Ips connect 2015 sohail hasnie
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Sohail Hasnie Principal Energy Specialist, Asian Development Bank November 2015
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Transcript of Ips connect 2015 sohail hasnie
Sohail Hasnie Principal Energy Specialist, Asian Development Bank November 2015
#1 Solar Power 570 kW (ADB) - 100 MW Samarkand, Uzbekistan
#2 Wangan Aji 50 kW – Indonesia
#3 Rehabilitation of 1200 MW Toktogul Hydropower Plant
1,000,000
CFLs
13 Watt each
13,000,000 watts
13 MW
60,000,000 watts
60 MW
Savings of about
50 MW of equivalent
generation
1,000,000
incandescent
60 Watt each
#4: 1 million CFL is a 50 MW power
station
1 million CFLs cost
$1.5 million
A 50 MW Power Station costs
$50 million
Replacement of
1,000,000 incandescent bulbs
with 1,000,000 CFLs
is same as building a new
50 MW virtual power station
1 million CFLs cost
$1.0 million a 50 MW power station costs**
$50 million
** Plus cost of maintenance, land acquisition, fuel, and emissions
100,000 electric tricycles
Cost $504 million
Savings: $185 million per year
(500,000 liters/ day $500,000 / day)
Avoided CO2 emissions
260,000 tons per year
Electricity Demand
Demand: 6-60 MW peak
Energy: 600,000 MWh
#5
12 #6
3 c/kWh
10 c/kWh
30+ c/kWh
#5
300 MW, 220 kV, 500 km
Cost around $100m Estimated Savings: vs self diesel
generation per year - 2014
1500 GWh
$323 million
#7 Uzbekistan–Afghanistan (completed 2009)
600 MW, 220kV, 175 km (in AFG)
Cost around: $57.43 million
($20.93 million for Tajikistan and
$36.5 million for Afghanistan)
•Estimated Savings against vs self diesel generation per year - 2014
•650 GWh
•$170 million
Tajikistan to Afghanistan (Oct 2011)
#8
Disruption
is coming to the power sector
Source: http://www.kotzendes-einhorn.de/blog/2011-06/the-hard-disk-youve-been-waiting-for-na-endlich/
1986 10,000 KB
$340 /MB
8,000 MB ….$340 per MB
$2.7 million
3.87 cents per kWh or $38.7 per MWh
100 MW July 2015
Solar PPA prices trending down
Nokia Senator 1982
Battery 9.8 kg Today 112 gm
98% weight reduction!!
Batteries
Source:
Prices are falling …
Battery Life
By 2015,
1,000,000 Electric Vehicle on road By 2022 battery price reduced
from $500/kWh
to $125/ kWh
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/02/f8/eveverywhere_road_to_success.pdf
$500 per kWh in 2015
$175 per kWh by 2020!
$50 per kWh by 2025??
Source:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-24/cheap-batteries-under-the-hood-add-power-to-cut-fuel-consumption
March 2015
$833 per kWh in 2010 Batteries
• Question?
