Investor presentation - Scatec

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May 2021 Investor presentation

Transcript of Investor presentation - Scatec

May 2021

Investor presentation

The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a relevant person should not rely, act or make assessment on the basis of this presentation or anything included therein.

The following presentation may include information related to investments made and key commercial terms thereof, including future returns. Such information cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Scatec ASA or any company within the Scatec Group. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Scatec Group’s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives as well as forward looking statements and any such information or forward-looking statements regarding the future and/or the Scatec Group’s expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.

The following presentation contains unaudited pro forma financial information which has been prepared solely for illustrative purposes to show how the acquisition of SN Power might have affected the financials of the group if the acquisition had occurred at an earlier date. All pro forma financials in this presentation are unaudited.

Alternative performance measures (APM) used in this presentation are described and presented in the fourth quarter report of the group for 2020.

Disclaimer

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Contents1. Introduction

2. The market and our pipeline

3. Our business model

4. Financials

5. Outlook and guidance

• Acquisition of SN Power completed – hydro assets contributing with strong growth

• Power production of 854 (349) GWh and Group EBITDA¹ of NOK 636 (346) million

• Power Production cash flow to equity of NOK 681² (105) million

• Started construction of 150 MW in Pakistan

• 2025 growth target: 15 GW installed - capex of NOK 100 billion

Q1’21 Strong growth and solid cash flow

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1) EBITDA and other alternative performance measures (APMs) are defined and reconciled as a part of the APM section of the first quarter report on pages 37-40.

2) including refinancing proceeds of NOK 397 million

Power production (GWh)

349

854

Q1 2020 Q1 2021

2.4x

A broad and growing asset portfolio

Latin America

Africa & Middle East

Rest of Asia

1,450 MW

1,175 MW

506 MW

383 MW

Scatec in brief

Develop, build, own and operate renewable energy

3.5 GW in operation and under construction

More than 500 employees in 23 countries

Europe & Central Asia

2,053 MW

1,422 MW

39 MW

5

We continue to lead and are broadening our growth strategy

Build a global leader across solar, hydro, wind and storage

Focus on new and existing high growth markets

and a broader offering

Continue to adapt our business model to a

changing market

02

The market and our project pipeline

The world can be powered by renewables in 2050

60%increase in global electricity demand

75%demand covered by

renewables

Fossil from 64%to 20% market

share

Solar, wind, hydro& storage share ofenergy mix from 36% to 73%

USD 500 billionAnnual renewables

investments

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2020

8

7%

15%

1%2%

7%

20%

38%

8%2%

20,391 GW2050

9

2019

14,885 GW

2050

2,723 GW

+447%Storage

Solar

WindHydro

Global installed capacity mix, 2019 and 2050

Solar, hydro, wind & storage covering 73% of installed capacity in 2050

28 %

23 %

4 %5 %

15 %

8 %

11 %

2 % 4 %

7,566 GW2019

Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Storage Other

Source: Bloomberg NEF

4.5 GW by end 2021 and 15 GW by end 2025

10

GW – In operation and under construction – 100% basis

Growth

1.4

Current

4.5

1.4

End 2021

9.1

Growth End 2025

3.5

5.9

15

2.4

2.1

2021Delivery of large solar projects in India, Brazil, Tunisia, South Africa & Pakistan

2025Continued growth in pipeline and conversion of projects across key regions and technologies

SN Power

Mature projects expected to start construction in 2021

Pakistan, 150 MW• Financial Close in Q1• 75% leverage• 75% equity stake• Construction started

in April

Tunisia*, 360 MW• Backlog• Tariff awarded• 75% leverage• 50-60% target equity

stake

* Tozeur and Sidi Bouzid, 60 MWp each and Tataouine, 240 MWp** RMIPP: Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement Program. REIPPP: Renewables IPP Procurement Program11

South Africa, 600 MW• Pipeline• Bid into RMIPP**• 80% leverage• 51% equity stake

India, 900 MW• Pipeline• Tariff awarded• 75% leverage• 50% equity stake• No EPC

Brazil, 530 MW• Pipeline• Equinor and Hydro

partners• Negotiating off-take• 70% leverage• 33% equity stake

Brazil, 101 MW• Backlog• Blended off-take• Kroma and Equinor

partners• 60% leverage• 40% equity stake

• Lease agreement with Torex Gold for a 8.5 MW solar plant for two projects in Mexico

• Initial contract of 10 years

• The plant can be expanded at any time, including adding battery storage

• Estimated completion in fourth quarter 2021

Milestone for Release8.5 MW flexible lease agreement

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42 %

15 %

17 %

3 %

23 %

Solar Hybrid solutionsWind ReleaseHydro

Latin America

Africa &Middle East

Southeast Asia

Europe & Central/South Asia

Project backlog & pipeline of almost 12 GW

All figures are as of Q1 2021 reporting date.

