Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 10/29/2020  · Investor Presentation November 10, 2020....

36
Investor Presentation November 10, 2020

Transcript of Investor Presentation - Nutrien · 10/29/2020  · Investor Presentation November 10, 2020....

  • Investor PresentationNovember 10, 2020

  • Forward-Looking Statements Advisory 2

    Note: All dollar amounts are stated in US dollars throughout the presentation unless otherwise noted.

    Certain statements and other information included in this document, including within “Outlook and Guidance” constitute "forward-looking information" or "forward-looking statements" (collectively, "forward-looking statements") under applicable securities laws (such statements are often accompanied by words such as "anticipate", “forecast”, "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "intend" or other similar words). All statements in this document, other than those relating to historical information or current conditions, are forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: expected 2020 adjusted EBITDA and Retail adjusted EBITDA and margin estimates; estimated adjusted EBITDA fertilizer price sensitivity, capital spending expectations for 2020; expectations regarding performance of our operating segments in 2020 and beyond; our operating segment market outlooks and market conditions for 2020 and beyond, and the anticipated supply and demand for our products and services, expected market and industry conditions with respect to crop nutrient application rates, planted acres, crop mix, prices and the impact of currency fluctuations and import and export volumes. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements.

    All of the forward-looking statements are qualified by the assumptions that are stated or inherent in such forward-looking statements, including the assumptions referred to below and elsewhere in this document. Although we believe that these assumptions are reasonable, this list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the forward-looking statements and the reader should not place an undue reliance on these assumptions and such forward-looking statements. The additional key assumptions that have been made include, among other things, assumptions with respect to our ability to successfully complete, integrate and realize the anticipated benefits of our already completed and future acquisitions, and that we will be able to implement our standards, controls, procedures and policies at any acquired businesses to realize the expected synergies; that future business, regulatory and industry conditions will be within the parameters expected by us, including with respect to prices, margins, demand, supply, product availability, supplier agreements, availability and cost of labor and interest, exchange and effective tax rates; the completion of our expansion projects on schedule, as planned and on budget; assumptions with respect to global economic conditions and the accuracy of our market outlook expectations for 2020 and in the future; our expectations regarding the impacts, direct and indirect, of COVID-19 on our business, customers, business partners, employees, supply chain, other stakeholders and the overall economy; the adequacy of our cash generated from operations and our ability to access our credit facilities or capital markets for additional sources of financing; our ability to identify suitable candidates for acquisitions and divestitures and negotiate acceptable terms; our ability to maintain investment grade ratings and achieve our performance targets; and the receipt, on time, of all necessary permits, utilities and project approvals with respect to our expansion projects and that we will have the resources necessary to meet the projects’ approach.

    Events or circumstances that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: general global economic, market and business conditions; failure to complete announced and future acquisitions or divestitures at all or on the expected terms and within the expected timeline; climate change and weather conditions, including impacts from regional flooding and/or drought conditions; crop planted acreage, yield and prices; the supply and demand and price levels for our products; governmental and regulatory requirements and actions by governmental authorities, including changes in government policy (including tariffs, trade restrictions and climate change initiatives), government ownership requirements, changes in environmental, tax and other laws or regulations and the interpretation thereof; political risks, including civil unrest, actions by armed groups or conflict and malicious acts including terrorism; the occurrence of a major environmental or safety incident; innovation and cybersecurity risks related to our systems, including our costs of addressing or mitigating such risks; regional natural gas supply restrictions; counterparty and sovereign risk; delays in completion of turnarounds at our major facilities; gas supply interruptions; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; risks related to reputational loss; certain complications that may arise in our mining processes; the ability to attract, engage and retain skilled employees and strikes or other forms of work stoppages; the COVID-19 pandemic and its resulting effects on business and economic conditions; and other risk factors detailed from time to time in Nutrien reports, including our 2019 annual report dated February 19, 2020, our annual information form dated February 19, 2020 for the year ended December 31, 2019 and our third quarter 2020 interim report dated November 2, 2020, filed with the Canadian securities regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.

    The purpose of our expected 2020 adjusted EBITDA and Retail adjusted EBITDA estimates and the estimated adjusted EBITDA fertilizer price sensitivity are to assist readers in understanding our expected and targeted financial results, and this information may not be appropriate for other purposes.

