IP 1Q08 Earnings Final Screen Versions1.q4cdn.com/597881801/files/doc_presentations/...3 First...
Transcript of IP 1Q08 Earnings Final Screen Versions1.q4cdn.com/597881801/files/doc_presentations/...3 First...
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First Quarter2008 Review
April 30, 2008Tim S. Nicholls
Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
John V. FaraciChairman & Chief Executive Officer
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Forward-Looking Statements
These slides and statements made during this presentation contain forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's current views and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Factors which could cause actual results to differ relate to: (i) industry conditions, including but not limited to changes in the cost or availability of raw materials and energy, transportation costs, the company's product mix, demand and pricing for its products; (ii) global economic conditions and political changes, particularly in Latin America, Russia, Europe and Asia, including but not limited to changes in currency exchange rates, credit availability, and the company's credit ratings issued by recognized credit rating organizations; (iii) natural disasters, such as hurricanes and earthquakes; (iv) the company's ability to realize anticipated profit improvement from its transformation plan, and (v) unanticipated expenditures related to the cost of compliance with environmental and other governmental regulations and to actual or potential litigation. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. These and other factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differing materially from such forward looking statements are discussed in greater detail in the company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings.
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First Quarter 2008 Results Summary
Volumes– Weakened in North America– Held up outside North America
Prices– Improved globally
Input Costs– Escalated globally
Improved free cash flow
Lower Forest Products earnings
Ilim’s 4Q07 earnings on track
$0.30$0.41 $0.37
$0.15
$0.28
$0.04
1Q07 4Q07 1Q08Forest Products EPSOperating Business EPS
$0.45$0.41
$0.69
Earnings from continuing operations before special items
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0.37
.45
.21 .01
.07
0.04
(.24)
(.03).01
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
1Q '07 Price Volume Cost/Mix Materials &Freight
Interest Ilim Shares 1Q '08
$ / Share
IPG .05CPG .02 P&C .09 Europe .05
Fiber (.06) Chemicals (.08) Energy (.08) Freight (.02)
NA Papers .03 Outages .04
1Q08 vs. 1Q07 EPSHigher Costs, Higher Prices, Lower Forest Products Earnings
.30
.15 .04
Earnings from continuing operations before special items
Forest Products Earnings
.41
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Global Sales Volumes1Q08 vs. 1Q07
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Printing Papers
Pulp Container board
CoatedPaperboard
Container xpedxRevenue
M To
ns
1Q07 1Q08
Δ 0% 5% 28% 2% 3% 19%
xpedx includes the addition of Central Lewmar revenues
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6
(16)
(40)
(52)(53)($60)
($50)
($40)
($30)
($20)
($10)
$0
Energy Chemicals Fiber Freight
Mill
ion
North America Outside North America
Increasing Global Input & Freight Costs $161MM, or $0.24/Share Impact vs. 1Q07
Input costs for continuing businessesPercentage change reflects North American input costs
N.A. Δ 24% 26% 3% 6%
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($200)
($100)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2003 vs. 2002 2004 vs. 2003 2005 vs. 2004 2006 vs. 2005 2007 vs. 2006 1Q08 vs. 1Q07
Millio
n
Price Increases / Decreases Input Cost Increases
Recovering North American Input Cost IncreasesRecovered via Price Increases
North American Papers & Packaging
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($90)
($80)
($70)
($60)
($50)
($40)
($30)
($20)
($10)
$0
Mill
ion
Wood Energy Chemicals Freight OCC
Global Input & Freight Costs by Segment $161 Million Global Impact 1Q08 vs. 1Q07
Consumer Packaging
($27)
Industrial Packaging
($45)
Printing Papers($89)
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$127
$21
$145$127
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
1Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Mill
ion
Business Corporate
Corporate Items10% Reduction 1Q07 vs. 1Q08
$164$148
$201
$56$37
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185
167
15211 (10)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
1Q07 NorthAmerica
Paper
NorthAmerica
Pulp
Europe Brazil 1Q08
Mill
ion
Printing Papers Earnings1Q08 vs. 1Q07
