Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019...

24
1 1 INVESTOR RELATIONS Autumn 2019

Transcript of Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019...

Page 1: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

11

INVESTOR RELATIONSAutumn 2019

Page 2: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

2

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTSThis document contains statements, estimates or projections that constitute “forward-looking statements” concerning the financial condition, performance, results, strategy and objectivesof Coca-Cola European Partners plc and its subsidiaries (together “CCEP” or the “Group”). Generally, the words “believe,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “project,” “plan,”“seek,” “may,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “might,” “will,” “forecast,” “outlook,” “guidance,” “possible,” “potential,” “predict,” “objective” and similar expressions identify forward-lookingstatements, which generally are not historical in nature.

Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from CCEP’s historical experience and present expectations or projections. As aresult, undue reliance should not be placed on forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. These risks include but are not limited to those setforth in the “Risk Factors” section of the 2018 Annual Report on Form 20-F, including the statements under the following headings: Changing consumer preferences and the health impactof soft drinks (such as sugar alternatives); Legal and regulatory intervention (such as the development of regulations regarding packaging and taxes); Packaging and plastics;Competitiveness and transformation; Cyber and social engineering attacks; The market (such as customer consolidation and route to market); Economic and political conditions (such ascontinuing developments in relation to the UK’s exit from the EU, political instability in Catalonia, “Gilets Jaunes” protest movement and demonstrations in France); The relationship withTCCC and other franchisors; Product quality; and Other risks.

Due to these risks, CCEP’s actual future results, dividend payments, and capital and leverage ratios may differ materially from the plans, goals, expectations and guidance set out inCCEP’s forward-looking statements. Additional risks that may impact CCEP’s future financial condition and performance are identified in filings with the SEC which are available on theSEC’s website at www.sec.gov. CCEP does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, futureevents, or otherwise, except as required under applicable rules, laws and regulations. CCEP assumes no responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any forward-lookingstatements. Any or all of the forward-looking statements contained in this document and in any other of CCEP’s respective public statements may prove to be incorrect.

RECONCILIATION TO GAAP FINANCIAL INFORMATIONThe following document includes certain alternative performance measures, or non-GAAP performance measures. Refer to pages 22 – 28 of our 2018 Integrated Report issued on 14 March 2019, pages 14 – 21 of our 2017 Annual Report issued on 15 March 2018, and pages 14-18 of our 2016 Annual Report issued on 11 April 2017, which detail our non-GAAP performance measures and reconciles, where applicable, our 2018, 2017, 2016 and 2015 results as reported under IFRS to the non-GAAP performance measures included in this presentation. For 2015 and 2016, as included within our 2016 Annual Report, we have given effect to the merger as if it had occurred at the beginning of the periods presented. This presentation also includes certain forward looking non-GAAP financial information. We are not able to reconcile forward looking non-GAAP information to reported measures without unreasonable efforts because it is not possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual items that may impact comparability throughout 2019.

Page 3: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

3

MERGER IN 2016 Creating Scale and the World’s Largest Bottler By Revenue

Revenue and operating profit are comparable (non-GAAP performance measure, refer to slide 2); adjusted EBITDA (a non-GAAP performance measure, refer to slide 2). FMCG = Fast Moving Consumer Goods. NARTD = Non-Alcoholic Ready-To-Drink. to *Iceland was acquired in July 2016.

2018 Revenue of €11.5BN, Adjusted EBITDA of €2.1BN & Operating Profit of €1.6BN (13.7% Operating Margin)

Geographic Expansion with Operations in 13 Countries

24k Employees serving 1M Customer Outlets where,collectively, over 300M Consumers can enjoy our drinks

One of the Largest FMCG Sales Forces in Europewith ~6K Strong Commercial Team & 1M Coolers

ICELAND*

Page 4: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

4

NARTD is big (€98bn)1, well positioned and set to grow at 2-3% CAGR (€30bn) 2 over the next 10 years

10YEARS

SUMMARY

We have the scale (300m consumers, 1m coolers, 6,000 sales force) & we are market leader (c.28% category share)1