    The forward-looking statements in this document are made as of the date hereof and Nutrien disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this document as a result of new information or future events, except as may be required under applicable Canadian securities legislation or applicable US federal securities laws.

    Non-IFRS Financial Measures AdvisoryThis document contains certain non-IFRS measures including adjusted EBITDA guidance and the combined historical results of Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. and Agrium Inc. for the year ended December 31, 2017. We consider non-IFRS financial measures to provide useful information to both management and investors in measuring our financial performance and financial condition. Refer to the disclosure under the heading “Appendix B – Non-IFRS Financial Measures” included in our annual report dated February 19, 2020 and in our third quarter 2020 interim report dated November 2, 2020, each as filed on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and EDGAR at www.sec.gov under our corporate profile. We do not provide a reconciliation of forward-looking adjusted EBITDA guidance to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with IFRS due to unknown variables and the uncertainty related to future results. These unknown variables may include unpredictable transactions of significant value that may be inherently difficult to determine, without unreasonable efforts. Non-IFRS financial measures are not recognized measures under IFRS and our method of calculation may not be comparable to that of other companies. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with IFRS.

    November 10, 2020

  • 3

    Stability and

    GrowthRetail Ag Solutions provides earnings

    stability & exposure to multiple growth

    platforms

    Stable and Growing

    ReturnsTop tier, attractive & secure dividend

    Nutrient

    UpsideFertilizer markets are expected to recover

    providing significant earnings upside

    potential

    Strong Financial

    PositionNutrien has a solid balance sheet

    with ample liquidity

    Nutrien’s

    Key

    Message

    November 10, 2020

  • Retail Business Continues to Deliver Growth and is Becoming Increasingly Diversified

    Retail Adjusted EBITDAUS Billions

    Source: Nutrien

    4

    Industrial

    November 10, 2020

    Non-US Retail

    US Retail

    ~30%

    ~20%

    20101

    $0.5

    2020F220151

    $1.0

    $1.37-$1.42 • Delivering earnings growth

    through the cycle, from organic

    growth (incl. investments in

    technology, private label) &

    accretive acquisitions

    • Non-US Retail now accounts for

    ~30% of total Retail earnings

    • Australian 2019 Adjusted

    EBITDA margins at ~9%. More

    than double 2014 levels &

    Ruralco margins

    8%

    7.5%

    margins

    8.5%

    margins

    1. 2010 & 2015 Retail EBITDA and Retail Adjusted EBITDA margin for Agrium Inc..

    2. Based on Retail Adjusted EBITDA guidance as provided in our news release November 2, 2020.

  • Retail Differentiation on Multiple Fronts Will Help to Unlock Organic Growth and Value Creation

    5

    November 10, 2020

    Leading Online

    Platform43%

    Total Share of Digital Sales of

    Available Product Lines

    Q3’20 YTD1,2

    >$1.0BTotal Digital Platform Sales

    Q3’20 YTD2

    Adjusted EBITDA

    Growth and

    Performance

    $1.1BAdjusted EBITDA

    Q3’20 YTD

    10.4%US Retail

    Adjusted EBITDA Margin

    Q3’20 LTM

    1. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of North American Retail sales that are available for purchase online.

    2. Represents North America results.

    3. Post close of the Tec Agro acquisition.

    Brazil Growth

    Strategy3~$500M

    Expected Annual Normalized

    Run-Rate Revenue

    >10%Expected EBITDA

    Margins

  • Crop Prices Have Improved from Summer Lows

    November 10, 2020

    6

    Source: Bloomberg

    $3.64$3.34

    $4.06

    May

    ’20

    Prev.

    3 Yr

    Avg.

    Nov

    ’20

    +22%

    $0.70

    $0.58

    $0.70

    Prev.

    3 Yr

    Avg.

    May

    ’20

    Nov

    ’20

    +21%

    R$63

    R$96

    R$171

    Prev.

    3 Yr

    Avg.

    May

    ’20

    Nov

    ’20

    +78%

    RM 2,403

    RM 3,440

    Prev.

    3 Yr

    Avg.

    May

    ’20

    Nov

    ’20

    RM 2,165

    +59%

    $4.83$5.24

    $5.98

    May

    ’20

    Prev.

    3 Yr

    Avg.

    Nov

    ’20

    +14%

    $9.20$8.50

    $11.02

    Nov

    ’20

    Prev.

    3 Yr

    Avg.

