
ec 2
4-3
0, 2
013
Jan
8-1
4, 2
014
Jan
22
-28
, 20
14Fe
b 5
-11
, 20
14Fe
b 1
9-2
5, 2
014
Mar
5-M
ar 1
1, 2
014
Mar
19-
25
, 20
14
Ap
r 2
-8, 2
01
4A
pr
16
-22
, 20
14A
pr
30
-May
6, 2
01
4M
ay 1
4-2
0, 2
01
4M
ay 2
8-J
un
3, 2
014
Jun
11-
17
, 20
14
Jun
25-
Jul 1
, 20
14Ju
l 9-1
5, 2
014
Jul 2
3-2
9, 2
014
Au
g 1
3-1
9, 2
01
4A
ug
27-
Sep
t 2
, 20
14Se
pt
10-
16
, 20
14O
ct 1
-7, 2
01
4O
ct 1
5-2
1, 2
014
Oct
29
-No
v 4
, 20
14
No
v 2
6-D
ec 1
, 201
4D
ec 1
0-1
6, 2
014
Jan
1-7
, 20
15
Jan
15
-21
, 20
15Ja
n 2
9-F
eb 4
, 20
15
Feb
. 12
-18
, 20
15
Mar
ch 5
-11,
201
5M
arch
19
-25,
201
5A
pri
l 2-8
, 20
15
Ap
ril 1
6-2
2, 2
01
5A
pri
l 30
-May
6, 2
01
5M
ay 2
1-2
7, 2
01
5Ju
n 4
- Ju
n 1
0, 2
01
5Ju
n 1
8- J
un
24,
201
5Ju
ly 1
-Ju
ly 7
, 20
15
July
22
- Ju
ly 2
8, 2
01
5A
ug
5-
Au
g 1
1, 2
015
Au
g 1
9- A
ug
25
, 20
15Se
pt
3-9
, 20
15Se
pt
17-
23
, 20
15O
cto
ber
1-7
, 20
15
Oct
ob
er 1
5-2
1, 2
01
5O
cto
ber
28
-No
v 3
, 20
15N
ove
mb
er 1
1-1
7, 2
015
TOTAL - DISAPPROVE
TOTAL – APPROVE
For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document
11
CORE POLITICAL APPROVAL In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=873)
All Adults (n=873) Democratic
Party Republican
Party Independents Other None Don’t know
DEM/REP PARTY DIFF
Healthcare 29% 27% 7% 2% 12% 23% 2%
The war on terror 19% 32% 5% 2% 15% 27% -13%
Iran 17% 29% 5% 3% 15% 32% -12%
The US Economy 23% 30% 8% 1% 11% 26% -7%
Immigration 23% 32% 7% 2% 12% 24% -9%
Social Security 28% 22% 7% 2% 14% 27% 6%
Medicare 28% 24% 6% 2% 14% 25% 4%
Taxes 24% 29% 7% 2% 13% 24% -4%
Gay marriage 30% 22% 7% 2% 12% 27% 8%
Jobs and employment 27% 29% 6% 2% 11% 24% -2%
The federal government deficit 19% 28% 7% 2% 18% 27% -8%
Supporting small businesses 25% 27% 9% 2% 10% 27% -2%
Education 27% 22% 8% 1% 14% 27% 5%
Foreign policy 21% 30% 7% 2% 11% 28% -9%
Women’s rights 36% 19% 8% 2% 10% 26% 17%
The environment 34% 19% 7% 3% 11% 26% 15%
Israel 16% 29% 6% 2% 15% 32% -13%
Syria 16% 26% 6% 2% 16% 34% -10%
Energy policy 27% 25% 6% 1% 11% 30% 2%
TOP
Democrats
Republicans
12
36% 34%
30% 29% 28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 24% 23% 23%
21% 19% 19%
17% 16% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=873)
Democratic Party
13
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=873)
Republican Party
32% 32% 30% 30% 29% 29% 29% 29% 28% 27% 27% 26% 25% 24%
22% 22% 22% 19% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
14
17% 15%
8% 6% 5% 4%
2% 2%
-2% -2% -4%
-7% -8% -9% -9% -10%
-12% -13% -13% -15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
In your opinion, which political party has a better plan, policy or approach to each of the following? (n=873)
Democratic/Republican Party Difference
Democrat Advantage
Republican Advantage
15
Party Identification All Adults: n= 964
15%
19%
5%
9%
13%
10%
15%
9%
5%
39%
32%
15%
14%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK
Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK
16
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.e., Y|θ~Bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
17
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.
SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.