Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019...
Transcript of Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019...
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INVESTOR RELATIONSAutumn 2019
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FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTSThis document contains statements, estimates or projections that constitute “forward-looking statements” concerning the financial condition, performance, results, strategy and objectivesof Coca-Cola European Partners plc and its subsidiaries (together “CCEP” or the “Group”). Generally, the words “believe,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “project,” “plan,”“seek,” “may,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “might,” “will,” “forecast,” “outlook,” “guidance,” “possible,” “potential,” “predict,” “objective” and similar expressions identify forward-lookingstatements, which generally are not historical in nature.
Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from CCEP’s historical experience and present expectations or projections. As aresult, undue reliance should not be placed on forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. These risks include but are not limited to those setforth in the “Risk Factors” section of the 2018 Annual Report on Form 20-F, including the statements under the following headings: Changing consumer preferences and the health impactof soft drinks (such as sugar alternatives); Legal and regulatory intervention (such as the development of regulations regarding packaging and taxes); Packaging and plastics;Competitiveness and transformation; Cyber and social engineering attacks; The market (such as customer consolidation and route to market); Economic and political conditions (such ascontinuing developments in relation to the UK’s exit from the EU, political instability in Catalonia, “Gilets Jaunes” protest movement and demonstrations in France); The relationship withTCCC and other franchisors; Product quality; and Other risks.
Due to these risks, CCEP’s actual future results, dividend payments, and capital and leverage ratios may differ materially from the plans, goals, expectations and guidance set out inCCEP’s forward-looking statements. Additional risks that may impact CCEP’s future financial condition and performance are identified in filings with the SEC which are available on theSEC’s website at www.sec.gov. CCEP does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, futureevents, or otherwise, except as required under applicable rules, laws and regulations. CCEP assumes no responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any forward-lookingstatements. Any or all of the forward-looking statements contained in this document and in any other of CCEP’s respective public statements may prove to be incorrect.
RECONCILIATION TO GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATIONThe following document includes certain alternative performance measures, or non-GAAP performance measures. Refer to pages 22 – 28 of our 2018 Integrated Report issued on 14 March 2019, pages 14 – 21 of our 2017 Annual Report issued on 15 March 2018, and pages 14-18 of our 2016 Annual Report issued on 11 April 2017, which detail our non-GAAP performance measures and reconciles, where applicable, our 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 results as reported under IFRS to the non-GAAP performance measures included in this presentation. For 2015 and 2016, as included within our 2016 Annual Report, we have given effect to the merger as if it had occurred at the beginning of the periods presented. This presentation also includes certain forward looking non-GAAP financial information. We are not able to reconcile forward looking non-GAAP information to reported measures without unreasonable efforts because it is not possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual items that may impact comparability throughout 2019.
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MERGER IN 2016 Creating Scale and the World’s Largest Bottler By Revenue
Revenue and operating profit are comparable (non-GAAP performance measure, refer to slide 2); adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP performance measure, refer to slide 2). FMCG = Fast Moving Consumer Goods. NARTD = Non-Alcoholic Ready-To-Drink. to *Iceland was acquired in July 2016.
2018 Revenue of €11.5BN, Adjusted EBITDA of €2.1BN & Operating Profit of €1.6BN (13.7% Operating Margin)
Geographic Expansion with Operations in 13 Countries
24k Employees serving 1M Customer Outlets where,collectively, over 300M Consumers can enjoy our drinks
One of the Largest FMCG Sales Forces in Europewith ~6K Strong Commercial Team & 1M Coolers
ICELAND*
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NARTD is big (€98bn)1, well positioned and set to grow at 2-3% CAGR (€30bn) 2 over the next 10 years
10YEARS
SUMMARY
We have the scale (300m consumers, 1m coolers, 6,000 sales force) & we are market leader (c.28% category share)1
We are more aligned than ever before with TCCC
Mid-term annual objectives including low single digit revenue growth & mid single digit operating profit growth (20bps margin expansion pa)
Annual targets
Strong focus on free cash flow generation (at least €1bn per annum) and solid balance sheet (ND2E 2.5X-3.0X)
Driving sustainable shareholder returns: 50% dividend payout ratio & €1.5bn share buyback(€907m YTD19 of the €1bn in 2019)
€
1 Value share, combination of Global Data FY2017 for AFH Channels, Nielsen FY2017 data for Home Channels, rounded2 CCEP internal estimates, rounded
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TRADEMARK OWNERS
CONCENTRATE SUPPLY
BRAND & PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
CONSUMER MARKETING
PRODUCT MANUFACTURING
