IPCC Synthesis ReportPart I

• Overview

• How to address the issue of “dangerous anthropogenic perturbation” to the climate system

• The relationship between climate change and development, equity and sustainability

Robert Watson

Mother Earth -- Our Home

It is has water, oxygen and a hospitable climate

World Population 6,056,528,577

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

The Challenge: Sustainable Energy

The Challenge: Food Security

Food production needs to double to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30 years

Climate change is projected to decrease agricultural productivity in the tropics and sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming

The Challenge: Sustainable Forestry

Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population

Wood demand will double in next 50 years

Climate change is projected to increase forest productivity, but forest management will become more difficult, due to an increase in pests and fires

The Challenge: Water Security

Water Services

One third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity

Population facing water scarcity will more than double over the next 30 years

Climate change is projected to decrease water availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions

The Challenge: Sustainable Fisheries

The Challenge: Sustainable use & conservation of biodiversity

Climate change will exacerbate the loss of biodiversity

Estimated 10-15% of the world’s species could become extinct over the next 30 years

Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and services

Food and Fiber Production

Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water

Maintenance of Biodiversity

Maintenance of Human Health

Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus

Agricultural Lands

CoastalZones

ForestLands

FreshwaterSystems

Arid Lands & Grasslands

Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems to provide a range of essential ecological goods and services

The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet

Key Findings

• Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but a development issue

• Global and regional changes have been observed in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, earth's surface temperature, precipitation, extreme climatic events, sea level

• These have caused changes in biological, physical and socio-economic systems

• Most of the observed warming of the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

Questions 1 & 2

• Future changes in atmospheric composition and climate are inevitable with increases in temperature and some extreme events, and regional increases and decreases in precipitation, leading to an increased risks of floods and droughts

• There are both beneficial and adverse effects of climate change, but the larger the changes and rate of change in climate, the more the adverse effects predominate with developing countries being the most vulnerable

Question 3

Key Findings

• Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change, but will not prevent all damages

• Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the interacting climate, ecological and socio-economic systems which means that the impacts may not be observed for decades to centuries and mal-adaptations may be implemented

Questions 3 & 5

Key Findings

• Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century can set in motion large-scale, high-impact, non-linear, and potentially abrupt changes in physical and biological systems over the coming decades to millennia

• Sustained warming of a few oC over millennia is projected to lead to an increase in sea level of several meters due to loss of Greenland and Antarctic Ice

Question 4

Key Findings

• Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will require global emissions to decline to only a small fraction of current emissions -- even after stabilization of CO2 concentrations, sea level will continue to rise for millennia

• Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and 1000ppm would result in an equilibrium temperature rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC above 1990 levels, respectively. Increases in non-CO2 concentrations would increase these estimates

• The lower the level of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations the greater the benefits in terms of avoided damages

Question 6

Key Findings

• There are many opportunities, including technological options, to reduce near-term emissions, but barriers to their deployment exist, and cost estimates vary greatly

• There are substantial opportunities for lowering mitigation costs, e.g. by using all greenhouse gases, the Kyoto trading mechanisms and sinks

• On the other hand, costs are under-estimated because models assume emissions trading without transaction costs and that economies have already begun to adjust to meet Kyoto targets

Question 7

Key Findings

• Emissions constraints on Annex I countries have well-established “spill-over” effects on non-Annex I countries

• Technology development and diffusion are important components of cost-effective stabilization

• The pathway to stabilization and the stabilization level itself are key determinants of mitigation costs

Question 7

Key Findings

• Local, regional and global environmental issues are inextricably linked and affect sustainable development – climate change, loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, desertification, freshwater availability and air quality are all inter-linked

• The primary factors underlying most environmental and socio-economic issues are similar, i.e., economic growth, broad technological changes, life-style patterns and demographic shifts

Question 8

Key Findings

• There are synergistic opportunities to simultaneously address these issues that enhance benefits, reduce costs and more sustainably meet human needs

• The capacity of a country to adapt or mitigate can be enhanced when climate policies are integrated into national development policies – economic, social and environmental

Question 8

Key Findings

What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System?

• Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference to the climate system” is a value judgment determined through socio-political processes informed by scientific, technical and socio-economic information

• The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and depends upon:

– the impacts of climate change, which depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and

–adaptive and mitigative capacity

What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System….

• Climate change decision-making is a sequential process under general uncertainty

• Climate change is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development

Climate Change – An integrated framework