Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible

7/30/2019 Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible

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InvestmentOutlook December

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3investment outlook - december 2012

Contents

I Sagy

I..........................................................................................................................5

Say...............................................................................................................................6

Ma ay ...................................................................................................................8

Pf ay: M I Pga................................ ..........

Th: Cha wg a aag ............................. .................................. . 4

Th: G g wh w h ............................... .................... 8

N q ............................. ................................ ................................. ....................

Ga q g h Cy M............................................................... 4

Fx ................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 8

Hg f ................................ ................................. ................................ ..................... 3

Ra a ............................ ................................ ................................. ............................ 3

Pa qy .............................. ................................ ................................. ..................... 34C .............................. ................................ ................................. ...................... 36

C ............................ ................................. ................................ ............................. 38


4/39

4 investment outlook - december 2012

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p q. Aay py y SEB ay h p q qy-a f pa f whh hy p a a.

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I Sagy


5/39


Amid problem-filled political processes, the eco-nomic recovery has been pushed into the back-

ground. Recession risks are down sharply and there

is a growing likelihood of better times ahead.

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hag -f, hw. A ay a g ha

w , a a f pp hag,

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ay f a h q. I ay

h f .

Rgh w w xy pa pa p a

way gay: a fia aag a h U

Sa a ahp hag Cha. Wha g

ha h a a g aga a ap f

g y. Th ay a ha f pa

a y h j aay w, gwh ay a-a a ay h apa a wh a a a h

a f wa apa a a agy

f. W fa a g a hagg p aha,

a h hp f a gh f.

T x, w a w apa a a ag

. Capa flw a f (xp), h

gaay ah ha aaa (hap). Faa

a h ha ha apa. Phap

agg ha h a g way pa f h w ha

h whh f ha a

g a, a ha aaga. Th

z , US hh a h Ch

a a xap f h . If h a af h ay g yg h US a Cha a

h a h, h apa w gaay

pa .

I h f Investment Outlook, w f Cha,

g a a f a a a w y

ga q . Cha w a f a gfi-

a pp f ga gwh a xy aa f

h ap f h q a .

Tay h f fla a a f pa, pay

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aa h , whh w gh fa . Y hq a, a h p g p wh g.

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f h a ga f h y. Th a

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p h wh qaa a f a

faa, f h a a

h a f pf aa .

O ag ha h w pay g -

wa a p f fa gwh, whh w ha

hapy a. W f a h ha a pay w

w yp f : , q

gaay a wy, wh a awa ha w a w

f p, wh h aw

hans peterson

CIO Private Banking

and Global Head of Investment Strategy

The dawn is discernible


6/39


Say

*

*Forecasts are based on the SEB House View and our economic growth scenario(see page 8).

Reasoning

11% 16% in the short term: The economic picture has bright-

ened, but the biggest driving force behind the year's stock market

upturn is expectations about the world's central banks.in the long term: The markets that still appear to have the greatest

potential are emerging markets and countries and regions that will

grow on their own power. Such characteristics as a large domestic

market and decoupling from problem areas are preferred.

2 % % F , h US Fa R a Epa Ca

Ba ha pp qy a h ag y a, ag

a w fla w, ha fh ag

aaa. NEGATIVE h g wa g

OECD . Pha f g

a gag a w y, whh a a ha

w ay ay pa. Rg py a w fla

xpa gh a ha Sw' Ra

w wg y a D a

Fay . h g wa pa: Th g pfa w ha h pa

g w pay a h a gh -

y pa h ay.

% % h g : W aa ha C L/S a

Sya Ma ag g a pf a a

, fyg hg. W xp a ffi -

f h a a, w f zgzag

pa a h a f.

Rl 3 .% % Pay a a aa a w a -. h g : Maj ff

fig w pay a ay a w a a-

a a fh h a. Th REIT

a g pf gy g .

% % Th g a yg a a (NAV) wa -fl p f pa qy pa g h a-

. h g : Th f a h-

ha a a aa ha , a g f

aa ag wh a gwh pp a -

g- a gwh.

4 % % Gpa wh h pa hapy f p -a, p f h a p a a xp

a a a h a ya f w.

: Aag gwh Cha a hgh

a a p. W h y a xp a a

p a p hgh ya. NEGATIVE

wa ga p, whh a hgh, a ag ha

x wah p h p, p h

fa.

5 % % h g wa wh

g faa. Lw aa a p

a a gwh ffa w h EM ph a OECD

a ag fa f EM .

1 The forecast refers to the global stock market. 2 The forecast refers to a basket of investment grade and high yield corporate bonds. 3 The forecast refers to the REIT

market. 4 The forecast refers to a basket in which the energy, industrial metal and precious metal categories are equally weighted. 5 The forecast refers to the alpha-gener-

ating capacity of a foreign exchange trading manager.


7/39


Say

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2 00 3 2 00 4 2 00 5 2 00 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 2 00 9 2 01 0 2 01 1 2 01 2

Fixed income Hedge funds Real es tate

Private equity Commodities Currencies

Equities

Fixed incom eHedge fundsReal estate

Private equity

CurrenciesCommodities

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Expected volatility

Expected

return

Ha a a a h fwg :

Eq = MSCI AC W EUR

Fx = JP Mga Ga GBI EUR Hg

Hg f = HFRX Ga Hg F USD

Ra a = EPRA/NA-REIT EUR

Pa qy = LPX0 EUR

C = DJ UBS C TR EUR

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2008-11

2009-02

2009-05

2009-08

2009-12

2010-02

2010-05

2010-09

2010-12

2011-02

2011-05

2011-09

2011-12

2012-02

2012-05

2012-08

2012-11

Equities Fixed income Hedge funds Real estatePrivate equity Currencies Commodites

Fixed income Equities

Private equity

Commodities

Real estate

Hedge funds

Currencies

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Historical volatility

Historicalreturn

PLEASE NOTE: In August 2012 we changed real estate index from SEB PB Real Estate to EPRA/NA-REIT

Equities

Fixedincome

Hedgefunds

Realestate

Private

equity

Commodities

Currencies

Equities .

Fixed income -.4 .

Hedge funds .63 -.3 .

Real estate .83 -. .56 .

Private equity .86 -.33 .68 .88 .

Commodities .3 -. .68 .3 .4 .

Currencies -. . .8 -. -. .8 .


8/39

8

A period of decelerating world growth

looks set to be followed by a slow upturn

There are risks, but our forecast of a brighter

economic future is not in jeopardy

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Ba (ECB). Iaa f p, g

fia a fg a ha a, aj hag -

a h h h a g . Hgh py a a

a ww ha w a Gay a

pg pa ff a a ay h -

a f h y . US fia py a h- f

.

GDP gwh h US aa 2 p h h qa

a h hg a hw a g f a a y,

a hgh h p fi pa p. Lg afa g py, h g fia ff aa a-

y a ag a USD 00 ( p f GDP)

201 a pay a, -ghg w

p. Th w ff h fia haw a p

1. p f GDP x ya. Y h a a f a

wha gh US ha a fw h ag.

W p GDP gwh f ha 2 p h ya, a 2.

p 201 a 2.-.0 p 201. Th Fa R

Sp ah f a h f qaa ag (QE), -

g pha f gag-a , hw ha h -

a a payg ga a h a a a

fla. Fh pha f Tay (QE) a z

y a f a x p a h F pa.

Ia h z p wa g a-y f ah wh. Hh a qz y g py-

a w a ay a. Uay a h a

f h y hapg pa apa pg. W

xp GDP fa y ay 0. p h ya, aga 201

a gw y ha 1.0 p 201, h g fi-

aa a wha a ay h a wh

h ECB Ogh May Taa (OMT) g-

phag pga. OMT ha y , y

ha hp ph w wg f -h .

Th ECB w wa-a- . I y a y

a a 0.7 p h x p f ya. B ahgh

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w f.

Ahgh Bh GDP pp h EU ha h h qa,

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L. Fa ay py a pa. C wh

wa xp a ay haf f xp g h z

h w h a h yg y. W p aga

GDP h ya, wh gwh h ag f 1. p h 201

a 201. Th a h Ba f Ega ha a a a,

whh y fw h pg y a p-

ha p xpa , h BE w a y a

hag a 0. p f a x p.

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h . I Sw, h ay a fia py w

p pp. Nway w gwg gy ha

gh. Oa N GDP w a y ha 1. p

h ya, ha 1. p 201 a ha 2 p

201.

On the threshold of a better global economy

investment outlook - december 2012


9/39

9

Japa GDP y fa g h haf f 2012, ag

h hg w xp Cha. Th y hpg aagy af a p a pg. A wa gwh

a fla a pg h way f w -

a f h Ba f Japa, ay h f f -

pha. Th a g w, a a f

g fia . Japa ag h

jpay. W p GDP gwh w 2 p h ya, a 1

p x ya a ha 1. p 201.

GDP gwh ay Aa gg a w

h h qa wa aay fa ha h US a

Ep. G a w p pp 201.

W xp fla wha h a

xp f, fla p Aa gay w.

W f aj hf ay py g 201, ahgh

a f ay g ag y a wa

ya-.

Dp h a f qa, h f a

ha ag Cha ha a, jgg f xpy

g aa h a. W p GDP gwh f

ha 7. p h ya, a p 201 a ha

7. p 201. S fa, h ffia py p h -

ww ha , ag h hg h

hag pa ahp.

Ia pfa ha a fay wa, ha g f aa. GDP gwh aa ghy h

h qa, a y y f a

p. W xp GDP a y . p 2012,

a p 201 a ha p 201. Ifla

w ay hgh, ag xy f y a

w, w fla Ia x ya w h ag f

pw a .

F w ya, gwh ha wg La Aa. I 2012,

GDP h g f a a f j a

p . Tha aa pa-g

Aga, Baz a Ch, gwh y a a p

x ya a pay hgh 201. Th ya a x,fla w a p , wh h a fi

La Aa p fia w h a . Ta p -

h g w a a - p f GDP

201, a ha w pay a pa a

OECD .

