Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Core Political...
Transcript of Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters Core Political...
© 2016 Ipsos 1
Core Political Data
04.27.2016
Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
2
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted
for date
April 23-27, 2016
For the survey,
a sample of
2,116Americans
including
921Democrats
762Republicans
245Independents
18+
ages
w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e
3
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.
In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.
2.4
for all adults
3.7
Democrats
4.0
Republicans
7.1
Independents
© 2016 Ipsos 4
The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:
–Gender
– Age
– Education
– Ethnicity
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.
Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.
To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.
© 2016 Ipsos 5
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Right Direction/Wrong Track
23%
65%
12%
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Don’t Know
All Adults
40%
47%
13% 8%
88%
4% 11%
76%
13%
Democrats Republicans Independents
ALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2016 Ipsos 6
Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)
Total Democrat Republican Independent
Strongly approve 24% 44% 6% 10%
Somewhat approve 19% 30% 6% 17%
Lean towards approve 4% 4% 1% 4%
Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 3% 4%
Somewhat disapprove 10% 7% 13% 18%
Strongly disapprove 36% 11% 70% 40%
Not sure 5% 1% 1% 7%
TOTAL APPROVE 46% 78% 13% 31%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 49% 20% 86% 62%
Barack ObamaALL ADULT AMERICANS
© 2016 Ipsos 7
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=960)
Total(n=960)
Republican(n=694)
Independent(n=194)
Donald Trump 42% 49% 27%
Ted Cruz 27% 28% 29%
John Kasich 18% 17% 24%
Wouldn’t vote 12% 5% 20%
REGISTERED VOTERS
Republican Presidential Primaries
© 2016 Ipsos 8
Total(n=1,062)
Democrat(n=796)
Independent(n=194)
Hillary Clinton 47% 53% 25%
Bernie Sanders 42% 43% 43%
Wouldn’t vote 12% 4% 32%
REGISTERED VOTERS
Democratic Presidential Primaries
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,062)
© 2016 Ipsos 9
Registered Voters
Donald Trump (Republican) 36%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 43%
Neither / Other 13%
Wouldn't Vote 4%
Don't know / Refused 5%
Registered Voters
Ted Cruz (Republican) 34%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44%
Neither / Other 13%
Wouldn't Vote 5%
Don't know / Refused 4%
Registered Voters
John Kasich (Republican) 37%
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 41%
Neither / Other 12%
Wouldn't Vote 5%
Don't know / Refused 5%
REGISTERED VOTERS
General Head-to-Heads
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?(Asked of registered voters, n=1,756)
© 2016 Ipsos 10
For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
JAN
1-7
, 20
12
JAN
22
-28
, 20
12
FEB
12
-18
, 20
12
MA
R 4
-MA
R 1
0, 2
01
2M
AR
25
-31
, 20
12
AP
R 1
5-2
1,
20
12
MA
Y 6
-12
