Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 10/29/2020 · Investor Presentation November 10, 2020....
Transcript of Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 10/29/2020 · Investor Presentation November 10, 2020....
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Investor PresentationNovember 10, 2020
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Forward-Looking Statements Advisory 2
Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.
Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: expected 2020 adjusted EBITDA and Retail adjusted EBITDA and margin estimates; estimated adjusted EBITDA fertilizer price sensitivity, capital spending expectations for 2020; expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2020 and beyond; our operating segment market outlooks and market conditions for 2020 and beyond, and the anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and export volumes. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.
All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of our already completed and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by us, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2020 and in the future; our expectations regarding the impacts, direct and indirect, of COVID-19 on our business, customers, business partners, employees, supply chain, other stakeholders and the overall economy; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; and the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.
Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and cybersecurity risks related to our systems, including our costs of addressing or mitigating such risks; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting effects on business and economic conditions; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports, including our 2019 annual report dated February 19, 2020, our annual information form dated February 19, 2020 for the year ended December 31, 2019 and our third quarter 2020 interim report dated November 2, 2020, filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.
The purpose of our expected 2020 adjusted EBITDA and Retail adjusted EBITDA estimates and the estimated adjusted EBITDA fertilizer price sensitivity are to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
The forward-looking statements in this document are made as of the date hereof and Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable Canadian securities legislation or applicable US federal securities laws.
Non-IFRS Financial Measures AdvisoryThis document contains certain non-IFRS measures including adjusted EBITDA guidance and the combined historical results of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. for the year ended December 31, 2017. We consider non-IFRS financial measures to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Appendix B – Non-IFRS Financial Measures” included in our annual report dated February 19, 2020 and in our third quarter 2020 interim report dated November 2, 2020, each as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile. We do not provide a reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EBITDA guidance to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS due to unknown variables and the uncertainty related to future results. These unknown variables may include unpredictable transactions of significant value that may be inherently difficult to determine, without unreasonable efforts. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.
November 10, 2020
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3
Stability and
GrowthRetail Ag Solutions provides earnings
stability & exposure to multiple growth
platforms
Stable and Growing
ReturnsTop tier, attractive & secure dividend
Nutrient
UpsideFertilizer markets are expected to recover
providing significant earnings upside
potential
Strong Financial
PositionNutrien has a solid balance sheet
with ample liquidity
Nutrien’s
Key
Message
November 10, 2020
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Retail Business Continues to Deliver Growth and is Becoming Increasingly Diversified
Retail Adjusted EBITDAUS Billions
Source: Nutrien
4
Industrial
November 10, 2020
Non-US Retail
US Retail
~30%
~20%
20101
$0.5
2020F220151
$1.0
$1.37-$1.42 • Delivering earnings growth
through the cycle, from organic
growth (incl. investments in
technology, private label) &
accretive acquisitions
• Non-US Retail now accounts for
~30% of total Retail earnings
• Australian 2019 Adjusted
EBITDA margins at ~9%. More
than double 2014 levels &
Ruralco margins
8%
7.5%
margins
8.5%
margins
1. 2010 & 2015 Retail EBITDA and Retail Adjusted EBITDA margin for Agrium Inc..
2. Based on Retail Adjusted EBITDA guidance as provided in our news release November 2, 2020.
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Retail Differentiation on Multiple Fronts Will Help to Unlock Organic Growth and Value Creation
5
November 10, 2020
Leading Online
Platform43%
Total Share of Digital Sales of
Available Product Lines
Q3’20 YTD1,2
>$1.0BTotal Digital Platform Sales
Q3’20 YTD2
Adjusted EBITDA
Growth and
Performance
$1.1BAdjusted EBITDA
Q3’20 YTD
10.4%US Retail
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Q3’20 LTM
1. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of North American Retail sales that are available for purchase online.