Th haywgh f Ea (g Ca) Ep

Ra a Pa a w aff y h ga

ww, a hy a xp-p a ha

fay g p fia, hy ha p wh h z

ha Ea Epa . Th p-

ay ff f a a h pa f h g, wh

h Czh Rp, Hgay, Caa a Sa a

hwg wa pfa. O ya a hw ha

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h fla pp g. Ba f hgh Ra fla-

, h a a Mw w p ag y

a. Mawh Ph fla w fh, pg

f y a .

C hahy a ag gwh h

Ba , a xp pa y wy. Ifla w

a w Laa a Lhaa, hgh Ea. C

a fi w w Laa a w a Lhaa, whh w

a a ghy hgh g fi, Ea a Laa w

hw a ga fig h p fia. Laa j h z 201, a pa.

Af a ya ag f ay p , w f ga GDP

(aj f phag pw pa) gwg y wha

a p h ya, a . p 201 a

p 201. Wh gwh a h ag f . p a-

ay, h EM ph ay aha f h OECD , whh

a xp yay gwh f a 1--2 p

. I a, h w ww w a

2012, fw y a gaa pwg.

Ma ay


ISM PMI, United States, TotalJapan, NOMURA/JMMA PMI: COMPOSITE - MFG. & SERVICESMarkit PMI, Euro Zone, TotalMarkit/CIPS PMI, United Kingdom, Total

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Index

(diffusion)

35.0

37.5

40.0

42.5

45.0

47.5

50.0

52.5

55.0

57.5

60.0

During the 2008 economic crash and the 2009

recovery, major OECD countries followed similar

paths, but for the past couple of years the pattern

has changed. The economic dynamic has been much

better in the US and in part the UK, compared to

weakness in the euro zone and Japan. These differ-

ences are closely reflected in regional purchasing

manager expectations.

S: R Ew


10/39


Gradual shift in focus towards fundamentalsIn the Modern Investment programmes, we have long had a cautious approach to risk, mainly because

political manoeuvring, especially in Europe, has been the largest market-driving force which has resultedin low visibility. Our focus has been on maintaining sound risk, rather than on chasing the last percentages

of returns.

Our approach to risk-taking has not changed. We still expect events in the political arena to affect fi-

nancial markets, but as we wrote in the previous Investment Outlook (published on September 11, 2012),

we predict that market players will gradually let go of political issues and focus more on fundamentals.

Meanwhile, low interest rates and bond yields are forcing capital to seek out riskier assets in order to stay

abreast of inflation.

In Modern Growth we have increased the proportion of equities in order to move closer to the portfolios

more long-term return target, while reducing the duration risk in the fixed income sub-portfolio. We havealso increased the proportion of equities in Modern Aggressive. In both portfolios, we have meanwhile

switched managers in order to improve alpha potential. In Modern Protection, we have invested cash in

leveraged loans and high yield and supplemented our Absolute Return managers with a low risk mandate.

Pfli

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Equities Fixed income Hedge funds Real estate

Private equity Commodities Currencies

R O .Ha a a a h fwg: Eq = MSCI AC W EUR. Fx

= JP Mga Ga GBI EUR Hg. Hgf = HFRX Ga Hg F USD. Ra a

= EPRA/NA-REIT EUR. Pa qy = LPX EUR.C = DJ UBS C TR EUR. C-

= Baay Hg Cy Ta USD.

S: SEB


11/39


C pa ha pp ay h haf f

2012, gay g h pa wh hgh

ag ( ga) a h wh w ag

(hgh y) gay. O w ha h y g-

w ghy, h ag p gap a hgh

py W , p wh a

a h a Opa Tw, a y p

y a w . Th f apa

a ay aa f fla.

Wh y a w a , h f ga -

ag wh a . T a h,

a p xap.

Th xap py appa pa ,

hy ha a p ha g h p-

p a h pa f g a,

a ha a pay a ag h

a p wh a a w.

I M P, w ha a aj hag

a f wh w a

. I h ga g ( p f h p-

f), w y BBay I Ga L, whh

a a y a f a. Hgh y

xp, whh w ha p-wgh 12 p f h

p , ay ag a a h a-

hgh y.

A a h f h pf A R

aag, wh ha f aa a f flxy a

aaag f hag h y a hy aa

a a xp. H, w ha a a w

aag wh aa w pa h h

A R aag, wh h a ga

a 1-2 p ha f y. Th

w f A R a a wh a paf h a f hgh y.

Oa, h pf w p wh aa

a h a ga g f .

Pf ay: M I Pga

2%

1.5%

0%

0%

0%

19.5%

77%

0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Cash

Currencies

Commodities

Private equity

Real estate

Hedge funds

Fixed income

Equities

Previous CurrentS: SEB

A p , a g h

ya ha fi a a, wh a a

agg f ga a hgh y q wh

hgh y. I M Gwh, w ha h hghy a pay xp h h aa

-aj a y f -7 p .

I 2012, ay 0 p f h pf ha f

hgh y , whh ha fi gfiay f

hg pa. Th pa a a

ha g aha, w xp hgh y

a g a fa h ya, -7 p a aa

fa. Mawh w ha a ha

a, pay ha h ff f h Epa Ca

Ba (ECB) a a gaa pg f p. W ha

h gaay a h qy p f h pf

h qa h pf g-

ag f 7- p .

Eq w a f 2 p f M Gwh, p

f 17. Th p-wghg ag gg a

(+ p ), ga (+. p ) a N q (+0.

p ). T a -xp h y h, hq a a w a g wh aag wh

hgh gwh a pa ah ha y.

T h h pf a , h fix

-pf w awh a ( a

y) y pag p f hgh y wh 2 p

h a hgh y a 2 p ag a.

W ha a wh aag a w a

q, h a M Agg,

wh w a h a hag. I M Gwh w a

a fg wha aa a y

f xp a .

A -ya 100 a p a p f ,whh a ha a (a) a .

p . Th a ha f a 1 p-

ag p, h p f h fa y .. Mawh

w g a p f , whh a ha ha ya,

0.7 (100-. + = 100.7).

Ag a ha h ha a p f 2, a

aa g a a f a .7 p,

whh a ha a ghy hgh. A 1

p a a ha h p fa f

100 9.. E ag a h p, -

f h ya -2.7 (100-.7 +2 = 97.), ga.


12/39


Pf ay: M I Pga

6.5%

3.5%

2%

0%

0%

27.5%

32.5%

28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Cash

Currencies

Commodities

Private equity

Real estate

Hedge funds

Fixed income

Equities

Previous Current S: SEB

A a Pf

wgh

Exp Exp

C % C %

Ga q % .8 .3

EM q % .4 .8 3

N q % . 3 .3 4

EM % .3 4 . Hgh y % .8 .5 3

C % -. - .

C 4% . .

Hg f 8% . .

Cah % .

100% 6.7 100% 8.0 100%

Table 1: The first column shows the weight of

each asset class in the portfolio.Column 2 shows how many percentage points

each asset class contributes to overall ex-pected return and Column 3 expresses it in per

cent. Column 4 shows how many percentagepoints each asset class contributes to portfoliorisk (volatility). Column 5 shows this in per cent.

G wgh a fa f ah a a,

h pf ha a xp f .7 p a a

(ay) f p . I Ta 1, w ha aay hw h

ah a a h pf xp

a . Th fig a gh a h y a a

a f wh h pf a . F xap

hgh y, ag 27 p f h pf, a

f 27 p f xp a 1 p f .

M a ha q, ag 2 p

f h a pf, a f ha haf f xp

(1 p ) a (7 p ). Th a w a

yg h a ha f a a g f

, a ha h a a w a f a

0 p f h pf fla. Th ay

a , h x q aa g hpf g- ag f a 7- p .

Th aay a hw ha ah a aa

p, gg a a a a

h a a. Ia EM a xp

a p ga a, hw, w a

hg ff h a a a g f a p-wghg

f q. A p, w ha a a w f

a a wh a h wh a h pag f

h pf h.

A h a a a, h hg f -pf -

17 p xp a f a 9

p f . Th aa haa a

a f a wh h a a h pf.

B 2012, a 2011, h hg f -pf ha h-

a z a ha p xpa. W

ha h a a ph g aay, h

f whh a y p, ha y a a a hg f pf a py

pha CTA ag. Th aay a hw ha w

a a xp , w gay pf

h hgh EM ha a.


13/39


Ba M Agg g- j a

ha x h a a y, qpay a fa ga a a g f . A M

Gwh, h qa w ha gaay h pp-

f ha, f . p f h pf . p

. Of h pag p, 2 ha aa

ga ha a gg a. I gg

a, w a pg pha Aa, whh a

p ay 7 p f h pf.

W ha a a hag aag. I ga

q, w ha aw w f f w aag,

JO Ha Ga S a Tp Ga Opp-

. Bh f q wh pa f hgh ag

gwh. Th aag h ha g p f ffiy

2011 a 2012 wh apa ay p f

ha wh hgh y. O h h ha, hy

ha pf gy g p wh h a

ha f faa pay aa a

app, a g h h qa f 2012. I

p a , w ha h

a g Laa, whh w ha h a.

Oy Aga Iaa ha a ay a

xp Ep w pf py h

xp pfi g.

Egg a hg f h a g f:

Caga Eg, Ea Va Egg Ma, JO

Ha Egg Ma a Wa Ba Egg La-. R ay gfiay w aag a f

h ff y, hy ha a aay pf

h MSCI Egg Ma Ix h ya.

Aa qy xp f T Rw P Aa x Japa,

Cpa Caff Aa Apha a Cha AMC Cha Opp-

. Th f ha a gh ahp wh h x

ha pf ha ha a

a a g a f Aa hg. Th h w ha

flx aa wh a ha paa, h

a Aa p. Tgh hy ha ga pa f

g -pfa.

