Investment Funds Advisory Today- Buy Stock of State Bank of India and neutral view on Sun...

8/13/2019 Investment Funds Advisory Today- Buy Stock of State Bank of India and neutral view on Sun Pharmaceuticals Ind

1/23

SUNPHARMA :Robust Performance "NEUTRAL" 17th Feb 2014

Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectations with total revenues including other operating incom

at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led by robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of company was supporte

well from domestic operations. The US formulation business grew by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 M

.................................................................................................. Pa e : 7-8

State Bank of India : "BUY" 17th Feb 2014

SBINs profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions and contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and highe

tax in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI. Banks NII grew by 13.3% YoY led by higher loan growth and stable NIMAsset quality slightly deteriorated with GNPA stood at 5.9% versus 5.8% in previous quarter and net NPA further worsen to 3.2% against 2.9

sequentially due to lower loan loss provisions made. We value bank at Rs.1779/share which is 1.1 times of FY14E book valu

.............................................................................................. ( Page : 2-6)

17th Feb, 201

Edition : 207

IEA-Equity

Strategy

13th Feb 2014

Finolex Cables(FCL) Q3FY14 PAT of Rs. 24.5 crore was below ourestimate owing to lower sales and EBITDA margin. Decline in communicatio

cable segment segments as well as high raw material prices resulted in flat EBITDA growth of 3.2% yoy. Sales rose 5.58% to Rs. 557.55 crore i

the quarter ended December 2013 as against Rs. 528.07 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2012. Third Quarter result wer

marginally below our expectaton which led us to revise our estimate on stock, we cut our EPS forecast for FY14E-15E by 8.6%/4.1%. Even afte

posting marginally below result the stock is quite attractive at current market price of Rs. 81 and left a limited upside of 11%, however w

advised our reader to book a part profit on stock . ......................................... ( Page : 21 - 22)

"Book Partial

Profit "Finolex Cables Ltd:"Reasonable prospects..."

Canara banksperformance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth. Canara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growt

in profit & loos account due to lower base rate among peers. Banks asset quality was deteriorating sequentially along with higher fres

slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write off). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutra

view on the stock. ..................................................................... ( Page : 16- 20)

Coal India LTD :

CIPLA : "BUY" 14th Feb 2014

Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led by healthy growth in export business wit

well support from India operations to. The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 1509 Cr for th

quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr. ................................................ ( Page : 9-10)

"BUY" 14th Feb 2014

Earlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level may be maintained , else we assume that since th

company is a good dividend paying company with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India at a attractiv

valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous estimates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a targe

price of Rs.307/-. ............................................................... ( Page : 13-15)

Somany Ceremics: "Outlook Challenging in near term" "REDUCE" 14th Feb 2014

At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY15E. The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1%

& EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY15E. We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at current leve

Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick

demand in the latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY15E and pric

target to Rs 115. ............................................................ ( Page : 11-12 )

CANARA BANK : "NEUTRAL" 14th Feb 2014

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

India Equity Analytics aily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities


2/23

1473

17791776

21

-

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute -10.2 -35.8 -35.8

el.to Nifty -5.9 -37.9 -37.9

Current 4QFY13 3QFY1

omoters 62.3 62.3 62.3

I 8.8 8.9 9.8

I 17.9 17.7 16.7

hers 10.9 11.1 11.2

Financials Rs, Cr

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 32526 43291 44331 49365 58302Total Income 48351 57643 60366 65288 74225

PPP 25336 31574 31081 29105 33401

Net Profit 8265 11707 14105 10241 11765

EPS 130.2 174.5 206.2 149.7 172.0

110126

State Bank of India

Dur ing quar terSBIsprof i tabi l i ty decl ined by 34% largely due to high

prov isio ns and conting encies led by deter iorat ing asset quality and higher t

in order to create DTL special reserve as per suggestio n by RBI. Howev e

bank has seen grow th in loan and deposits wh ich translated into growth

prof it los s to some extent. Due to high er operat ing expenses , operat ing pro

grow th was negativ e despite of 14% grow th in revenue. We value bank

Rs.1779/share which would be 1.1 times of FY14Es book value.

Moderate NII growth led by lower growth in interest earnings assets than

interest bearing liabilities

Bank reported NII growth of 13.4% YoY to Rs.12641 cr lower than our expectation

Rs. 12959 cr largely due to lower interest income from advances than high

deposits and borrowing cost. Total income was grown by 13.7% YoY to Rs.16831

supported by other income growth of 15% YoY to Rs.4190 cr. Other income growwas led by exchange and commission income gain of Rs.2971 cr and forex incom

Rs.643 cr.