2. Represents North America results.
3. Post close of the Tec Agro acquisition.
Brazil Growth
Strategy3~$500M
Expected Annual Normalized
Run-Rate Revenue
>10%Expected EBITDA
Margins
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Crop Prices Have Improved from Summer Lows
November 10, 2020
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Source: Bloomberg
$3.64$3.34
$4.06
May
’20
Prev.
3 Yr
Avg.
Nov
’20
+22%
$0.70
$0.58
$0.70
Prev.
3 Yr
Avg.
May
’20
Nov
’20
+21%
R$63
R$96
R$171
Prev.
3 Yr
Avg.
May
’20
Nov
’20
+78%
RM 2,403
RM 3,440
Prev.
3 Yr
Avg.
May
’20
Nov
’20
RM 2,165
+59%
$4.83$5.24
$5.98
May
’20
Prev.
3 Yr
Avg.
Nov
’20
+14%
$9.20$8.50
$11.02
Nov
’20
Prev.
3 Yr
Avg.
May
’20
+30%
US Corn(US$/bushel)
US Soybean(US$/bushel)
US Wheat(US$/bushel)
US Cotton
(US$/lb)Palm Oil
(MYR/tonne)
Brazil Soybean(Real/60kg bag)
Prices as of mid-day November 9, 2020. CME futures prices for corn, wheat, cotton (Dec), soybeans (Nov), and spot prices for palm oil and Brazil soybeans. Previous 3-year
average from October – end of contract.
Bullish S&D forecasts & strong Chinese demand have driven crop prices higher
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Fertilizer Price Fundamentals in 2H20 Showing Signs of Recovery With Multiple Catalysts Emerging
Source: CRU
November 10, 2020
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Several positive fertilizer
developments are emerging:
• Favorable US growing conditions this
summer have led to an early harvest
season, which should be supportive for
fall fertilizer application rates
• Strong demand out of India has provided
stability for urea prices
• US phosphate prices have increased in
2H20 due to strong demand out of Brazil
and the impact from Mosaic’s
countervailing duties petition
• The majority of new potash capacity is
now online and being absorbed in the
market. No significant new nameplate
capacity expected in the near term.
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Nov-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jul-
18
Sep-1
8
Nov-1
8
Jan
-19
Ma
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jul-
19
Sep-1
9
Nov-1
9
Jan
-20
Ma
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jul-
20
Sep-2
0
NOLA Urea (USD/st) US DAP (USD/st)
Brazil Potash (USD/mt)
Fertilizer Prices
Prices are monthly averages.
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10.9-11.13
2019 2020 2021
Nutrien Expects to Benefit From A Cyclical Recovery in Market Prices and Higher Sales Volumes
8
2020 Global Urea Production Cost CurveUS$/tonne
November 10, 2020
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Nutrien
Operational Capability (Mmt)
20
250
100
300
1206040
150
80 1800 160
0
350
50
140100
200
1. Reported spot prices as of October 29, 2020.
2. Refers to manufactured product only (excludes ESN® and Rainbow products).
3. Based on Nitrogen sales volume guidance as provided in our news release November 2, 2020.
4. Additional operational capacity completed in 2020 & 2021.
US Nola FOB ($/mt)1
NTR Nitrogen Sales Volumes2
Million Tonnes
10.3
Offshore
2020F Range
N.A.
Expect ~350Kmt
of additional
operational
capacity by end of
20214
At current pricing levels, a sizeable portion of global production is at negative margins; Nutrien
expects to benefit from its investment in new capacity
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Strong free cash flow generation supports a stable & growing dividend, which at a current yield
of 4.7%1 provides a stable rate of return while shareholders wait for price recovery
Strong Annual Free Cash Flow And Stable & Growing Dividend
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November 10, 2020
Source: Nutrien
Dividends PaidUS$/Share
2020 Capital Allocation2
US$ Billions
“A robust buffer exists to
support our dividend
payment, even at the bottom
of the Ag cycle”
2020F Adj.