1,426MW

5,106MW

3,812MW

1,395MW

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Pipeline

Hydro project development focus:• Brownfield projects with upgrade potential• Greenfield with regulation capability• Hybridisation

Building on key strengths:• Hydropower competence

• Project development• Hydropower engineering and construction• Structuring and financing• Market operations

• Strong ESG focus and high HSSE standards• Applying Scatec’s integrated business model

Hydropower development– Building on key strengths from SN Power and Scatec

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Project opportunity in Africa:Existing hydro portfolio of 260 MW

Opportunity to add 220 MW:Upgrade plant, add hydro capacity, and

add floating solar on reservoir

03

Our business model

Our value chain

Site development & permitting

System design

Business case development

PPA negotiation

Project development Financing OperationsConstruction

Debt/Equity structuring

Due diligence

Engineering and procurement

Construction management

Maximise performance and availability

Maintenance and repair

Asset management

Financial optimisation

Ownership (IPP)

Our success is based on our business model & strong entrepreneurial culture

PredictableWorking together

Driving resultsChangemakers

Business model People

Integrated – capturing full project value

Structuring & financingFinancial discipline

Partnerships

Agile & leanEntrepreneurial culture

Passionate & empowered peopleStrong and diversified talent pool

Strong partnership with project-equity and debt providers

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Share of funding from multilateral development banks

~50%

Raised project level financing of NOK 20 billion• Experienced project equity partners - often DFIs• Non-recourse project level debt of 60-80%• Quality projects with good ESG profile in high demand

Opportunistic re-financing • Highly dependent on project structure and market • Hydro assets in the Philippines refinanced and released

NOK 408 million to Scatec in Q1 2021• Refinancing continues to be explored across portfolio

Our business model and typical project structureIllustration of company structure and main contracts

ScatecO&M / EPC

Single Purpose Vehicle

State owned utility

Project financing

Scatec Equity co-investors

State government

PPA agreement

Land ownersShareholders’ agreement

World Bank/others

100% 39%-100%

Component Suppliers

Sub-Contractors

EPC contract O&M contractAsset Management contract

Loan agreements

Sovereign guaranteeConcession agreement

Land lease agreements

Political risk insurance (when relevant)

A leading position in ESG

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• Experience from navigating complex markets

• Identifies ESG project risks early with dedicated teams on the ground

• A net positive carbon footprint – and set targets for reductions in direct emissions

• Comprehensive ESG reporting and close monitoring of regulations (e.g. EU Taxonomy)

Rating summary: Low risk#1 of 450 – Utilities#1 of 48 – Renewable powerproducers

Rating: A- (excellent)Status: PrimePrime threshold: C+

Rating: AAA (top rating)Highest scoring range relative to global peers

Rating: A Carbon Disclosure ProjectTop score

32 ESG targets for 2021

ESG ambitions

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Key focus areas

Human rightsStrengthen due diligence and training to exposed groups

Responsible supply chainESG risk and close engagement with key suppliers

Lifecycle management Strategy for lifecycle management of equipment

Climate target Climate roadmap to reach 2050 targets

ESG is integrated in Scatec’s operating model

A competitive advantage

• Attracts projects and business partners

• Reduces risks and strengthens probability of successful completion of projects

• Becoming imperative to qualify for and win new projects

How we work with ESG

• ESG is an integrated part of our business

• Dedicated E&S resources for long term approach and impact

• Solid Environmental and Social Management System covering all projects

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Stakeholder engagement, grievance mechanism & local developmentHealth & Safety

Opportunity Project Development Financing Delivery Power

Production

Environmental, Social & Governance aspects are integrated in our operating model

Investmentdecision

Responsible procurement

Calculate emissions

End of lifemanagement

Risk assessment & monitoringEnvironmental & social impacts

All Scatec projects must adhere to the IFC PS and Equator Principles

Defines IFC clients’ responsibilities for managing theirenvironmental and social risks

Risk management framework for determining, assessingand managingenvironmental and socialrisk in projects

Standards for responsible business conduct for issues suchas human rights, labourrights and theenvironment

Climate reporting and targets: Closer engagement with key suppliers

Climate targetin line with the Paris Agreement and 1.5°C scenario

Scope 1 and 2: • More than 50%

reduction by 2030• Net zero by 2050*

Scope 3: • Target to be set

2020 GHG emissions:

Scope 1 and 2: 6,442 tons

Diesel generators

Transformer stations

Vehicles Purchased ElectricityPurchasedHeating/Cooling

Scope 3: 1,368 tons

Estimated payback time for a 50 MW solar project: 1.5 years

Upstream transportation and distribution

Employee commuting

Purchased goods and services End of life

Business travel

*Base year is 201925

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Financials

Strong growth in revenues and EBITDA

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Proportionate financials

40% 63% 28% 53%

EBITDA Revenues

EBITDA margin

Quarterly (NOK million) Last 12 months (NOK million)