SALES & DISTRIBUTION
CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT
IN-OUTLET EXECUTION & LOCAL MARKETING
SHARED VISION TO DRIVE GROWTH, SHARED
MOVE FROM VOLUME TO VALUE
ALIGNED FINANCIAL INCENTIVES
NEW PROFIT SHARING MODEL TO DEVELOP NEW BRANDS
CCEP SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTING TOWARDS
TCCC’S OPERATING INCOME ~25%
TCCC HAS 19% OWNERSHIP IN CCEP WITH BOARD
REPRESENTATION
Strong Alignment with THE COCA-COLA COMPANY
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66
SIZE of the Prize…
Revenueto grow at a
2% to 3% CAGR
(2017-2028) vs 1.1% (2010-2017)
Volumeto grow at a
0.5% to 1.5%CAGR
(2017-2028) vs 0.6% (2010-2017)
CCEP Markets
by 2028(Cumulative NARTD incremental revenue
opportunity)
+ bn
CCEP internal estimates; Total NARTD Retail Sales Value
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Continued growth insparkling
0.5% - 1%
3% - 4%
4% - 5%
6% - 7%
9% - 10%
10% – 11%
2017-2028 CAGR2
2017 CCEP category share1
~60%
~5%
~20%
~5%
~0%
~0%
0.3%
1.3%
8.9%
6.3%
6.0%
11.3%
2010-2017 CAGR2
41
38
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8
5
3
2028€bn
AND GROWING ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS
NCBto grow
from 63% ofthe market
to 67%
Water
Energy
RTD Tea
Plant Based
RTD Coffee
SSD
Other 21 0% - 1% ~10%n/a
1.1% 2% -3% ~28%
1 Value share, combination of Global Data FY2017 for AFH Channels, Nielsen FY2017 data for Home Channels, rounded2 CCEP internal estimates, roundedRTD = Ready-to-Drink; NCB = Non Carbonated Beverages; Other = juices and sport
€98bn2017
€30bn2018-2028 increase
€128bn2028
21
1
2
4
7
27
36
2
3
4
5
11
5
TOTAL
2017 (€bn)1 2018 – 2028 increase (€bn)2
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Opportunities remain WITHIN sparklingC L A S S I C C O L A
S P A R K L I N G F L A V O U R S
L I G H T C O L A S
M I X E R S
32%VALUE SHARE
Drive Value through package innovation
81%VALUE SHARE
Build On Successthrough innovation, reformulation & adult sparkling
Lead Segment through innovation & new flavours
Differentiate through premiumisation & new flavours
66%VALUE SHARE
11%VALUE SHARE
Nielsen MAT December 2018 (measured channels only)
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c
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
SSD LPET SSD Glass SSD Mini Can SSD Can Energy Water RTDCoffee/Plant
based
RTD Tea Small PET
CCEP Average
0.5%
2.5%3.0%
3.5%
2.5% 2.5%
2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19
Average revenue per unit case1 (indexed) YoY growth2 in revenue per unit case
LPET = Large PET; RTD = Ready-to-Drink, Priority small packs = PET <1Litre + Glass <1Litre + Cans < 33cl1 CCEP average revenue per unit case by product type as a percentage of CCEP average revenue per unit case, FY 20182 CCEP revenue per unit case growth, on a comparable and fx neutral basis, excluding the impact of incremental soft drinks taxes (non GAAP measure – refer to slide 2)
Consistent Revenue Per Case Growth
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BIG CHANNEL Growth Opportunity
1 Nielsen FY 20172 Global Data FY 2017; HoReCa is Hotel/Restaurant/Café; QSR is
Quick Serve Restaurants; Convenience includes Convenience Stores & Food To Go; Global Data excludes Disco/Bar/Night Club, Kiosks/tobacco/newsagents & Travel/Transportation
3 CCEP internal estimates, rounded. Forecasts not available for Petrol or At work/Institutional
AFH = Away From Home channel
2017 NARTD VALUE MIX
CCEP AFH Volume
Outpaced Home
by 70bps in 2018
2018-2021 NARTDCAGR FORECAST3
Hyper/Supermarket1 36%
Discounter1 10%
HoReCa2 27%
Leisure2 8%
QSR2 7%
Convenience2 6%
Petrol2 4%At work/Institutional2, 3%
+2%
+6%
+4%
+6%
+4%+5%
46%Home (CCEP 57%)
54%AFH
(CCEP 43%)
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Accelerated Investment in Coolers & Front Line
NET COOLER PLACEMENTS (‘000) UNRIVALLED FRONT LINE:FIELD SALES VISITS PER DAY
812 14 16
2016 2017 2018 Target
Adding more feet
on the street
Incubator model for
new products
25% AFH monthly
coverage (vs 9% in
2016)
3452
66 69
2016 2017 2018 2019E
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Summary Mid Term Annual Objectives & 2019 Guidance
Revenue Growth L O W S I N G L E D I G I T c . 3 %
Comparable Operating Profit Growth M I D S I N G L E D I G I T c . 6 %
Free Cash Flow A T L E A S T € 1 B N P A € 1 . 1 B N
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA: 2 . 5 X – 3 . 0 X 2 . 5 X – 3 . 0 X
ROIC c . + 4 0 B P S P A c . + 4 0 B P S
Diluted EPS Growth M I D S I N G L E D I G I T c . 1 0 %
CAPEX c . 5 % N S R c . 5 % N S R
Dividend ~ 5 0 % P A Y O U T R A T I O ~ 5 0 % P A Y O U T R A T I O
Objectives for revenue, operating profit, and diluted EPS are comparable and fx-neutral (non-GAAP performance measures, refer to slide 2); Mid term EPS growth excludes share buyback; 2019 EPS guidance assumes 2019 share buyback of €1BN; Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, Free Cash Flow. Dividend payout ratio and ROIC are non-GAAP performance measures – refer to slide 2; Guidance for 2019 revenue growth excludes the impact of soft drinks taxes of c.1%
MID TERM 2019 GUIDANCE
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Near term focus on price & mix
Expect more normalisedbalance from 2020
COMING FROM:
AFH to outpace Home
Growth in small & premium priority packs
More efficient promotional activity
COMING FROM:
Segmentation & Diversification
Broad innovation portfolio
All driving higher transactions vs volume
Consumer pricing is at the discretion of the retailer
Volume
Price/Mix
How We Think About Our Low Single Digit Revenue Growth
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INTEGRATED SUSTAINABILITY PLAN ALIGNED WITH TCCC
Global Coca-Cola System Targets
Launched Jan 2018
Launched Nov 2017
Total of 21 targeted Actions
More choice.More information.Less sugar.
