Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2015

2015POLITICAL MONITOR21.12.2015

2015VOTINGINTENTIONS

Voting IntentionHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

37%

33%

9%

5%10%

6%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +7

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

38%

31%

9%

6%9%

7%

Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12 th – 14th December all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 752. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

3

2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

5

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM GOVERNMENT

+0.5%swing from November

-7%swing from November

-1.5%swing from November



-14 Net -17 Net -15 Net -7 Net -17 NetSATISFIED 41% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 24% SATISFIED 38%

DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 55%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

0

-50

+50

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

6

Satisfaction with Party leaders Nov‘8 – Nov‘15

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


Nov-0

8

Feb-0

9

May-0

9

Aug-0

9

Nov-0

9

Feb-1

0

May-1

0

Aug-1

0

Nov-1

0

Feb-1

1

May-1

1

Aug-1

1

Nov-1

1

Feb-1

2

May-1

2

Aug-1

2

Nov-1

2

Feb-1

3

May-1

3

Aug-1

3

Nov-1

3

Feb-1

4

May-1

4

Aug-1

4

Nov-1

4

Feb-1

5

May-1

5

Aug-1

5

Nov-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

41%33%

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE

33%

24%

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

7

Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOBAS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


41%

55%

4%

December 2015 August 2006 –December 2015

Jun-

06O

ct-0

6M

ay-0

7S

ep-0

7Fe

b-08

Jun-

08O

ct-0

8Fe

b-09

Jun-

09O

ct-0

9Fe

b-10

Jun-

10N

ov-1

0M

ar-1

1Ju

l-11

Nov

-11

Mar

-12

Jul-1

2N

ov-1

2M

ar-1

3Ju

l-13

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4N

ov-1

4M

ar-1

5Ju

l-15

Dec

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


SATISFIED 41%

DISSATISFIED 55%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = -14

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

9

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 327 Conservative supporters 18+, 12th – 14th December

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


81%

18%1%

December 2015 July 2006 – December 2015

Jun

06N

ov 0

6Ju

n 07

Oct

07

Mar

08

Jul 0

8N

ov-0

8M

ar-0

9Ju

l-09

Nov

-09

Mar

-10

Jul-1

0Fe

b-11

Jun-

11O

ct-1

1Fe

b-12

Jun-

12O

ct-1

2Fe

b-13

Jun-

13O

ct-1

3Fe

b-14

14-J

unO

ct-1

4Fe

b-15

Jun-

15N

ov-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100


SATISFIED 81%

DISSATISFIED 18%

DON’T KNOW 1%

Net = +63

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

10

37%

40%

23%33%

50%

17%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


November 2015

SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 50%

DON’T KNOW 17%

Net = -17


SATISFIED 37%

DISSATISFIED 40%

DON’T KNOW 23%

Net = -3

December 2015

11

65%18%

18%

56%28%

16%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction among Labour supporters)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMEY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


December 2015

SATISFIED 56%

DISSATISFIED 28%

DON’T KNOW 16%

Net = +28

Base: 310 Labour supporters 14th – 17th November and 328 Labour supporters12th –14th December 2015

SATISFIED 65%

DISSATISFIED 18%

DON’T KNOW 18%

Net = +47

November 2015

12

18%

32%

50%

24%

31%

45%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


November 2015 December 2015

SATISFIED 18%

DISSATISFIED 32%

DON’T KNOW 50%

Net = -15

SATISFIED 24%

DISSATISFIED 31%

DON’T KNOW 45%

Net = -7

13

57%30%

13%

48%

30%

22%

Tim Farron (satisfaction among Liberal Democrat supporters)

Base:80 Lib Dem supporters 18+ 14th – 17th November and 79 Lib Dem supporters 18+, 12-14 December 2015N.B. small base size, indicative only.

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOBAS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


November 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only) December 2015 (Lib Dem supporters only)

SATISFIED 57%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = +27

SATISFIED 48%

DISSATISFIED 30%

DON’T KNOW 22%

Net = +18

14

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


33%

48%

19%

December 2015 March 2013 – December 2015

SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 48%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = -15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

15

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Sep

-13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 61 UKIP supporters 18+, 12th – 14th DecemberN.B. small base size, indicative only.

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


93%

3%3%

December 2015 March 2013 – December 2015

SATISFIED 93%

DISSATISFIED 3%

DON’T KNOW 3%

Net = +90Dissatisfied

Satisfied

2015ECONOMICOPTIMISM

Economic Optimism Index


17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILLIMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


December 2015

Feb-

04A

ug-0

4Fe

b-05

Aug

-05

Mar

-06

Oct

-06

Jun-

07Ja

n-08

Jul-0

8Ja

n-09

Jul-0

9Ja

n-10

Jul-1

0Fe

b-11

Aug

-11

Feb-

12A

ug-1

2Fe

b-13

Aug

-13

Feb-

14A

ug-1

4Fe

b-15

Sep

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

IMPROVE 34%STAY THE SAME 28%

GET WORSE 35%

DON’T KNOW 3%

EOI = -1

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index


18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILLIMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


