IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
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IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis Thomas Stocker Co-Chair Working Group I University of Bern, Switzerland IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis": Challenges, Structure and Timetable
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IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis. IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis": Challenges, Structure and Timetable. Thomas Stocker. Co-Chair Working Group I University of Bern, Switzerland. IPCC (2007):. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Thomas Stocker
Co-Chair Working Group IUniversity of Bern, Switzerland
IPCC AR5 "The Physical Science Basis":
Challenges, Structure and Timetable
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections
• Warming in the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations ....
• Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations.
• Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ...
IPCC (2007):
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
Overview of topical groups of chapters in WGI of AR5:
Introduction Chapter 1
Observations and Paleoclimate Information Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5
Process Understanding Chapters 6, 7
From Forcing to Attribution of Climate Change Chapters 8, 9, 10
Future Climate Change and Predictability Chapters 11, 12
Integration Chapters 13, 14
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
New features in WGI AR5
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
New features in WGI AR5
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
New features in WGI AR5
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
The full Outline of WGI is available on www.ipcc.unibe.ch
New features in WGI AR5
Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections:Editorial Team, Review Editor Team, Advisory Board
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal PointsMay Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI BureauNov LA1 Kunming, China
Mar-Jun Completion of zero-order draft, and reviewJul LA Meeting 2Nov-Feb Completion of first-order draft, and review
Apr LA Meeting 3Jul 31 cut-off for submitted papersAug-Nov Completion of second-order draft, and review
Jan LA Meeting 4Mar 15 cut-off for accepted papersJun Completion of final draftJun-Aug Final government distribution and review of SPMSep 16-19 WGI AR5 Approval Plenary
2010
2011
2012
2013
Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5:
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal PointsMay Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI BureauNov LA1 Kunming, China
2010
Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5:
Your expertise in AR5 is needed:
Please contact your IPCC Focal Point
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
Challenges:
Amount of material (literature, simulations) and the burden to the scientific community
Significantly broader model diversity and likely increase in uncertainty
Communication of uncertainties: what is known, what is emerging
More cross-WG cooperation retaining full coherency
Maintain the highest standards under increased pressure and expectations in a highly politicized environment
Transparency, Rigorosity, Comprehensiveness, Robustness
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
What do you require of WCRP ?
1. Clouds & Aerosols: Processes and Sensitivities
2. Decadal Prediction: Evaluation and Verification
3. Multi-Model Ensembles using Earth System Models
4. Regional Climate Change: D&A and Projections
5. Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities
6. Geoengineering
WCRP organizes and catalizes the science, defines priorities, launches big programs, oversees multi-year international research
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis: Challenges, Structure, Timetable
Jan-Mar 12 Nomination of CLAs, LAs, and REs by IPCC Focal PointsMay Selection of CLAs, LAs, and REs by WGI BureauNov LA1 Kunming, China
2010
Timetable of the WGI Contribution to AR5:
Your expertise in AR5 is needed:
Please contact your IPCC Focal Point
Information: [email protected]
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