I.Policy Cost Analysis...II.Points of the FY2018 analysis 1.Policy cost total In FY2018, 24 FILP...

I. Policy Cost Analysis

The policy cost analysis was recommended in a report on fundamental FILP reform by the Fund

Management Council in November 1997 to secure the disclosure on the future public financial

burdens and fiscal soundness and was test implemented in FY1999 before full implementation from

FY2001.

While loans for FILP projects are basically repaid by beneficiaries of these projects, subsidies and

investments are disbursed from the government (e.g. General Account, etc.) to the implementers of

these projects to ease the burden on beneficiaries. The policy cost analysis represents the estimation

of future subsidies for these projects and opportunity costs (interest payment alleviation effect)

through past investments for the purpose of determining the adequateness of these projects. The

estimation results of the policy cost analysis are published to enhance the disclosure on the future

public financial burdens and the transparency of FILP.

The policy cost analysis projects future cash flow for FILP-using projects for each FILP agency

on certain preconditions to estimate the following three values:

(1) Value of subsidies expected to be provided by the government in the future

(2) Value of expected future payments to the government and corporation tax payments

(3) Value of opportunity costs of past investments and non-interest-bearing loans

The estimates are converted into president discounted values to compute policy cost as (1)-(2)+(3).

○政策コストのイメージ

＜①－② の現在価値を求める＞

① 補助金等（将来、国から支出されると見込まれる金額）

③ 出資金等による機会費用(＝利払軽減効果)(国から支出されない概念上の費用)

② 国庫納付・法人税等（将来、国に納付されると見込まれる金額）

政策コスト＝ ①補助金等－②国庫納付等＋③機会費用

出資金・無利子貸付

出資金・無利子貸付の機会費用（実質的な利子補給金）

補助金

国庫納付・法人税

Image of “Policy Cost”

Opportunity costs of capital investments and interest-free loans (= substantial subsidies for interest payment)

[1] Subsidies, etc. (Funds expected to be disbursed by the government in the future)

Subsidies

[2] Payment to the government /corporate tax, etc. (Funds expected to be paid to the government in the future)

Payment to the government/corporate tax

( [1] - [2] & Calculating the present values )

[3] Opportunity costs attributable to investments, etc. (= interest payment alleviation effect) (conceptual cost not disbursed by the government)

Capital investment and interest-free loans

Policy cost = [1] Subsidies – [2] Payments to the government /corporate tax + [3] Opportunity cost

1

II. Points of the FY2018 analysis

1. Policy cost total

In FY2018, 24 FILP agencies conducted policy cost analyses, computing their total policy cost

at negative 804.0 billion yen, up 624.0 billion yen from negative 1,428.0 billion yen for FY2017

analyses (25 agencies).

The total policy cost is broken down as follows into category (1) to category (3) mentioned

above on page 1.

(Unit: billion yen)

Policy cost ((1)+(2)+(3))

(1) Subsidies,etc. from thegovernment

(2) Paymentsto the

government

(3) Opportunity cost for the government

Capital investments, etc. provided

before the beginning of the analysis

period

Surplus, etc. expected to be generated during the analysis period

FY2018 - 804.0 1,686.6 - 6,653.0 4,162.4 7,222.7 - 3,060.3FY2017 - 1,428.0 1,784.8 - 6,506.8 3,294.0 5,008.3 - 1,714.3It must be noted that the policy cost value widely fluctuates depending on interest rates and

other assumptions for the estimation. Among changes from the FY2017 analysis, (3) opportunity

cost for the government posts a major increase due to an assumed interest rate change.

(See p. 6 for effective changes excluding effects of an assumed interest rate)

<<Assumed interest rate>>

In the policy cost analysis, the future interest rate and discount factor are computed based on

spot market yields on government bonds (Note) on the day when the annual budget proposal is

decided (December 22, 2017, for the FY2018 analysis) and set as common assumptions.

(Note) If spot yields are negative, the future interest rate is regarded as 0% and the discount factor as 1.

0.1%

0.6%0.7%

0.8%

0.1%

0.6%

0.9%

1.1%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40（Remaining period to maturity）

FY2018 analysis

Spot rate curve (yield curve) The spot rate used for the FY2018

analysis is higher than for the FY2017

analysis. Due to the change, opportunity

cost of investments and policy cost are

higher.

2

2. Breakdown of policy cost by the time of provision of funds

The breakdown of policy cost by the time of provision of funds classifies policy cost into two

portions – (1) opportunity cost of investments provided before the beginning of the analysis period

and (2) policy cost expected to be newly accrued during the analysis period.

In the FY2018 analysis, “(1) Opportunity cost of investments provided before the beginning of

the analysis period” increased. This is attributable to an increase in opportunity cost of capital

investments, etc. due to an increase in the assumed interest rate.

【Breakdown of policy cost by the time of provision of funds】

(Unit: billion yen)

Category FY2018 (A) FY2017 (B) Fluctuation

(A-B)

Policy cost (total) - 804.0 - 1,428.0 + 624.0

(1) Opportunity cost of capital investments, etc.

provided before the beginning of the analysis period7,222.7 5,008.3 + 2,214.4

(2) Policy cost expected to be newly accrued

during the analysis period- 8,026.7 - 6,436.3 - 1,590.3

(a) Subsidies, etc. from the government 1,686.6 1,784.8 - 98.2

(b) Payments to the government - 6,653.0 - 6,506.8 - 146.1

(c) Policy cost accompanying a change in

surplus funds- 3,190.3 - 1,822.9 - 1,367.3

(d) Opportunity cost of capital

investments, etc.129.9 108.6 + 21.3

<Reference> Relationship between assumed interest rate change and policy cost

Component Fall in assumed interest rate (↘) Rise in assumed interest rate (↗)

(1) Subsidies, etc.

<cost rise (+)>

・Rise in discounted present value of

subsidies, etc. ⇒ Rise in policy cost (+)

・Fall in discounted present value of subsidies,

etc. ⇒ Fall in policy cost (-)

・Fall in coupon fee ⇒ Fall in subsidies, etc.

⇒ Fall in policy cost (-)

・Rise in coupon fee ⇒ Rise in subsidies, etc.

⇒ Rise in policy cost (+)

(2) Payments to the

government, etc.