Cy xp hag a . p . Aga, w

ha hag aag, f Sh C a

V Ba C Tha Eha

C. L h fi w, h aag h a-

f f ah h hap xp-

a pfi y, a ha x-f

aag ha p hgh pa

y .

S fa h ya, h fix -pf ha gay

a h a ga q (+12 p ), ag

f a p f h pf a . UM Gwh w a pg f xp hgh y

wh a a p a agg-

pfi. Th -pf f 2 p hgh

y a 9 p EM .

A M Gwh, w a g a ph

aay f h hg -pf p y p-

a. Th a y p y a a

agg pf ha fi M Agg-

aa. A a fi p, w ha g h p

f pag CTA aag. W ha a

aa hg f y a p (-aa

q).

Af h -wghg, h pf ha a xp

f j . p a a (ay) f 11 p

. F aa a, y ga

hgh, ag w y a

a a f a gwg ga y (hgh a a w

pa), w ga a jfi.

Pf ay: M I Pga

2%

0%

3.5%

0%

0%

16%

32%

46.5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Cash

Currencies

Commodities

Private equity

Real estate

Hedge funds

Fixed income

Equities

Previous Current S: SEB


14/39

14

The period of gradually higher growth is over

Growth is trending downward in China

A mini-cyclical upswing may benefit Chinas

stock market

F h pa qa, h Ch y ha

ag. Th f wa aa h

a f 2011. I h h qa f 2012, G D

P (GDP) gwh w 7. p ya--ya,

pa 7. p h pg qa. W

a a a a Ch ha ag ha

aff ga a fa a w a fiaa

a a way. Th a h a Cha

fa py g h , wh a h w g.

Th Ch gwh 2010 ha h ya a

a a. Cya haw ga wh 1) xp

w h a aj OECD w hgh a

a p haa y g ay a

agg (h -h EU Cha ag x-

p a), 2) h Ch hg a wa

ag f h, ) Ch pa aw a

ga h , ) pfi gwh Cha

a ) Ch apa pg .

Dg h 200-2009 fiaa a , Cha ha

a ag p gap (py f p apay), h-

g gwh a ay fag fla. Ah p

wh a ag f , whh qy a h y

aa aga. Tay p gap fa a f

ha h a py wa f fla

aga hgh, a ffi a wg fia ha-

p y h pa afa w way.

Th Ch gwh a f a a a-

f ga/a fa: aa,

a, aa a gaa. Th, ,

ha f y a f ag a h

a-w pay . A h Cha xp-

gwh hp h W Ta Ogaa

(WTO) 2000. Fh, Cha wa a faa

ag p, wh a g ppy f a, hgh ag a

a w f p. Th a fa

ha h gaay pwf, a fl

h Cha aa GDP gwh f 11.7 p

200-2007 9.9 p 200-2011 a ha p 2012-201 (SEB fa).

Th pa g f gwh f

h p fa: a/ha apa, phya apa

a py (hfly w hgy ha aw ga

p p h w).

A ap ppy f a ha a pa g f

h Cha f gwh a, pay

aa a ga f h y aa

g. S 199 Cha aa ppa ha a

y a 20 p ya, wh 2/ g f a -

China is slowing and accelerating


During the first decade of the new millennium, GDP growth aver-

aged more than 10 per cent. For various structural reasons, trend

growth will gradually decelerate in the next few decades. In the

short term, however, a cyclical upswing in China is imminent.

S: Ma


15/39

15

ga f a aa. Th W Ba a ha h

f ha 1 pag p Ch GDP

gwh ah ya h.

Jgg f h a ww h a ga,

aa ppa gwh a a 1-

1 aay h x fi ya. Th pa-

y a a ppy a aa whh w

a f 0 p f a py Cha

a wa a h wa f w -

gwh h y.

Capa pg g p h f phya apa

a pag w- ha a pwf

gwh f Cha. A a ha f GDP, ha a f

j p 1990 a p a p.

Afiay w fiaa apa a pa a

f h ap xpa.

Th a (apa pg a a pag f

GDP) ha h g h pa p f

ya. Th a 1) h ag

f apa hg apa

y ha h, 2) a py p

pj ha a hg a

aa f apa, ) ay ha fi -

ay f pj a ) h a pa a

hf f apa pg a xp wa

pa p. Tay pa p a fy p f GDP, w f 7 p 1990.

I f h -aa f whh y

a a ah g p a ag a

h pag f gg pa pfi a, h ha f aa gg hh

a a h ag a a. I ,

ag hh wg w h ag a p-

ay q xpa a p f h a afy

a h f pa .

N-fa py Cha hgh j

aa p ay afag aa

g ha xp p, h a

, ag a whag fg h

f Cha. Dg 200-2011, aag py gwh

h fi- wa 9. p a h a

.9 p . I h w, aj pa a w

a f a a g py Cha

a.

D w a ga f ag aa

a h pay hf f h f f gwh

f y/apa pg/xp xp

p, h ha a gaa a

Cha py gwh: f a aag f . p

200-2007 7. p 200-2011. Th pa gwh

a Cha ha h fa ya.

Oh fa a ha h a f a h a f

gay g a ha xpa h hapha a ag pp f Ch xp g

w (w xp a gwh).

C: F a a a, h p f ga-

ay hgh gwh Cha . Gwh y

wwa g h x fw a.

Th f a GDP w h a w

a h a a f a a fag a f aa-

. Th f apa pg GDP w a

a h a ha ah a jfiay

hgh , wh h pa a hf h f- f gwh f apa pg a xp wa p-

a p. Py gwh Cha w gaay

w a h f f gwh hf f ha p

aay h a.

Cha GDP gwh a f a aa aag f j

a 9 p h 190 ha 10 p h

fi a f h w . A aa a

a h a aay ha h a w a

a aag f a 7 p 2010-2019 a - p

2020-2029. I h w, Ch gwh w hf

w ga w z p.

Th: Cha wg a aag


Since 2000, capital spending as a share of GDP in China has great-

ly increased due to economic policies that have prioritised export-

and investment-led growth. The ratio appears to have peaked,

however, and there are many indications that it will continue to fall

as the focus of growth shifts towards private consumption.

S: Ma


16/39

16

Dg h a y fi ya ( O N),

a pa afa Cha. Th ahp f

h g C Pay h f a fi ya ,

ay p a ay f ya. F h

aa pay ahp . Eay h fwg ya a

w g a ha f a a app.

Th ya 1h aa g f h C Payf Cha ga N a a f a w.

A 2/ f h y pa a a

g pa. A h p f h hahy h P

Sag C, whh wa f

, f wh fi a w. Th ag h

C a X Jpg, wh pag H Ja a ga

ay (a a p f Cha Mah 201), a L

Kqag, wh w pa W Jaa a p x

Mah.

Th ahp hag xp py ay aa

hag Cha py pay

w f h h aa wh a f agw f ff h Sag C. Ia, h

fi-ya pa y fw a p, -

pay g h fi ya f h w ahp. W xp

f f a a wha w a-

a gwh, wh ga pha pa p

a pha xp a apa pg.

Th pa hag ay a a a a

py x a h a ay fia

a, f hy a . Ah a f h

wa-a- appah wa h fia a ay p-

y ay ha h Ch a a a a

fay g, a ha h ah ha a f

h p 200-2009.

A ha , h g j a y ag f

(qa 7 p f GDP), whh h

-p f a fiaa aa. I

a, Ch ah a a a h

a a f h a, whh f ay

a ha a w app y ay

a phap ay.

Th y f h 200-2009 fiaa a -

wa a pp y a a qy

f h Pp Ba f Cha (PBC). A a ha f GDP,

g ha h f ha 100 p 200

12 p ay. My ppy (M2) a h pag

f -pfg a (NPL) ha a apy. Y

Ch hh ha y ; h a y

20 p f GDP, pa p h US a 9

p h UK.

Th a, h a fa pj

h Ch fia pp pay h a-

p a aay a a (a 2 p

f GDP) ha h a 200-2009. I a,

h yp f apa pg ha ah g a a

y a h pay ff a a h- a-

a py , hgh h pj a f ga p-

a g- p.

Th PBC ha a ay py h a-

, appay pa h q f a

a qy ( a). C ha h-

Th: Cha wg a aag


Viewed in retrospect, Chinese retail sales have essentially

fluctuated in response to general economic conditions. We nowforesee an upward trend for retailers, assuming that the focus of

economic growth shifts to the domestic market and household

consumption.

In response to the financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009,

the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) flooded the economy with

liquidity, causing the money supply to rise at record speed. Side

effects included a growing number of doubtful loans. Given this

background, PBoC policies are more cautious today.

S: Ma

S: Ma


17/39

17

Th: Cha wg a aag


Ag ha h Ch y ay ay 201, h y q a w a

a pa wh h w ha -p Cha gwh a y pf

w h a.

Ia a y . By a a,

ay Ch apa pg ha

pp h ahp hag.

C g, phaaa a a h-

gy, a a a afy, a

a pa pag p p-a a pp, .. ag p

f h f hh.

Eqy aa Cha a . Th p/

ag a f 201 (MSCI Cha Ix) a a

9., pa a aag f 12. h pa 10

ya a a S&P 00 P/E a f h US f

12. 201. Th p-- a Cha ha a

a 1. f 201, pa ha

2007.

g p ay g g aga ay ah a

f h a a pay.

I May 2012, h PBC w ah q

20 p f ag a. I Jy, h a y

a p , h ha a

p ppy qy Cha fiaa y-

(pha f fix f a, wh

a qy h a pay). W p ha h

PBC w hg ag a pah a h y a

a a p f a x p ag ha

h Ch aay hag.