    May

    ’20

    +30%

    US Corn(US$/bushel)

    US Soybean(US$/bushel)

    US Wheat(US$/bushel)

    US Cotton

    (US$/lb)Palm Oil

    (MYR/tonne)

    Brazil Soybean(Real/60kg bag)

    Prices as of mid-day November 9, 2020. CME futures prices for corn, wheat, cotton (Dec), soybeans (Nov), and spot prices for palm oil and Brazil soybeans. Previous 3-year

    average from October – end of contract.

    Bullish S&D forecasts & strong Chinese demand have driven crop prices higher

  • Fertilizer Price Fundamentals in 2H20 Showing Signs of Recovery With Multiple Catalysts Emerging

    Source: CRU

    November 10, 2020

    7

    Several positive fertilizer

    developments are emerging:

    • Favorable US growing conditions this

    summer have led to an early harvest

    season, which should be supportive for

    fall fertilizer application rates

    • Strong demand out of India has provided

    stability for urea prices

    • US phosphate prices have increased in

    2H20 due to strong demand out of Brazil

    and the impact from Mosaic’s

    countervailing duties petition

    • The majority of new potash capacity is

    now online and being absorbed in the

    market. No significant new nameplate

    capacity expected in the near term.

    $150

    $200

    $250

    $300

    $350

    $400

    $450

    Nov-1

    7

    Jan

    -18

    Ma

    r-18

    Ma

    y-1

    8

    Jul-

    18

    Sep-1

    8

    Nov-1

    8

    Jan

    -19

    Ma

    r-19

    Ma

    y-1

    9

    Jul-

    19

    Sep-1

    9

    Nov-1

    9

    Jan

    -20

    Ma

    r-20

    Ma

    y-2

    0

    Jul-

    20

    Sep-2

    0

    NOLA Urea (USD/st) US DAP (USD/st)

    Brazil Potash (USD/mt)

    Fertilizer Prices

    Prices are monthly averages.

  • 10.9-11.13

    2019 2020 2021

    Nutrien Expects to Benefit From A Cyclical Recovery in Market Prices and Higher Sales Volumes

    8

    2020 Global Urea Production Cost CurveUS$/tonne

    November 10, 2020

    Source: CRU, Fertecon, Nutrien

    Operational Capability (Mmt)

    20

    250

    100

    300

    1206040

    150

    80 1800 160

    0

    350

    50

    140100

    200

    1. Reported spot prices as of October 29, 2020.

    2. Refers to manufactured product only (excludes ESN® and Rainbow products).

    3. Based on Nitrogen sales volume guidance as provided in our news release November 2, 2020.

    4. Additional operational capacity completed in 2020 & 2021.

    US Nola FOB ($/mt)1

    NTR Nitrogen Sales Volumes2

    Million Tonnes

    10.3

    Offshore

    2020F Range

    N.A.

    Expect ~350Kmt

    of additional

    operational

    capacity by end of

    20214

    At current pricing levels, a sizeable portion of global production is at negative margins; Nutrien

    expects to benefit from its investment in new capacity

  • Strong free cash flow generation supports a stable & growing dividend, which at a current yield

    of 4.7%1 provides a stable rate of return while shareholders wait for price recovery

    Strong Annual Free Cash Flow And Stable & Growing Dividend

    9

    November 10, 2020

    Source: Nutrien

    Dividends PaidUS$/Share

    2020 Capital Allocation2

    US$ Billions

    “A robust buffer exists to

    support our dividend

    payment, even at the bottom

    of the Ag cycle”

    2020F Adj.

    EBITDA2Sustaining

    Capex2Dividends3 Remaining

    Capital4Interest and

    Taxes2

    0.9

    2020F Range3.7

    3.5

    $0.45

    Apr’18 - Oct’18

    $0.43

    Jan’19 - Jul’19 Oct’19 - Nov’20

    $0.40

    Horizontal axis represents

    the length of time at each dividend level

    1. Dividend yield calculated as dividend per share ($1.80/sh annualized) divided by the closing share price on the NYSE as at November 4, 2020.

    2. Based on internal forecasts aligned with annual guidance provided in our news release dated November 2, 2020. Interest and taxes are disclosed on a cash basis.