<cost fall: (-) >

・Rise in discounted present value of payments to the

government, etc. ⇒ Fall in policy cost (-)

・Fall in discounted present of payments to the

government, etc. ⇒ Rise in policy cost (+)

・Fall in coupon fee ⇒ Rise in payments to

the government, etc. ⇒ Fall in policy cost (‐)

・Rise in coupon fee ⇒ Fall in payments to the

government, etc. ⇒ Rise in policy cost (+)

(3) Opportunity cost

<cost rise: (+)>

・ Fall in opportunity cost (equivalent to

interest) ⇒ Fall in policy cost (-)

・ Rise in opportunity cost (equivalent to

interest) ⇒ Rise in policy cost (+)

*Factors in brackets meet some FILP agencies.

3

3. Policy cost of the major FILP agencies

(Unit: billion yen)

Institutions Policy Cost (FY2018)

(1) Opportunity costof capitalinvestments, etc.provided before thebeginning of theanalysis period

(2) Policy costexpected to be newlyincurred during theanalysis period

Fin

anci

ng I

nstit

utio

ns

Japan Finance Corporation 822.5 777.0 45.4

Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations 27.3 264.7 -237.4

Account for SME Loan Programs and Securitization Support Programs [Guarantee-type Operations]

6.6 187.7 -181.1

Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations 99.2 223.5 -124.3

Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses 688.3 101.1 587.3

Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Businesses Promotion, etc. 1.0 0.0 0.9

Japan Bank for International Cooperation 56.8 289.5 -232.7

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

137.4 3,661.6 -3,524.2

Japan Student Services Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) 130.1 0.0 130.1

Welfare And Medical Service Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) -33.5 6.8 -40.3

Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities -557.3 - -557.3

Development Bank of Japan Inc. -378.5 252.4 -630.9

7 other agencies 31.7 48.8 -17.1

Pro

ject

Ins

titut

ions

National Hospital Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) 109.3 42.6 66.7

National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (National Research and Development Agency)

14.7 5.0 9.7

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) (Construction Account)

972.7 - 972.7

Urban Renaissance Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) -3,850.2 483.6 -4,333.9

Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

1,084.1 1,051.7 32.5

Japan Water Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) 70.8 1.8 69.0

Forest Research and Management Organization (National Research and Development Agency)

712.5 549.9 162.6

New Kansai International Airport Co., Ltd. -84.7 32.0 -116.7

4

Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd. -53.1 3.7 -56.8

2 other agencies 11.0 16.4 -5.4

Total -804.0 7,222.7 -8,026.7

(Note 1) It should be noted that the policy cost was estimated based on assumptions including analysis periods and

business projections differing from agency to agency and changes considerably depending on assumptions.

(Note 2) The policy cost does not indicate any fiscal burden accompanied by future fund transfers accruing from the

implementation of projects.

(Note 3) It is not appropriate to evaluate the policy cost simply based on the overall amount. Comprehensive evaluation

should be made with consideration given to the social and economic benefit brought about by each policy as well

as the policy cost.

(See p.18-20 for details by agency.)

5

4. Past year comparison analysis (real fluctuation analysis)

In order to make a past year comparison (to determine real fluctuations), the effects of (1)

fluctuations in the agencies subject to analysis, (2) any change in the assumed interest rate, and (3)

any change in the analysis commencement period must be eliminated.

The FY2018 policy cost (-804.0 billion yen) is 624.0 billion yen higher than the FY2017 policy

cost (-1,428.0 billion yen). If the effects of (1) fluctuations in the agencies subject to analysis, (2)

any change in the assumed interest rate, and (3) any change in the analysis commencement period

are eliminated, however, the real fluctuation turns out to be an increase of 36.9 billion yen.

(1) Effect of fluctuations in the agencies subject to analysis

FY2018 policy cost of one account newly covered in the FY2018 analysis

Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

(Account for oil, natural gas, etc.): 0.0 billion yen --- ①

FY2017 policy cost of one agency and one account precluded from the FY2018 analysis

National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology (National Research and Development

Agency): 5.0 billion yen

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated

Administrative Agency) (Grant Account): - billion yen

--- ②

(2) Effect of a change in the assumed interest rate (The assumed interest rate for the FY2017

analysis was used to re-estimate the FY2018 analysis results)

- 656.6 billion yen --- ③

(3) Effect of the analysis commencement period’s change from FY2017 to FY2018 (Of the

FY2017 policy cost, the cost during FY2017 was deducted): 64.5 billion yen --- ④

FY2017 - 1,428.0 bil. yen – 5.0 bil. yen (②) − 64.5 bil. yen (④) = - 1,497.5 bil. yen

FY2018 - 804.0 bil. yen – 0.0 bil. yen (①) + - 656.6 bil. yen (③) = - 1,460.6 billion yen

As a result, the real fluctuation comes to

+ 36.9 billion yen (FY2018 – 1,460.6 bil. yen − FY2017 – 1,497.5 bil. yen).

6

【Past year comparison analysis (real fluctuation analysis by agency)】

(Unit: billion yen)

Institutions Real fluctuation Main factor

Fin

anci

ng I

nstit

utio

ns

Japan Finance Corporation + 108.3

Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations

- 12.3 Decrease in loss due to new financing


+ 6.6Increase in administrative cost, etc. due to new financing

Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations

+ 38.7Decrease in surplus, etc. due to a gap between new financing and fundraising interest rates

Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses

+ 75.0Increase in loss due to payment of compensation in the damage collateral business

Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Businesses Promotion, etc.

+ 0.3Increase in administrative cost, etc. due to new financing

Japan Bank for International Cooperation - 50.6 Increase in surplus, etc. due to new financing

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

- 15.5 Increase in surplus, etc. due to decrease in bad debt write-off

Japan Student Services Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

- 3.5Decrease in subsidies, etc. due to collection ratio improvement

Welfare and Medical Service Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

- 7.9Increase in surplus, etc. due to lower-than-expected fundraising rate for past year

Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities

- 47.1Increase in surplus, etc. due to a gap between projected and actual fundraising interest rates

Development Bank of Japan Inc. - 58.4Increase in surplus, etc. due to new financing

7 other agencies - 11.7

△8,040 △8,040 △8,040億円

実質増減＋369億円

億円億円億円億円

29年度政策コスト

△1兆4,280

△1兆4,280

前提金利等調整後の30年度政策コスト

分析始期等調整後の29年度政策コスト

0億円

6,566億円③

②④ 645億円

50億円

△1兆4,606億円

①

△1兆4,975億円

-804.0 bil. yen

FY2018 policy cost

FY2018 policy cost after adjustment of assumed

interest rates

Real fluctuation

+36.9 bil. yen

FY2017 policy cost after adjustment of the number

of agencies subject to analysis

FY2017 policy cost

-804.0 bil. yen

-804.0 bil. yen

-1,428.0bil. yen

-1,428.0bil. yen

-1,460.6 bil. yen

-1,497.5 bil. yen

0.0 bil. yen

656.6 bil. yen

64.5 bil. yen

5.0 bil. yen

7

Pro

ject

Ins

titut

ions

National Hospital Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

- 15.6Decrease in operating cost grants related to policy medical care

National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (National Research and Development Agency)

- 0.4Increase in surplus, etc. due to decrease in medical service cost

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) (Construction Account)

+ 4.3Increase in FILP projects’ share of the Shinkansen bullet train line development program

Urban Renaissance Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

+ 95.8Decrease in payment to the government due to increase in rental housing business expenses


+ 23.9Increase in opportunity cost for investment due to the extension of an analysis period through the addition of new projects

Japan Water Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

+ 31.9Increase in government subsidies due to the implementation of new projects


+ 17.3Decrease in surplus, etc. due to decrease in operating revenues

New Kansai International Airport Co., Ltd.

