IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR...Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19...
Transcript of IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITOR...Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19...
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IPSOS MORI POLITICAL MONITORMARCH 2020
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VOTINGINTENTION
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public3
Voting Intention:March 2020
All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention
Conservative lead = +20Conservative lead = +22
52%
30%
9%
0%
4%
5%
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
Brexit Party
Green
Other
51%
31%
8%
0%
4%
6%
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
Brexit Party
Green
Other
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 713. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May
15
Jul 1
5
Sep
15
Nov
15
Jan
16
Mar
16
May
16
Jul 1
6
Sep
16
Nov
16
Jan
17
Mar
17
May
17
Jul 1
7
Sep
17
Nov
17
Jan
18
Mar
18
May
18
Jul 1
8
Sep
18
Nov
18
Jan
19
Mar
19
May
19
Jul 1
9
Sep
19
Nov
19
Jan
20
Corbyn elected(Sept 15)
May as PM(July 16)
Headline voting intention:2015 General Election
4
52%Conservative
%
March 2020
Johnson as PM(July 19)
Mar
20
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
30%Labour
General Election
How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
04Ap
r 04
Jul 0
4O
ct 0
4Ja
n 05
Apr 0
5Ju
l 05
Oct
05
Jan
06Ap
r 06
Jul 0
6O
ct 0
6Ja
n 07
Apr 0
7Ju
l 07
Oct
07
Jan
08Ap
r 08
Jul 0
8O
ct 0
8Ja
n 09
Apr 0
9Ju
l 09
Oct
09
Jan
10Ap
r 10
Jul 1
0O
ct 1
0Ja
n 11
Apr 1
1Ju
l 11
Oct
11
Jan
12Ap
r 12
Jul 1
2O
ct 1
2Ja
n 13
Apr 1
3Ju
l 13
Oct
13
Jan
14Ap
r 14
Jul 1
4O
ct 1
4Ja
n 15
Apr 1
5Ju
l 15
Oct
15
Jan
16Ap
r 16
Jul 1
6O
ct 1
6Ja
n 17
Apr 1
7Ju
l 17
Oct
17
Jan
18Ap
r 18
Jul 1
8O
ct 1
8Ja
n 19
Apr 1
9Ju
l 19
Oct
19
Jan
20
Miliband elected(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected(Sept 15)
May as PM(July 16)
Johnson as PM(July 19)
Cameron elected(Dec 05)
Brown as PM(June 07)
Headline voting intention:January ‘04 – March ’20
%
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
March 2020
52% Conservative
30% Labour
9% Lib Dem
0% The Brexit Party4% Green
0% UKIP
General Election
5
How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?
Mar
20
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SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The Government
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2020
7
68%
14%
19%
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Satisfied
+5% swing from Feb 2020
+8.5% swing from Feb 2020
Net=-49
38%
9%
52%
Net=+7Net=+14%
+5.5% swing from Feb 2020
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+ 13 - 16 March 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job.as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?
41%
10%
48%
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Boris Johnson: Satisfaction
Net = +14
March 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-1
9
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-20
52%Satisfied
9%Don’t know
38%Dissatisfied
July 2019 – March 2020
52%Satisfied
38%Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
8
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?
52%
9%
38%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters
Net = +78%
March 2020
87%Satisfied
4%Don’t know
9%Dissatisfied
July 2019 – March 2020
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 411 Conservative party supporters 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020
9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-1
9
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
87%Satisfied
9%Dissatisfied
87%
4%9%
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)
10
Number of months after becoming prime minister
Net satisfaction
Johnson
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Blair
Major
Cameron
Johnson
Brown
Thatcher
May
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)
11
Blair’s gov
Major’s gov
Cameron’s gov
Johnson’s gov
Brown’s gov
Thatcher’s gov
May’s gov Net satisfaction
Johnson
Number of months after assuming government
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-
15D
ec-1
5M
ar-1
6Ju
n-16
Sep-
16D
ec-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-17
Sep-
17D
ec-1
7M
ar-1
8Ju
n-18
Sep-
18D
ec-1
8M
ar-1
9Ju
n-19
Sep-
19D
ec-1
9M
ar-2
0
Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction
Net = -49%
March 2020
19%Satisfied
14%Don’t know
68%Dissatisfied
September 2015 – March 2020
19%Satisfied
68%Dissatisfied
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?
