Investor presentation - Gazeta.plbi.gazeta.pl/im/4/3053/m3053914.pdf · Gazeta Super Express Metro...

16
Investor presentation November 2005 Consolidated figures according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

Transcript of Investor presentation - Gazeta.plbi.gazeta.pl/im/4/3053/m3053914.pdf · Gazeta Super Express Metro...

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Investor presentationNovember 2005

Consolidated figures according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

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2.2%

2.0%1.8%1.7%

1.6%1.7%1.6%1.6%1.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05

Employment in companies

IMPROVING ECONOMIC PICTURE

-16.4%-12.1%

-23.7%

-34.4%-38.8%

-57.1%

-19.6%

0.2%

-10.8%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

Jan'05 Feb'05 Mar'05 Apr'05 May'05 Jun'05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05

No. of cars

4.8%5.5%

4.6%2.3%

-3.7% -1%0.9%

6.9%2.6%

10.5%6.5%

18.5%

13.2%

-3.8%

-17.7%

21.8%

29.9%

17.4%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05

Industrial output (not corrected for seasonal factors) Construction

5.4%

7.9%5.0%

10.5%8.0%

-14.4%

-0.3%

2.4%

7.5%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

Jan'05 Feb'05 Mar'05 Apr'05 May'05 Jun'05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05

Retail sales / current prices

Construction drives growth of industrial output Retail sales up

Jobs are growing New car sales are volatile

Source: Central Statistical Office, IBRM SAMAR

yoy % change yoy % change

yoy % changeyoy % change

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MORE OPTIMISTIC ECONOMIC FORECASTS

4.3%

3.3%

2.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1H 2005 2005 AF 2006 F

8.7%

4.9%

2.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

1H 2005 2005 AF 2006 F

3.7%

2.0%

1.6%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1H 2005 2005 AF 2006 F

1.5%

2.1%

2.9%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1H 2005 2005 AF 2006 F

GDP growth CPI

Individual consumptionCompany investments

Source: Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance - Budget assumptions for the year 2006 presented to the Polish Parliament

yoy % change

yoy % changeyoy % change

yoy % change

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ADVERTISING MARKET CONTINUES TO GROW

13%

8%

16%

12%

4%

17%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005

Total ad spend TV

34%

11%8%

13% 13%

7%

31%

12% 11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Outdoor Radio Magazines

1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005

11%

16%

13%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Newspapers

1Q 2005 2Q 2005 3Q 2005

Total ad spend in 1-3Q 2005 grew by ca.12%

Strong growth in smaller media

TV takes 50% ofelectoral budgets

Dailies continue to grow fast yoy % change

yoy % change

yoy % change

Source: Agora’s estimates adjusted for average discount rate (data in current prices). The estimates refer to advertising expenditures in four media (TV, print, radio and outdoor), which in case of print do not include classifieds, inserts and obituaries. The estimates are based on rate card data of AGB Polska monitoring, Expert Monitor monitoring, Agora monitoring and Izba Gospodarcza Reklamy Zewnetrznej (IGRZ) monitoring.

Deceleration driven by lower

growth rate of TV

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5

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05

Commercial TVN and Polsat Public TVP1 and TVP2

Prime time and off peak in commercial TV

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Prime time Off peak

Prime time and off peak in public TV

10%

30%

50%

70%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

TV RUNS AT FULL CAPACITY

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05

Prime time (commercial TVN and Polsat) Prime time (public TVP1 and TVP2)

Source: AGB Polska

One-week advertising break

Number of TV spots

% usage

thou

TV inventory sell-out rates

% usage

% usage

2005

2005

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PRESS IS STILL BELOW PEAK LEVELS

Source: GDP growth - Central Statistical Office. Advertising market data: Poland - Agora’s estimates adjusted for average discount rate (constant prices). The estimates refer to advertising expenditures in four media (TV, print, radio and outdoor), which in case of print do not include classifieds, inserts and obituaries. The estimates are based on rate card data of AGB Polska, IP Polska, Expert Monitor monitoring, monitoring of Agora and AMS according to IGRZ.. CPI adjustments based on Central Statistical Office data for 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 1-3Q 2005.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

TOTAL TV Dailies Magazines Outdoor Radio

1-3Q 2000

1-3Q 2005 constant prices +1-3Q 2005 current prices

Print will not reach

2000 level in 2005

PLN mln

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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1-3Q 2004 1-3Q 2005

Re Return on equity

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1-3Q 2004 1-3Q 2005

Free cash f low Capex

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1-3Q 2004 1-3Q 20050%

5%

10%

15%

Net profit Net margin

AGORA�S PERFORMANCE TAKES OFF

PLN mlnGrowth in free cash flow Return on equity ahead of cost of equity

Strong operating results Net earnings grow significantly

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1-3Q 2004 1-3Q 20050%

5%

10%

15%

20%

EBIT EBIT margin

PLN mln

!10.6pp

!262.6% !316.3%

!97%

!9.5

pp

yoy change yoy change

yoy % change

PLN mln

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GROWTH IN SCALE CHANGES COMPOSITION OF REVENUES AND COST

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1-3Q 2004 1-3Q 2005

RevenuesPLN mln

!20.6%

Operating cost

+11.9%

-0.7%

+229.5%

+15.8%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1-3Q 2004 1-3Q 2005

PLN mln

!7.2%+37.6%

+28.0%

+0.5%

-8.1%

-15.0%

advertising circulation books other materials promotion staff cost

D&A other

yoy % changeyoy % change

PLN 6 million dedicated to development

Source: Consolidated figures according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)

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MAJOR LINES OF BUSINESS GROW STRONGER

PLN 188.7 million

EBITDA margin 27.8%

EBITDA PLN 208.4 millionRevenues PLN 872.9 millionTHE GROUP

% of total yoy % growth

63%

229.5229.5%%

NEWSPAPER SEGMENT

7.57.5%%

35.135.1%%

2.5pp2.5pp

15%

SSource: Consolidated figures according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), 1-3Q 2005. Newspaper segment includes: Gazeta Wyborcza, Metro, Internet, books, as well as cost of overhead.