- 41.9Increase in surplus, etc. due to increase in operating profits

Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd.

+ 10.1Decrease in surplus, etc. due to the implementation of new equipment investment

2 other agencies - 2.1

Total + 36.9

(See p.21-23 for details by agency.)

(Unit: trillion yen)

FY FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Policy cost of previous year 4.2 2.5 3.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 1.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.4

(1) After adjustment ofthe analysiscommencement period,etc.

4.1 2.1 3.1 2.3 2.6 3.1 1.5 -0.5 0.3 -1.5

Policy cost of current fiscal year 2.5 3.4 2.4 2.6 3.1 1.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.4 -0.8

(2) After adjustment ofassumed interest rates 3.8 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.3 2.7 -0.4 0.5 -1.5

Real fluctuation ((2)-(1)) -0.3 +0.4 +0.1 +0.6 +0.3 +0.2 +1.1 +0.0 +0.3 +0.0

(Reference) Real fluctuation of each year (FY2009~FY2018)

[Note] The above table only shows a real fluctuation on each year. As agencies and projects subject to the analysis vary by

year, components cannot be compared simply.

8

5. Sensitivity analysis

The sensitivity analysis estimates policy cost rises or falls on changes in some assumed

conditions, including assumed interest rates, charge-off and operating revenues according to each

FILP agency’s business operations.

【Sensitivity analysis (1) (Assumed interest rate +1%)】

(Unit: billion yen)

Institutions Fluctuation

FY2018 FY2017

Fin

anci

ng I

nsti

tuti

ons

Japan Finance Corporation +361.4 +331.9

Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations +20.3 +13.8Account for SME Loan Programs and Securitization Support Programs [Guarantee-type Operations] +219.2 +198.3

Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations +139.9 +137.5

Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses -18.0 -17.7Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Businesses Promotion, etc. -0.1 -0.0

Japan Bank for International Cooperation +90.0 +101.6Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +990.6 +769.9

Japan Student Services Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +25.0 +48.9

Welfare And Medical Service Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +34.5 +22.0

Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities +203.2 +261.7

Development Bank of Japan Inc. +570.6 +587.1

7 other agencies +32.8 +32.5

Pro

ject

Ins

titu

tion

s

National Hospital Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +107.5 +103.5

National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (National Research and Development Agency) +6.6 +7.8

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) (Construction Account) -60.5 -69.6

Urban Renaissance Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +1,799.6 +2,078.9

Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +1,065.3 +1,051.6

Japan Water Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) +12.6 +14.0

Forest Research and Management Organization (National Research and Development Agency) +10.8 +46.6

New Kansai International Airport Co., Ltd. +106.8 +111.9

Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd. +22.5 +24.9

2 other agencies +24.7 +26.7Total +5,404.0 +5,551.9

9

(Note 1) Numbers in the total columns represent the simple totals of fluctuations estimated based on assumptions

including analysis periods and business projections differing from agency to agency.

(Note 2) Each year’s fluctuation is broken down as follows:

(Unit: billion yen)

FY2018 FY2017

Subsidies, etc. from the government - 53.3 - 55.4

Payments to the government - 928.7 - 428.8

Opportunity cost for the government + 6,386.1 + 6,036.1

10

【Sensitivity analysis (2) (Charge-off increases 10%)】

(Unit: billion yen)

Agency name Fluctuation

FY2018 FY2017

Japan Bank for International Cooperation + 70.5 + 70.4

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

(Incorporated Administrative Agency) + 55.7 + 64.9

Japan Finance Corporation + 41.1 + 44.6

Development Bank of Japan Inc. + 5.3 + 6.0

Japan Student Services Organization


Japan Housing Finance Agency


The Okinawa Development Finance Corporation + 1.6 + 1.6

Welfare and Medical Service Agency


Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency

(Incorporated Administrative Agency) (Maritime Affairs Account) + 0.5 + 0.8

The Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools

of Japan + 0.1 + 0.4

Organization for Promoting Urban Development

(General Incorporated Foundation) + 0.1 + 0.4

【Sensitivity analysis (3) (Operating revenues down 10%)】

(Unit: billion yen)

Institutions Fluctuation

FY2018 FY2017

Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency


National Hospital Organization


Urban Renaissance Agency


Forest Research and Management Organization

(National Research and Development Agency) + 12.7 + 17.7

Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd. + 11.8 + 13.3

11

6. Breakdown of policy cost by causative factor

The breakdown of policy cost by causative factor classifies the policy cost of financing

institutions into causative factors including prepayments and loan losses.

【Breakdown of policy costs by causative factor】

(Unit: billion yen)

Institutions

(A)+(B)+(C) (A) (B) (C)

Policy Cost Effect of

prepayments

Effect of

loan losses

Effect of the

others (profit

margin, etc.)

Japan Finance Corporation 822.5 69.5 429.5 323.4 Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations 27.3 28.3 231.7 -232.7


6.6 35.9 195.6 -224.8

Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations

99.2 5.4 2.2 91.6

Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses 688.3 - - 688.3

Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Businesses Promotion, etc. 1.0 - - 1.0

Japan Bank for International Cooperation 56.8 28.9 652.2 -624.3Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

137.4 - 295.0 -157.6

Japan Student Services Organization (Incorporated Administrative Agency) 130.1 -16.7 42.3 104.4

Welfare And Medical Service Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) -33.5 2.1 0.7 -36.3

Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities -557.3 1.1 - -558.4

Development Bank of Japan Inc. -378.5 0.8 52.1 -431.4

7 other agencies 31.7 4.2 53.0 -25.6

(Note) A breakdown of each agency’s policy cost by causative factor is estimated based on assumptions including

analysis periods and business projections differing from agency to agency. Their simple totals are as follows:

FY2018 (14 agencies) FY2017 (14 agencies)

Effect of prepayments 89.9 billion yen 87.1 billion yen

Effect of loan losses 1,524.8 billion yen 1,741.1 billion yen

Effect of the others (profit margin, etc.) - 1,405.8 billion yen - 1,538.8 billion yen

12

○The main classification of 24 agencies that analyze FY2018 policy cost

(Reference 1) Breakdown of FY2018 policy cost by investment field (by component)

Broken down the FY2018 policy cost in line with the FY2018 FILP Classification Table by Purpose[Note] For agencies falling under multiple classification categories, their policy cost for FY2018 is prorated inaccordance with the ratios appropriated at the time of preparing the abovementioned classification table.