Operating profit reported negative growth due to higher operating expenses

led by employee benefit provisions

arket Data

pside

2469/1452

SE Code 500112

SE Symbol SBIN

esult update BUY

MP

arget Priceevious Target Price

kt Capital (Rs Cr)

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

ock Performance

2wk Range H/L

Operating expenses increased by 31.4% YoY to Rs.9212 cr in which employee co

and other operating cost increased by 35% and 25.7% respectively. Employee co

was led by higher provision for pension and gratuity to the tune of Rs. 1355 cr a

against Rs.743 cr in 3QFY13 and Rs.1283 cr in 2QFY14. Adjusting the sam

employee cost increased by 8% YoY. Operating profit was declined by 2.2% YoY

Rs.7618 cr. Cost income ratio increased by 735 bps YoY to 54.7% from 47.4%

3QFY13.

Moderate NII growth, higher operating expenses and higher provision and tax

rate led profit de growth of 34% YoY

SBIs profitability was declined by 34% YoY largely due to higher provisions a

contingencies led by deterioration in asset quality and higher tax rate in order

create DTL special reserve as per suggestion by RBI.

verage Daily Volume

hange from Previous

BIN Vs Nifty

hare Holding Pattern-%

9.44 lakh

fty 6048

"BUY"17th Feb, 2014



3/23


4/23

State Bank of India

Source: Esatwind/Company


Moderate NII growth led by lower growthinterest earnings assets than interest bear

liabilities

Operating profit reported negative growth d

to higher operating expenses led by employ

benefit provisions

Moderate NII growth, higher operat

expenses and higher provision and tax rate

profit de growth of 34% YoY



5/23

State Bank of India




arterly Performance 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 % YoY % QoQ 3QFY14E Variation(%)

erest/discount on advances / bills 26310 25379 22800 15.4 3.7 25937 1.4

ome on investments 8228 8137 7072 16.3 1.1 8303 -0.9

erest on balances wi th Reserve Bank of India 92 106 110 -16.1 -13.0

109 -15.9

ers 241 300 362 -33.3 -19.7 349 -30.9

al Interest Income 34870 33922 30344 14.9 2.8 34699 0.5

ers Income 4190 3278 3648 14.9 27.8 3876 8.1

al Income 39061 37200 33992 14.9 5.0 38575 1.3

erest Expended 22230 21671 19189 15.8 2.6 21739 2.3

12641 12251 11154 13.3 3.2 12959 -2.5

er Income 4190 3278 3648 14.9 27.8 3876 8.1

al Income 16831 15529 14803 13.7 8.4 16835 0.0

ployee 5867 5819 4351 34.8 0.8 6364 -7.8

er Expenses 3345 3399 2661 25.7 -1.6 3737 -10.5erating Expenses 9212 9218 7012 31.4 -0.1 10101 -8.8

P( Rs Cr) 7618 6312 7791 -2.2 20.7 6734 13.1

visions 4150 3029 2668 55.5 37.0 3112 33.3

T 3469 3283 5123 -32.3 5.7 3622 -4.2

1234 908 1727 -28.5 36.0 1087 13.6

Profit 2235 2375 3396 -34.2 -5.9 2535 -11.9

ance Sheet (Rs Cr)

posits 1349940 1292456 1156691 16.7 4.4 1337803 0.9

rowings 189969 188937 148374 28.0 0.5 202402 -6.1estments 426728 398536 359959 18.5 7.1 415135 2.8

n 1148901 1103090 978115 17.5 4.2 1152774 -0.3

et Quality

PA 67799 64206 53458 26.8 5.6

A 37167 32151 25370 46.5 15.6

GNPA 5.9 5.8 5.5

NPA 3.2 2.9 2.6

R(%)(w/o technical write-off) 45.2 49.9 52.5


6/23

State Bank of India




come Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

erest/discount on advances / bills 59976 81078 90537 102590 120306

come on investments 19826 23949 27200 32037 39720

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 236 350 545 415 415

hers 1356 1144 1374 1253 1253

tal Interest Income 81394 106521 119657 136294 161693

hers Income 15825 14351 16035 15923 15923

tal Income 97219 120873 135691 152217 177616

erest on deposits 43235 55644 67465 61066 70226

erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 2562 3886 4124 10146 11668