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MAJOR LINES OF BUSINESS GROW STRONGER

PLN 22.5 million

EBITDA margin 22%

EBITDA PLN 208.4 millionRevenues PLN 872.9 millionTHE GROUP

% of total yoy % growth

2222%%

5561.861.8%%

117.97.9pppp

12%

Source: Consolidated figures according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), 1-3Q 2005

OUTDOOR

Scale of operationScale of operationss increasesincreases

! Over 1500 new citylight panels

in three big cities

! Fully operational by e/o June 2006

! Investment of PLN 10 million

! 240 wall-mounted panels by e/o 2006

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MAGAZINES AND RADIOS ARE SMALL MARKET PLAYERS

PLN (2.5) million

PLN 5.2 millionEBITDA margin 7.6%

EBITDA PLN 208.4 million

! 11% radio market share

! Advertising share steady

! Managed under two brands �Golden Oldies and Soft Rock

! Slightly negative in 2005 dueto investment in Soft Rockbrand

! 6% magazine market share

! Ad revenues in line withthe market

! Copy sales decline reflectingmarket trend

! Successful new magazines

Revenues PLN 872.9 millionTHE GROUP

% of total yoy % growth

RADIO

MAGAZINES

4%

8%

Source: Consolidated figures according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), 1-3Q 2005

11%%

1166%%

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1-3Q05

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Fakt

Gazeta

Super Express

Metro

Rzeczpospolita

1-3Q 2005

100

200

300

400

500

600

Fakt

Gazeta

Super Express

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Metro

Metropol

Other38% Gazeta

42%

Rzeczpospolita9%Super Express

4%

Fakt6% Metro

1%

Circulation of Gazeta strengthens Metro nearly doubles its circulation

Source: copy sales, circulation: ZKDP (Circulation Audit Office); readership: Polish Readership Research (PBC General), Millward Brown Company SMG/KRC, weekly readership, January–September 2005, N=54 224; advertising: Agora, estimated data (current prices) corrected for average discount rate based on Agora Monitoring. The comparisons refer to 1-3Q 2005 and 1-3Q 2004.

thou copies

Advertising position

-0.6pp

19 cities since mid April 2005

NEWSPAPERS GROW CIRCULATION AND MARKET SHARE

!5%

"7%

"6%

yoy % changethou copies

ReadershipNo of readers (thou)

0%

!197%

!5%

"7%

"5%

yoy % change

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BOOKS ADD SCALE BUT INCREASE VOLATILITY OF RESULTS

Accounting method(according to IFRS):

! Cost booked when incurred

(incl. first free volume)

! Revenues booked when

received

! Profit in late phase of eachproject

1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M 13M 14M 15M 16M 17M 18M 19M 20M

RevenuesCosts

Start ofStart ofthe the

projectprojectDuration of the projectDuration of the project

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

The graph does not refer to real numbers � it was prepared for illustrative purposes only.

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NEWSPAPER BUSINESS IS EXPANDING: NOWY DZIEŃ

NOWY DZIEŃ � first popular mid-market newspaper in Poland

! Launched November 14, 2005

! Mid-market, broadly addressed national daily

! Target copy sales 250 thousand

! Promotion and marketing expense to reach

PLN 25-30 million in 4Q 2005 and

PLN 35-45 million in 2006

! Total cash investment PLN 60-80 million until

break even in 2008

Peop

le a

nd C

ultu

re

Spor

ts

New

s B

ody

and

Soul

Cover price PLN 1 every dayPLN 1.50 on Thursday (TV Guide)

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WHAT TO EXPECT AHEAD IN 2005

! IFRS 2 � share based payments

write-off to be booked

in 4Q 2005 (ca PLN 7 million)

! Improved cost base due to

lower D&A but risk of provisions

after impairment

! Books add cost and increase

volatility and seasonality effects

! New projects increase cost

base

! �NOWY DZIE� to significantly

depress earnings in 4Q 2005

! Lower rate of revenue growth

in 2H 2005

! Cost cuts already reflected

in 2H 2004 results

Diminishing effect of baseDiminishing effect of base Expansion impacts resultsExpansion impacts results Accounting impactAccounting impact

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GROWTH IS THE COMPANY�S OVERARCHING PRIORITY

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

2004 1-3Q 2005 Credit line

Share buy-back

PLN mln

Immediate funds availability

500

mill

ion

operating cash 4Q05

Dividend payoutDividend payout

! PLN 0.5 per share or PLN 28 millionon 2nd September 2005

Share buyShare buy--backback

! Value: PLN 120 million

! Timing: August 18, 2005 �June 30, 2006

! Method: main market (through the

broker); no block transactions; shares to becancelled

funds available+ =

Net cash