Classification

SMEs and micro enterprises

Agriculture, forestry andfisheries

Institutions

Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Food Business Operations), The OkinawaDevelopment Finance Corporation, Japan Water Agency

Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations, and for SME Loan Programs andSecuritization Support Programs), The Okinawa Development Finance Corporation

Environment

Welfare/medical care

Education

Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (General Account for Metal Mining)

The Okinawa Development Finance Corporation, The Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools of Japan,Welfare and Medical Service Agency, National Hospital Organization, National Cancer Center, National Cerebral andCardiovascular Center, National Center for Child Health and Development, National Institution for Academic Degrees and QualityEnhancement of Higher Education, Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities

Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Micro Business and Individual Operations), The Okinawa Development FinanceCorporation, The Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation for Private Schools of Japan, Japan Student Services Organization, JapanFinance Organization for Municipalities

Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Operations to Facilitate Crisis Responses)

Japan Bank for International Cooperation (Ordinary Operations, Special Operations), Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA)

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Construction Account), Urban Renaissance Agency, JapanExpressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency, Japan Water Agency, Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities, ForestResearch and Management Organization, New Kansai International Airport Co., Ltd., Organization for Promoting UrbanDevelopment, Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd.

Japan Housing Finance Agency, Urban Renaissance Agency, Japan Finance Organization for Municipalities

Japan Finance Corporation (Account for Operations to Facilitate Specific Business Promotion, etc.), The Okinawa DevelopmentFinance Corporation, Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Maritime Affairs Account), Japan Oil, Gasand Metals National Corporation (Account for Oil and Natural Gas), Development Bank of Japan Inc.

Industry/innovation

Others

Overseas investment andloans

Social capital

Housing

Agriculture,forestry and

fisheries 5.4%

Education0.3% Environment

0.001%

Industry/innovation1.0%

Housing

13.7%

Social capital38.8%

Overseas investment and

loans27.9%

Others

16.5%

<Opportunity cost for the Government: 4,162.4 billion yen>


8.4%

Agriculture, forestry and

fisheries5.0%

Education

8.0%Welfare/medical

care

9.5%

Environment0.03%Industry/innovation

0.1%

Housing5.8%

Social capital63.0%

Others0.0%


0.1%

Agriculture, forestry and

fisheries2.9%

Education0.3%

Welfare/medical care0.1%

Environment

0.001%Industry/

innovation

6.5%

Housing

67.4%

Social capital8.2%

Overseas investment and loans

14.5%

<Subsidies, etc. from the Government: 1,686.6 billion yen>

<Payment to the Government:-6,653.0 billion yen>

13

(1) 132.8 (1) 142.1(1) 65.8 (1) 84.4 (1) 150.1

(1) 134.4(1) 215.9

(1) 160.3(1) 0.5 (1) 0.5 (1) 1.7 (1) 2.4

(1) 81.0 (1) 98.5

(1) 1,134.2

(1) 1,063.3

(1) 2.8 (1) 0.6

(2) -10.3 (2) -9.8(2) -151.8(2) -192.1

(2) -12.3(2) -19.2(2) -45.4 (2) -5.4 (2) -0.1 (2) -0.1

(2) -384.7(2) -430.3

(2) -4,197.7(2) -4,485.7

(2) -1,515.2

(2) -545.1(2) -189.4

(2) -965.3

(3) -53.1(3) -97.3

(3) 168.7 (3) 224.7(3) 10.6

(3) 13.3

(3) -57.5 (3) -55.2

(3) 0.0 (3) 0.0 (3) 28.3 (3) 42.9

(3) 389.1(3) 569.9

(3) 1,676.6

(3) 1,616.9

(3) 434.3(3) 1,159.5

(3) 697.1(3) 687.7

△ 5,000.0

△ 4,000.0

△ 3,000.0

△ 2,000.0

△ 1,000.0

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018 FY2017 FY2018

SMEs andmicro enterprises

Agriculture,forestry

and fisheries

Education Welfare/medical care

Environment Industry/innovation

Housing Social capital Overseasinvestmentand loans

Others

(1)Subsidies, etc. from the Government (2)Payments to the Government (3)Opportunity cost for the Government （Unit：billion yen）

<Reference> Breakdown of policy cost by investment field (FY2017-2018)>

FY2017 cost 69.4 82.7 148.5 113.0 0.5 -354.7 -3,727.6 1,295.5 244.9 699.9

FY2018 cost 35.0 117.0 128.5 99.7 0.5 -385.0 -3,817.3 2,135.1 194.1 688.3

14

(Reference 2) Estimation of social and economic benefits

The policy cost has to be assessed comprehensively along with the social and economic benefits

that accompany the implementation of the projects. However, it is difficult to uniformly and

quantitatively ascertain the social and economic benefits of different projects.

Following are estimated social and economic benefits at project-implementing agencies that can

quantitatively estimate such benefits under generally unified standards by taking advantage of the

Cost-Benefit Analysis Manual and other guidelines prepared by the relevant government agencies

for public works:

(See p. 46-48 for details of the estimation method, etc.)

【Estimated social and economic benefits】

(Unit: billion yen, years)

Institutions

(Project name)

Social and economic

benefits

(Reference) Estimation based on the same discount factor and analysis period as those for the policy cost analysis

Analysis period

Analysis period

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

4,550.5 5,198.4

Construction Account (private railway project) 1,247.1 30 1,704.7 26

Construction Account (Shinkansen project) 3,303.4 50 3,493.7 27 Urban Renaissance Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency) 766.8 1,676.1

Projects to renew urban functions (land readjustment) 200.6 50 480.1 50

Projects to renew urban functions (urban renewal) 334.5 50 713.7 50

Residential environment development project 231.7 47 482.3 47 Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

The Expressway project 11,701.5 32 20,341.8 32 Japan Water Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

Construction of canals 17,198.9 50 29,149.6 38 Forest Research and Management Organization (National Research and Development Agency)

Forestation for water conservation 1,578.9 63 2,454.4 63 Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd.