Ahgh GDP gwh ha y w ay

2010, h f a ha ag ha y a. Ma

aa f h Sp a O a a

Although the PBoC has lowered both its cash reserve requirements

for banks and its key interest rate, the reductions have been small.

There is room for a larger dose of stimulus if the economic perfor-

mance should prove significantly weaker than expected.

p, pa apa pg, a a a xp

a hw a p Cha. Th pp y h

a phag aag f h afag a

. Mawh fla f a , wh p-

p fa ya--ya.

Eay h a h Ch a whh pf

y py h pa p h p

ga h y a wa ag ga w

Sp-O. F Jaay 1 N , hw, a

-. p , h Shagha S Exhag Cp Ix

agg h ga a (+. p f h MSCI W

Ix a ). B g aha, h pa

f h Ch a ah p a pa h W

Ix.

Th a g h fi haf f 201, h a g

ha ha h y w a -ya pwg. By

h, ga haw a y ha aa, a

h Ch pa y w aa. Pa -

ay Cha a h US (ag a h fia ff) w

ha h. If , h ag h hh a

Cha h p, g aag

a a gwh h y.

Lg a, g p wh h Fa R ha

xpa qaa ag (g Q2, pay Ag-

N 2010), gg a a g h

Cha ha hw g gwh a. Th p ha a p h EM ph a

ap f py .

A a a y h F QE (a phap QE), -

p a aa Cha a a ghy a Ch

fia py a wha h a f h

fi haf f 201

S: Ma


18/39

18

Gold still a monetary asset with a globally

accepted value

The gold price trend is linked to the rise in debt

A continued rise in debt justifies including gold

in a portfolio

Th p f g ha a 00 p h pa

ya, a g w ag a a- hgh. Mawh,

h U Sa a, w w a ha

a a f ya f h a. Th a ag

f wg g ha h w a a w

xpa h aa h a a h ay a.

G a a h a y a a aya. By fa h gg a f g (a 70 p )

y jwy p. Th wg a

Ia ha g a a p wh pp a -

ay whh h ga a h a.

Ia ha h w ag f g f

, ap gwh Cha a ha y

w a a Ia. I ya, h jw-

y y ha ga ha aa p. A

a ha f a f g g f a , wh

h f h a a g a.

Ahgh g ha ag h y -pfg a-

200, aa ha g, q, f

a, ha ay gwh p ay ; a

-p a ha ga . N g,

a a pa, f xap, ffi ay aj

a f.

Hw, f a g a pp ha xa g a a

a, p a g ha h a a. G a

g h a f ay ,

wh aa gag hw h p a ah

a. Thgh hy, h a f

ha aj pay .

A f h g aa wa

19 a a pa h ay 1970. Th -a

B W y wa ah fwg a f . I wa a pggg h f f-

f h US a (Sw a a

191). Th US gaa a fix a a whh a

f g.

Th pp f ag h a wh g, a f -

a ay, h a f a a,

a xhag a a fh, wa p a a

h w ay wh a a,

h w ahy, xpy a h ay

a f a a. I ppa paa, h ay

a h a a pg y. I 1971,

P Rha Nx h w h US aa g, h g h B W y (y 197 h

pa aga ha flag xhag

a). Th a h US h g h wa

p y pay f h y wa Va.

S g a f pay, a h a

g a gay ap f f pay ay. I

h w, ffi g a hp a ha g

xhag f a g. Y h a a ha p-

a ay a ga h a a a a f

pay. Th US a f Uah, f a, ha a p

wa ag g a ga , a f fah

h US Fa R ay py. Wh Uah ay y pa pg, h

ha g a ga wh -

aa.

G h hy f g, ga apa a h fa

ha ay y aj a a g ag g

hg a pa f y , w w ag ha

g jy h a f y a a ay a, -

fi a a way f pg ag a. May a

a ha a ya a h g

.

Gold glitters when worries enter the scene



19/39

19

I h a ha j a ga-

a a g ag g a. F xap, g

h a f h ay aa y h Iaa

May F (IMF), a ha gaa ha a gfia

g a pa a w.

F h wh a pa f g a a ,

wh g ha f h y ag xhag a

f (ETF) f a aag, AUM, a

g ETF wh yg phya g a.

A h a , pa a ha g a -

pf f w faa p:

- Pg aga h f pa

- Pg aga h f phag pw

Dff a ay a h w p ayg

g. G pay afi h q f p-

aga h f phag pw. Hw,

f a p aga h f pa

. S, g f ag pf-

wh h a ag f hg a p

aga 1) fla 2) y ah.

Th a f y h y a pp -

a w way. Eh a a a a h y

ppy y pg y (ag ay a)

a ga w a a hgh h a-g y (faa ag).

Wh a a a h ay a, pa

h ay a h f a

a a; a a h ag

y. Phap ay wha gh ha hp, h

y f y ha fa hapy ay a

h w. Mawh, a a ha hapy a

h ay a a w h y a a whh

hy y a. Sh y a ha hay ha

a aj pa gag h y ppy. Wh a

a hapy a h ay a, h ay a

h ha ha h y w a h y p p

p. A a f hgh ay a a

a, h y w a fi h y

a h ag y, wh h q

a fla p (a ga p a). Tay

a a, wh a-z a (h p f

y), a h f fla gfiay.

Hay, h p f g ha a pay a x-

fia y ppy, ha , wh h a f w

y a a x wha f, f a,

f ppa z, ay a h . Th

p f g ha a a h y f y h

y, a a g f fla.

E f h y fi h y h f

f a hap fla, h fa a ha h hg

f ay wh pap y w gay f

h a a ay a h ay a. L

ay, f h a f py, ha a a -

w 10 p f a h a h w. Mawh

h US Fa R ay a.

Wh py h h 10 p w fi h h-

g gay , wh w g y p f

h a f a.

O way f yg h a ha, wh

pap y, a p g ( ppy).

F h wh g a y, h ff w h

, a wh h a f pap y fa, hy w

aa h phag pw y wg g. A w

a, f g aa ha -

ppy a a ha a apa.

Th W G C, whh p h ag g

g pa a h g, a ha

1,000 f g ha xa h

f . If a h g w gah gh a f a

, h w a 20.2 g.

Ah ag f wg g a a ah p (p

). Th w g a p aga a aj

y ah, f a, f h pj w , wa

w a . I f ga fiaa w, g

ha a a af ha.

Th: G g wh w h


Measured in dollars, the stock market recovery has beenastonishingly good. When we take into account the dollars

performance during this period, that is, measuring share

price performance in gold instead of dollars, the trend has

not been as spectacular at all.

S: Ma


20/39

20

Th: G g wh w h


G a pay a f, a a aa-

f xhag (f f y) fia y (

x). Th a f g y hw y way pap y. Th a f y a y

y fah h (y). Pap y pp wa-

ay hg ha pap, f x wh -

. Oy, fah g a ga apa a a

a a pa. If pp fah g w appa

h, h w ay ha a a ff

a.

Ic i glbl dbO , h g p ha a y wh h

a , pay ha f h U Sa,

g a a a h a ha g

f x p. Ry, h f ha agy

h a p a ga . May

w h xpa gwh ga a a ha.

Th a fla p wh a ag pag

f h h a w ay

ag (pay w h a a). Th w

gwh, a pa a a a a g ha

hw ha hy a ppa a xaay p

ah h j. Th j h a

Fa pap y ay fi a g-

y ha a pgg

a pfi a. Th a f pap y h -

y y pp fah h , whh pa a y. Fa h La w f "fah".

gwh a fla. I p f xy w a

hay, gwh a ga flaay p-

w.

Ca a ha a ay py a a h

pa. O ha ha a ag h

a qaa ag (QE). Thgh QE, h US Fa

R (F) a w y gay a h

pha ff a. Th fa, h pha ha

a h a. I pa, h F

h w y, f a, y US g ;

h US Tay Dpa h , whh h F

h pha. I h way, h F y whh h

g wa fg h US g xp a

fg fi. Th F a hp afiay p w

a a xp y phag

h ay a. I hp ha h a wa a ay (apa pg a

pa p).

Th Ba f Japa ha g p fh a yg a-

ay ayhg ha ay h y y-

g y. Th a a phag y

a q h f f xhag a f (ETF).

A a, h a ha w a w a a wh h

a pa xp away appy w.

Th y a a whh

ffi ha f y p h f. Hw h

y a a wh g h fah f -

? J a Gay h 1920 p ag qa f

y pay wa paa a h US g h p

g f y wa Va, ay a a

g a yg y gwh a figh fla hgh

h pg p.

Over time, the price of gold has correlated

fairly well with the exponential increase in US

debt. After the US decided to sever the dollars

link to gold in the early 1970s, the rate of

increase in debt rose sharply. Gold prices have

been quick to respond.

S: Ma


21/39

21

Th: G g wh w h


Th Ga ha fg h a f hw pp

a whaw h 1920 ay a h pap

y q y a af f a. Ahgh hypfla-

a a ha, pp a awa ha h

away a ha pap y a qy a.

I h f fla (gay fag p) a a -

a wh h ay a p ag, g w

y a ag wh ay h a.

A f f w h a wg p wh h

agh. O h, hy w h a a

gh a. Th a SEK 1, whh

h pa f wh a wy- . H g f -a

a hag. O f h wa f 197. I

197, a -a a 0 p , whhay p a a f a SEK 19. N y wa

h a f h wa a pa a .

A wh a , h a w . Hw pp w h

a ay p wha pp hy ha. I

h p f g g, h p f pap y (h

a) fag?

The strong performance of gold since the turn of the millennium has

caused many investors to question todays high gold price level. While

gold is at a historical high against the US dollar, history shows that

during certain periods, the price of gold has been far more expensive

relative to other assets in this case, equities.


22/39

22

Macro-driven stock market ahead

Record earnings may surprise the market

Low valuations provide support

F a g , N a ha p w

pay p w a h z .