EBITDA2Sustaining
Capex2Dividends3 Remaining
Capital4Interest and
Taxes2
0.9
2020F Range3.7
3.5
$0.45
Apr’18 - Oct’18
$0.43
Jan’19 - Jul’19 Oct’19 - Nov’20
$0.40
Horizontal axis represents
the length of time at each dividend level
1. Dividend yield calculated as dividend per share ($1.80/sh annualized) divided by the closing share price on the NYSE as at November 4, 2020.
2. Based on internal forecasts aligned with annual guidance provided in our news release dated November 2, 2020. Interest and taxes are disclosed on a cash basis.
3. Based on 569M shares outstanding multiplied by an annualized dividend per share of $1.80.
4. Assumes the mid-point of 2020F Adjusted EBITDA guidance as provided in our news release dated November 2, 2020.
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Nutrien Providing Sector-Leading Returns of Capital
Share Repurchases and Dividends as a % of Market Cap3
(Percent)
BG
8.5
ADM
8.1
SDF
6.7
AGCO
4.9
CTVA YAR
30.3
ICLMOS
11.0
FMC INGR
9.6
24.3
NutrienDE CF
2.4
9.6
12.412.3
32.7NTR
Peers
Segment size represents percentage of returns made to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases paid
as reported from January 1, 2018 to November 4, 2020
Source: CapitalIQ
NTR returned $6.6B1 to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases and
possesses one of the highest dividend yields among its peers at 4.7%2
1. Dividend and share repurchases paid as reported from January 1, 2018 to November 4, 2020
2. Dividend yield calculated as dividend per share ($1.80/sh annualized) divided by the closing share price on the NYSE as at November 4, 2020.
3. Represents cash paid from share repurchases and dividends per the cash flow statement as reported from January 1, 2018 to November 4, 2020 divided by the
respective market capitalization as of November 4, 2020.
November 10, 2020
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Investing at The Bottom: Positioned to Capitalize on A Fertilizer Price Rebound
November 10, 2020
11
Nutrien’s wholesale business has significant leverage to fertilizer prices, which is expected to
provide a catalyst for earnings growth as prices rebound from bottom of the cycle levels
✓Commodity prices have recovered ~20% from their March 2020 lows1
✓Many potash and nitrogen producers are experiencing negative margins at current prices
✓Fertilizer prices have recently started to climb out of the historically low levels seen in 1H20
Price Drivers and Earnings Sensitivity
+$650MEstimated annualized impact
to Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA from
a $25/mt increase in fertilizer
prices
Sources: Bloomberg, Nutrien
1. Bloomberg commodity index price comparison between Mar 18, 2020 to Nov 4, 2020.
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Nutrien’s Sustainability Strategy
“Our integrated
sustainability
strategy is
addressing our most
material ESG risks
and providing
solutions for a
growing world.”
Nutrien President and CEO,
Chuck Magro
November 10, 2020
12
Source: Nutrien
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Appendix
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14
LEGEND:
RETAIL
POTASH
NITROGEN
PHOSPHATE
ESN®
OFFICES
North and South America
GRANULATION
LOVELAND PRODUCTS
AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES
AGRICHEM
TEC AGRO
INVESTMENTS AND JV’S
Source: Nutrien
Australia
Nutrien has a unique global footprint and well positioned assets
Leading Global Integrated Ag Solutions Provider
1. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of North American Retail sales that are available for purchase online.