    3. Based on 569M shares outstanding multiplied by an annualized dividend per share of $1.80.

    4. Assumes the mid-point of 2020F Adjusted EBITDA guidance as provided in our news release dated November 2, 2020.

  • Nutrien Providing Sector-Leading Returns of Capital

    Share Repurchases and Dividends as a % of Market Cap3

    (Percent)

    BG

    8.5

    ADM

    8.1

    SDF

    6.7

    AGCO

    4.9

    CTVA YAR

    30.3

    ICLMOS

    11.0

    FMC INGR

    9.6

    24.3

    NutrienDE CF

    2.4

    9.6

    12.412.3

    32.7NTR

    Peers

    Segment size represents percentage of returns made to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases paid

    as reported from January 1, 2018 to November 4, 2020

    Source: CapitalIQ

    NTR returned $6.6B1 to shareholders by way of dividends and share repurchases and

    possesses one of the highest dividend yields among its peers at 4.7%2

    1. Dividend and share repurchases paid as reported from January 1, 2018 to November 4, 2020

    2. Dividend yield calculated as dividend per share ($1.80/sh annualized) divided by the closing share price on the NYSE as at November 4, 2020.

    3. Represents cash paid from share repurchases and dividends per the cash flow statement as reported from January 1, 2018 to November 4, 2020 divided by the

    respective market capitalization as of November 4, 2020.

    November 10, 2020

    10

  • Investing at The Bottom: Positioned to Capitalize on A Fertilizer Price Rebound

    November 10, 2020

    11

    Nutrien’s wholesale business has significant leverage to fertilizer prices, which is expected to

    provide a catalyst for earnings growth as prices rebound from bottom of the cycle levels

    ✓Commodity prices have recovered ~20% from their March 2020 lows1

    ✓Many potash and nitrogen producers are experiencing negative margins at current prices

    ✓Fertilizer prices have recently started to climb out of the historically low levels seen in 1H20

    Price Drivers and Earnings Sensitivity

    +$650MEstimated annualized impact

    to Nutrien Adjusted EBITDA from

    a $25/mt increase in fertilizer

    prices

    Sources: Bloomberg, Nutrien

    1. Bloomberg commodity index price comparison between Mar 18, 2020 to Nov 4, 2020.

  • Nutrien’s Sustainability Strategy

    “Our integrated

    sustainability

    strategy is

    addressing our most

    material ESG risks

    and providing

    solutions for a

    growing world.”

    Nutrien President and CEO,

    Chuck Magro

    November 10, 2020

    12

    Source: Nutrien

  • Appendix

  • 14

    LEGEND:

    RETAIL

    POTASH

    NITROGEN

    PHOSPHATE

    ESN®

    OFFICES

    North and South America

    GRANULATION

    LOVELAND PRODUCTS

    AND AFFILIATED FACILITIES

    AGRICHEM

    TEC AGRO

    INVESTMENTS AND JV’S

    Source: Nutrien

    Australia

    Nutrien has a unique global footprint and well positioned assets

    Leading Global Integrated Ag Solutions Provider

    1. North American digital Retail sales as a proportion of North American Retail sales that are available for purchase online.

    >500,000Grower accounts worldwide

    43% Digitally enabled Retail

    sales Q3’20 YTD1

    10.2 MmtPotash sales volumes

    Q3’20 YTD

    ~6.0 MmtAvailable Potash Capacity

    >3,400Agronomists serving

    growers around the world

    November 10, 2020

  • Strong Grower Cash Margins 15

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    -150

    100

    350

    600

    850

    1,100

    1,350

    1,600

    1,850

    2,100

    Key Crop Grower Cash MarginsLocal Currency Margin/Acre

    US Corn US Soybean US Wheat US Cotton CDN Canola Brazil Soybean

    November 10, 2020

    Source: Bloomberg, USDA, IMEA, CONAB, CRU, Nutrien

    Grower margin supported strong crop prices & affordable crop input prices

  • Early Harvest Supportive of Fall Applications 16

    Corn Harvest Progress% of US Total

    Soybean Harvest Progress% of US Total

    November 10, 2020

    US corn and soybean harvest progress is ahead of normal, allowing growers to begin fall

    applications significantly earlier than in the past two years

    Source: USDA

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Sep14

    Sep21

    Sep28

    Oct5

    Oct12

    Oct19

    Oct26

    Nov2

    Nov9

    Nov16

    Nov23

    Nov30

    2020 2019 Previous 5yr Avg

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Sep14

    Sep21

    Sep28

    Oct5

    Oct12

    Oct19

    Oct26

    Nov2

    Nov9

    Nov16

    Nov23

    Nov30

    2020 2019 Previous 5yr Avg

  • Brazil: Strong Grower Economics 17

    Brazilian Harvested AcreageMillions of Hectares

    Soybean planting is slower than normal but has begun to catch up.

