I=PATvs.

SatoyamaShun SATO (Chiba University)2016-05-13 fri. IAIA @Nagoya

15min.+QA

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-- Paradigms of SD Indicators

※ SD: Sustainable Development ≒ Sustainability

Author’s Bio

Shun Sato is a PhD student at Chiba Univ GSHSS.

He studies theories and roles of SD Indicators.

Bachelor’s degree: integrated human studies, Kyoto Univ.Master’s degree: global environmental studies, Kyoto Univ.

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Summary Statement

Many previous sustainable development / sustainability indicators are based on

I=PAT model (environmental Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology),

though SATOYAMA model (human interventions play good roles) is also needed.3

I=PATmodel logic

Satoyamamodel logic

Today’s Topics1) What’s I=PAT ?2) What’s Satoyama ?3) Examples of some SD Indicators4) Discussion

1) Sustainability Indicators: why I=PAT model ?2) Relationships between Human & Nature: is

Satoyama model new paradigm?

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What’sI=PAT ?

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I=PAT equationI: environmental Impact

human impact on the environment

P: Populationpopulation size

A: Affluencegoods consumed per capita

T: Technologypollution generated by technology per consumed

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cf. Kaya Identity (Yoichi KAYA) in IPCC Report

CO2Emission =𝐶𝐶𝑂𝑂2

Ener𝑔𝑔𝑔𝑔 ×Energy

GDP ×𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺

Population × Population

7Johan Rockström (2015)Bounding the Planetary Future: Why We Need a Great Transitionhttp://www.greattransition.org/publication/bounding-the-planetary-future-why-we-need-a-great-transition

Planetary Boundaries (2009;2015)ver.1 ver.2

8Johan Rockström (2015)Bounding the Planetary Future: Why We Need a Great Transitionhttp://www.greattransition.org/publication/bounding-the-planetary-future-why-we-need-a-great-transition

Planetary Boundaries (2009;2015)ver.1 ver.2

▼ PAT(Human activity)

9Johan Rockström (2015)Bounding the Planetary Future: Why We Need a Great Transitionhttp://www.greattransition.org/publication/bounding-the-planetary-future-why-we-need-a-great-transition

Planetary Boundaries (2009;2015)ver.1 ver.2

▼ I(Environmental Impact)

10Johan Rockström (2015)Bounding the Planetary Future: Why We Need a Great Transitionhttp://www.greattransition.org/publication/bounding-the-planetary-future-why-we-need-a-great-transition

Planetary Boundaries (2009;2015)ver.1 ver.2

▼ I(Environmental Impact)

▼ PAT(Human activity)

I=PAT

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HumanActivity

Nature(Environment)

BAD

the bigger, the worse…

What’s SATOYAMA ?

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13

=rural town＝mountain

Maruyama (2007)

田＝paddy field(with human intervention)

土＝ soil

←these gradation area→

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We Care and UseNatural Stocks

New HarmonizedEcosystem(Ecological Cycle)

6FFoodFiberFeedFertilizerFuelForest

15Social Vision in an Era of Population Decline from the Perspective of Local Economy and Well-being | Japan for Sustainabilityhttp://www.japanfs.org/en/news/archives/news_id034791.html

into the age of

population decline

JAPANindustry structurehas changed and…

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DEER BAMBOOcollapse ecological harmonyharm to human timber production/agriculture

Satoyama

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HumanActivity

(Secondly)

NatureGOOD

Satoyama

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HumanActivity

(Secondly)

NatureGOOD

Examples of someSD IndicatorsThesedays

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FUTURE

History

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1900

s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

60s

70s

80s

90s

2000

s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

[GNP/GDP]

[Social]

[Subjective]

[Environment/Nature]

GNPby S.Kuznets

SDGsUN (2015)

68SNA 93SNA 08SNA

BLIOECD (2011)

IWIOECD (2012)

EFRees (1992)Rees&Wackenagel(1994)

PBRockstrom et al (2009)Steffen et al (2015)

LPIWWF (1997)

SWB/Happiness

[SD]Our Common Future (1987)

HDIUNDP (1993)

HPInef (2006)

SDGs (2015):Sustainable Development Goals

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17 Goals169 Targetsmany Indicators

2016=>2030

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LPI: Living Planet IndexEF: Ecological FootprintPB: Planetary Boundaries(DE: Doughnut Economics)

WWF (2014)

These are mainly based on

I=PAT model

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HumanActivity

Nature(Environment)

BAD

the bigger, the worse…

DISCUSSION (1)why I=PAT model ?