107

571

346

636

866

Q1 20 Q1 21

1,010

730 789

5,679

Q1 20

1,602

Q1 21

1,595

2,989

Cash Flow to Equity

Growth in Power Production partly offset by D&C

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Proportionate financials

NOK millionRevenues Q1’21 Q1’20 FY2020

Power Production 924 391 1,708Services 56 52 232Development & Construction 24 414 873Corporate 6 8 33Total 1,010 866 2,844

EBITDAPower Production 704 331 1,404Services 17 16 82Development & Construction -60 15 -28Corporate -25 -16 -153Total 636 346 1,306

Comments• Strong growth in Power Production

after SN Power acquisition• Growth despite currency headwinds• Stable performance in Services• D&C revenues down with low

construction activity and opexincreased with development of large project pipeline

• Corporate cost increased moderately with the inclusion of SN Power

Quarterly (NOK million) Last 12 months (NOK million)

Power ProductionStrong increase in power production

84% 76% 84% 79%

EBITDA Revenues

EBITDAmargin

29

105

681

331

704

391

924

Q1 20 Q1 21

409

1,777

1,143

Q1 21Q1 20

1,357

1,003

2,241

Comments• New hydro assets adding NOK 367

million of EBITDA from last year• Strong performance on the

Philippines, EBITDA of NOK 243 million - up NOK 117 million from last year

• Solar assets with stable EBITDA generation year on year

• Debt refinancing on the Philippines released cash of NOK 397 million to Scatec

CF to equity

Power ProductionA well diversified power plant portfolio

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2020 Pro forma Power Production:

(*) Perpetual concession for the hydro assets on the Philippines.

15%

11%

10%

29%

11%

7%

Honduras

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Brazil

South Africa

Jordan

Malaysia

Egypt

Philippines

Uganda

LaosRwanda Mozambique

Cash flow to Equity NOK 1,067 million

Remaining contract duration*

18+ yrs

EBITDA:NOK 2,706 million

Pro forma 2020 EBITDA distribution:

Quarterly (NOK million) Last 12 months (NOK million)

ServicesStable financial performance

31% 30% 38% 35%

EBITDA Revenues

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EBITDAmargin

13 1416 17

5256

Q1 20 Q1 21

60 6673

83

191

235

Q1 21Q1 20

CF to equity

Quarterly (NOK million) Last 12 months (NOK million)

Development & ConstructionIncreased project development efforts

Gross margin

EBITDA margin

11% 1% 14% 13%

4% NA 11% NA

EBITDA Revenues

32

13

-51

15

-60

414

24

Q1 20 Q1 21

356

-50

445

-102

483

Q1 21Q1 20

4,097CF to equity

Bridging proportionate to consolidated P&L

33

Prop-ortionate

Residual Ownership

fully consolidated

entities

Elimination of equity

consolidated entities

Other Eliminations Consolidated

External revenues 925 279 -511 - 693 Internal revenues 85 6 -3 -88 -Net income from JV and associates - - 138 - 138 Total revenues and other income 1,010 284 -376 -87 831 Cost of sales -103 - 79 23 -

Gross profit 907 284 -295 -64 831 Personnel expenses -99 -2 12 7 -82 Other operating expenses -172 -50 43 60 -118 EBITDA 636 232 -240 3 631 Depreciation and impairment -230 -78 77 44 -187 EBIT 406 153 -162 47 444

Proportionate • Financials across operating segments – based

on Scatec’s ownership in power plants

Residual ownership• Adding financials of non-controlling interest for

fully consolidated power plants (solar & wind)

Elimination of equity consolidated entities• Deducting revenues, EBITDA and EBIT for equity

consolidated entities – and adding net income from the same

• Net income from hydro, in IFRS consolidated financials, is reported from 29 January 2021 -control transferred under IFRS

Other eliminations• Eliminating internal gross profit in D&C and

internal revenues and related opex in Services and Corporate segments

• Eliminating depreciation charges from historic internal gains – mostly related to D&C

A solid financial position

• Group free cash of NOK 2,918 million• Investments in JVs and associated companies of NOK 9,750

million, increased from NOK 612 million in 2020• Group* book equity of NOK 11,190 million

Consolidated financial position (NOK million)

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(*) Defined as ‘recourse group’ in the corporate bond and loan agreements, where restricted cash is excluded.