Airport improvement project 2,001.7 37 1,686.7 17

(Note 1) The Cost-Benefit Analysis Manual and other guidelines fix the social discount factor to convert social benefits

into present value. Based on the past average yield on long-term government bonds, or the average fundraising

cost for social infrastructure development, the factor is set at 4% for the immediate future.

Here, the social discount factor (4%) and the same discount factor as used for the policy cost analysis are used

15

for estimating social and economic benefits. As the assumed interest rate for the FY2018 analysis is lower than

the social discount rate of 4%, social and economic benefits estimated with the discount factor for the policy cost

analysis are larger than those estimated with the social discount rate.

(Note 2) Social and economic benefits are estimated for the analysis period (service period) chosen in consideration of

the project implementation period specified in the Cost-Benefit Analysis Manual and other guidelines in light of

the project’s service life and for the same period as for the policy cost analysis (the redemption period).

(Note 3) It should be noted that these social and economic benefits were estimated separately by each agency based on

different business forecasts and other preconditions for different analysis periods and that calculation results vary

considerably depending on the used discount factor.

・The results of simply summing up calculation results based on the Cost-Benefit Analysis Manual are as follows:

FY2018: 37,798.4 billion yen (6 agencies) FY2017: 34,995.4 billion yen (6 agencies)

・The results of simply summing up calculation results based on the same discount factor and analysis period as

those for the policy cost analysis are as follows:

FY2018: 60,507.0 billion yen (6 agencies) FY2017: 52,701.4 billion yen (6 agencies)

(Note 4) Financing institutions do not calculate these benefits in the absence of uniform assumptions established for

them.

<Reference> Manuals and items for estimation Institutions Project name Manual Item for estimation

Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

Private railway projects

Railway project assessment manual 2012

User benefits from shortening of travel time and mitigation of morning rush-hour traffic congestion through (private) railway use

Shinkansen project Railway project assessment manual 2012

User benefits from shortening of travel time, reduction of transportation costs and improvement of transfer convenience through Shinkansen development

Urban Renaissance Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

Projects to renew urban functions (land renewal)

Cost-benefit analysis manual for land readjustment projects

Benefits from land price changes through improvement of profit for owners of redeveloped office buildings, and convenience and comfort for residents under land readjustment, urban redevelopment or resident land development projects in major urban regions

Projects to renew urban functions (urban renewal)

Cost-benefit analysis manual for urban redevelopment projects

Residential environment development projects

Cost-benefit analysis manual for residential development projects


Expressway projects Cost-benefit analysis manual

User benefits from shortening of travel time, savings of fuel and other transportation costs and reduction of traffic accidents through use of expressways and other toll roads

Japan Water Agency (Incorporated Administrative Agency)

Construction of canals (for agricultural water)

Basic data required for cost-benefit analysis for land improvement projects, etc.

Farming cost savings, crop production effects, etc. through construction of canals (for agricultural water)

Construction of canals (for city water)

Cost-benefit analysis for water supply projects

Reduction of water supply decline/disruption damage from drought and other disasters through construction of canals (for city water)

Construction of canals (for industrial water)

Guidelines for policy assessment involving industrial water supply

Reduction of industrial water procurement costs through

16

projects construction of canals (for industrial water) and avoidance of facility destruction risks through enhancement of earthquake resistance


Forestation for water conservation

Project assessment manual for forestry public works projects

Reservoir recharging benefits, mountain conservation benefits, environmental conservation benefits and timber production benefits through forestation at water source forests

Central Japan International Airport Co., Ltd.

Airport improvement project

Cost-benefit analysis manual for airport development projects, Ver. 4

User benefits, supplier benefits, regional business and resident benefits

17

(Unit: billion yen)

Change insurplus, etc.