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FUTURE

History

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1900

s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

60s

70s

80s

90s

2000

s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

[GNP/GDP]

[Social]

[Subjective]

[Environment/Nature]

GNPby S.Kuznets

SDGsUN (2015)

68SNA 93SNA 08SNA

BLIOECD (2011)

IWIOECD (2012)

EFRees (1992)Rees&Wackenagel(1994)

PBRockstrom et al (2009)Steffen et al (2015)

LPIWWF (1997)

SWB/Happiness

[SD]Our Common Future (1987)

HDIUNDP (1993)

HPInef (2006)

FUTURE

History

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1900

s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

60s

70s

80s

90s

2000

s

10s

20s

30s

40s

50s

[GNP/GDP]

[Social]

[Subjective]

[Environment/Nature]

[World Population]

1.6B人ノ

5B人人人人人

7B人人人人人人人

6B人人人人人人

GNPby S.Kuznets

SDGsUN (2015)

2.5B人人ノ

68SNA 93SNA 08SNA

BLIOECD (2011)

IWIOECD (2012)

EFRees (1992)Rees&Wackenagel(1994)

PBRockstrom et al (2009)Steffen et al (2015)

LPIWWF (1997)

SWB/Happiness

[SD]Our Common Future (1987)

HDIUNDP (1993)

HPInef (2006)

9B人人人人人人人人人

IUCN et al.(1980)World Conservation Strategy

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the term “Sustainable Development” first used in the international contextincreasing population was the big problem

DISCUSSION (2)about Human and Nature

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Satoyama

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HumanActivity

(Secondly)

NatureGOOD

SATOYAMA

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HumanActivity

(Secondly)

NatureGOOD

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I: Human AND Nature

II: Human IN Nature

III: Human AS Nature

Satoyama model= a new paradigm

nature is just an outer separated resource

nature (earth) is our fundamental base

we human are part of natureour activity can be a part of (new harmonized) ecological cycle

I=PAT

=Satoyama

← now main paradigm

Conclusion

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Summary Statement

Many previous sustainable development / sustainability indicators are based on

I=PAT model (environmental Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology),

though SATOYAMA model (human interventions play good roles) is also needed.33

I=PATmodel logic

Satoyamamodel logic

human AS naturehuman AND/IN naturenew paradigm

Implicationfor Impact AssessmentWe should consider…

Demographic Change(now&future)- Increasing / Decreasing- Aging

Both Impact- Good Impact / Bad Impact

and we may activelymake positive impacts

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ThanksShun SATOshun.satoh@gmail.comfacebook/ linkedin

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Appendix

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Discussion PointI am wondering…

Satoyama logic model is…• only for

• Japan ? (other country?)• local level ? (national/ regional/ global/ universal

level?)• rural area ? (urban area?)

• really• paradigm level ?• only technical level ? (e.g. I=PAT, T<0)

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Additional IDEA

Neo-Satoyamacf. Urban minecf. Man-made naturally-regenerating forest

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Definitions of SD1) Our Common Future (1987)

Needs, Present generation, Future generation

2) Triple Bottom Line (+α)Environment, Society, Economy (+ Well-being…)

3) Herman Daly’s PrinciplesRenewable resources, Non-renewable resources, Waste absorption

4) Non-decline of well-beingHeadonic well-being, Evaluative well-being, Eudaimoniac well-being

5) Non-decline of productive basecapital assets, enabling assets

6) Non-decline of population

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Stiglitz, Sen, Fittousi (2009; 2010)

Beyond GDP1) improve GDP2) measure Quality of Life3) measure Sustainability

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Roles of Indicators1) Instrumental role2) Conceptual role3) Political role

EU FP7 Research ProjectPOINT: policy influence on indicatorsBRAINPOOL: bringing alternative indicators into policy

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