• How will your world will look like with
$50 / kWh
1000 Wh / kg
Battery: 3 kWh
Motor: 3 kW
Battery: 16 kWh
Motor: 47 kW
Battery: 24 kWh
Motor: 80 kW
Battery: 85 kWh
Motor: 310 kW
Mitsubishi
iMiEV
Nissan
LEAF
Tesla
Model S
E-Trike
Battery: 16 kWh
Battery: 24 kWh
Battery: 85 kWh
Mitsubishi
iMiEV
Nissan
LEAF
Tesla
Model S Battery Price
$500 / kWh
to
$50 /kWh
$38,000
$11,000
$7,000
Battery: 3 kWh
Motor: 3 kW
E-Trike
$1,350
New Technology Training
Tokyo, July 2015 • Solar power generation • Energy efficiency • Electric vehicles • Clean coal technology
SH: CONTEXT / LANDSCAPE Project
No. AFG AZE KAZ KGZ MON PAK TAJ TKM UZB
A. Supply Side
1 Solar powered micro-grid for remote areas P P P
2 Adoption of clean coal technologies in power
generation P P P
3 Improve efficiency of solar industry / establish new
industry P P
4 Solar off-grid to reduce demand from diesel P P P P P
5 Recycling of municipal waste for power generation P P P P P
B. Electric Vehicle and Storage
6 Battery based grid storage for reliability
improvement of renewable energy P P P P
7 Electric vehicles (bus, cars, motorcycles and
scooters) pilot for government fleet and public
transport P P P P P P P
C. Demand Side and Distribution Efficiency
8 Demand responses through smart meters and
diversified tariffs P
9 LEDs for public lighting and offices P P P P
10 Efficiency in distribution efficiency and loss
reduction P P P P P
11 Improve load dispatch systems and distribution
control with SCADA P P P P P
12 Reduce heat losses in office buildings by
retrofitting P P
Proposed Investment Projects by Each Country
(Based on brainstorming session on 29 July in Tokyo and updated on 9 September in KL)
P Proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015 and confirmed in KL on 9 September 2015 (AZE and TKM did not participate)
P Proposed on 9 September 2015 in KL; For AZE and TKM, proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015
SH: CONTEXT / LANDSCAPE Project
No. AFG AZE KAZ KGZ MON PAK TAJ TKM UZB
B. Electric Vehicle and Storage
7
Electric vehicles (bus, cars, motorcycles and
scooters) pilot for government fleet and public
transport P P P P P P P
Electric bus P P P P P
Electric cars P P P P P
Electric motorcycles P
Electric scooters P
Proposed Investment Projects by Each Country
(Based on brainstorming session on 29 July in Tokyo and updated on 9 September in KL)
P Proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015 and confirmed in KL on 9 September 2015 (AZE and TKM did not participate in KL)
P Additional information provided on 9 September 2015 in KL; For AZE and TKM, proposed in Tokyo on 29 July 2015
14 Oct 2010
Solution Space: Electric Vehicles
Range: 35-50 km Speed: 45 km/h NO Air-conditioners: Min. Safety Standards
Price: $4,000 to $6,000 as
$4 per day
5-years Standard Warranty
24 kWh battery
160 km range
3 kWh battery
40 km range
Range: 160 km Speed: 200 km/h Air-conditioners Best Possible Safety Standards
Price: $35,000 3-years or 100,000 km Standard Warranty
Top of the Pyramid
Bottom of the Pyramid
Range results (“Continuous" running)
A1: 72.53 km
A2: 90.33 km
B4: 62.21 km
B7: 41.89 km
22 May 2011
25 Mar 2011
Which one? side by side comparison (5-years of operation)
Cost: $5,000 Cost: $2,000
Electricity: $3,000 Gasoline: $7,000
Drivers save about $2,000over 5 years!!* * In addition e-trike may increase income by $9,000 over the 5-years
Other maintenance: $2,000 Other maintenance: $1,000
Total cost: $11,000 Total cost: $9,000
• Solar Power
• Efficient Appliances including LEDs
• Lithium-ion Battery
12 Volt DC home-system
Off-grid light in the courtyard
PROTOTYPE
PV Solar
Panels LED Bulb
DC
Refrigerator DC LED
TV
DC Fan
Lithium Ion
Battery
KIT Components
250 watt solar panel $150
2 kWh Lithium-ion battery $700
10 LED light bulbs with cables $100
1 DC LED 19” TV $200
1 DC refrigerator $200
2 DC fans $50
Contingency $100
Total: $1,500
•47
Proof of Concept of
an off-grid kit
April 2016 – Nov 2016 Dec 2016
Estimated
50,000
off-grid kits in
Afghanistan
and/or Pakistan
Multi-country demonstration with
estimated
1,500-2,000 off-grid kits
Sept 2015 – March 2016
Proof of Concep
t Scale-up Pilot
Megatrends!!
Electricity: new small business.
Leapfrogging…