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11Average IP price realization (includes the impact of mix across all grades)
$28€44$69$62
Price/ton
46%(1%)(5%)(7%)
Volume
1Q08 vs. 1Q07
Price/ton
1Q08 vs. 4Q07
(7%)2%
(14%)(1%)
Volume
($20)Brazilian Uncoated Papers(€7)European Uncoated Papers$26U.S. Pulp$24N.A. Uncoated Papers
Business
$185$1,7151Q08
$243$1,7204Q07
$167$1,5401Q07
EarningsSales
$ Million
Printing Papers
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Printing Papers Earnings1Q08 vs. 1Q07
185167
91
25
(89)
(9)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
1Q '07 Price Materials &Freight
Cost / Mix Volume 1Q '08
Mill
ion
NA 22 Europe 4 Brazil (1)
NA 58 Europe 31 Brazil 2
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97
73
321
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
1Q07 North America Europe 1Q08
Mill
ion
Industrial Packaging Earnings1Q08 vs. 1Q07
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14Average IP price realization (includes the impact of mix across all grades)
€63$47$43
Price / Ton
(4%)Flat29%
Volume
1Q08 vs. 1Q07
€41%European Container
1Q08 vs. 4Q07
(2%)10%
Volume
$21N.A. Container$19N.A. Containerboard
Price / TonBusiness
$97
$1,445
1Q08
$109
$1,390
4Q07
$73
$1,235
1Q07
Earnings
Sales
$ Million
Industrial Packaging
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97
73
28
1031
(45)
$0
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
1Q '07 Price Volume Cost / Mix Materials &Freight
1Q '08
Mill
ion
Industrial Packaging Earnings 1Q08 vs. 1Q07
Outages 24 Mix 14 Cost (10)
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16Average IP price realization (includes the impact of mix across all grades)*Excludes a special item of ($5) million related to the reorganization of Shorewood’s Canadian operations
NAPrice
$31
Price/Ton
4%Revenue
4%
Volume
1Q08 vs. 1Q07
PriceRevenueBusiness
1Q08 vs. 4Q07
(7%)
1%
Volume
NAConverting Businesses
$12U.S. Coated Paperboard
Price/TonBusiness
$14*
$770
1Q08
$15
$780
4Q07
$40
$715
1Q07
Earnings
Sales
$ Million
Consumer Packaging
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$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1Q '07 Price Volume Cost / Mix Materials& Freight
Other 1Q '08
Mill
ion
Consumer Packaging Earnings1Q08 vs. 1Q07
(13)
14*
142
(27)
(2)
40
*Excludes a special item of ($5) million related to the reorganization of Shorewood’s Canadian operations
Cost (6) Mix (6) Outages (1)
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$16
$1,985
1Q08
$28
$2,045
4Q07
$20
$1,675
1Q07
Earnings
Sales
$ Million
xpedx
Operating earnings up slightly from 1Q07– Including incremental bad debt expenses– Including Canadian unit start-up costs
Earnings decline since 1Q07 due to changes in overhead allocation
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Forest Products
13,00061,00030,000Acres Sold
$1,871$2,750$2,659Price / Acre
$25
$25
1Q08
$171
$190
4Q07
$97
$85
1Q07
Earnings ($ Million)
Sales ($ Million)
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Ilim Joint Venture 4Q07 ResultsIP’s Share: $17MM or $0.04 EPS
Strong end-use markets in Russia & China– Solid economic growth– Growing demand for pulp, paper & packaging– Increasing pricing
Business performing ahead of plan– Shipments of 663,000 MT– Producing at full capacity– 20%+ EBITDA margins
Ilim board of directors has approved $350 million 2008 capital plan
• IP’s share of the earnings includes a ($6) million one-time fair market value adjustment to work-in-process and finished goods inventories
• Ilim EBITDA margin is on a 100% basis before IP adjustments and IP NA margins excludes Forest Products and xpedx
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Free Cash Flow Improvement
$118
($178)
$296
1Q07
$172Free Cash Flow
($215)Less Capital Investment
$387Cash Provided by Continuing Operations
1Q08Free Cash Flow($ Million)
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Weyerhaeuser CBPR Acquisition UpdateCreating the Premier Global Supplier
Compelling Valuation
Well-Maintained, Quality Assets
Consistent with Transformation Plan
Significant Synergies
Good Strategic Fit
Higher EBITDA Margins and Cash Flow
Low Integration Risk
Improves Core Business
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Weyerhaeuser CBPR Acquisition UpdateImproving the Quality of our Earnings
2005EBITDA - $2.8B
2007 Pro Forma with Weyerhaeuser Assets
EBITDA - $3.9B(1)
Printing Papers
Packaging
Forest Products
Distribution
Arizona Chemical
Coated Papers
Wood Products
Beverage Packaging
Printing Papers
Packaging
Forest Products
Distribution(1) Includes $400 million in run rate synergiesEBITDA = Operating profit plus depreciation and amortization less special items
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Weyerhaeuser CBPR Acquisition Update
Filed for Hart-Scott-Rodino Act approval