b

Increase ininvestment

c

FY2018 - 804.0 1,686.6 - 6,653.0 4,162.4 7,222.7 - 3,190.3 129.9 4,600.1

FY2017 - 1,428.0 1,784.8 - 6,506.8 3,294.0 5,008.3 - 1,822.9 108.6 4,123.9

Fluctuation +624.0 -98.2 -146.1 +868.4 +2,214.4 -1,367.3 +21.3

<Government Financial Institutions>

FY2018 822.5 212.6 - 191.3 801.1 777.0 16.5 7.6 1,183.8

FY2017 842.1 187.6 - 150.9 805.4 660.8 135.7 9.0 1,174.0

Fluctuation -19.7 +25.0 -40.3 -4.3 +116.2 -119.2 -1.4

FY2018 27.3 74.0 － - 46.8 264.7 - 314.0 2.5 47.5

FY2017 63.8 69.8 － - 5.9 212.9 - 221.0 2.2 77.7

Fluctuation -36.6 +4.3 － -40.8 +51.8 -93.0 +0.4

FY2018 99.2 65.5 - 191.3 225.0 223.5 1.5 0.0 239.1

FY2017 68.3 47.8 - 150.9 171.5 168.5 1.2 1.8 205.8

Fluctuation +30.9 +17.7 -40.3 +53.6 +55.0 +0.4 -1.7

FY2018 6.6 71.6 － - 65.0 187.7 - 257.7 5.1 225.9

FY2017 9.4 66.6 － - 57.2 178.4 - 240.6 5.0 207.7

Fluctuation -2.7 +5.0 － -7.7 +9.3 -17.1 +0.0

FY2018 688.3 0.6 － 687.7 101.1 586.6 0.0 670.4

FY2017 699.9 2.8 － 697.1 100.9 596.1 0.0 682.2

Fluctuation -11.5 -2.2 － -9.3 +0.2 -9.5 +0.0

FY2018 1.0 0.9 － 0.1 0.0 0.0 － 0.9

FY2017 0.7 0.7 － 0.1 0.0 0.0 － 0.7

Fluctuation +0.2 +0.2 － +0.0 +0.0 +0.0 －

FY2018 6.4 3.2 - 21.2 24.3 23.8 - 0.0 0.5 15.0

FY2017 0.9 2.3 - 20.8 19.4 18.9 - 0.0 0.5 9.1

Fluctuation +5.5 +0.9 -0.3 +4.9 +4.9 +0.0 +0.0

FY2018 56.8 － - 225.8 282.6 289.5 - 14.8 7.9 146.7

FY2017 71.7 － - 189.4 261.2 257.6 - 7.3 10.9 173.3

Fluctuation -14.9 － -36.4 +21.4 +31.9 -7.5 -3.0

FY2018 52.9 － - 204.9 257.8 263.3 - 9.0 3.5 136.2

FY2017 68.1 － - 170.5 238.6 236.5 - 3.7 5.8 163.4

Fluctuation -15.1 － -34.4 +19.2 +26.8 -5.3 -2.3

FY2018 3.8 － - 20.9 24.8 26.2 - 5.8 4.4 10.6

FY2017 3.7 － - 18.9 22.6 21.1 - 3.6 5.0 9.9

Fluctuation +0.2 － -2.0 +2.2 +5.1 -2.3 -0.6

FY2018 137.4 － - 739.5 876.9 3,661.6 - 2,805.6 21.0 1,128.0

FY2017 173.2 －－ 173.2 2,104.9 - 1,943.6 11.9 943.1

Fluctuation -35.8 － -739.5 +703.7 +1,556.7 -862.1 +9.1

２．平成３０年度　政策コスト分析一覧（

InstitutionsPolicy cost①+②+③

Subsidiesfrom

government①

Payments tothe

government/corporate tax,

etc.②

Opportunitycost

=a+b+c③

Funds providedbefore the

beginning of theanalysis period

a

Policy costs expected to be newlyincurred during the analysis period

Japan InternationalCooperation Agency (JICA)(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)

Japan Finance Corporation

Account for MicroBusiness and IndividualOperations

Account for Agriculture,Forestry, Fisheries andFood BusinessOperations

Account for SME LoanPrograms and SecuritizationSupport Programs[Guarantee-typeOperations]

Account for Operationsto Facilitate CrisisResponses

Account for Operationsto Facilitate SpecificBusinesses Promotion,etc.

The Okinawa DevelopmentFinance Corporation

Japan Bank for InternationalCooperation

Note: Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.

Account for OrdinaryOperations

Account for SpecialOperations

合計②（公表機関のみを合計）

Sensitivityanalysis

Assumedinterest rate

+1%

Total

3. FY2018 Policy Cost Analysis Table (breakdown & sensitivity)

18

(Unit: billion yen)


b


c


Subsidiesfrom

government①

Payments tothe


etc.②

Opportunitycost

=a+b+c③



a


Sensitivityanalysis


+1%

<Incorporated Administrative Agencies, etc.>

FY2018 - 3.0 － - 21.0 18.0 18.9 - 0.8 － 19.5

FY2017 - 0.1 － - 15.1 15.0 16.5 - 1.5 － 23.2

Fluctuation -2.9 － -5.9 +3.0 +2.3 +0.7 －

FY2018 130.1 129.3 － 0.8 0.0 0.7 － 155.0

FY2017 145.4 145.4 － - 0.1 0.0 - 0.1 － 194.3

Fluctuation -15.3 -16.1 － +0.8 +0.0 +0.8 －

FY2018 - 33.5 5.7 － - 39.3 6.8 - 46.1 － 1.0

FY2017 - 20.5 5.3 － - 25.7 5.4 - 31.1 － 1.6

Fluctuation -13.1 +0.5 － -13.5 +1.4 -15.0 －

FY2018 109.3 130.3 － - 21.0 42.6 - 63.6 － 216.8

FY2017 129.8 181.1 － - 51.3 36.5 - 87.8 － 233.3

Fluctuation -20.5 -50.8 － +30.2 +6.0 +24.2 －

FY2018 7.3 10.1 － - 2.8 15.9 - 18.7 － 28.2

FY2017 6.3 10.4 － - 4.1 14.0 - 18.1 － 26.7

Fluctuation +1.1 -0.3 － +1.3 +2.0 -0.7 －

FY2018 14.7 8.8 － 5.8 5.0 0.9 － 21.3

FY2017 15.3 9.8 － 5.4 4.6 0.9 － 23.1

Fluctuation -0.6 -1.0 － +0.4 +0.4 +0.0 －

FY2018 3.6 4.9 － - 1.2 0.5 - 1.7 － 7.4

FY2017 4.8 4.7 － 0.1 0.7 - 0.6 － 8.6

Fluctuation -1.1 +0.2 － -1.3 -0.2 -1.1 －

FY2018

FY2017 5.0 4.2 － 0.8 2.0 - 1.2 － 7.4

Fluctuation -5.0 -4.2 － -0.8 -2.0 +1.2 －

FY2018 0.3 0.3 －－－－－ 0.3

FY2017 0.4 0.4 －－－－－ 0.4

Fluctuation -0.1 -0.1 －－－－－

FY2018 962.4 972.7 － - 10.3 3.1 - 13.4 － 908.6

FY2017 1,026.4 1,040.1 － - 13.7 3.0 - 16.7 － 963.2

Fluctuation -64.0 -67.4 － +3.4 +0.1 +3.3 －

FY2018 972.7 972.7 －－－－－ 912.1

FY2017 1,040.1 1,040.1 －－－－－ 970.4

Fluctuation -67.4 -67.4 －－－－－

FY2018 - 10.3 －－ - 10.3 3.1 - 13.4 － - 3.5

FY2017 - 13.7 －－ - 13.7 3.0 - 16.7 － - 7.2

Fluctuation +3.4 －－ +3.4 +0.1 +3.3 －

FY2018

FY2017 －－－－－－－－

Fluctuation －－－－－－－

FY2018 40.8 － - 70.2 111.0 3.0 102.3 5.8 35.9

FY2017 67.8 － - 75.9 143.7 2.3 141.4 － 62.5

Fluctuation -27.0 － +5.7 -32.7 +0.6 -39.1 +5.8

National Center for ChildHealth and Development(National Research andDevelopment Agency)

National Center forGeriatrics and Gerontology(National Research andDevelopment Agency)

National Institution for AcademicDegrees and Quality Enhancement ofHigher Education (IncorporatedAdministrativeAgency)

Japan Railway Construction,Transport and TechnologyAgency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)

Maritime AffairsAccount

Grant Account

Construction Account

Japan Housing FinanceAgency(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)


National Cancer Center(National Research andDevelopment Agency)

National Cerebral andCardiovascular Center(National Research andDevelopment Agency)

Japan Student ServicesOrganization(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)

Welfare And Medical ServiceAgency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)(General Account)

National HospitalOrganization(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)

The Promotion and MutualAid Corporation for PrivateSchools of Japan (GrantAccount)