19%
14%
68%
Mar
20Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Corbyn
Corbyn
Blair
Smith
Kinnock
Miliband
Foot
Cameron
Duncan-smith
Hague
Howard
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020)
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
Number of months after becoming opposition leader
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
13
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-
15D
ec-1
5M
ar-1
6Ju
n-16
Sep-
16D
ec-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-17
Sep-
17D
ec-1
7M
ar-1
8Ju
n-18
Sep-
18D
ec-1
8M
ar-1
9Ju
n-19
Sep-
19D
ec-1
9M
ar-2
0
Jeremy Corbyn: Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
Net = -10%
March 2020
41%Satisfied
9%Don’t know
51%Dissatisfied
September 2015 – March 2020
41%Satisfied
51%Dissatisfied
Base: 284 Labour Party supporters aged 18+, 13-16 March 2020
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour party?
Mar
-20
41%
10%
51%
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ECONOMICOPTIMISM
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Economic Optimism Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
07Ju
l-07
Dec
-07
Apr-0
8Au
g-08
Dec
-08
Apr-0
9Au
g-09
Dec
-09
Apr-1
0Se
p-10
Jan-
11M
ay-1
1Se
p-11
Jan-
12M
ay-1
2Se
p-12
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Oct
-15
Feb-
16Ju
n-16
Oct
-16
Feb-
17Ju
l-17
Jan-
18Ju
n-18
Dec
-18
Jun-
19D
ec-1
9M
ar-2
0EOI = -54
March 2020 January 2007– March 2020
15%Improve
13%Stay the same
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
69%Get worse
69%
13%
15%
3%69%Get worse
13%Stay the same
15%Improve
3%Don’t know
16
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Economic Optimism Index(1998-2020)
17
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan
1998
Oct
199
8
Jul 1
999
Apr 2
000
Jan
2001
Oct
200
1
Jul 2
002
Apr 2
003
Jan
2004
Oct
200
4
Jul 2
005
Apr 2
006
Jan
2007
Oct
200
7
Jul 2
008
Apr 2
009
Jan
2010
Oct
201
0
Jul 2
011
Apr 2
012
Jan
2013
Oct
201
3
Jul 2
014
Apr 2
015
Jan
2016
Oct
201
6
Jul 2
017
Apr 2
018
Jan
2019
Oct
201
9
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Net optimism
-54%
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?
Mar
202
0
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LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST
THE CORONAVIRUS
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak
39%
41%
47%
49%
52%
23%
13%
38%
35%
14%
Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far? If you do not know who the person is, please say so. Fieldwork: 13-16 March
19
Boris Johnson
The Government
Very/fairly well Net well
+38
Very/fairly badly
Chris WhittyThe Chief MedicalOfficer for England
Rishi SunakChancellor of
the Exchequer
Matt HancockSecretary of State
for Health and Social Care
+14
+9
+28
+16
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Government measures in response to the Coronavirus
20
When thinking about the different measures the Government has taken so far in order to tackle the coronavirus outbreak, which of the following statements comes closest to your view?Fieldwork: 13-16 March
3%
50%
42%
4%The measures the
Government has taken go too far and not all are necessary
The measures the Government has taken are about right
The measures the Government has taken do not go far enough
and more should be done
Don’t know
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Likelihood of self-isolating for a week
21
34%
39%
1%
2%
13%
19%
25%
23%
14%
2%
Less than half
More than half
Don’t know
None of them
Hardly any of them
Less than half of them
Around half of them
More than half of them
Nearly all of them
All of them
As you may know, the government has advised people with mild symptoms, such as having a high temperature or continuous cough, to self-isolate and stay at home for 7 days, regardless of whether they have been tested for the coronavirus. How many people, if any, with mild symptoms do you think will follow this advice and self-isolate themselves for seven days?Fieldwork: 13-16 March
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Handling of the Coronavirus outbreak
54%
77%
65%
40%
17%
27%As you may know, this week’s /last week’s Budget included measures to help deal with the coronavirus outbreak. From what you know or have heard, how helpful, if at all, do you think these measures will be overall in tackling the coronavirus outbreak?Fieldwork: 13-16 March
22
Very/fairly helpful Net helpful
+38
Among all
Among Conservative party supporters
Among Labour party supporters