    Record prices and margins are expected to drive a ~5% increase in harvested acreage.

    November 10, 2020

    Source: USDA, Bloomberg, CONAB, Nutrien

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020F

    Corn Soybeans

    Mato Grosso Soybean Planting ProgressPercentage Complete

    3.4%

    CAGR

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Sep 1

    8

    Sep 2

    5

    Oct

    2

    Oct

    9

    Oct

    16

    Oct

    23

    Oct

    30

    No

    v 6

    Nov 1

    3

    Nov 2

    0

    Nov 2

    7

    De

    c 4

    Dec 1

    1

    Dec 1

    8

    Dec 2

    5

    2020/21 2019/20 Prior 5yr Average

  • 18

    Australia Winter Crop ProductionMillion Bushels

    Difference in Jan-Sept Rainfall 2020 vs 2019mm

    November 10, 2020

    Rainfall in 2020 has significantly improved growing conditions vs 2019, production estimates for

    major winter crops are up significantly, and the summer crop area is also forecast to increase

    Source: ABARES, Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

    Australia: Growing Conditions Improve

    Australia Summer Crop AreaMillion Acres

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500Wheat Barley Canola

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4Sorghum Cotton Corn Rice Soybeans Sunflower

    +61%

    +72%

    Key growing areas circled in red.

  • India: A Bright Spot for Nutrient Demand 19

    India Fertilizer Import ProfileMillion Tonnes

    3.8

    6.6

    4.34.55.5

    4.04.7

    6.3 6.0

    4.1

    9.7

    5.3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    MOP DAPUrea

    4.5-5.0

    9.0-9.5

    6.0-6.5

    2020F2016 20192017 2018

    November 10, 2020

    Source: CRU, Katana, India Meteorological Department, Nutrien

    600

    0

    100

    200

    500

    300

    400

    Paddy Rice Corn Soybeans Cotton

    +3% +5%

    +5%

    +5%2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

    Minimum Support Prices for Kharif CropsRs./tonne

    India Monsoon in 2020 vs NormalDaily Mean Rainfall (mm)

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    1-J

    un

    7-J

    un

    13

    -Ju

    n

    19

    -Ju

    n

    25

    -Ju

    n

    1-J

    ul

    7-J

    ul

    13

    -Ju

    l

    19

    -Ju

    l

    25

    -Ju

    l

    31

    -Ju

    l

    6-A

    ug

    12

    -Au

    g

    18

    -Au

    g

    24

    -Au

    g

    30

    -Au

    g

    5-S

    ep

    11

    -Se

    p

    17

    -Se

    p

    23

    -Se

    p

    29

    -Se

    p

    Actual Normal (1961-2010)

    The increase in crop prices and the early monsoon rains have supported the Kharif plantings,

    which in turn supports demand for fertilizers

  • Chinese Corn Demand Supporting Corn Prices

    November 10, 2020

    20

    China Corn Production Surplus/DeficitMillion Tonnes

    Recent state corn auctions in China have sold out, providing a catalyst for the recent strength

    in prices.

    Corn Prices in ChinaUS$/bushel

    36

    9

    (4)

    (17) (16)(19)

    2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21F

    $9.25

    $7.10$6.25

    $7.08 $6.91 $6.78

    $9.65

    Source: Bloomberg, USDA

  • Supportive Chinese Crop Import Demand 21

    US Cumulative Corn Export Sales to ChinaMillion Tonnes

    0

    4

    8

    12

    3-Sep 3-Nov 3-Jan 3-Mar 3-May 3-Jul

    2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Prior 10yr Average

    0

    10

    20

    30

    3-Sep 3-Nov 3-Jan 3-Mar 3-May 3-Jul

    2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 Prior 10yr Average

    US corn exports to China since Sep 1’20 are ~15 times higher

    than prior 10-year average with potential for further upside

    November 10, 2020

    Source: USDA

    US Cumulative Soybean Export Sales to ChinaMillion Tonnes

  • 0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20F

    Sales Volumes Gross Margin % of Net Sales

    Strong potash margins supported by our low-cost mines and extensive distribution network

    Potash: Historically Strong Margins And Volume Growth Throughout The Nutrient Cycle

    Sales Volume Gross Margin1

    Million Tonnes KCl Percent

    1. 1998 to 2016 potash gross margin as a percentage of net sales based on PotashCorp financial information.