hers 3071 3700 3737 0 0

erest Expended 48868 63230 75326 86929 103391

32526 43291 44331 49365 58302

her Income 15825 14351 16035 15923 15923

tal Income 48351 57643 60366 65288 74225

mployee 15212 16974 18381 22795 25719

her Expenses 7804 9095 10904 13388 15105

erating Expenses 23015 26069 29284 36183 40824

P( Rs Cr) 25336 31574 31081 29105 33401ovisions 17071 13090 11131 14253 16594

T 8265 18483 19950 14852 16808

x 0 6776 5846 4611 5042

et Profit 8265 11707 14105 10241 11765

posits 933933 1043647 1202740 1383151 1590623

ange (%) 16.1 11.7 15.2 15.0 15.0

which CASA Dep 461521 467607 539063 580923 668062

ange (%) 49 45 45 42 42

rrowings 119569 127006 169183 215867 248248

vestments 295601 312198 350927 32037 39720

ans 756719 867579 1045617 1202459 1382828

atio

eld on Advances 7.9 9.3 8.7 8.5 8.7

eld on Investments 6.9 7.9 8.0 7.4 8.0

eld on Funds 7.0 8.4 8.0 0.0 0.0

st of deposits 4.6 5.3 5.6 6.3 6.5

st of Borrowings 4.7 6.0 4.6 4.7 4.7

st of fund 4.6 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.6

luation

OE(%) 12.7 13.9 14.3 9.3 9.8

ok Value 1023 1251 1446 1617 1617BV 2.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.9


7/23

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute 1.1 57.1 82.9

el. to Nifty 4.7 55.2 70


omoters 63.7 63.7 63.7

22.5 22.8 22.9

I 5.7 3.2 3.1

hers 8.1 10.4 10.4

Financials Rs, Cro

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 4312 4207 2.5 2865 50.5EBITDA 2000 1843 8.5 1275 56.9

PAT 1531 1362 12.4 881 73.8

EBITDA Margin 46.4% 43.8% 260bps 44.5% 190bps

PAT Margin 35.5% 32.4% 310bps 30.8% 480bps

The stock at its CMP of Rs 609 is trading at 22.1x of one year forward FY14E EPS of 27.

and company has posted very strong 3QFY14 results however on account stretch

valuations we do not see much upside to stock and therefore we turn neutral with

650.


ock Performance-%


MP 609

wk Range H/L 650/385

SE Symbol SUNPHARMA

524715

View & Valuation

The operating EBITDA for the quarter came at Rs 1975 Cr grew by 57 % YoY and OP

stands at 46 %.There is improvement in OPM by 200 bps during the quarter owing

stronger operating metrics. The RM cost as percentage of sales was 14 % versus 15 %

the same corresponding period last fiscal. The employ cost as percentage of sales was

% in current quarter verses 14% for 3QFY13.The company managed to control its oth

expenses during the 3QFY14 and has dropped by 100 bps at 24 % of the sales.

The net profit for the quarter came at Rs 1531 Cr compared to Rs. 881Cr for Q3 last ye

up 74% YoY. The NPM for the 3QFY14 came at 36%.The other income for the 3QFY4 w

Rs 134 Cr and Tax rate was at 12 %.

The company on its R&D said that in the 3QFY14, ANDA for 5 products were filed. Aft

counting these, and adjusting for filings that were dropped, cumulatively ANDAs for 4

products have been filed with the USFDA (as on December 31, 2013). ANDAs for

products received approvals in the third quarter, taking the total number of approvals to 3

(as on December 31, 2013). ANDAs for 131 products now await USFDA approval, includi

14 tentative approvals.

kt Capital (Rs, Cr)

The management of the company after 3QFY14 results has revised its FY14E reven

guidance to 29 % from 25 % earlier. Guidance is at constant exchange rate. The compafurther said that capex for the FY14 would be on higher side of earlier guidance. The t

rate for the full year would be 15 % and R&D expected to be in the range of 6-8% of t

Sales for the FY'14.ne Year Price vs Nifty

(Source: Company/Eastwi

126,119

verage Daily Volume 535293

fty 6048

evious Target Price

esult Update NEUTRAL Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries limited posted 3QFY14 results above street expectatiowith total revenues including other operating income at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoY led

robust growth in US formulations and Taro business. The stellar performance of compa

was supported well from domestic operations as well. The US formulation business gr

by more 56 % YoY to USD 434 Mn while International formulation sales outside US gr

by 16 % YoY to USD 84 Mn. Overall international revenues accounted for more than 75

of total revenues for the quarter. The Sales of branded prescription formulations in Ind

was Rs. 947 Cr up by 20% Yoy from Q3FY13 last year. The API business for the quart

witness some decline with sales falls to Rs 174 Cr translating decline of 17 % YoY.arket DataSE Code

SUNPHARMA

Robust Performance

arget Price 650

7%pside

hange from Previous

"NEUTRAL"17th Feb' 14



8/23

SUNPHARMA

les and PAT Trend (Rs)


Total revenues including other operat

income came at Rs 4312 Cr up 50.5 % YoYby robust growth in US formulations a

Taro business.