Not very/at all helpful
+60
+14
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (411), Labour party supporters (284), 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Support for Budget measures in response to the Coronavirus
77%
81%
82%
84%
87%
92%
10%
6%
5%
6%
6%
3
And to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose each of the following policies announced in the Budget to respond to the coronavirus outbreak?Fieldwork: 13-16 March
23
Support Net support
+89
OpposeProviding a £5billion emergency
response fund for the NHS and other public services
+81
+78
+75
+67
Providing a £500 million hardship fund for councils in
England to help vulnerable people in their areas
Meeting the costs of up to two weeks’ worth of sick pay payments
for firms with fewer than 250 staff
Suspending business rates for a year for companies such as shops,
cinemas, restaurants and hotels with rateable value of less than £51,000
Providing “business interruption” loans of up to £1.2million for small
businesses
Providing statutory sick pay for all those advised to self-
isolate, even if they have not presented with symptoms
+77
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Response to the Coronavirus:Bank of England Interest Rate CutAs you may know, the Bank of England recently announced it was cutting base interest rates from 0.75 to 0.25 per cent to help deal with the potential economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. To what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose this interest rate cut? Fieldwork: 13-16 March
24
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Support
70% 12%
Oppose
Net support: +58
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Cancellation of events due to coronavirus
71%
73%
75%
79%
19%
17%
14%
12%And would you support or oppose cancelling each of the following events in light of the coronavirus outbreak? Fieldwork: 13-16 March
25
The UEFA European Football
Championship
The remainder of the season for the main
football leagues around Britain
Support Net support
+67
+61
+56
Oppose
+52
The FA Cup
The Wimbledon Tennis Championships
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Response to the Coronavirus:Local and Mayoral Elections postponement
26
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Support
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
72% 20%
Oppose
Net support: +52
As you may know England was scheduled to hold local and mayoral elections on the 7th of May this year, but the government has announced these will now be postponed for a year due to the coronavirus. Do you support or oppose postponing these elections? Fieldwork: 13-16 March
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THE BUDGET
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Rishi Sunak: Satisfaction
28
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
37%
32%
30%
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Among all Among Conservative party supporters
45%
17%
37%
63%7%
30%
Net satisfaction: +28 Net satisfaction: +56Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2020
29
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar
-76
Mar
-77
Apr-
78Ju
l-80
Mar
-82
Jun-
83M
ar-8
5M
ar-8
6M
ar-8
7M
ar-8
8M
ar-8
9M
ar-9
0M
ar-9
1M
ar-9
2M
ar-9
3D
ec-9
3D
ec-9
4N
ov-9
5D
ec-9
5N
ov-9
6D
ec-9
6Ju
l-97
Feb-
98M
ar-9
8M
ar-9
9Fe
b-00
Mar
-00
Jul-0
0Se
p-00
Nov
-00
Mar
-01
Apr-
02Ap
r-03
Mar
-04
Nov
-05
Feb-
06D
ec-0
6Ap
r-07
Mar
-08
Mar
-10
Jun-
10M
ar-1
1D
ec-1
1Ap
r-12
Mar
-13
Apr-
14M
ar-1
5Ju
l-15
Nov
-15
Feb-
16M
ar-1
6N
ov-1
6M
ar-1
7N
ov-1
7N
ov-1
8O
ct-1
9M
ar-2
0
HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND
% S
ATIS
FIED
JAVID
Rishi Sunak
© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
Opinion on the Budget proposals: 2014-2020
30
As you may know, the Government announced its 2020 budget this week/ last week. From what you know or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing….?
You personally For the country
54%
41%
38%
30%
46%
48%
22%
38%
42%
53%
44%
33%
March 2020
November 2017
March 2017
March 2016
July 2015
April 2014
45%
35%
33%
35%
45%
43%
24%
36%
39%
40%
38%
35%
March 2020
November 2017
March 2017
March 2016
July 2015
April 2014
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020
Gideon SkinnerResearch [email protected]
Glenn GottfriedResearch [email protected]
Cameron GarrettSenior Research [email protected]
Ipsos MORIMarch 2020 Political Monitor
For more information
Dylan SpielmanResearch [email protected]