>500,000Grower accounts worldwide
43% Digitally enabled Retail
sales Q3’20 YTD1
10.2 MmtPotash sales volumes
Q3’20 YTD
~6.0 MmtAvailable Potash Capacity
>3,400Agronomists serving
growers around the world
November 10, 2020
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Strong Grower Cash Margins 15
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
-150
100
350
600
850
1,100
1,350
1,600
1,850
2,100
Key Crop Grower Cash MarginsLocal Currency Margin/Acre
US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton CDN Canola Brazil Soybean
November 10, 2020
Source: Bloomberg, USDA, IMEA, CONAB, CRU, Nutrien
Grower margin supported strong crop prices & affordable crop input prices
-
Early Harvest Supportive of Fall Applications 16
Corn Harvest Progress% of US Total
Soybean Harvest Progress% of US Total
November 10, 2020
US corn and soybean harvest progress is ahead of normal, allowing growers to begin fall
applications significantly earlier than in the past two years
Source: USDA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep14
Sep21
Sep28
Oct5
Oct12
Oct19
Oct26
Nov2
Nov9
Nov16
Nov23
Nov30
2020 2019 Previous 5yr Avg
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep14
Sep21
Sep28
Oct5
Oct12
Oct19
Oct26
Nov2
Nov9
Nov16
Nov23
Nov30
2020 2019 Previous 5yr Avg
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Brazil: Strong Grower Economics 17
Brazilian Harvested AcreageMillions of Hectares
Soybean planting is slower than normal but has begun to catch up.
Record prices and margins are expected to drive a ~5% increase in harvested acreage.
November 10, 2020
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, CONAB, Nutrien
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020F
Corn Soybeans
Mato Grosso Soybean Planting ProgressPercentage Complete
3.4%
CAGR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sep 1
8
Sep 2
5
Oct
2
Oct
9
Oct
16
Oct
23
Oct
30
No
v 6
Nov 1
3
Nov 2
0
Nov 2
7
De
c 4
Dec 1
1
Dec 1
8
Dec 2
5
2020/21 2019/20 Prior 5yr Average
-
18
Australia Winter Crop ProductionMillion Bushels
Difference in Jan-Sept Rainfall 2020 vs 2019mm
November 10, 2020
Rainfall in 2020 has significantly improved growing conditions vs 2019, production estimates for
major winter crops are up significantly, and the summer crop area is also forecast to increase
Source: ABARES, Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Australia: Growing Conditions Improve
Australia Summer Crop AreaMillion Acres
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Wheat Barley Canola
0
1
2
3
4Sorghum Cotton Corn Rice Soybeans Sunflower
+61%
+72%
Key growing areas circled in red.
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India: A Bright Spot for Nutrient Demand 19
India Fertilizer Import ProfileMillion Tonnes
3.8
6.6
4.34.55.5
4.04.7
6.3 6.0
4.1
9.7
5.3
0
3
6
9
12
15
MOP DAPUrea
4.5-5.0
9.0-9.5
6.0-6.5
2020F2016 20192017 2018
November 10, 2020
Source: CRU, Katana, India Meteorological Department, Nutrien
600
0
100
200
500
300
400
Paddy Rice Corn Soybeans Cotton
+3% +5%
+5%
+5%2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Minimum Support Prices for Kharif CropsRs./tonne
India Monsoon in 2020 vs NormalDaily Mean Rainfall (mm)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1-J
un
7-J
un
13
-Ju
n
19
-Ju
n
25
-Ju
n
1-J
ul
7-J
ul
13
-Ju
l
19
-Ju
l
25
-Ju
l
31
-Ju
l
6-A
ug
12
-Au
g
18
-Au
g
24
-Au
g
30
-Au
g
5-S
ep
11
-Se
p
17
-Se
p
23
-Se
p
29
-Se
p
Actual Normal (1961-2010)
The increase in crop prices and the early monsoon rains have supported the Kharif plantings,
which in turn supports demand for fertilizers
-
Chinese Corn Demand Supporting Corn Prices
November 10, 2020
20
China Corn Production Surplus/DeficitMillion Tonnes
Recent state corn auctions in China have sold out, providing a catalyst for the recent strength
in prices.