PM %


PM %



There is improvement in OPM by 200 b

during the owing to stronger operat

metrics.

The NPM for the 3QFY14 came at 36%.T

other income for the 3QFY4 was Rs 134 Cr



9/23

BUY

1M 1yr YTD

bsolute -4.5 -3 -2

el. to Nifty -1.7 -4.3 -14


omoters 36.8 36.8 36.8

23.8 23.8 23.1

I 10.6 10.9 10.8

hers 28.8 28.5 29.3


Revenue 2282 2347 (2.8) 2070 10.2

EBITDA 403 533 (24.4) 492 -18.1PAT 261 376 (30.6) 338 -22.8

EBITDA Margin 17.7% 22.7% (500bps) 23.8% (610bps

PAT Margin 11.4% 16.0% (460bps) 16.3% (490bps

arget Price 440

arket DataSE Code 500087

The net profits for the quarter came at Rs 261 Cr and NPM stands at 11.43 %. The Rs

Cr Forex gain is included in the other income during the quarter. The tax rate for the quar

was nearly at same rate as in corresponding last quarter at 25 %.

The Company filed 10 ANDA's in the last nine months and got 6 approvals for the sam

period. It has 35 ANDA's under approval as on 31stDecember 2013. The few of t

approval products are commercialized. Cipla Medpro formed as acquisition

Medpro,South Africa last year added 500 Cr to top line and 50 Cr to the operating prof

during the quarter.

ne Year Price vs Nifty

(Source: Company/Eastwi

30,591

verage Daily Volume 617290

fty 6,001

The operating EBITDA for the quarter under review came Rs 403 Cr and OPM at 17.

%.The OPM declines by more than 600 bps YoY due to the increase in the R&D and t

ramp up in the Staff cost during the quarter. The employ cost as percentage of sales stan

at 14 % while it was 12 % for the same time last fiscal. The other expenses as percenta

of sales were 27% for the 3QFY14 versus 25 % in 3QFY13.The other expenditu

increased largely due to rise in R&D expenses and rise in the cost owing to filings a

setting up of the front end during the quarter. The R&D expenses 4.5% of Sales during t

quarter.

450/354

SE Symbol CIPLA

wk Range H/L

CIPLA

esult Update

MP 381

Cipla Limited posted its 3QFY14 results with its standalone net revenues at Rs 2282 up

% YoY led by healthy growth in export business with well support from India operations

The revenues from export business including formulations and API grew by 36 % to 15

Cr for the quarter while domestic business grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr.The growth

export revenues was primarily due to growth in anti-retroviral, anti-cancer, anti-allergic a

anti-biotic segments.15%pside

hange from Previous

evious Target Price

The stock at its CMP of Rs 381 is trading at 19.58 x of one year forward FY14E EPS of R

19.40.The stock has reacted negatively after 3QFY14 results however we dontsee a

downside risks to our estimates. We further believe that Cipla-Medpro would be earni

accretive in medium to long term horizons and we view the recent correction a good en

point for the stock. We maintain our view BUY for the stock with Target Price of

440.


ock Performance-%


kt Capital (Rs, Cr)

View & Valuation

The management of the company after the results said that the Global respiratory u

expects some of launches in the next year. It has set up new global respiratory team dur

the quarter. The Combination inhalers planned to launch in FY'15.Company expects to

more than 5% of Sales on the back of ramp up filings for the FY'15.The Capex is 90

during the quarter and expects to be Rs 400 Cr FY'14. The Rollover Capex of previous ye

is Rs 150 Cr during the year.

"BUY"14th Feb' 14



10/23

evenue Trend %


PM & NPM Trend %



Net revenues at Rs 2282 up 10 % YoY led

healthy growth in export business with w

support from India operations to.

The OPM declines by more than 600 bps Y

due to the increase in the R&D and the ra

up in the Staff cost during the quarter.

CIPLA

usiness Trend


The revenues from export business includ

formulations and API grew by 36 % to 15

Cr for the quarter while domestic busin

grew by 9% YoY to 1044 Cr.



11/23

- Soman Ceremics Ltd.