A p, h a ay f z

p. I y ha h a a

h h a fh w a

h y aa. Fay, w

h w w aa h a f,

ay affg a pfa. Ia, w

xp h f hf a aay pa

a : h ag . Eag, , a af-

f y a p. W h ha

ay ga h a phag aag

a fi a w pay a p

a pfa h g h.

Happy, GLEI a p wa a p flw f

ga h x fw h. P h g-

a aa, w f g a, pay -

y ya . Hw, w h wa ha h w

pay wwa aj fa f h

ga w a w xpg fa appa a ha wwa ay wh a w.

O h wh, pa p f h h qa f 2012

w agg. Ia, hy a a wwa

201 ag fa. Hw, pa

aga hw a p ay ff w -

a wh . Oa ag ya -

a pa h p p p. Th f

h pa aagg ww ag

a a ag a h ay jfy

hgh ha aa.

Af a wa 2012 w xp a p f a-

y 1 p x ya. Th w a w a-

g. I jg, fw ay a

h a faa , g ga

h x fw h ay p. Ga

fi a ha wh fa f

201 pay ffi gg p a

pfa.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May

-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May

-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Actual Enskilda 320

+/- 1 StDev bandOct-12 update

Sep-12 update

The chart shows the performance of the Enskilda 320 index of 320

equities traded on Nordic stock exchanges and forecasts of future

performance based on a historically normal correlation with the

expected trend of leading indicators in OECD countries.

Focusing on macro trends and earnings


S: SEB Ea

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E

Sweden Nordic countries

S: SEB Ea

The chart shows earnings growth in per cent (adjusted for nonrecur-

ring items) for listed companies in the Nordic countries and in Sweden.


23/39

23

Th ya, ag a a h a a 2007. Nx

ya w xp w ag. Cpa ha a

gh h aa h, a

ha fa. Vaa f pa pag ag a

-f a a w. O h pa 20 ya, h aa-

ha y w 199/9, wh h y 10-

ya Swh g wa 9 p , a

af h Lha Bh ah h a f 200.

Cha a gwh h pa 1 ya ha -

gfiay h gwh f N pa

g h a p. F ha a a, a gwh

aj a pa ha ga a

y gg , y Cha. Ahgh h

ha hp pfi, g h pa ya a ag xp

h Ch a ha aay a ga fa

, ay pp ha fa a -

ha ag Cha. Tay w ( h h

a Cha) ha Cha p f a a-

a. Ca w f g gwh Cha, pay

g a f aj a pa a -y xp, ay h a fa

aga. S h xp Cha ay gfiay

ag ha 10 ya ag, w ha ay w Ch

gwh a ha pp (whh h

ap gwh a aa pp) w ga

a faa f h ha. B f Cha fy -

aa gwh, ag p- a

gag g aa wh a

pa a a , h f w-

ag N pa w hf wa h

a g a hah a.

T a, w ha aa f N q a

ay p. Dg h gg p,

h ag ha aga hw g w

, a N pa ha

aa h. Tay ha fi

fa f a hap p pfi g 201, h

p h ga gh . Lw aa, w a-

a , ga pay ay a a f -

y faa 201 a a

a pf f q; a ha w a

f h xp ga aa.

N q


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013E

2014E

Earnings

The chart shows the total earnings in millions of euros at 213

large Nordic companies that have been listed since 2002 or

longer.

S: SEB Ea

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012E

2014E

EV/EBITA

The chart shows valuations of operating earnings at Nordic listedcompanies on a debt-free basis (enterprise value/earnings before

interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation = EV/EBITA).

S: SEB Ea


24/39

24

World economy moving in the right direction, but

sluggishly

Asia, emerging markets, cyclical companies the

most attractive

Chinas stock market has lagged: time for a

recovery

O h wh, w a ha pf faay

2012. Th ya ga gy, af pag Mah

h a fla. W a Epa p,

wa a a a ay a Cha f

gwh pa a h a a g

h pg, wh fag ha p a a q. I Ag

a Sp, app a aga a a

. Th g f h h w p a fig-

a hp f fh f h US Fa R

a h Epa Ca Ba. I O, a g f ha-

p xhag ga pa -

ay a a fiaa a pay aw a g

f a pwg.

S Jaay 1, h MSCI W Ix a ha

ga ha p . May Epa xhag

ha pf gy, pay Gay, p-

pag G a Pga ha a p

p p. US pa hgg ag a

h ya O. Cpay p ha

p xpa pay h fa

hgy (IT) wgh w h a. Uay

a h US pa a hg h a.

I Aa a h gg a, ha y

g ay pa. Hg Kg p 17 p fa h

ya a Ia a f 22 p a . Cha, h

h ha, ha gg a ha p ha fa. U

p, h Shagha S Exhag ha fa y p h

ya, h wwa ha h pa h

a h Ch a ha ga g.

Th h qa pay pg a wa x.

Gay pag, a fig w wa f h w

pa wh ag a a xp. Fh

qa pay fa w a, a ga-

, ag wwa f ag

a. O a ga a, pa ag a xp

gw y 12 p 201, wh h f g-

g a wha hgh a 1. p . Aa

ag a a a 10 p xp gwh,

wh Epa a a a hgh (11 p ). Aa

a gg a a a h p, wh Ka, Tawa,

Ia a Thaa ag a wh ag axp a y 1-2 p x ya. Vaa

w a aa, wh ga q ag a

p-ag (P/E) a f 12 xp 201 a-

g. Th US p p h fig wh a P/E a f 12., wh

Ep ag a 11 a Japa 11. x ya p-

j ag. Eq gg a a a h

hap, wh a P/E a f 10.

Cya w hw ha aag ag gwh

201. Cpa h , hgy a

fiaa w gw fa (+22, +1 a +1 p ,

py) pa h a g agy

a xp hw ag gwh f a f 1 p . I

Hesitation creates long-term opportunities


Germany and India are examples of countries with top-performing

stock markets so far in 2012. The Greek stock market has shown surpris-

ing strength since bottoming out last spring. Share prices of Chinese

listed companies have been weak, opening up opportunities ahead.

S: Ma


25/39

25

a, h f a gy, phaaa

a a xp hw w ha aag a-

g gwh.

Th f Aa, gg a a

ya pa. Aa pay ha pf

aazgy w a h ya, wh Cha g a

h aa gap w h US a Cha ah x-

. I g ha h

ha O, pg p pp

Cha. Cha P/E a f 201 9., wh xp a-

g gwh f 10 p . Ma a h

a a p, a a a xp

Sp a O p a gh p f Cha.

Th ahp hag Bjg g N a aha w w pay ha a a a f pa

f a a f f gwh a. Cha -

- gwh ay ha af pg pwa

f ya, w w pa y g gwh pa

p. Gay pag, h Ch ha y

h a a w pa h pa .

Wh hy ay f fi a f

h a afy , h w a f a hap -

a pa p.

A f Cha, w a ha a p w f --

p Aa wh aj gwh pa, h a

Ia, Maaya a Thaa. Ra a Ea (-

g Ca) Ep a a aa aa;g h w aa a hgh ag gwh, ha

f h g h pa f a ga qy pf.

Ahgh Ep p a, a a y

pa a fi w p a pp.

I a w-p g, wh h - f

h Ep h ha a a f hahy

(Gay, h N) h h. I h a

, a aa fa pg, a

w-aag aa pa fi fhag a za pag f h a hgh-gwh

gg a.

Rgh w w a a wa-a- a. Th w

g h gh , gghy. Th w

y wy hag, wh g fy -

g. I ga fi h aay

f h y. Th gg ay a h

p f Ep a h US. Th aag f y Ha

Say ag h US a a ay a w a a p

h gwh h fia qa f 2012, h h

ha h a pp x ya a f h a aag aa.

Th ay a h US pa a

h ay faa h a, P

Oaa aay ha a aga a wh ha-

g. Th ga a f h fia ff. A

ag hw h fa g gga

fiaa p ah . Ohw h

Aa pp w fa -ghg h f

f ax h a xp x ya, whh w h p-

a p j a gg .

T a, a pay ga ay a hgh f h y, h a f pa a a

h pa f Cha y. Lg- fa a a

a a hwg gwh, a a a a

paay a, h a f hgh ha

p. Wh h ha w a

gh w, w a hg ay p. W

f g pp f a p a h

p fa pa.

Ga q


Emerging markets have higher expected

growth than the US and the world

average. Germany also appears very at-

tractive in terms of future earnings, with

low valuations. In China expectations

are low, reflecting the countrys weak

stock market performance this year. This

leaves room for upside surprises, which

may have an impact on the market.

S: Ma


26/39

26

Th Cy M a qaa g . I a-

ay f a g f aay fa f h f-

wg fa a pa:

1. Eag gwh

2. Eag

. R qy

. Ma aa

. D

Bh h f fa a y g h ya

2002-2012, wh h ay f ah fa p g-

a hg ha ha . A fa ha ha

ga p a a y

pay ha a a pa h . If a fa ha

ga a ha a a a,

ha x.

I a h aay f ah a fa, w ha

a aay a w h fa h . If

w fa ga xy a , a ha

f f h wg h pay wg a w.

F h a, ga a ha a h -

aa w aa h .

Th w pa ww wh a a ap-

aa xg EUR 00 a y a a

x aay gaa. Cpa a a ah

h a ah fa, h a f ah pay fa

a a p y a a . O g a pay , w a a a y a a a-

wgh aag f a pa wh h a . Th

a y h a h .

W ha a h a, a-

. I h way, w a a ap h xp

a a. Th f pp wh

qaa faa a a f ag

a g h a f pf aa-

.

The Country Model


A companys earnings, its growth and valuation and the markets expectations are factors that af-

fect its stock market performance. It is thus relevant to stay updated on how these factors evolve,

both in absolute terms and in relation to other companies. In light of this, in 2012 SEB Investment

Strategy looked closely at a number of factors that have historically proven to be good guides tostock market performance. Based on this, we have also designed an allocation model, the Country

Model, whose purpose is to support the management of global equities.

