Investors in the global seafood industry – implications ...and,events/... · Investors in the...
Transcript of Investors in the global seafood industry – implications ...and,events/... · Investors in the...
Investors in the global seafood industry – implications and trends
Irish Seafood Summit:
Picture: courtesy of Unima
Gorjan Nikolik, Food and Agribusiness Research, Rabobank International
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Rabobank in the seafood industry
Rabobank has c.60 corporate level relationships in the global seafood industry and a large number of smaller “rural” sector clients
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Lets start with a framework: seafood is global sector made up of niche sub-segments
Crustaceans and Molluscs / bivalves
Small pelagic
Tuna
Salmonids
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2
3
4
5
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7 Aqua feed
Source: Rabobank 2012
White fish
VAP
Seafood is the most fragmented and least commoditized protein, where bigger is not always better, but rarity and uniqueness are appreciated
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Risk capital origins and flows in the seafood industry are from a number of different sourcesRisk capital is one of the key drivers of any industry and is especially relevant in the global marine proteins sector
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Public Equity in seafood: opportunity or necessity?
Europe
(Mostly Norwegian
salmon farmers)
Americas
(Mostly Chilean)
Asia
(Japanese, Chinese, Thai, South Korean
and Vietnamese)
There are currently more than 100 listed seafood companies (>35bln mrk cap) with the majority active in aquaculture
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Aquaculture and wild catch are the most “asset heavy” protein subsectors
ROCE based on average EBITDA and asset turnover, 2005-2010
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Examples of PE investments
Investments largely focused on processing and brands close to the key markets Expected stable returns due to market power of brands and diversification
But it was not all according to plan…… Some had profitable investments – but in the period 2009-2012 many had
underperforming seafood investments
Macroeconomic downturns, raw material costs, private label expansion are all reasons
Private Equity seafood model has been focused on processing and brands In the last decade PE have invested billions in the seafood sector
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Some examples of PE investments where primary production plays a more important role
BUT Primary production (aquaculture and fisheries) are not ideal sectors for PE Large capital need tied up in biological assets or fishing rights Little visibility of value at exit: Biological risk, TAC changes Cash flow volatility: Cyclicality, biological risk No synergies with current management skills of most PE companies No proven economies of scale and benefits from add-ons
How to deal with this miss mach – there is no real answer to this yet One option: Combine a few smaller primary production businesses with a larger more
stable seafood processor
Thematic funds are becoming more common
….. So Private Equity is seeking for a new seafood industry modelThe new approach is to find a way to become exposed to more primary production
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Venture Capital are seeking diversification: new industries, new regions
VC are at home in the high tech sectors They like high growth, low asset size
companies
BUT ever since the internet bubble VCs seek diversification, “The protein challenge” is an attractive
dynamic in need of innovative solutions
Here too thematic funds are emerging VC’s create thematic funds to leverage on a
knowledge base
As well as partnerships They seek partners with other specialized
investors (e.g. Rabobank)
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There are many more ideas than investors in the aquaculture space
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Capital flows within the seafood industry: from more mature sectors to less mature
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Time for salmon farmers to diversify, but where to?
Salmon price (right axis) and salmon global production volumes (left axis)
Salm
on p
rice
NO
K /
kg
The new “up cycle”” may be longer than in the past and it will have a positive influence on the cash flows and balance sheet of the producers
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Many wild-catch companies face a good price outlook but have no organic growth options
Fish meal and fish oil prices (USD/MT)
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The dilemma of the Western seafood processing sector (1)How can western processors ensure not to be out competed for rawmaterial
2010 2020
Vertically integrated
Processors in EU, US and Japan
Vertically integrated
Processors in EU, US and Japan
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How will the processors continue to add value and stay relevant in view of consolidation of producers
2010 2020Complex and fragmented seafood industry
Consolidation among primary producers
The dilemma of the Western seafood processing sector (2)
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In response a few key strategic directions are being perused in the processing sector
Regional focus
Have a broad portfolio of products
Consolidate similar companies adding product groups, regions and brands
Evolve into value added food groups?
Species focus
Acquire peers in different regions
Could eventually become part of vertically integrated groups?
Processors in general terms can develop a regional focus or a species / product strategy
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Other industries: Retailers, Conglomerates and Animal Protein producers
??
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In Asia vertical integrators dominate the animal protein production and many have become active in aquaculture and seafood processing
Only Asian animal protein companies invest in seafood (particularly aquaculture)
TradingFeed manufacturing
Fish & shrimpprocessing
Juveniles
Fish meal and othercommodities Fish and shrimp farming
Fish byproducts as input for feed
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Seafood will be in demand long after meat demand is satisfied in China
Relative share of food expenditure, meat (left axis); seafood (right)
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Retailers and large food service groups as investors in the seafood industry?Not a trend so far, rather isolated cases. Still worth understanding the motivation
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Clearly there are many different investors in the marine protein industry Could be a large salmon farmer Or a global fleet operator Or a diversifying processor Asian conglomerate Or a PE investor......................
There are implications with each one different competences different impact on the value generated in each part of the value
chain And all need to be addressed and enticed in a different way The more investors are present the higher the value of the target
assets
Ireland is well positioned There are options, global and local Primary production assets are rapidly appreciating in value –
this is the key strength of Ireland Probably the best result can be archived if these investors are
engaged actively and with a plan – otherwise the sector will either underperform or find a way it self
Current dynamics in the global seafood industry are favourable for Ireland.
Where risk capital will come from poses questions and implications
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Thank you for your attention
“The financial link in the global food chain”™