Integration planning in progress
Preparing for transition services
Targeting to close during 3Q
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2Q08 OutlookChanges from 1Q08
Non-North AmericaNorth America
Uncertain
Better
Slight Increase
Slight Increase
Increase
Flat
Improving
BetterOperations
Volume
Pricing
FlatPackaging
ImprovingPaper
UncertainInput & Freight Costs
IncreaseMaintenance Outages
Slight Decrease
Flat
Paper
Packaging
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Questions & Answers
Investor Relations ContactsThomas A. Cleves 901-419-7566
Ann-Marie Donaldson 901-419-4967
Emily Nix 901-419-4987
Media ContactPatty Neuhoff 901-419-4052
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Appendix
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0.37.41
0.07
.05
.04
(.04)(.02) (.14)
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
4Q '07 Price Volume Cost/Mix Materials &Freight
Corporate /Other
Ilim 1Q '08
$ / Share
Papers .03Packaging .02
Cost (.01) Outages (.01)
Energy (.07) Chemicals (.04) Wood (.02) Freight (.01)
1Q08 vs. 4Q07 EPSLower Forest Products Earnings & Increasing Input Costs
.28
.04
.41
.69
Earnings from continuing operations before special items
Forest Products Earnings
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Printing Papers Earnings1Q08 vs. 4Q07
185
24315 (2) (14)
(55)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
4Q '07 Price Volume Cost / Mix Materials &Freight
Other 1Q '08
Mill
ion Cost (13)
Mix 4 Outages (5)
(2)
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97
109 28
9
(23)(8)
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130
4Q '07 Price Volume* Cost / Mix Materials& Freight
Other 1Q '08
Mill
ion
Industrial Packaging Earnings 1Q08 vs. 4Q07
Cost 15 Mix 3 Outages (16)
*Excludes trade volume
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$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
4Q '07 Price Volume Cost / Mix Materials &Freight
Other 1Q '08
Mill
ion
Consumer Packaging Earnings1Q08 vs. 4Q07
1
14*
4 (4)
(12)
1015
Outages 14 Cost (8) Mix (5)
*Excludes a special item of ($5) million related to the reorganization of Shorewood’s Canadian operations
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Global Sales Volumes1Q08 vs. 4Q07
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Printing Papers
Pulp Containerboard
CoatedPaperboard
Container xpedxRevenue
M To
ns
4Q07 1Q08
Δ (1%) (7%) 9% 0% (2%) (3%)
Containerboard includes the addition of Pensacola linerboard capacityxpedx includes the addition of Central Lewmar revenues
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(9)(15)
(25)
(41)($50)
($40)
($30)
($20)
($10)
$0
Energy Chemicals Fiber Freight
Mill
ion
North America Outside North America
Increasing Global Input & Freight Costs $90MM, or $0.14/Share Impact vs. 4Q07
Input costs for continuing businessesPercentage change reflects North American input costs
N.A. Δ 12% 11% 2% 4%
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.16
.30.34
.27
.20.17
.04
.12
.30
.47 .45
.52.57
.69
.41.45
.02
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
2004 2005 2006 2007
Diluted EPSfrom Continuing Operations before Special Items
A reconciliation to GAAP EPS is available at www.internationalpaper.com under the Investors tab at presentations
$0.82 $0.70 $1.33 $2.22FY
2008
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$0.31
($0.04)
$0.35
($0.06)
$0.41
1Q08
Net Earnings
Discontinued Operations
Earnings from Continuing Operations
Special Items
Earnings from Continuing Operations & Before Special Items
Diluted Earnings per Share
Special Items & Discontinued Operations
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Special Items & Discontinued Operations1Q08
Earnings per Share$ MillionSpecial Items (net of tax & minority interest)
($3)Shorewood Canadian Reorganization($25)Legal Reserves
$3Restructuring & Corporate($0.06)($25)Total Special Items
($1)Wood Products
($16)Beverage Packaging
($0.04)($17)Total Discontinued Operations
Earnings per Share$ MillionDiscontinued Operations (net of tax)
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30%
$206
$297
$1.1
$1.3
20071
32 - 33%
$140 - $160
$340 - $360
$1.1
$1.1
2008 Estimate3
29%
$276
$521
$1.2
$1.1
20061
Effective Tax Rate2
Corporate Items($ Million)
Net Interest Expense($ Million)
Depreciation & Amortization ($ Billion)
Capital Spending($ Billion)
1 Excludes discontinued operations and Coated Papers2 Before special items and excluding Ilim3 Not including Weyerhaeuser
Key Financial Statistics
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($60)
($10)
($26)
($24)
Impact($ Million)
Total Impact
Consumer Packaging
Industrial Packaging
Printing Papers
2Q08 Forecast vs. 1Q08 Actual
(85,000)
(5,000)
(55,000)
(25,000)