, 20
12
MA
Y 2
7-J
UN
2, 2
01
2JU
N 1
7-2
3, 2
01
2JU
L 8
-14
, 20
12
JUL
29
-AU
G 4
, 20
12
AU
G 1
9-2
5, 2
01
2SE
PT
10
-15
, 20
12
SEP
T 3
0-O
CT
6, 2
01
2O
CT
21
-27
, 20
12
NO
V 1
1-1
7, 2
01
2D
EC 2
-8, 2
01
2D
EC 2
3-2
9, 2
01
2JA
N 8
-14
, 20
13
JAN
29
-FEB
4, 2
01
3FE
B 1
9-2
5, 2
01
3M
AR
12
-18
, 20
13
AP
R 2
-8, 2
01
3A
PR
23
-29
, 2
01
3M
AY
14
-20
, 20
13
JUN
4-1
0, 2
01
3JU
N 2
5-J
UL
1, 2
01
3JU
L 1
6-2
2, 2
01
3A
UG
6-1
2, 2
01
3A
UG
27
-SEP
T 2
, 20
13
SEP
T 1
7-2
3, 2
01
3O
CT
8-1
4,
20
13
OC
T 2
9-N
OV
4, 2
01
3N
OV
19
-25
, 20
13
DEC
10
-16
, 20
13
DEC
EMB
ER 3
1, 2
01
3JA
N 1
5-2
1, 2
01
4FE
B 5
-11
, 20
14
FEB
26
-MA
R 4
, 20
14
MA
R 1
9-2
5, 2
01
4A
PR
9-1
5, 2
01
4A
PR
30-
MA
Y 6
, 20
14
MA
Y 2
1-2
7, 2
01
4JU
N 1
1-1
7, 2
01
4JU
L 2
-8, 2
01
4JU
L 2
3-2
9, 2
01
4A
UG
13
-19
, 20
14
SEP
T 3
-9, 2
01
4SE
PT
24
-30
, 20
14
OC
T 1
5-2
1, 2
01
4N
OV
5-1
1, 2
01
4N
OV
26
-DEC
1, 2
01
4D
EC 1
7-2
3, 2
01
4JA
N 8
-14
, 20
15
JAN
29
-FEB
4, 2
01
5FE
B. 1
9-2
5, 2
01
5M
AR
CH
12
-18
, 20
15
AP
RIL
2-8
, 20
15
AP
RIL
23
-29
, 20
15
MA
Y 2
1-2
7, 2
01
5JU
N 1
1-
JUN
17
, 20
15
JULY
1-J
ULY
7, 2
01
5JU
LY 2
2-
JULY
28
, 20
15
AU
G 1
2-
AU
G 1
8, 2
01
5SE
PT
3-9
, 20
15
SEP
T 2
4-3
0, 2
01
5O
CTO
BER
15
-21
, 2
01
5N
OV
EMB
ER 4
-10
, 20
15
NO
VEM
BER
25
-…D
ECEM
BER
16
-22
, 20
15
JAU
NA
RY
6-1
2, 2
01
6JA
NU
AR
Y 2
9-F
EBR
UA
RY …
FEB
RU
AR
Y 2
0-2
4, 2
01
6M
AR
CH
11
-15
, 20
16
AP
RIL
2-A
PR
IL 6
, 20
16
AP
RIL
22
-26
, 20
16
48%
47%
ALL AMERICANS
Weekly Approval
© 2016 Ipsos 11
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.
If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?
28%
49%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JUL-
15
AU
G-1
5
SEP
-15
OC
T-1
5
NO
V-1
5
DEC
-15
JAN
-16
FEB
-16
MA
R-1
6
WEE
K O
F 4
/6/2
016
WEE
K O
F 4
/13
/201
6
WEE
K O
F 4
/20
/201
6
WEE
K O
F 4
/27
/201
6
Trump
Cruz
Kasich
REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS
Republican Primary Trend
© 2016 Ipsos 12
Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?
43%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JUL-
15
AU
G-1
5
SEP
-15
OC
T-1
5
NO
V-1
5
DEC
-15
JAN
-16
FEB
-16
MA
R-1
6
WEE
K O
F 4
/6/2
016
WEE
K O
F 4
/13
/201
6
WEE
K O
F 4
/20
/201
6
WEE
K O
F 4
/27
/201
6
Clinton
Sanders
REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
Democratic Primary Trend
© 2016 Ipsos 13
All Adults: n= 2,116
16%
22%
7%
6%
16%
11%
11%
7%
4%
45%
33%
11%
11%
Strong Democrat
Moderate Democrat
Lean Democrat
Lean Republican
Moderate Republican
Strong Republican
Independent
None of these
DK
Democrat
Republican
Independent
None/DK
ALL AMERICANS
Political Identity
© 2016 Ipsos 14
• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
© 2016 Ipsos 15
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
For this poll, The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.
SAMPLE SIZECREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
1,500 2.9
1,000 3.5
750 4.1
500 5.0
350 6.0
200 7.9
100 11.2
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes
(sample sizes) below 100.
© 2016 Ipsos 16
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