We are more aligned than ever before with TCCC

Mid-term annual objectives including low single digit revenue growth & mid single digit operating profit growth (20bps margin expansion pa)

Annual targets

Strong focus on free cash flow generation (at least €1bn per annum) and solid balance sheet (ND2E 2.5X-3.0X)

Driving sustainable shareholder returns: 50% dividend payout ratio & €1.5bn share buyback(€907m YTD19 of the €1bn in 2019)

1 Value share, combination of Global Data FY2017 for AFH Channels, Nielsen FY2017 data for Home Channels, rounded2 CCEP internal estimates, rounded

Page 5: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

5

TRADEMARK OWNERS

CONCENTRATE SUPPLY

BRAND & PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT

CONSUMER MARKETING

PRODUCT MANUFACTURING

SALES & DISTRIBUTION

CUSTOMER MANAGEMENT

IN-OUTLET EXECUTION & LOCAL MARKETING

SHARED VISION TO DRIVE GROWTH, SHARED

MOVE FROM VOLUME TO VALUE

ALIGNED FINANCIAL INCENTIVES

NEW PROFIT SHARING MODEL TO DEVELOP NEW BRANDS

CCEP SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTING TOWARDS

TCCC’S OPERATING INCOME ~25%

TCCC HAS 19% OWNERSHIP IN CCEP WITH BOARD

REPRESENTATION

Strong Alignment with THE COCA-COLA COMPANY

5

Page 6: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

66

SIZE of the Prize…

Revenueto grow at a

2% to 3% CAGR

(2017-2028) vs 1.1% (2010-2017)

Volumeto grow at a

0.5% to 1.5%CAGR

(2017-2028) vs 0.6% (2010-2017)

CCEP Markets

by 2028(Cumulative NARTD incremental revenue

opportunity)

+ bn

CCEP internal estimates; Total NARTD Retail Sales Value

Page 7: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

7

Continued growth insparkling

0.5% - 1%

3% - 4%

4% - 5%

6% - 7%

9% - 10%

10% – 11%

2017-2028 CAGR2

2017 CCEP category share1

~60%

~5%

~20%

~5%

~0%

~0%

0.3%

1.3%

8.9%

6.3%

6.0%

11.3%

2010-2017 CAGR2

41

38

12

8

5

3

2028€bn

AND GROWING ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS

NCBto grow

from 63% ofthe market

to 67%

Water

Energy

RTD Tea

Plant Based

RTD Coffee

SSD

Other 21 0% - 1% ~10%n/a

1.1% 2% -3% ~28%

1 Value share, combination of Global Data FY2017 for AFH Channels, Nielsen FY2017 data for Home Channels, rounded2 CCEP internal estimates, roundedRTD = Ready-to-Drink; NCB = Non Carbonated Beverages; Other = juices and sport

€98bn2017

€30bn2018-2028 increase

€128bn2028

21

1

2

4

7

27

36

2

3

4

5

11

5

TOTAL

2017 (€bn)1 2018 – 2028 increase (€bn)2

Page 8: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

8

Opportunities remain WITHIN sparklingC L A S S I C C O L A

S P A R K L I N G F L A V O U R S

L I G H T C O L A S

M I X E R S

32%VALUE SHARE

Drive Value through package innovation

81%VALUE SHARE

Build On Successthrough innovation, reformulation & adult sparkling

Lead Segment through innovation & new flavours

Differentiate through premiumisation & new flavours

66%VALUE SHARE

11%VALUE SHARE

Nielsen MAT December 2018 (measured channels only)

Page 9: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

9

c

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

SSD LPET SSD Glass SSD Mini Can SSD Can Energy Water RTDCoffee/Plant

based

RTD Tea Small PET

CCEP Average

0.5%

2.5%3.0%

3.5%

2.5% 2.5%

2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19

Average revenue per unit case1 (indexed) YoY growth2 in revenue per unit case

LPET = Large PET; RTD = Ready-to-Drink, Priority small packs = PET <1Litre + Glass <1Litre + Cans < 33cl1 CCEP average revenue per unit case by product type as a percentage of CCEP average revenue per unit case, FY 20182 CCEP revenue per unit case growth, on a comparable and fx neutral basis, excluding the impact of incremental soft drinks taxes (non GAAP measure – refer to slide 2)