19

(Unit: billion yen)


b


c


Subsidiesfrom

government①

Payments tothe


etc.②

Opportunitycost

=a+b+c③



a


Sensitivityanalysis


+1%

FY2018 - 3,850.2 98.5 - 4,408.4 459.7 483.6 - 24.7 0.8 - 2,050.6

FY2017 - 4,352.6 93.1 - 4,722.9 277.2 380.3 - 104.9 1.8 - 2,273.7

Fluctuation +502.3 +5.4 +314.5 +182.4 +103.3 +80.1 -1.0

FY2018 1,084.1 26.4 － 1,057.7 1,051.7 － 6.1 2,149.4

FY2017 838.7 19.1 － 819.7 814.2 － 5.5 1,890.3

Fluctuation +245.4 +7.3 － +238.0 +237.5 － +0.6

FY2018 70.8 76.0 － - 5.1 1.8 - 6.9 － 83.5

FY2017 58.1 72.5 － - 14.4 1.4 - 15.8 － 72.1

Fluctuation +12.7 +3.4 － +9.2 +0.4 +8.9 －

FY2018 - 557.3 － - 500.2 - 57.1 － - 57.1 － - 354.1

FY2017 - 631.4 － - 900.0 268.6 － 268.6 － - 369.7

Fluctuation +74.1 － +399.8 -325.6 － -325.6 －

FY2018 712.5 7.1 － 705.4 549.9 75.2 80.3 723.3

FY2017 676.1 8.3 － 667.8 433.6 165.1 69.1 722.7

Fluctuation +36.4 -1.2 － +37.6 +116.3 -89.9 +11.2

FY2018 0.5 0.6 - 0.1 0.0 － 0.0 － 0.5

FY2017 0.5 0.5 - 0.1 0.0 － 0.0 － 0.4

Fluctuation +0.0 +0.0 -0.0 +0.0 － +0.0 －

FY2018 0.5 0.5 - 0.1 0.0 － 0.0 － 0.4

FY2017 0.5 0.5 - 0.1 0.0 － 0.0 － 0.4

Fluctuation +0.0 +0.0 -0.0 +0.0 － +0.0 －

FY2018 0.0 0.0 －－－－－ 0.0

FY2017

Fluctuation +0.0 +0.0 －－－－－

<Special Corporations, etc.>

FY2018 - 378.5 0.0 - 420.8 42.3 252.4 - 210.1 － 192.1

FY2017 - 342.1 0.0 - 376.0 33.9 221.3 - 187.4 － 245.0

Fluctuation -36.4 -0.0 -44.8 +8.4 +31.1 -22.7 －

FY2018 - 84.7 － - 37.4 - 47.2 32.0 - 79.3 － 22.1

FY2017 - 74.4 － - 34.1 - 40.3 25.8 - 66.1 － 37.5

Fluctuation -10.2 － -3.3 -6.9 +6.2 -13.1 －

FY2018 - 3.0 － - 3.5 0.5 － 0.5 － - 3.2

FY2017 - 4.7 － - 5.3 0.6 － 0.6 － - 4.9

Fluctuation +1.7 － +1.7 -0.1 － -0.1 －

FY2018 - 53.1 － - 13.4 - 39.6 3.7 - 43.3 － - 30.6

FY2017 - 64.6 － - 16.2 - 48.4 4.5 - 52.9 － - 39.7

Fluctuation +11.5 － +2.8 +8.7 -0.8 +9.6 －

Japan Water Agency(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)

Account for Oil andNatural Gas

Urban Renaissance Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)(Urban Renaissance Account)

Development Bank of JapanInc.

New Kansai InternationalAirport Co., Ltd.

Organization for PromotingUrban Development(General IncorporatedFoundation)

Central Japan InternationalAirport Co., Ltd.


Japan Finance Organizationfor Municipalities

Forest Research and ManagementOrganization(National Research andDevelopment Agency)(Water Conservation ForestAccount)

Japan Oil, Gas and MetalsNational Corporation(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)

General Account forMetal Mining

Japan Expressway Holding andDebt Repayment Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)

20

(Unit: billion yen)

FY2018 -804.0 5,921

FY2017 -1,428.0 6,566 645

Fluctuation +624.0

(Real fluctuation) (+31.9)

-592.1

Impact of assumed interest: -656.6 +64.5

FY2017 -1,433.0

Fluctuation +629.0

(Real fluctuation) (+36.9)

<Government Financial Institutions>

FY2018 822.5

FY2017 842.1

Fluctuation -19.7 (Real fluctuation) (+108.3)

+24.3Impact of assumed interest: +4.7 +19.5

FY2017 63.8 ↑

Fluctuation -36.6 (Real fluctuation) (-12.3)

+7.8Impact of assumed interest: -9.5 +17.2

FY2017 68.3 ↑

Fluctuation +30.9 (Real fluctuation) (+38.7)


FY2017 9.4 ↑



FY2017 699.9 ↑



FY2017 0.7 ↑


-0.4Impact of assumed interest: -1.3 +0.9

FY2017 0.9 ↑


FY2017 71.7


-34.0Impact of assumed interest: -9.7 -24.3

FY2017 68.1 ↑



FY2017 3.7 ↑

Fluctuation +0.2 (Real fluctuation) (-1.5)

+20.3Impact of assumed interest: +42.9 -22.6

FY2017 173.2 ↑


2: In the "Primary Cause of Real Fluctuation" column, "Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation" is the total of the Impact of assumed interest plus Policy cost during FY2017.

3: A breakdown of policy cost by causative factor was estimated and noted for agencies with a mark in the Remarks column.

◎

Policy cost during FY2017:

New financing: -11.4Bad debt write-off: -47.4Advanced redemption: +1.2Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +8.4

27

Account for OrdinaryOperations

FY2018 3.8 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:

20

◎


New financing: -56.1Bad debt write-off: +1.2Advanced redemption: +0.3Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +53.1

20

Account for Special Operations



37

Japan Bank for InternationalCooperation

FY2018 56.8


26

Note 1: Figures may not add up to the total because of rounding.


New financing: +42.8Bad debt write-off: -80.2Finalization of FY2016 results: -41.6Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +63.5

40

Japan International CooperationAgency (JICA)(IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)


50

◎


Increase in scale of new projects covered by loss indemnification, etc.: +75.020

Account for Operations toFacilitate Specific BusinessesPromotion, etc.