    2. Based on potash sales volume guidance provided in our news release November 2, 2020.

    22

    Source: Nutrien

    2

    November 10, 2020

  • 0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F 16 17 18 19 20F

    Million Tonnes KCl

    2020

    Fo

    recast

    23

    We expect strong global potash demand of 65 to 67 million tonnes in 2020,

    up from ~64 million tonnes in 2019

    Global Potash Deliveries by Region

    Source: CRU, Fertecon, IFA, Nutrien

    November 10, 2020

    India Other Asia North America Latin America China Other

    4.5 – 5.0Mmt

    • Expect increased

    shipments supported

    by normal monsoon

    rains in 2020 and

    increased minimum

    support prices and

    production for key

    crops

    8.5 – 9.5Mmt

    • Palm oil prices have

    strengthened in the

    second half and we

    expect supportive crop

    prices for a wide range

    of other crops, such as

    rice to support

    increased demand

    9.5 – 10.0Mmt

    • Rebound in corn and

    soybean acreage

    combined with more

    normal application

    weather expected to

    support a rebound in

    potash consumption

    13.0 – 14.0Mmt

    • Strong corn and

    soybean fundamentals

    and record-high

    grower margins,

    combined with lower

    inland potash

    inventory, expected to

    support demand

    15.0 – 16.0Mmt

    • Expect reduced

    shipments driven by

    inventory build in 2019,

    however domestic

    consumption remains

    supported by tightened

    crop supplies and

    government subsidies

    13.5 – 14.0Mmt

    • Improved affordability

    and growing demand

    for NPK fertilizers,

    particularly in Africa

    and FSU countries, are

    expected to boost

    potash demand

  • Global Potash Producer Sales

    Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, Nutrien

    Global Potash Producer Shipment Changes(Million Tonnes KCl)

    0.8

    0.4

    0.8

    0.2

    2019

    Shipments

    Nutrien Other

    North American

    Producers

    Former

    Soviet Union

    Producers

    Rest of the

    World

    2020F

    Shipments

    63.8

    66.0

    24

    November 10, 2020

    Nutrien well-positioned to meet an increase in global potash demand

  • Tightening Global Nitrogen Supply & Demand

    Global Nitrogen S&DMillion Tonnes Nitrogen

    Global Utilization Rate1

    Percent

    Expect improved global demand and limited new capacity lead to a tighter supply/demand

    balance in 2020 and over the medium-term

    25

    Source: Source: CRU, Nutrien

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180 Demand* Operational Capability

    70%

    75%

    80%

    85%

    90%

    95%

    100%

    1. Based on estimated operational capability

    Note: Demand growth based on 20-year CAGR 2002 to 2022 November 10, 2020

  • Source: Fertecon, US EIA, Canadian Gas Price Reporter, CRU, Nutrien

    26

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    $0

    $1

    $2

    $3

    $4

    $5

    $6

    $7

    $8

    $9

    $10

    Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20

    Henry Hub (lhs) AECO (lhs) European Hub (lhs) Chinese Anthracite Coal (rhs)

    Energy Feedstock PricesUS$/MMBtu

    Global Energy Price Spreads Are Increasing

    November 10, 2020

    Increased European natural gas and Chinese anthracite coal prices are supportive of the

    global N cost curve entering 2021

    RMB/mt

  • Indian Urea Demand Supports Global Urea Market 27

    India Urea Supply (YTD Jan – Sep)Million Tonnes

    6.3

    2016

    5.2

    2015

    17.4 18.0

    9.2

    17.4

    20192017

    4.3

    18.2

    2018

    5.9

    18.1

    6.1

    18.7

    2020

    23.7 23.2

    26.6

    22.523.9

    24.7

    * Includes unofficial estimates of unaccounted stocks

    India Domestic SalesMillion Tonnes

    0

    25

    5

    10

    15

    35

    20

    30

    Feb AprJan JulMar May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

    +4%

    Imports Production 2019 2020

    November 10, 2020

    Source: Katana, CRU, Nutrien

    Strong urea demand and imports are supporting urea prices

  • Retail Network Optimization – Tuck-ins, Targeted Builds & Closures

    1. Excludes Actagro, Ruralco and other acquisitions not considered tuck-ins.

    2. 2010 cumulative closures represents the period of 2006 to 2010.