Consistent Revenue Per Case Growth

Page 10: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

10

BIG CHANNEL Growth Opportunity

1 Nielsen FY 20172 Global Data FY 2017; HoReCa is Hotel/Restaurant/Café; QSR is

Quick Serve Restaurants; Convenience includes Convenience Stores & Food To Go; Global Data excludes Disco/Bar/Night Club, Kiosks/tobacco/newsagents & Travel/Transportation

3 CCEP internal estimates, rounded. Forecasts not available for Petrol or At work/Institutional

AFH = Away From Home channel

2017 NARTD VALUE MIX

CCEP AFH Volume

Outpaced Home

by 70bps in 2018

2018-2021 NARTDCAGR FORECAST3

Hyper/Supermarket1 36%

Discounter1 10%

HoReCa2 27%

Leisure2 8%

QSR2 7%

Convenience2 6%

Petrol2 4%At work/Institutional2, 3%

+2%

+6%

+4%

+6%

+4%+5%

46%Home (CCEP 57%)

54%AFH

(CCEP 43%)

10

Page 11: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

11

Accelerated Investment in Coolers & Front Line

NET COOLER PLACEMENTS (‘000) UNRIVALLED FRONT LINE:FIELD SALES VISITS PER DAY

812 14 16

2016 2017 2018 Target

Adding more feet

on the street

Incubator model for

new products

25% AFH monthly

coverage (vs 9% in

2016)

3452

66 69

2016 2017 2018 2019E

Page 12: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

12

Summary Mid Term Annual Objectives & 2019 Guidance

Revenue Growth L O W S I N G L E D I G I T c . 3 %

Comparable Operating Profit Growth M I D S I N G L E D I G I T c . 6 %

Free Cash Flow A T L E A S T € 1 B N P A € 1 . 1 B N

Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA: 2 . 5 X – 3 . 0 X 2 . 5 X – 3 . 0 X

ROIC c . + 4 0 B P S P A c . + 4 0 B P S

Diluted EPS Growth M I D S I N G L E D I G I T c . 1 0 %

CAPEX c . 5 % N S R c . 5 % N S R

Dividend ~ 5 0 % P A Y O U T R A T I O ~ 5 0 % P A Y O U T R A T I O

Objectives for revenue, operating profit, and diluted EPS are comparable and fx-neutral (non-GAAP performance measures, refer to slide 2); Mid term EPS growth excludes share buyback; 2019 EPS guidance assumes 2019 share buyback of €1BN; Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA, Free Cash Flow. Dividend payout ratio and ROIC are non-GAAP performance measures – refer to slide 2; Guidance for 2019 revenue growth excludes the impact of soft drinks taxes of c.1%

MID TERM 2019 GUIDANCE

Page 13: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

13

Near term focus on price & mix

Expect more normalisedbalance from 2020

COMING FROM:

AFH to outpace Home

Growth in small & premium priority packs

More efficient promotional activity

COMING FROM:

Segmentation & Diversification

Broad innovation portfolio

All driving higher transactions vs volume

Consumer pricing is at the discretion of the retailer

Volume

Price/Mix

How We Think About Our Low Single Digit Revenue Growth

Page 14: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

14

INTEGRATED SUSTAINABILITY PLAN ALIGNED WITH TCCC

Global Coca-Cola System Targets

Launched Jan 2018

Launched Nov 2017

Total of 21 targeted Actions

More choice.More information.Less sugar.

Our packaging.Our resource.

Protect.Reduce.Replenish.

Halve emissions.Renewable electricity.

A force for good.For everyone.

Sourcing sustainably.Sourcing responsibly.

Page 15: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

15

ACTION ON DRINKS50% No or low Calorie: At 45%More Choice. More Information. Less Sugar

186 products1

reformulated to reduce sugar.