Corn Prices in ChinaUS$/bushel
36
9
(4)
(17) (16)(19)
2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21F
$9.25
$7.10$6.25
$7.08 $6.91 $6.78
$9.65
Source: Bloomberg, USDA
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Supportive Chinese Crop Import Demand 21
US Cumulative Corn Export Sales to ChinaMillion Tonnes
0
4
8
12
3-Sep 3-Nov 3-Jan 3-Mar 3-May 3-Jul
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Prior 10yr Average
0
10
20
30
3-Sep 3-Nov 3-Jan 3-Mar 3-May 3-Jul
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Prior 10yr Average
US corn exports to China since Sep 1’20 are ~15 times higher
than prior 10-year average with potential for further upside
November 10, 2020
Source: USDA
US Cumulative Soybean Export Sales to ChinaMillion Tonnes
-
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20F
Sales Volumes Gross Margin % of Net Sales
Strong potash margins supported by our low-cost mines and extensive distribution network
Potash: Historically Strong Margins And Volume Growth Throughout The Nutrient Cycle
Sales Volume Gross Margin1
Million Tonnes KCl Percent
1. 1998 to 2016 potash gross margin as a percentage of net sales based on PotashCorp financial information.
2. Based on potash sales volume guidance provided in our news release November 2, 2020.
22
Source: Nutrien
2
November 10, 2020
-
0
5
10
15
20
16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F
Million Tonnes KCl
2020
Fo
recast
23
We expect strong global potash demand of 65 to 67 million tonnes in 2020,
up from ~64 million tonnes in 2019
Global Potash Deliveries by Region
Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien
November 10, 2020
India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other
4.5 – 5.0Mmt
• Expect increased
shipments supported
by normal monsoon
rains in 2020 and
increased minimum
support prices and
production for key
crops
8.5 – 9.5Mmt
• Palm oil prices have
strengthened in the
second half and we
expect supportive crop
prices for a wide range
of other crops, such as
rice to support
increased demand
9.5 – 10.0Mmt
• Rebound in corn and
soybean acreage
combined with more
normal application
weather expected to
support a rebound in
potash consumption
13.0 – 14.0Mmt
• Strong corn and
soybean fundamentals
and record-high
grower margins,
combined with lower
inland potash
inventory, expected to
support demand
15.0 – 16.0Mmt
• Expect reduced
shipments driven by
inventory build in 2019,
however domestic
consumption remains
supported by tightened
crop supplies and
government subsidies
13.5 – 14.0Mmt
• Improved affordability
and growing demand
for NPK fertilizers,
particularly in Africa
and FSU countries, are
expected to boost
potash demand
-
Global Potash Producer Sales
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, Nutrien
Global Potash Producer Shipment Changes(Million Tonnes KCl)
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.2
2019
Shipments
Nutrien Other
North American
Producers
Former
Soviet Union
Producers
Rest of the
World
2020F
Shipments
63.8
66.0
24
November 10, 2020
Nutrien well-positioned to meet an increase in global potash demand
-
Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand
Global Nitrogen S&DMillion Tonnes Nitrogen
Global Utilization Rate1
Percent
Expect improved global demand and limited new capacity lead to a tighter supply/demand
balance in 2020 and over the medium-term
25
Source: Source: CRU, Nutrien
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 Demand* Operational Capability
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
1. Based on estimated operational capability
Note: Demand growth based on 20-year CAGR 2002 to 2022 November 10, 2020
-
Source: Fertecon, US EIA, Canadian Gas Price Reporter, CRU, Nutrien
26
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20
Henry Hub (lhs) AECO (lhs) European Hub (lhs) Chinese Anthracite Coal (rhs)
Energy Feedstock PricesUS$/MMBtu
Global Energy Price Spreads Are Increasing
November 10, 2020
Increased European natural gas and Chinese anthracite coal prices are supportive of the
global N cost curve entering 2021
RMB/mt
-
Indian Urea Demand Supports Global Urea Market 27
India Urea Supply (YTD Jan – Sep)Million Tonnes
6.3
2016
5.2
2015
17.4 18.0
9.2
17.4
20192017
4.3
18.2
2018
5.9
18.1
6.1
18.7
2020
23.7 23.2
26.6
22.523.9
24.7
* Includes unofficial estimates of unaccounted stocks
India Domestic SalesMillion Tonnes
0
25
5
10
15
35
20
30
Feb AprJan JulMar May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
+4%
Imports Production 2019 2020
November 10, 2020
Source: Katana, CRU, Nutrien
Strong urea demand and imports are supporting urea prices
-
Retail Network Optimization – Tuck-ins, Targeted Builds & Closures
1. Excludes Actagro, Ruralco and other acquisitions not considered tuck-ins.
2. 2010 cumulative closures represents the period of 2006 to 2010.