    3. 2011-2016 data is based upon Agrium Inc. financials. 2017 based on the combined historical information as presented in our 2018 Annual Report. 2010 to 2017

    figures are presented as Retail EBITDA. 2018 to 2020 are presented as Retail Adjusted EBITDA.

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

    Cumulative Store Closures U.S. Canada Australia South America

    2

    Global Tuck-in Acquisitions1,3

    Cumulative Global Store Closures

    & Consolidations

    Source: Nutrien

    38 Major ‘Hub’ Locations Across

    the US

    November 10, 2020

    28

    2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total

    # of Locations Acquired1 33 59 22 32 26 76 44 53 64 409

    Annual Sales1 $210 $477 $128 $192 $190 >$500 ~$300 ~$400 ~$450 >$2,800

    (US millions)

    Annual Adjusted

    EBITDA1 $27 $49 $12 $32 $20 ~$35 ~$23 ~$40 ~$40 >$270(US millions) (Year 1)

  • Nutrien is Strengthening its Retail Business: Strategic Transactions

    ✓ 42nd largest US Ag retailer

    ✓ 11 locations

    ✓ 5,000 customers

    ✓ Environmentally sustainable soil and plant

    health and tech

    ✓ US $55M1 EBITDA

    Actagro is aligned with Nutrien’s strategy to invest in

    higher-margin proprietary products that provide

    strong value for growers.

    Van Horn has built a strong ag retail business, with

    a track record of providing high value products and

    service for growers in Illinois.

    ✓ 3rd largest Ag retailer in AUS

    ✓ Purchase closed Sep 30, 2019

    ✓ US $70M1 EBITDA

    The combined business will further strengthen the

    service and innovation that Nutrien Ag Solutions

    delivers to Australian growers.

    Nutrien is growing its geographic footprint and Ag solutions offerings

    November 10, 2020

    29

    1. Expected run-rate annual EBITDA

    ✓ 30 years experience in Brazilian crop

    input market

    ✓ 12 farm centers

    ✓ US $60M annual sales

    The Agrosema acquisition is an excellent fit as we

    continue to build our Ag retail business in the

    important and growing Brazilian agricultural market.

    Source: Nutrien

    ✓ 25 years experience in Brazilian crop

    input market

    ✓ 8 retail branches

    ✓ US $200M annual sales

    ✓ Largest branded soybean seeds business

    in Brazil

    This acquisition fits with our strategy to bring whole

    farm solutions to our Brazilian customers.

  • Helena, 7%

    Simplot Retail, 6%

    Growmark, 5%

    Wilbur-Ellis, 4%CHS, 3%

    Significant Opportunity for Further US Retail Acquisitions

    Expect to execute on

    roll-up opportunity &

    target to expand business

    to 25%-30%

    Independents, 24%

    Co-ops, 30%

    21%

    NTR has ~21% market share with only 10% of the facilities

    30

    Source: CropLife, Nutrien

    November 10, 2020

  • 0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

    Proprietary Seed

    Proprietary Nutritional Products

    Proprietary Crop Protection Products

    Retail: A Leading Agricultural Solutions Provider

    Gross Margin (2019)US$ Billions

    Crop Nutrients 32%

    Crop Protection 36%

    Seed 11%

    Services/Other 18%

    $3.2B

    Crop inputs & services for over 100

    different crops

    Corn, 27%

    Fruits and Vegetables,

    18%Wheat,

    16%

    Soybean, 14%

    Canola, 7%

    Cotton, 7%

    All Other, 11%

    Providing everything growers need

    to maximize yields. >3,400 crop

    advisors

    Broad Crop Diversity Complete Ag Solutions Offering

    Merchandise 3%

    Proprietary Products

    Consistent growth platform of higher

    margin products valued by growers

    Gross Margin1

    US$ Millions

    Revenue by Crop (2019)Percent

    31

    Source: Nutrien

    1. 2012-2016 data is based upon Agrium Inc. financials. Excludes Dalgety animal health products.November 10, 2020