20

Account for Operations toFacilitate Crisis Responses


20

◎


Increase in clerical costs, etc. : +0.320

The Okinawa DevelopmentFinance Corporation


37

◎

◎

Account for Agriculture,Forestry, Fisheries and FoodBusiness Operations


60

◎



31

Account for SME LoanPrograms and SecuritizationSupport Programs [Guarantee-type Operations]


21

◎

◎


New financing: +9.4Bad debt write-off: +14.2Advanced redemption: -10.6Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +25.8

60

Japan Finance Corporation

Account for Micro Businessand Individual Operations


31


New financing: -70.9Bad debt write-off: -2.5Advanced redemption: +0.5Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +79.5

21

Institutions Policy Cost Primary Cause of Real FluctuationAnalysisperiod(years)

Note

Total ① (Simple addition)

Total ②(For FILP agencies [their accounts]for both FY2017 and FY2018)

FY2018 -804.0 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:


4. FY2018 Policy Cost Analysis Table (Past year comparison)

21


Note

<Incorporated Administrative Agencies, etc.>


FY2017 -0.1 ↑



FY2017 145.4 ↑



FY2017 -20.5 ↑



FY2017 129.8 ↑



FY2017 6.3 ↑



FY2017 15.3 ↑



FY2017 4.8 ↑


－

Impact of assumed interest: －－

FY2017 5.0 ↑

Fluctuation -5.0 (Real fluctuation)


FY2017 0.4 ↑


FY2017 1,026.4



FY2017 1,040.1 ↑



FY2017 -13.7 ↑


－


FY2017 - ↑

Fluctuation - (Real fluctuation)




Medical service income increase: -1.3Increase in operating cost grants related to policy medical care: +0.2

13

National Center for Geriatricsand Gerontology(National Research andDevelopment Agency)

FY2018 - Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:

-


Increase in clerical costs : +0.030

National Institution for AcademicDegrees and QualityEnhancement of HigherEducation(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)


26

National Cerebral andCardiovascular Center(National Research andDevelopment Agency)


Depreciation cost decrease, etc.: -5.3Asset sale profit decrease, etc.: +4.9

27

National Cancer Center(National Research andDevelopment Agency)


Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:Policy cost during FY2017:

FY2018 14.7

FY2018 7.3

FY2018


New financing: +7.0Bad debt write-off: +0.7Finalization of FY2016 results: -13.0Other e.g. (operating revenue increase): -2.6 37

Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:16

◎


Income decrease due to business asset decrease: +2.4Other e.g. (decrease in reversal of loan loss reserves): +0.1

16

Construction Account

FY2018 972.7 27

28

Maritime Affairs Account

◎

◎


New financing: +7.0Impact of collection ration: -1.2Advanced redemption: -1.5Other e.g. (revenue increase): -7.8 26


Increase in medical service cost: +35.0Research income increase, etc.: -41.4Other e.g. (Reduction in surplus): +5.4


Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:




Japan Student ServicesOrganization (IncorporatedAdministrative Agency)


26

Subsidy increase accompanying a rise in FILP projects’ share of subsidized projects: +4.3

Grant Account

FY2018 - Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:

-Policy cost during FY2017:

[Exempt from analysis in FY2018]39

-10.3

Japan Railway Construction,Transport and TechnologyAgency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)

29


Decrease in operating cost grants related to policy medical care : -40.4Reduction in surplus : +24.8

29

FY2018

962.4

◎


New financing: -2.7Bad debt write-off: -0.7Finalization of FY2016 results: -0.1Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +2.1 26

The Promotion and Mutual AidCorporation for Private Schoolsof Japan (Grant Account)

FY2018 -3.0

National Hospital Organization(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)


[Exempt from analysis in FY2018]31

Welfare And Medical ServiceAgency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)(General Account)

38

National Center for Child Healthand Development(National Research andDevelopment Agency)

FY2018 -33.5


12

◎

FY2018 109.3

22


Note


FY2017 67.8 ↑



FY2017 -4,352.6 ↑



FY2017 838.7 ↑



FY2017 58.1 ↑



FY2017 -631.4 ↑



FY2017 676.1 ↑


FY2017 0.5



FY2017 0.5 ↑


－


FY2017 - ↑

Fluctuation +0.0 (Real fluctuation)

<Special Corporations, etc.>

-22.0Impact of assumed interest: +13.6 -35.7

FY2017 -342.1 ↑



FY2017 -74.4 ↑



FY2017 -4.7 ↑



FY2017 -64.6 ↑





Opportunity cost increase accompanying extension of analysis periods through new projects, etc.:+23.9

34

Japan Expressway Holding andDebt Repayment Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)

FY2018 1,084.1 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:

35

Organization for PromotingUrban Development (GeneralIncorporated Foundation)

FY2018

26Policy cost during FY2017:

Forest Research and ManagementOrganization(National Research andDevelopment Agency)(Water Conservation ForestAccount)


89


41

◎


New financing: -2.4Bad debt write-off: -0.4Finalization of FY2016 results: +4.0Other e.g. (decrease in clerical costs) : -0.2 21

New financing : -76.9Bad debt write-off: +2.9Advanced redemption: -0.1Other e.g. (new loan administrative expenses): +15.7

-378.5 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:


◎

26

Development Bank of Japan Inc.

FY2018

-3.0 Adjustment to calculate real fluctuation:

20


Decrease in surplus due to new capital investment: +3.7Increase in estimated demand: -1.4Increase in clerical costs : +7.8 18


Increase in surplus, etc. due to revision of income and expenditure projections: -41.942

Central Japan InternationalAirport Co., Ltd.


17

New Kansai International AirportCo., Ltd.


Capital subscription increase: +3.7Timber sales revenue decrease: +13.6

89

0.5

General Account for MetalMining


16

Japan Housing Finance Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)


40

◎


New financing: +6.3Bad debt write-off: -11.9Finalization of FY2016 results: -11.9Decrease in clerical costs : -1.4 40

Japan Finance Organization forMunicipalities

FY2018 -557.3

Japan Water Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)


38

Urban Renaissance Agency(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)(Urban Renaissance Account)

FY2018 -3,850.2

[Subject to analysis starting from FY2018]-

◎


Increase in clerical cost due to new financing, etc.: +0.116


Increase in subsidies: +12.9Reduction in surplus : +21.1Other e.g. (Investment profit increase): -2.1 31



Decrease in payment to the treasury due to increase in rental housing business expenses, etc.: +67.5Increase in receipts of subsidies, etc.: +30.9Other e.g. (Capital subscription decrease): -2.6 80

Account for Oil and NaturalGas


14

◎

Japan Oil, Gas and MetalsNational Corporation(Incorporated AdministrativeAgency)

FY2018

◎


Gap between projected and actual fundraising interest rates, etc.: -47.120



23

I.Policy Cost Analysis...II.Points of the FY2018 analysis 1.Policy cost total In FY2018, 24 FILP...

Documents

Transcript of I.Policy Cost Analysis...II.Points of the FY2018 analysis 1.Policy cost total In FY2018, 24 FILP...