3. 2011-2016 data is based upon Agrium Inc. financials. 2017 based on the combined historical information as presented in our 2018 Annual Report. 2010 to 2017
figures are presented as Retail EBITDA. 2018 to 2020 are presented as Retail Adjusted EBITDA.
0
200
400
600
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cumulative Store Closures U.S. Canada Australia South America
2
Global Tuck-in Acquisitions1,3
Cumulative Global Store Closures
& Consolidations
Source: Nutrien
38 Major ‘Hub’ Locations Across
the US
November 10, 2020
28
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total
# of Locations Acquired1 33 59 22 32 26 76 44 53 64 409
Annual Sales1 $210 $477 $128 $192 $190 >$500 ~$300 ~$400 ~$450 >$2,800
(US millions)
Annual Adjusted
EBITDA1 $27 $49 $12 $32 $20 ~$35 ~$23 ~$40 ~$40 >$270(US millions) (Year 1)
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Nutrien is Strengthening its Retail Business: Strategic Transactions
✓ 42nd largest US Ag retailer
✓ 11 locations
✓ 5,000 customers
✓ Environmentally sustainable soil and plant
health and tech
✓ US $55M1 EBITDA
Actagro is aligned with Nutrien’s strategy to invest in
higher-margin proprietary products that provide
strong value for growers.
Van Horn has built a strong ag retail business, with
a track record of providing high value products and
service for growers in Illinois.
✓ 3rd largest Ag retailer in AUS
✓ Purchase closed Sep 30, 2019
✓ US $70M1 EBITDA
The combined business will further strengthen the
service and innovation that Nutrien Ag Solutions
delivers to Australian growers.
Nutrien is growing its geographic footprint and Ag solutions offerings
November 10, 2020
29
1. Expected run-rate annual EBITDA
✓ 30 years experience in Brazilian crop
input market
✓ 12 farm centers
✓ US $60M annual sales
The Agrosema acquisition is an excellent fit as we
continue to build our Ag retail business in the
important and growing Brazilian agricultural market.
Source: Nutrien
✓ 25 years experience in Brazilian crop
input market
✓ 8 retail branches
✓ US $200M annual sales
✓ Largest branded soybean seeds business
in Brazil
This acquisition fits with our strategy to bring whole
farm solutions to our Brazilian customers.
-
Helena, 7%
Simplot Retail, 6%
Growmark, 5%
Wilbur-Ellis, 4%CHS, 3%
Significant Opportunity for Further US Retail Acquisitions
Expect to execute on
roll-up opportunity &
target to expand business
to 25%-30%
Independents, 24%
Co-ops, 30%
21%
NTR has ~21% market share with only 10% of the facilities
30
Source: CropLife, Nutrien
November 10, 2020
-
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Proprietary Seed
Proprietary Nutritional Products
Proprietary Crop Protection Products
Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider
Gross Margin (2019)US$ Billions
Crop Nutrients 32%
Crop Protection 36%
Seed 11%
Services/Other 18%
$3.2B
Crop inputs & services for over 100
different crops
Corn, 27%
Fruits and Vegetables,
18%Wheat,
16%
Soybean, 14%
Canola, 7%
Cotton, 7%
All Other, 11%
Providing everything growers need
to maximize yields. >3,400 crop
advisors
Broad Crop Diversity Complete Ag Solutions Offering
Merchandise 3%
Proprietary Products
Consistent growth platform of higher
margin products valued by growers
Gross Margin1
US$ Millions
Revenue by Crop (2019)Percent
31
Source: Nutrien
1. 2012-2016 data is based upon Agrium Inc. financials. Excludes Dalgety animal health products.November 10, 2020
-
Crop Planning ToolAbility to place digital orders directly from the
plan
Nutrien FinancialSeamlessly apply for financing/credit for
purchases from Nutrien Ag Solutions
Field-specific Seed
Recommendation ToolField by field multi-brand seed selling
solution
Fertility Management ToolSoil and tissue data driven fertility insights