  • Crop Planning ToolAbility to place digital orders directly from the

    plan

    Nutrien FinancialSeamlessly apply for financing/credit for

    purchases from Nutrien Ag Solutions

    Field-specific Seed

    Recommendation ToolField by field multi-brand seed selling

    solution

    Fertility Management ToolSoil and tissue data driven fertility insights

    International ExpansionPlanning phase underway to roll out platform

    in Australia and South America

    Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform:“Progress Update and Future Plans”

    32

    November 10, 2020

    Source: Nutrien

    ✓ Purchasing of key crop protection, fertilizer and seed products, order online or have your

    agronomist do it on your behalf

    ✓ Pay bills online, look up past purchases, see

    account balances, notifications of new statements

    ✓ Farm insight app current spray conditions, radar for rain & temperature, last 24 hours of

    rainfall, and national rainfall layers

    ✓ Sustainability calculator and reporting linked to applied inputs and agronomic practices

    ✓ Digital crop plans created tailor-made with your agronomist

    Current Functionality Planned Additions

  • Pathway to ESG Improvement 33

    Our strategy is expected to enable material improvements to Nutrien’s ESG performance

    in the areas that rank most important to shareholders

    Environmental

    Social

    Governance

    Assessing ESG Risks3rd-Party ESG Research,

    Ratings & Rankings

    Improved ESG

    Disclosure &

    Associated Metrics

    Evaluating industry risk,

    listening to stakeholders and

    benchmarking best practices

    Improving our ESG

    performance and profileAssessing reporting landscape

    and frameworks. Revised

    approach to 2020 ESG

    reporting

    November 10, 2020

    Source: Nutrien

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiO04HM45fmAhXGHjQIHbGFCXsQjRx6BAgBEAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aegon.com%2Fnewsroom%2Fnews%2F2016%2F-Dow-Jones-Sustainability-Indices-%2F&psig=AOvVaw1nR3SW7dcDmLiQ7AU-ygyt&ust=1575404056520175

  • Nutrien: Focused on Sustainable Agriculture

    What have we done?

    ✓ Developed baseline 2018 scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions and obtained limited external

    assurance from KPMG

    ✓ Assessing our scope 3 GHG emissions inventory and are continuing to evaluate

    ✓ Developing a comprehensive ESG and climate strategy including KPIs and targets, which is

    expected to roll out within the next year

    ✓ Nutrien Ag Solutions Digital Platform, Echelon precision Ag solutions, 4R stewardship

    ✓ Invested in technology, partnerships and products, some recent examples:

    + Acquisitions of Agrible, Waypoint, Actagro and Agbridge driving grower data analytics and solutions

    + ESN(~0.5 mmt) ~50% less N2O emissions vs. urea, DEF(0.6 mmt) ~90% NOx reduction

    + 1.2mmt of annual captured CO2, 250kt annual carbon capture GHG offset at Redwater nitrogen

    facility through the Alberta Trunk Line with potential to increase in the future

    November 10, 2020

    34

    Source: Nutrien

  • Explaining the Gap: Why is NTR’s D&A Higher Than Sustaining CapEx?

    November 10, 2020

    35

    Source: Nutrien

    Sustaining CapEx (2019)

    A number of factors contribute to Nutrien’s D&A being higher than sustaining capex, however

    core depreciation1 is in line with sustaining CapEx of ~$1.0B.

    Nitrogen

    Retail

    Potash

    Phosphate

    Corporate

    $1.0B

    Normal course amortization for assets such as

    intangibles do not require regular cash outlays to

    maintain them in a safe and reliable manner.

    The adoption of IFRS 16 resulted in $1.1B of

    leased assets being capitalized, and increased

    depreciation expense.

    The merger resulted in certain balance sheet

    items written up to fair value, contributing to higher

    D&A for a number of assets such as intangible

    assets and PP&E.

    D&A (2019)

    Core Depreciation

    Amortization

    PPA

    Leases

    $1.8B

    1

    2

    3

    1. Core depreciation represents depreciation related to tangible assets excluding leased assets and impact of fair value adjustments from the merger.

    $1.1B

  • For further information, visit:

    www.nutrien.com

    twitter.com/nutrienltd

    facebook.com/nutrienltd

    linkedin.com/company/nutrien

    youtube.com/nutrien

    Thank You!