Landmodellen

Kvantanalys

Mikroekonomi

Bolag Land

Ranking

Marknadssyn

SEB House View

Fundamentalanalys

Macroekonomi

Tema Land

Recommendation

Exposure

Product

The Country Model

Quantitative analysis

Microeconomics

CompaniesCountry

Ranking

Market outlook

SEB House View

Fundamental analysis

Macroeconomics

Theme Country


27/39

27

W ha hw a pf h ga qy a

w ha pf f ha y ag fh Cy M g 2012.

Sy-fi p f h pf aa h ga

a (MSCI W AC) a 2 p aa

h p fi h Cy M (qay wgh).

O h fi May f ah h, h Cy M p-

a. If h y ag ha hag, h a p

a aa f h pf.

O N 1, h pf wa p 9.07 p f h ya,

wh h ga a wa p .2 p a

Swh . A x f 2.79 p f h ya

ga a a y g , g hpaay w h pf ha a a

ha x. Whh h ya a -

, g gh qaa

aay a h aag f ga q.

Th Cy M


S: Bg

Ranking Country Comments

Nway Hgh f a aa a

Ia Hgh f qy

3 Ty Hgh f ag a a aa

Ranking Country Comments

4 Gay Hgh f ag a a aa

6 Ra Hgh f a aa

Cha Hgh f a aa

Ia Hgh f qy, w f 4 US M f fa

5 UK M f fa

Sw Hgh f , w f ag gwh

8 Spa M f fa

5 Baz Lw f ag gwh, ag a

6 Japa Lw f ag gwh, ag a qy

S: SEB

Top three

Rankings for major markets


28/39

28

Corporate bonds go from fantastic to good

Major OECD central banks continue quantitative

easing

Norwegian and Swedish central banks take key

interest rates in opposite directions

Corporate bond yields lower going forward

but better than government bond yields

Y a ay y fla a gwh x-

pa. Hgh xpa a g y a w

xpa a y fa a ww. F

a ya, a a ha ay apa

a. Th Epa Ca Ba (ECB) ha a qy

a h ag y, h US Fa R (F) ha p-ha g a gag-a , a h

Ba f Japa (BJ) ay wag h y (JPY) wh

yg a y ag a.

Ifla ha fag ay 2011, a h a

h w ay a fla

a w . Th a fa gag h h ppf a y p. Egy p ha ff,

a w gg pa

a p a a a py

hgh. I gh f h, ffi g f

wpa a g fla, whh g a

a a.

Th US Fa R, ha y B Ba, ha f-

py a pg a w

201. I xp ga a py w 7 p

(w j p ) a fla a p .

Th F w a y a USD 0 wh f gag-

a 201 a 201, wh g pha a a a a USD a h.

Th f h x pha w a,

whh aff p, g fi a a

a. Lw a a a pay w

h a, ay, a h p. Rg a

a p a ah y fa gg h

wh p fa h US. B aay h a ha

a . Th aag h a ha h US

y w ha-g h fia ff.

Gwh h z w a wa. A a f -

py, hh p fag, wh g-

h g . Th ECB fi a w y a a 0.7 p . Uay a h f

fi y pf f g qy a

afy, a hy p h y Ga w-ya g-

a a ga y, whh a hy a

payg f afy. B h a gh p Gay,

whh xp g a aa wh a

a h a Cha a Sh Aa. Eay h a

h ECB p a w a- pga h

z w a Ogh May Taa (OMT). If h

OMT pga aa, h ECB w a pha

a y g h ay a

app f a ga fiaa a f h EFSF/ESM

a- f. S fa, y ha app, SEB


-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

US, CPI Europe, CPI Emerging Markets, CPI

S: Ma

Unless there is a surprisingly steep rise in commodity prices, infla-

tion may be even slightly lower on both sides of the Atlantic and

in emerging markets during 2013-2014. Low resource utilisation in

the OECD countries means salary increases should decelerate.


29/39

29

w, Spa w a appa wh x h. Th

a f ECB a a a- f a

a g/pg w wg f h .

I Japa, h y a w a j a z h

fa f, a h BJ w y a ag a-

a pha h g ya.

Ewh Aa, fa f a ha ag f h Ch

y ha a ay, pa y a a

g f p. Dg h a, Cha ay

py ha a a, wh h y a a p . W

h a w hag 201. Gwh Ia,

a Cha, ha wa. GDP gwh w ah

p 201 a .2 p 201. Ifla w fa a 7 p , a a ha a

h y g fi. Ia a a

h fag fla a h f g gwh a

a f a a ay py. Th a -

ag 7 a p a h a f h fi h

qa f 201.

Ng Ba ggg a hag y

Nway. Th y a ay 1.0 p (h a

hag wa Mah 2012), a w xp a a h a

h 201. I Sw, w h Ra w

ag a pah, wg h p a D

( 1 p ) a Fay 0.7 p . A gwg f ay-ff , g py a w fla

xpa 201 p wa Ra a .

I w, Swh g w y ha 0.

p h x w h wh h

z a US w ga y f a 1 p . Cpa wh h w ga ag (BBB-) a x-

p y ha 2. p . Fay, h a

h g wh ghy hgh (hgh y ), whh

w w y ha . p .

Cpa a a. Thy

a faa pfa h pa 12 h. S hgh

y f ha ha f 1-1 p . I

ga ha ga f p -9 p . S

h q whh h a a pa pa. W

w y h a hgh h g

ya, h y pa h

ay. Tha app y a , wh h apa a a a w a f p

a fg. Sw a a f h a wh

gwh pa h aa.

Dg 2012, h ha a a y f pa

x h ay f h , whh w f h

qy a.

Th q whh w a fag a aa wh

p hgh y . O aw . If h ay

aa h a, ha a f

ag h g f a OECD .

I h US, 10-ya Tay a ag a h wy 1900.

Fx


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

European HY default rate Estimate

The recessions early in the new millennium and in 2008-2009 caused the bankruptcy rate in the US and Europe to soar. That rate is signifi-

cantly lower today and about the same as in 2007. It is expected to be only slightly higher over the next year. This reflects our forecast of a

slightly stronger global economy in 2013-2014 and the fact that companies are in better financial health than in a long time.

S: SEB0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

US HY default rate Estimate

Ep US

S: SEB


30/39

30

Better risk sentiment led to a good quarter for

Equity Long/Short...

while Credit Long/Short was able to benefitfrom central bank measures

Our focus remains on fleet-footed managers

and market-neutral strategies

Th h qa wa a y a ay h

pa f. I Jy, a w y h w faa

axy a ppha z . R a f

a y a h . Hw, a

Jy Epa Ca Ba (ECB) P Ma Dagh a-

ha h ECB w wha a a

h , fw y a pg f pha

-affl z ha app f fiaapp. Th a ay ha a p

pa a , g h f h f

h qa. Oa, wa a p qa f hg f.

Th HFRX Ga Hg F Ix 1. p wh

h MSCI W Eq Ix .1 p ( EUR). Th

HFRX Eqy Hg Ix pf gh f h g

q a, fw y h HFRX E D Ix.

Sag ha w w N Sh Ba a Mg

Aag. Hw, h wa a aa a away

w f aag. I Ma CTA, ay f h gg

pay p ga hag , wh h x

a 1 p g h p. W w f-

aag wh a f qy a h pfa ha a xp a f a. W

a ag q ag ahgh w a h

g pa D a S C. W a -

g CTA hg a h fi

haa a h a a.

W h hg f a f a ag:

Th agy ha ha a ffi p, wh h ha p

-p f pa faa

a. R ha h y a-ag xp h a ah ha h

h f q, aag wh a hgh xp

q ha fw h a h p a w. Eqy

Ma Na ha ha h ha h agy ha

fa p 2012 (HFRX Eqy Ma Na

Ix USD). R w gay g h

qa, wh aag ha pa a

ag g h qa.

W p ha h a w y

pa p ah ha pay faa.

Th pa h Eqy Lg/Sh agy h

fl-f ag Tag a Vaa N Exp,

wh xp a qy aap wg a

. Maag wh a ga y gg h

g a h h fa ha h wh a -

p h ga f h a. Eqy Ma

Na w y h wha

a p w j aha. If h a a

ay, h agy w pf paay w, a

h a p a a y w .

Fx ag ha ha a ffi qa, wh

gwg pa a hgh ay f fix

ha ha g a. Maag w, a

a, ga a a g h h f hy , wh a a w. Th HFRX Ra

Va x f 1. p ( USD) May a ha

fla h. Maag wh h h a

gay w h qa, h a ha

h qa, wh pa awg.

Maag y f h- y w pay

ha a ffi aha, w pf ag

f h g f h y . Af

ECB P Ma Dagh a a Jy, -

ag ha h ECB a g yg g -

Less impact from politics = better potential



31/39

31

y ppha z (Spa a Iay pa-

a), h y gap w h a h Ep

ha aw. Hw, w ha y ay p, a h ECB a gg fwa a y ha a

aj pa Ra Va ag. O h h f

h Aa a w, a w f qaa ag g

, whh a a pp f h agy

ga f whh p . W a h-

f p wa Ra Va a pay aag

f fix .

Ev Div d DidE D ag gay p pa

h a g, aq a . Hw,

hgh ay a fag ha p h qa

ay pa pp h , a h

HFRX E D Ix 2.7 p ( USD) g h

p, f h May.

Sh h a f, p

ha h f pa w a aga. Lw

a a w gwh gay a ha pa w

y gw hgh aq a ga x, whh

fa Mg Aag. Mawh, pa a fig

agy ha g a a, ag h f

g h aa h. E D aag

wh xpay g xp a q h

ha h pa.