Nov

199

7

Jun

1998

Jan

1999

Aug

199

9

Mar

200

0

Oct

200

0

May

200

1

Dec

200

1

Jul 2

002

Feb

2003

Sep

200

3

Apr

200

4

Nov

200

4

Jun

2005

Jan

2006

Aug

200

6

Mar

200

7

Oct

200

7

May

200

8

Dec

200

8

Jul 2

009

Feb

2010

Sep

201

0

Apr

201

1

Nov

201

1

Jun

2012

Jan

2013

Aug

201

3

Mar

201

4

Oct

201

4

May

201

5

Dec

201

5

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

11

-19-21-27-37-46

-31-30-23-15-6-8-1-43

-12

5

-7412

-10-5-13-11-14-16-17-13

-6-6-9-2

-29-22

-4-15

-31

-56

-43

-29-20-21-21

-5

-22-17-27-23-23

-32-40-46-50-39

-18-24-20-22-26-23-25-27

-20-21-18-22-18-25-22-16-27-22-26-23-22-19

-11-15-11-20-14-18-25-35-32-27-23

-28-26-29-32-25-33-31

-23-33-27-29-31

-20-20-21-25-33-37

-46-51-47

-60-57-60-57-64-59-58

-35

-51-48-40-40-29

-2-2

11

-6

16162123

-4

20

671510

-53

-20-21-20-12

-29-37-28

-11-13-23-26-33-32-41-43-48

-35

-22-14-18-23-32-32-27

-9-14-6

-27-22-22-30-19

-105

202315151819

2523253429253224

1219

5121121261614

1-6-9-1-1

2015EUROPE

European referendum

Base: 511 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

20IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?


October 2015

STAY IN 52%

GET OUT 39%

DON’T KNOW 9%

December 2015

STAY IN 53%

GET OUT 36%

DON’T KNOW 11%

21

Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?Trend since 1977IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?

Dec-

77De

c-78

Dec-

79De

c-80

Dec-

81De

c-82

Dec-

83De

c-84

Dec-

85De

c-86

Dec-

87De

c-88

Dec-

89De

c-90

Dec-

91De

c-92

Dec-

93De

c-94

Dec-

95De

c-96

Dec-

97De

c-98

Dec-

99De

c-00

Dec-

01De

c-02

Dec-

03De

c-04

Dec-

05De

c-06

Dec-

07De

c-08

Dec-

09De

c-10

Dec-

11De

c-12

Dec-

13De

c-14

Dec-

15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

26%

60% 63%52% 49%

53% 51%

41%

61%

53%

65%

29% 27%36% 35% 32%

39%

49%

27%

36%

Base: 511 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

STAY IN GET OUT

22

EU Referendum question:Should the UK remain a member of the EU?

Base: 529 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE


October 2015

36%

52%

12%

32%

58%

10%

REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW

EUROPEAN UNION?

December 2015

23

4%

30%

37%

26%

3%5%

32%

36%

24%

3%6%

32%

37%

20%

4%

Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU deal for BritainPLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?

Source: Ipsos MORI

June 2015


October 2015 December 2015

VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW

57%

34%

63%

37%

60%

38%

24

1%17%

64%

13%

5%

Will Cameron achieve his goals?DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL ACHIEVE ALL, MOST, A FEW, OR NONE OF HIS GOALS IN THE NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

ALL MOST A FEW NONE DON’T KNOW

December 2015

25

What will Cameron do after the negotiations?AND AFTER THE NEGOTIATIONS, DO YOU THINK DAVID CAMERON WILL CAMPAIGN FOR BRITAIN TO STAY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION IN THE REFERENDUM OR FOR BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION?

14%

1%

17%

68%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December

Will campaign for Britain to stay in

Will campaign for Britain to leave

Will be neutral

Don't know

26

32%

20%5%

14%

27%

1%

Voting rightsDO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE [STATEMENT] IN THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?

Source: Ipsos MORI

Giving 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote

Base: Split-sample: 504/536 British adults 18+, 12 th – 14th December

Reducing the voting age from 18 to 16

STRONGLY SUPPORT TEND TO SUPPORT

NEITHER SUPPORT NOR OPPOSE TEND TO OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE DON’T KNOW

20%

17%

6%18%

38%

1%

56%

37%42%

41%52%

2015SYRIA / TERRORISM

28

DAVID CAMERON JEREMY CORBYN HILARY BENN

-15 Net -26 Net -1 NetSATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 35%DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 36%DON’T KNOW 9% DON’T KNOW 15% DON’T KNOW 29%

Base: 1,040 British adults 18+, 12th – 14th December Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY… IS HANDLING THE CRISIS IN SYRIA?

Satisfaction with the way…is handling the Syrian crisis

Are the airstrikes making Britain a safer place?AS YOU MAY KNOW, BRITAIN HAS RECENTLY LAUNCHED AIRSTRIKES AGAINST THE SO-CALLED ISLAMIC STATE IN SYRIA. DO YOU THINK THESE AIRSTRIKES WILL MAKE BRITAIN SAFER OR LESS SAFE FROM TERRORISM, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?


9%

44%44%

3%SAFER

LESS SAFE

MAKES NO DIFFERENCE

DON’T KNOW


29

2015AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

31

20%

36%18%

9%

6%11% 5%7%

9%

13%

61%

6%

Support for potential US Presidential candidatesAS YOU MAY KNOW, THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IS BEING HELD NEXT YEAR. DONALD TRUMP IS CAMPAIGNING TO BE THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE, AND HILLARY CLINTON IS CAMPAIGNING TO BE THE DEMOCRAT CANDIDATE. DO YOU HAVE A FAVOURABLE OR UNFAVOURABLE OPINION OF..

Source: Ipsos MORI

Hillary Clinton


Donald Trump

VERY FAVOURABLEFAIRLY FAVOURABLE

NEITHER FAVOURABLE NOR UNFAVOURABLE

FAIRLY UNFAVOURABLE

VERY UNFAVOURABLE DON’T KNOW

74%

12%

42%

15% 56%

2015POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: December 2015

News & Politics

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