Our packaging.Our resource.
Protect.Reduce.Replenish.
Halve emissions.Renewable electricity.
A force for good.For everyone.
Sourcing sustainably.Sourcing responsibly.
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ACTION ON DRINKS50% No or low Calorie: At 45%More Choice. More Information. Less Sugar
186 products1
reformulated to reduce sugar.
160k tonnes of sugar removed from our drinks since 2010(16% reduction in sugar per litre since 2010)
1. Since 2010.2. Total CCEP 2018 Sales. Does not include coffee, alcohol, beer or freestyle. Low calorie
beverages ≤20kcal/100ml. Zero calorie beverages <4 kcal/100ml.
435 low and no calorie drinks introduced in the market since 2010
45% of our drinks, by volumes, are low or no calorie2.
GB at 65%2
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100%Recyclability
100%Collection
50%Recycled
PET
ACTION ON PACKAGINGOn Track to Deliver Our Packaging Commitments but Need to Go Faster
By 2025 By 2025 By 2023
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MOVING 100% OF OUR MULTIPACK CANS TO BOARD
TRIALLING 50% RECYCLED CONTENT FOR SHRINK
NEW SPRITE PACKAGING
1. Year End 2018
ACTION ON PACKAGING100% Recyclability on Primary Packaging: at 98%1
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ACTIVELY SUPPORTING WELL-DESIGNED LEGISLATION & FOCUSING ON INNOVATION TO DRIVE HIGHER COLLECTION RATES
DEPOSIT LAW BILL No. 869 / XIII / 3ª (PAN) AND PUBLISHED ON REPUBLIC
DIARY LAW Nº 69/2018
1 Year End 2018. Represents an aggregated number, based on packaging collection rates by material in each of our markets which is then applied to our own packaging volumes. The way that packaging collection rates are calculated may differ across our markets and therefore this aggregated number should be treated as an estimate.
ACTION ON PACKAGING100% Collection: At 74%1
19DRS = deposit return schemeNO = Norway, DE = Germany
ACTION ON PACKAGINGWell-Designed DRS
Run by not-for-profit company owned by producers & retailers
National scale, underpinned by legislation
We• Know what works e.g. NO, DE• Are part of the dialogue with
local & national stakeholders• Are aligned with TCCC
Good financial & fraud control
Easy to use with accessible return points
Deposit at point of sale
Set up costs covered by retailers (reimbursed for hosting return points) & producers
Running costs covered by sale of materials, unredeemed deposits &
producer fees
Includes at least all PET & can packaging€
€
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Additional capacity coming on stream via our strategic rPET suppliers
Strategic partnerships withenhanced recycling firms
1. Year End 2018
On track for 50% rPET by 2025; will achieve 50% rPET in GB, SE & NL by 2020.
Honest, Smartwater & Chaudfontaine to transition to 100% rPET3 by 2020
ACTION ON PACKAGING50% rPET: At 28%1
CCEP One of BiggestPurchasers of rPET,at 60,000t in 2019
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‘THIS IS FORWARD’ SUSTAINABILITY PLAN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS BEYONDPACKAGING
50% absolute reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions versus 2010
100% of the electricity purchased in 2018 was from renewable sources
160k tonnes of sugar removed from our drinks since 2010(16% reduction in sugar per litre since 2010)
11% reduction in water use ratio since 2010
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APPENDICES
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Manufacturing1
15%
Taxes & Other1
10%
Commodities1
25%
Concentrate, Finished Goods
50%
COST OF GOODS: 2019 GUIDANCE
COGSPer UC2
up ~3.0%
MIX EFFECT
==++
1. Rounded to nearest 5%.2. COGS/UC growth is comparable and fx-neutral and excludes incremental soft drinks taxes of approximately 1.5% (non-GAAP performance measure - refer to slide 2).
Anticipate 2019 increase of 2-3%
(2019 Mostly hedged) 1
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IR CONTACTS [email protected]
SARAH WILLETTVICE [email protected]
CLAIRE MICHAELASSOCIATE [email protected]
JOE COLLINSSENIOR [email protected]
UPCOMING EVENTS
13 FEBRUARY 2020: FY 2019