Ma a Tag ag ha h pa

pap g ga , hy ha a h

gg app h. S aag-

ha ha a ga h h

f h ya, a h p fiay pa ff h

qa. Nh, ga w aay ga y

hg. A w a, h a agy y

, whh y h pa

aa. Th a ffi fa -

ag, a h ya CTA ha p ( USD),

pa Ma gay, whh w 0. p .

W ha CTA a Sya Ma g a

pf a hg ha ga a a a

p fia. Th CTA ay gay

ga wa q a ,

p g a US a. Th a-

g h ff g fia a p-ya pf.

Hw, w xp h a wg a a fh,

wh a h fa a pfa.


Hg f

STRATEGY INDEX PERFORMANCE % (USD)

Oct-Nov

2012

Q3 2012 2012 YTD 2011 2010

Global Hedge HFRX Global Hedge Fund -0.44 1.45 2.24 -8.87 5.19

Equity Hedge HFRX Equity Hedge 0.33 2.19 3.74 -19.08 8.92

Relative Value HFRX Relative Value Arbitrage -0.57 0.66 2.22 -4.00 7.65

Event Driven HFRX Event Driven -1.01 1.86 3.84 -4.90 1.98

Macro HFRX Macro -0.59 0.94 -1.47 -4.88 -1.73

S: SEB


32/39

32

Primary markets a substitute for government

bonds

REITs are this years winner

2012 a good year for risk assets

Taa ay h ga a f a a

a a g h h qa f 2012, ahgh

wa w wha a qay a ya--ya a.

F h f ya, h g pfa wa Nh

Aa, wh h US a Caaa h pg hgh a

ay pa 2011. I Aa, pfa wa

wh h p ya, wha h f ay Ep

a a wh wa w, ahgh ay f h ag a

h g aag aa h a ay, ha a ag aa .

A h , aa ay a pp ha

fa wh ffi pp ha gw

2012. Af a f ya f g a ha,

ha h ya h ffi ppy .

I 2012, h ha a f a f 0 p f h

ga aa a f h fw hw

a aa ay hgh h a f -

a pp ha gay hw a ay.

Gg fwa, ay h ag a q a

ha w aa , a ha ha

f h pa h ya. Th ha qz a

f a p pay a fa aa -

. Th fa ha h p gg ha

pay wa h . Maxg

ha ay.

Taay, g a a a a ha -

ha wh app , wh

ay xy w g y ha a a a aa. I a h fig aa

g y pg h y y g-

f h a a a. Hw, gwg a

h a f qay a w ha

pay a ha ay jfi g h a f

h a a pp. Cg ha


Liquid markets bolster sales activity

Rl

Activity in the global market for commercial real estate

stabilised during the third quarter of 2012 but was

down somewhat on a quarterly and year-on-year basis.

It was mainly the larger and more liquid markets that

continued to attract investment.

S: Ma

2007Q1

2007Q2

2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3

2008Q4

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

2011Q2

2011Q3

2011Q4

2012Q1

2012Q2

2012Q3

USD

noillib

Americas EMEA Asia Pacific


33/39

33

pp a a a h f h a a

fi pp ha ff fa hgh , fy -

aa ha aa ay ay a haa h y.

I h a f Investment Outlook(ph Sp

11, 2012), w h gwg h

a a h ya. W h hap h

f pa h a a a f

h agy g g fag a a

pa a ga a ag f

hg.

W a h gwg a a xp a

a a (REIT). N y a a-

a y h gay hgh y h pa f-

f (f ga a, a REIT pay a f a a

90 p f h pay axa ), h qy

ap a appa h g f a a xp

ppa p apa f a x p.

Tay REIT p h ag pha y fa f -

a pp. A wh h gwg f a a

, w a f a gwg f REIT f -

g p h a. Ig REIT ha a f

h f ag 2012. O ga REIT x

(GPR W REIT) p a 20 p h ya, pa

a ga q (MSCI W) f a 10 p

a .

Th ya, ha ay h f

a, ay . R app ha fay w -

g h f 2012, ay a ha h

pf w. O xpaa f h ha

ha p fah h

a fi ay w a .

Thy ha hf f g pa

a gg a , whh ha h

a pfa h ya. F h, hy ha

ph fah h a a h q

a. O h q a, hy ha a

ha ay, h g pay h a

, pa wh h a y. Th

f h ha g pfa

y ay -ya h a a, a

a, g pfa y h REIT a, whh

fi f aa . I ha-

a a why a w a a

a ha fa f h x w aw a h

f h ya, h ag a paa -a f a fia pp.

Ra a


As the REIT market has grown in 2012, it has also turned in a strong

performance in both absolute and relative terms. One global REIT

index (GPR World REIT) is up almost 20 per cent, compared to a rise

in global equities (MSCI World) of about 10 per cent.

Although risk appetite has generally been suppressed since April,

risk assets have performed well this year. High yield corporate

bonds, equities and REITS are among the winners in 2012.

S: Ma

S: Ma


34/39

34

Defensive PE positioning after a strong

performance

Activity remains high, with the aim being to

clarify underlying values

High transaction levels together with good

growth prospects provide long-term potential

I h a f Investment Outlook, w a g

pfa f yg a a (NAV) f h -

x f pa qy (PE) pa. Th g NAV

ga O 2011 a, xp f a fw a wh

h wa a hap a app, h ha -

fl h p f PE pa. Dg h pg,

w aw hw h x f h pa wa f f

hay g pg fiaa ha. Th ay

wa pfa f PE pa wa xpa y

h wa gwh a a fg .

Hw, wh h hap yg NAV, h

w g h fa f h x f -

PE pa. Gay fag --a a pay

a a ay a h a a .

Nh, a h wg, h ha pg w

a a ha aga g. I a

whh h a g f a pay app

h ff f a a aa a.

Dg h a, faa a p-

h g pfa f

a. Sa app h y ha

agy y h ay py p y

ay a a. Th p h z w

y h a f, a h US

h a ha h g a w . Ga

awa f h p ag pa a ha a

, h ffi fg a h z

w y p f . Wh h p -

a ay PE pa, a a pp f

h ha a fi fg f h .


High risk with increased confidence

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2011-12-30

2012-01-20

2012-02-10

2012-03-02

2012-03-23

2012-04-13

2012-05-04

2012-05-25

2012-06-15

2012-07-06

2012-07-27

2012-08-17

2012-09-07

2012-09-28

2012-10-19

Index

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

C

orrelation

LPX50TR Index Correlation 1 month Correlation 3 months

During the autumn, the index for listed PE companies hasperformed far better than the broad MSCI World equities

index. The de-coupling of PE shares from financial shares now

looks like it has been reversed, while SEB Listed Private has

has continued to outperform.

Ka: Bg

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2011/12/30

2012/01/20

2012/02/10

2012/03/02

2012/03/23

2012/04/13

2012/05/04

2012/05/25

2012/06/15

2012/07/06

2012/07/27

2012/08/17

2012/09/07

2012/09/28

2012/10/19

Index

LPX50TR Index S&P Financial Index

SEB Listed Private Equity MSCI World AC LOC

While the index for listed PE companies has risen, the one-

and three-month rolling correlation with the broad MSCI

World equities index have both fallen. The three-month rolling

correlation is down from 0.9 to 0.63 and the one-month rolling

correlation is down to 0.42.

S: Bg

S: Bg


35/39

35

May PE pa a a ay a ha

g h f . A a a-

a aag w apa, whh a a y ha f aag h a a. Th p

fl h qa f a a a pa qy

ag wh h a f pa -f a. Th

x f PE pa, LPX0 Ta R, p 22 p

a h ya, wh a 20 p f

h aa pfa May.

Th a ha pgy a p pa w-

. Th VIX ay x ha ag a ha w

f , whh gh a a a

h h . Th p p a -

g hgh aa ha a aag -

h app h h . May PE f

a fy p, g hgh aa a

gg a h a ga h z

a h f a fia ff h US.

Dg h fi haf f 2012, h a a a -

a py ggh x a. Hw, g

h , a awg gap w NAV

h pay a ay a a a aa-

ay. R aa 2011

a ay h ay a. May

p a gg aa h ya w pa a

ya , whh p a ay 201.

Th NAV PE pa ha

h a w w h- ha aag.

I h Sp f Investment Outlook(ph

Sp 11, 2012), w xpa hw awg

NAV h a a g f g fiaa hah. Th

ag h ya 2007-200 ha

a pa, g h ffi pg f -

PE pa. O wpa w ha

ay PE pa a ag p p h

y ga ag f h a a. Th

p hgh a ha ya, wh h

a g afy gg a a a gh

h fiaa p f PE pa. Va a agf a whp g apa a,

wh h y p y ay py

, ha y h g

pfa.

Th ah f apa h pa qy g h

h qa a p pa h w aw g

h qa. Hw, fi h a

a wa y a aag a f h fi

xg USD . I a g agy

pha a f w way appah

aa h a a. F a, g-

g p h z a hapg a w -

whh ay a a a way f

g.

Gwh pp f 201, wh py w

g y, hy ay h

wa g app. G SEB fa f

h a f h x w h, pp f

PE pa a g. Th -ya ha a

a f h x f PE pa pa h

MSCI W Ix f ga q 1., whh a p-

a f h a a a -fy a.

B h a a apayg ha pa, a f w

a h ha aa a h pa ya, h a f h aag 2 p .

Apa f h h- f a , h -

p g pp f g-

a aaag f a a a g fia

qa y g PE f. M a gwh

pp gh wh a g a ay a

w f h a a. Wh ay PE pa ha

h --a a, h f aa

a yg NAV ha h a a hag ha w

aa w apa.


Pa qy


36/39


Historic price differential for oil

Good potential but no rise in precious metals

Grains still too expensive

M ha pf ay h a.

Wh ha a py ay a, pay f

p a a a, ay a y p a

w w ha hy w a h f h . W

a h ga y ha wgh p w.