34

6,369

33,553

27,184

9,637

Assets

4,156

19,760

Equity & Liabilities

33,553

Non-current liabilitiesCurrent assetsNon-current assets

EquityCurrent liabilities

Equity & Liabilities

9,074

17,59013,701

26,663

Assets

3,495

9,467

26,663

As of 31.12.2020 As of 31.03.2021

(NOK million) Consolidated Project

levelGroup level*

Total prop.

Cash 4,783 1,698 2,918 4,616

Debt -19,527 -11,277 -7,114 -18,392

Net debt -14,744 -9,580 -4,196 -13,776

723

14 491

Cash flow to equity Services

5,949

End Q1 21End Q4 20 Cash in acquired entities

-3,558-51

-359

-199

Distributions from operating power plants

Working Capital/other

Cash flow to equity D&C

2,918

-72

Project equityCash flow to equity Corporate

Net cash consideration

from acquistion of

SN Power

Project Development

capex

-20

NOK million

Movement of cash in ‘recourse group’ as defined in the corporate bond and loan agreements.

Q1’21 movement of the Group’s free cash

35

Staying selective when investing

36

• Power Production: Avg. Equity IRR on investments: 12-16%• 30-year cash flows • Average across technologies, regions & currencies

• Development & Construction gross margin: 10-12%• D&C revenues expected to average 50-70% of project

capex dependent on Scatec’s role in the project

• Focus on capital discipline

Target of 15 GW by end 2025 representing NOK 100 billion of capex

100

Capex

60-70

Project finance debt

Partner equity

15-20

Scatec equity

15-20

60-70% leverage based on long term contracts

Scatec Equity Available liquidity

Other

10-12

1-4

Cash flow

4.5

15-20

Cash Flow to Equity across all segments net of shareholder dividends

Cash & credit lines

50-60% Scatec ownership in new assets

Capital structure for 12 GW new capacity towards 2025NOK billion

Scatec Equity funded by cash & operating cash flowNOK billion

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Scatec - 2021 Guidance

3838

Power Production (GWh)Proportionate production volume*

Development &Construction

FY2021 Corporate

Q2 2021:815-865

Up from 406 in Q2 2020

End of Q1’21: Remaining, not booked, construction contract value NOK 513 million

EBITDA NOK -110 million

(*) Guidance based on production from plants in operations at the end of first quarter 2021.

FY 2021:3,500 - 3,700

Up from 3,045 in 2020

FY2021 Services

Revenues NOK 280 million

EBITDA margin: 30-35%

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Summary

Building a global leader in renewable energy

Global top-tier developer/IPP

Where we are now

A global multi-technology renewables developer/IPP

Where we are going

Regional solar developer/IPP Where we come from

Solar Solar Solar

Hydro Hydro

Wind Wind

Storage Storage

A NOK 100 billion business plan towards 2025- Building on our key strengths

41(*) In operation or under construction..

15 GW capacity* by end of 2025

Renewables in high growth markets

A proven business model

Agile organisation with a growth track record

Leading in ESGFinancial discipline and solid cash flow

Strong partnerships

Our asset portfolio

Capacity EconomicMW interest

Sukkur, Pakistan 150 75%Progressovka, Ukraine 148 100%Guanizuil IIA, Argentina 117 50%Chigirin, Ukraine 55 100%Torex Gold, Mexico 9 100%Total 479 78%

Capacity EconomicMW interest

Tunisia 360 55%Brazil 101 40%Ukraine 65 65%Bangladesh 62 65%Mali 33 64%Lesotho 20 48%Total 641 55%

Under construction

Project backlog

Capacity Share in %MW

Solar 4,686 42%Hydro 2,516 23%Wind 1,871 17%Hybrid solutions 1,726 15%Release 300 3%Total 11,098 100%

Project pipeline

Capacity EconomicMW interest

Theun Hinboun, Laos 525 20%Magat, Philippines 388 50%Benban, Egypt 380 51%Upington, South Africa 258 46%Bujagali, Uganda 255 28%Quantum Solar Park, Malaysia 197 100%Apodi, Brazil 162 44%Binga, Philippines 140 50%Ambuklao, Philippines 105 50%Kalkbult, South Africa 75 45%Dreunberg, South Africa 75 45%Agua Fria, Honduras 60 40%Boguslav, Ukraine 54 100%Rengy, Ukraine 47 51%Redsol, Malaysia 47 100%Jordan, Jordan 43 62%Linde, South Africa 40 45%Mocuba, Mozambique 40 53%Dam Nai, Vietnam 39 100%Los Prados, Honduras 35 70%Kamianka, Ukraine 32 61%Czech, Czech Republic 20 100%Maris Hydro, Philippines 9 50%Asyv, Rwanda 9 54%Total 3,035 48%

Plants in operation