∆ in Maintenance Outages (Tons)
Maintenance outages and dollar impacts are estimated and are subject to change
Incremental Maintenance Outages
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$36
$9
$2
$25
3Q08E
$113
$11
$50
$52
2Q08E
$44
$17
$11
$16
4Q08E
Total Impact
Consumer Packaging
Industrial Packaging
Printing Papers
$ Millions
$53
$1
$24
$28
1Q08
Planned maintenance outages are subject to change
Planned Maintenance Outages
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$732
$206
$0
$13
$38
$86
$127
$262
2007
$0$0$0$0$0$8Other
$188
$56
$3
$10
$22
$31
$66
3Q07
$746
$276
$47
$31
$79
$122
$183
2006
$164
$37
$3
$9
$21
$30
$64
1Q07
$201
$56
$3
$11
$25
$35
$71
4Q07
$63$61Printing Papers
$179
$57
$4
$8
$18
$31
2Q07
$21Unallocated Corporate Items
$11Distribution
$2Forest Products
$148Total
$30Industrial Packaging
$21Consumer Packaging
1Q08$ Million
Corporate ItemsRevised Allocations for 2006 & 2007
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Operating Profits by Industry Segmentfrom Continuing Operations before Special Items
$198$439$606Earnings from continuing operations before income taxes, equity earnings & minority interest
$17$0$0Equity Earnings, net of taxes - Ilim
($21)($56)($37)Corporate Items
$296
$5($61)$403
$6$97$20$40$73
$1671Q07
($41)
$4($81)$337
$0$25$16$14$97
$1851Q08
$4Special Items
$0Other Businesses
$566Operating Profit
($79)Net Interest Expense
$4Minority Interest / Equity Earnings Adjustment
$171$28$15
$109$243
4Q07
Forest Products
Distribution
Consumer Packaging
Industrial Packaging
Printing Papers
$ Million
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Geographic Business Segment Operating Resultsfrom Continuing Operations before Special Items
Operating ProfitSales$ Million
$28$4$7$4
$0$19$90
$1$27$61$53
$101
4Q07
$20$1
$14$25
$1$15$57
$0$15$18$40$94
1Q07
$3$95$85$75Asian$16
$9$2
$0$18$79
$0$4
$33$42
$106
1Q08
$1,985
$75$600
$80$315
$1,050
$5$165$225$435$885
1Q08
$2,045
$75$620
$85$300
$1,005
$5$180$255$415$865
4Q07
$1,675
$70$570
$45$265$925
$5$155$140$355$885
1Q07
AsianIndustrial Packaging
North AmericanEuropean Asian
Distribution
EuropeanNorth American
Consumer Packaging
U.S. Market PulpBrazilianEuropeanNorth American
Printing Papers
Excludes Forest Products
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2008 Earnings from Continuing Operations
1 Assuming dilution 2 A reconciliation to GAAP EPS is available at www.internationalpaper.com under the Investors tab at presentations
$16
$0
$16
EquityEarnings
$0.35
($0.06)
$0.41
Diluted EPS2
42339%($25)$0$16($41)1Q08
Earnings from Continuing Operations
42330%$150($5)($59)$1981Q08
$175
Net Income
$MM
31.5%
Estimated Tax Rate
($5)
Minority Interest
$MM
Special Items
$239
Pre-Tax$MM
423($75)1Q08
Before Special Items
Average Shares1
MMTax$MM
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Business Segment Price Realization
$846
$554
1Q08
$646
$950
1Q08
$825
$536
4Q07
$621
$925
4Q07
$799
$511
1Q07
$577
$888
1Q07
Average Selling Price Realizations
Industrial Packaging ($/ton)
Printing Papers ($/ton)
Containerboard
Corrugated Boxes
Pulp
Uncoated Freesheet
Average IP U.S. selling price realizations (includes the impact of mix across all grades)
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0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Apr July Oct Jan Apr July Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
2005 2006 2007
NYMEX Natural Gas closing prices
Index: Jan 2005 Natural Gas Costs = 100
Natural Gas Costs
2008
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90
95
100
105
110
Jan Apr July Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
U.S. Mill Wood Costs
Index: Jan 2005 Wood Costs = 100
2005 2006 2007 2008
Delivered cost to U.S. facilities
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75
100
125
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
2005 2006 2007 2008
Index: Jan 2005 Caustic Soda Costs = 100
Delivered cost to U.S. facilities
U.S. Caustic Soda Costs
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40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
2006 2007
Index: Jan 2006 Corn Starch Costs = 100
Delivered cost to U.S. facilities
U.S. Corn Starch Costs
2008
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110,000350,000Corn Starch (Tons)
Chemicals
Fiber
Energy
50,000240,000Sodium Chlorate (Tons)
-40,000LD Polyethylene (Tons)
4,00024,000Latex (Tons)
230,0001,300,000Coal (Tons)
8,200,00043,000,000Wood (Tons)
60,000300,000Caustic Soda (Tons)
310,000600,000Old Corrugated Containers (Tons)
Commodity
500,000
15,000,000
Non – U. S.
3,000,000#6 Fuel Oil (Barrels)
28,000,000Natural Gas (MM BTUs)
U. S.
Global ConsumptionAnnual Purchase Estimates for Key Inputs
Includes only continuing businesses; does not include Asian consumption