Dg h a, p (B) ha fla w

USD 10 a 11/a a a h wg a a USD 110/

a. Ag ha fa f a p ga -y h, w p w a a a

ya f w. Hw, h a f hap p -

, wh h g a fag p. Gpa ,

ay w Ia a Ia, a fa ha a a a

g p. Hw, a ag ppy ha w a y

fag wh a y ha g w ha

xp a fag p. S, h fa ha

h a Sa Aaa p a USD 0-100/a

aa a aa g w h .

Dg h a, h ppy wa ag ha h -

a. Th pa a Lya

p aay a w ay a p-fl

p apay, Iaq ha a a p

a xp. Fh, h p a p

f gh h US ( xa f p-ag

ha fa) ha x xpa. Th a x-

p way f xag , a p f a a USD 0/

a a f aa ag.

A p h a ag p ffa ha a w

B (Nh Sa) a W Txa Ia (WTI) . Th

ffa ha g fla w USD a 20/a,

wh B g xp. A h wg, a USD

2, a h hgh. Th a a f xpaa f h

p ffa. WTI p Chg, Oaha, whh

ha a p ffi pp apay. Th f-

fa ha w a a a f p

Nh Sa p j wh h aaa, a ff ha w pa .

I Sp, a a ag h ay h ya,

y a ff pa f h w a

ag a a ha ag f h Ch y.

Hw, p qy a a a w aay a h

a hy w f h ay, a h hgh ha

h w p 2010. O a Sp wa ha

a a ha h ga pa h a

a a -ya pp, a w a g h w.

Cha, whh a f a gfia ha f ga a

p (0-0 p ), a pa paa h

fa. C a a a p ha g f-

whh h Ch y w ha a ha f

ag, g a f Cha pp

fa a ha h f a ha-ag a.

Economic upturn vital to commodity prices

The above chart shows the trend in WTI and Brent oil prices over

the past five years. As indicated, the difference in prices is at a

historic high.

S: Ma


37/39

37

Ahgh w a g a g y Cha,

w ha a a y h ffi f

p y p 10 p ya. Hw, f a -aa ay a a p, a a fi

a p Cha w .

M a p a w ha h aga f

p. N p wh h ag gap aga

f p, whh h w h p

f , a a p hapy a

p . Hw, pp ag a a ag a

p , whh a xpa pa y h -

g ay a ppy. C pp

a a a h-ya w, ahgh Ch a fay

ag ( ag ha a g a ww).

Sh Ch p a p p, pp w qy py, whh pay a

pp p jp p pa (a a 0 p

pay). Sa Ch pp p a a -

p US hg a w y pp p.

Expa f pwf a f h US Fa

R a Epa Ca Ba f p a p

Ag a ay Sp. Wh h a w a-

, p a a, h wa f h a.

May ha pay g-ag

. Th a w a w h y faa

p a, wh pwf a a a, w a

a a ah gfia g ay. W

a a g f wa ha p a a g

h a. Hw, a a ha, a

f h a f h pa w ya , g a -

p ha h hapy a -ya pp.

T Sh Afa , wh a

ha a gfia ppy p, fh f h

ay, whh pg ha y a fa gfia ha f ga p a p. F

pa, h ha 7 p . Ahgh w a y

h ha, h a Sh Afa ha

a w ay.

W xp p a p ay hag a

ya f w. F a hap p, fla xpa

w y ha a h US a w ha

wa. F p a pa a paa,

ga a a a a a pa paa, a

0 p f p h a y pa-

f g a paa f p g.

I Sp, w ha h a p -

ay ga p ha a a ha p

w y a. S h, p ha fa -10

p , a wh w f a ap, w xp

p 10-20 p w a ya ha ay. A h

f x wah fa, ga p h

a p.

A f fag aga p ga, h wah

away a fa a ha ay p. B

h fa w aaa gg a wah

g h g w, ha , N a

xp p h a, whh pp faf fag p. O fa ha gh p a hap fa

p h h ha y a w,

pay f az (), a f ya a. Maz a

ya a p ay hf fla h h -

, w xp fag p h g .

Th f h Ch y ag a ha ag ha

a, a h US a a ha

ay a x xpa. Th a pa fa-

f y a gg fwa. Cha

a gwg ha f ga y p, a

f h y h a, ha w aff -y p. Cha gg a af f pw a h

ay aa wh h, w gwh h

Cha a gay w aa wha 201, whh

h y p.


C

As the chart indicates, the price of gold has been in a consolida-

tion phase for about the past two years. However, in a ten-year

perspective, the upward trend has been especially strong.

S: Ma


38/39

38

The traditional reserve currencies are weighed

down by problems in their countries

whereas alternative currencies are backed

by well-managed economies

Among the latter are the Norwegian krone and

emerging market currencies

Th ga fg xhag (FX) a ha y

haa y a ay, whh a p

ha a a ha a. Wh fl-

a w a h pa f a 200 a

2007 wa a ffi p hag -

a xhag a w y g .

Hw, ay a a a ayhgh pay a wh h y ha

a h f h p fiaa a

aa ya. Th aa ha a FX

a pay xpay a a h

xp a , whh ha p

ay.

F a g , a g g f h FX a ha

ga apa , wh ha agy

g aa h aj h US

a, y, a Bh p (USD, JPY, EUR a GBP).

Capa ha flw f h a a

a y wh w-aag -, h a h Swh a a Nwga , a w

a h y f Aaa a Caaa. G

aa a pa p, ag wh -

a pp g h z a h US, h

h a a y g f h FX a hgh

away ag .

By a a, pag ay w p-

p ga app f fiaa a h

z a US. Th ha h EUR p f w

a ha h h Epa Ca

Ba (ECB) ah Ogh May Taa

(OMT) -phag pga a h z

p wa a ga, g

pa f a ag ha ay ay 201.B a h a , ay faa p p

a f -h , pay y wa -

aa p. Th a a y f h

ag y h z, Fa.

Mawh, h h f h Aa, p gw-

g pa a Wahg ah a g a

a a pg a ax a x ya (h

fia ff), whh w ph h y a -

. Th Cga Bg Offi pj a 0. p

a GDP 201 f h fia ff a, -

pa SEB fa f ghy 2 p gwh (a

fa fiaa ghg). A g a h f a fia ff

p, h EUR/USD a y a a a 1.0

h USD pay wa wha f h

f h ya f US g a ha p.

I a a h US g fiaa p

w ha a p way, wh h a f

w pa a h z ga p,

whh w wa h . O h f 201, w

h xp h EUR pa aga h USD, a h

xhag a x a h a 1.2.

Th GBP a JPY ha a aay w a -

. B h a w ffg f

g a a wa . Mawh,h Ba f Ega a h Ba f Japa p

a hghy a ay py haa y x-

y w g y a a a-

h a pha. I gh f h, h pp f

h a a ga.

Tay h JPY aay xp, h wa

aga h x . Th a

agy f h Sw fa (CHF). Hw, h GBP a-

g a fay a aa g- aga h

h EUR a USD. A h a , h UK a wa -

y. Bh y ggg aga g haw


Separating the wheat from the chaff


39/39

a a. I Ag, h y p

ag a fi . I ay h ay

g- -aag wa a af Bh xp, h GBP pa aga h EUR a

w a h USD. Th z a f a 0 p

f Bh xp.

Af ay, h SEK aga gh aga

h aj . O a ha h z

g ha fy a y h

ECB OMT pga ( a), whh ha w h

p h a gh aga ay h

aj . Ah a ha h Swh y

ha w gfiay h pa fw h, af g

ag a a g pa pay pa h z

h pg a ay .

Pay f h a, fg paa ha -

h SEK ag pa: g SEK wh h

y wg. Wa gwh, wh pj -

fla Sw fa w h Ra ag f 2 p

a -ya pp, ha f xpa f a

h p a h w a p, whh ha a

wgh w h SEK.

B Sw y j ag ag pa-

; fg pf a pa, a hy hp a

h SEK f fiaa a w. Mawh,

ay Swh pay pa a w a fia-

a ha a hay wgh

h SEK a g FX hg a ha ag fg xhag

a aa. O fa ha Swh xp a

w z h ppy w ha h SEK ha

wa wha a w y wh ag h

hg a f h fg y xp, ahgh h

ay a g wa xp a p.

O h ga y aa aga whh SEB -

w happ ay 201 Swh xp w a

apy, whh h a fa h SEK. Sw a f h fw a wh g

faa h f f a ay aa g

g, a a p a a pag f GDP a ag

a p. U h z ,

Sw a a a .

Th SEK h ha a g ha f g a h

ghy g . Th a a ga x-

f h Nwga (NOK), whh SEB w h

y wh h pa appa gg fwa.

I a xy g faa

Nway a hgh gwh ha Epa , a

hgh y a f Nway h a f 201.

Oh wh pa appa a f

h gg a (EM) ph. Thy a p w

p a h qa ay. Th pp f h -

a faa, f a a. L h Swh a

Nwga a h OECD y

( a), EM fi wh ga

wh g a f aa h aa a-

j .

Dff a a gwh w h

EM a OECD a a ay h aaag

f EM . Tha h a

a/ pa h US, Cha, h z h

M Ea ha app h fiaa a,

ag a flgh hgh-qy (h OECD hay

h). O fa ha h EM a a gp w

appa y ghy p aga h USD h x

12 h.

C

After sizeable depreciations against the euro

during the financial and economic crises of 2008-

2009, both the Norwegian and Swedish currencies

have appreciated significantly against the euro.

The SEK, which has weakened this autumn as the

result of an unexpectedly sharp economic decel-

eration in Sweden, has good potential to bounce

back after a while. Meanwhile, in SEBs view, the

NOK is the industrial country currency with the

greatest appreciation potential going forward.

S: Ma

Investment Outlook: The dawn is discernible

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