International ExpansionPlanning phase underway to roll out platform
in Australia and South America
Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform:“Progress Update and Future Plans”
32
November 10, 2020
Source: Nutrien
✓ Purchasing of key crop protection, fertilizer and seed products, order online or have your
agronomist do it on your behalf
✓ Pay bills online, look up past purchases, see
account balances, notifications of new statements
✓ Farm insight app current spray conditions, radar for rain & temperature, last 24 hours of
rainfall, and national rainfall layers
✓ Sustainability calculator and reporting linked to applied inputs and agronomic practices
✓ Digital crop plans created tailor-made with your agronomist
Current Functionality Planned Additions
-
Pathway to ESG Improvement 33
Our strategy is expected to enable material improvements to Nutrien’s ESG performance
in the areas that rank most important to shareholders
Environmental
Social
Governance
Assessing ESG Risks3rd-Party ESG Research,
Ratings & Rankings
Improved ESG
Disclosure &
Associated Metrics
Evaluating industry risk,
listening to stakeholders and
benchmarking best practices
Improving our ESG
performance and profileAssessing reporting landscape
and frameworks. Revised
approach to 2020 ESG
reporting
November 10, 2020
Source: Nutrien
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiO04HM45fmAhXGHjQIHbGFCXsQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aegon.com%2Fnewsroom%2Fnews%2F2016%2F-Dow-Jones-Sustainability-Indices-%2F&psig=AOvVaw1nR3SW7dcDmLiQ7AU-ygyt&ust=1575404056520175
-
Nutrien: Focused on Sustainable Agriculture
What have we done?
✓ Developed baseline 2018 scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions and obtained limited external
assurance from KPMG
✓ Assessing our scope 3 GHG emissions inventory and are continuing to evaluate
✓ Developing a comprehensive ESG and climate strategy including KPIs and targets, which is
expected to roll out within the next year
✓ Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform, Echelon precision Ag solutions, 4R stewardship
✓ Invested in technology, partnerships and products, some recent examples:
+ Acquisitions of Agrible, Waypoint, Actagro and Agbridge driving grower data analytics and solutions
+ ESN(~0.5 mmt) ~50% less N2O emissions vs. urea, DEF(0.6 mmt) ~90% NOx reduction
+ 1.2mmt of annual captured CO2, 250kt annual carbon capture GHG offset at Redwater nitrogen
facility through the Alberta Trunk Line with potential to increase in the future
November 10, 2020
34
Source: Nutrien
-
Explaining the Gap: Why is NTR’s D&A Higher Than Sustaining CapEx?
November 10, 2020
35
Source: Nutrien
Sustaining CapEx (2019)
A number of factors contribute to Nutrien’s D&A being higher than sustaining capex, however
core depreciation1 is in line with sustaining CapEx of ~$1.0B.
Nitrogen
Retail
Potash
Phosphate
Corporate
$1.0B
Normal course amortization for assets such as
intangibles do not require regular cash outlays to
maintain them in a safe and reliable manner.
The adoption of IFRS 16 resulted in $1.1B of
leased assets being capitalized, and increased
depreciation expense.
The merger resulted in certain balance sheet
items written up to fair value, contributing to higher
D&A for a number of assets such as intangible
assets and PP&E.
D&A (2019)
Core Depreciation
Amortization
PPA
Leases
$1.8B
1
2
3
1. Core depreciation represents depreciation related to tangible assets excluding leased assets and impact of fair value adjustments from the merger.
$1.1B
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For further information, visit:
www.nutrien.com
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facebook.com/nutrienltd
linkedin.com/company/nutrien
youtube.com/nutrien
Thank You!