160k tonnes of sugar removed from our drinks since 2010(16% reduction in sugar per litre since 2010)

1. Since 2010.2. Total CCEP 2018 Sales. Does not include coffee, alcohol, beer or freestyle. Low calorie

beverages ≤20kcal/100ml. Zero calorie beverages <4 kcal/100ml.

435 low and no calorie drinks introduced in the market since 2010

45% of our drinks, by volumes, are low or no calorie2.

GB at 65%2

Page 16: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

16

100%Recyclability

100%Collection

50%Recycled

PET

ACTION ON PACKAGINGOn Track to Deliver Our Packaging Commitments but Need to Go Faster

By 2025 By 2025 By 2023

Page 17: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

17

MOVING 100% OF OUR MULTIPACK CANS TO BOARD

TRIALLING 50% RECYCLED CONTENT FOR SHRINK

NEW SPRITE PACKAGING

1. Year End 2018

ACTION ON PACKAGING100% Recyclability on Primary Packaging: at 98%1

Page 18: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

18

ACTIVELY SUPPORTING WELL-DESIGNED LEGISLATION & FOCUSING ON INNOVATION TO DRIVE HIGHER COLLECTION RATES

DEPOSIT LAW BILL No. 869 / XIII / 3ª (PAN) AND PUBLISHED ON REPUBLIC

DIARY LAW Nº 69/2018

1 Year End 2018. Represents an aggregated number, based on packaging collection rates by material in each of our markets which is then applied to our own packaging volumes. The way that packaging collection rates are calculated may differ across our markets and therefore this aggregated number should be treated as an estimate.

ACTION ON PACKAGING100% Collection: At 74%1

Page 19: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

19DRS = deposit return schemeNO = Norway, DE = Germany

ACTION ON PACKAGINGWell-Designed DRS

Run by not-for-profit company owned by producers & retailers

National scale, underpinned by legislation

We• Know what works e.g. NO, DE• Are part of the dialogue with

local & national stakeholders• Are aligned with TCCC

Good financial & fraud control

Easy to use with accessible return points

Deposit at point of sale

Set up costs covered by retailers (reimbursed for hosting return points) & producers

Running costs covered by sale of materials, unredeemed deposits &

producer fees

Includes at least all PET & can packaging€

Page 20: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

20

Additional capacity coming on stream via our strategic rPET suppliers

Strategic partnerships withenhanced recycling firms

1. Year End 2018

On track for 50% rPET by 2025; will achieve 50% rPET in GB, SE & NL by 2020.

Honest, Smartwater & Chaudfontaine to transition to 100% rPET3 by 2020

ACTION ON PACKAGING50% rPET: At 28%1

CCEP One of BiggestPurchasers of rPET,at 60,000t in 2019

Page 21: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

21

‘THIS IS FORWARD’ SUSTAINABILITY PLAN CONTINUES TO PROGRESS BEYONDPACKAGING

50% absolute reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions versus 2010

100% of the electricity purchased in 2018 was from renewable sources

160k tonnes of sugar removed from our drinks since 2010(16% reduction in sugar per litre since 2010)

11% reduction in water use ratio since 2010

Page 22: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

22

APPENDICES

Page 23: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

23

Manufacturing1

15%

Taxes & Other1

10%

Commodities1

25%

Concentrate, Finished Goods

50%

COST OF GOODS: 2019 GUIDANCE

COGSPer UC2

up ~3.0%

MIX EFFECT

==++

1. Rounded to nearest 5%.2. COGS/UC growth is comparable and fx-neutral and excludes incremental soft drinks taxes of approximately 1.5% (non-GAAP performance measure - refer to slide 2).

Anticipate 2019 increase of 2-3%

(2019 Mostly hedged) 1

Page 24: Investor NDR deck - October 2019 · Microsoft PowerPoint - Investor NDR deck - October 2019 10/24/2019 11:30:54 AM ...

24

IR CONTACTS [email protected]

SARAH WILLETTVICE [email protected]

CLAIRE MICHAELASSOCIATE [email protected]

JOE COLLINSSENIOR [email protected]

UPCOMING EVENTS

13 FEBRUARY 2020: FY 2019