MP 131

rget Price 11595

side -12.2%

21.1%

E Code 531548

E Symbol

61/155

452

3,109

fty 6,001

1M 1yr YTD

solute 13.2 59.9 103.2

l. to Nifty 16.0 58.1 97.6

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

omoters 63.3 6 3.3 63.3

2.8 0.8 0.2

1.7 1.9 2.0

hers 32.2 34.0 34.5

Valuations :

Financials Rs, Crore3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 284.5 305.6 -6.9% 267.2 6.5%

EBITDA 17.0 19.4 -12.8% 22.1 -23.3%

PAT 4.8 6.0 -20.5% 8.2 -41.4%

EBITDA Margin 6.0% 6.4% (40) bps 8.3% (230) b

PAT Margin 1.7% 2.0% (30) bps 3.1% (140) b

Management is expected to achive a top-line growth of arround 20-25% in FY14E.

Management Guidence FY14E

(Standalone) (Source: Company/Eastwind Resea


At the current CMP of Rs. 131, the stock is trading at a PE of 15.1x and 11.0x of FY14E and FY1

The company can post RoE of 17.0% and 17.1% & EPS of Rs. 8.7 and Rs. 10.8 FY14E and FY1

We are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors to book profits at curr

level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce new ventures, curtail costs a

the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in the latter part of FY2015

boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our target multiple to 10x of FY

and price target to Rs 115.

yr Forward P/B

are Holding Pattern-%

ock Performance-%

arket Data

erage Daily Volume

For Quarter Ended 2QFY14

For the quarter ended September 2013, Somany Ceramic registered 6.5% rise in sales to

284.5 crore.

OPM fell 230 basis points to 6.0% taking OP down 8.3% to Rs 17.0 crore.

Other income also rise 77.8% to Rs 48 lakh and interest cost decreased 8.9% to Rs 4.6 crore. As depreciation increased 9.1% to Rs 5.7 crore, PBT fell 41.1% to Rs 7.1 crore.

Taxation fell 40.3% to Rs 2.3 crore (tax incidence grew from 32.5% to 32.9) and PAT fell 41

to Rs 4.8 crore.

For Nine Month Ended 9MFY14

For the nine month ended December 2013, Somany Ceramic registered 18.7% rise in sales to

848.8 crore.

However, OPM dived from 8.5% to 6.4% taking OP down 10.7% to Rs 54.5 crore.

Other income jumped 28.1% to Rs 1 crore and interest cost decreased 8.2% to Rs 13.8 crore.

As depreciation increased 8.7% to Rs 16.5 crore, PBT fell 20.3% to Rs 25.2 crore.

Taxation fell to 15.5% to Rs 8.6 crore but tax incidence grew from 32.1% to 34.0% which fin

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

wk Range H/L

evious Target Price

SOMANYCERA

ange from Previous

"Outlook Challenging in near term.."

The Q3FY2014 results were weak marked by a double-digit decline in the profit after tax on

back of subdued increase in fuel cost, dollar v/s rupee volatility and a pressure on the mar

The management expect improvement in the demand conditions in the near term and guide

revenue growth of 20% in FY14E-15E, however we expect the revenue growth to

somewhere arround 12-15% and financial performance to remain weak on account of mar

pressure. Consequently, we are downgrading the rating to "Reduce" and advise investors

book profits at current level. Over the longer term, we expect the efforts to introduce n

ventures, curtail costs and the expected economic revival driven by an uptick in demand in

latter part of FY2015, to boost its fortunes. In the interim period, we are reducing our tar

multiple to 10x of FY15E and price target to Rs 115.

Reduce

Result highlights :

esult update

"Reduce"13th Feb' 14



12/23


mmount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Soman Ceremics Ltd.

y financials :

urce: Company/Eastwind Research) (Figures In crore)


ARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

erformance

evenue 446 542 720 879 1054 1250 1438

ther Income 2 3 1 1 3 3 3

otal Income 448 545 721 880 1056 1253 1440

BITDA 42 56 68 74 86 83 95

BIT 28 41 50 56 65 59 75

EPRICIATION 14 15 17 18 21 24 26

TREST COST 16 13 17 21 20 17 17

BT 14 31 34 36 48 44 60

AX 5 10 11 11 15 14 19

eported PAT 9 20 24 25 33 30 41

vidend 1 2 3 3 5 6 6

PS 2.5 5.9 6.9 7.3 9.4 8.7 11.9

PS 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.9

eild %

BITDA % 9.5% 10.3% 9.4% 8.4% 8.1% 6.6% 6.6%

BT % 3.0% 5.6% 4.8% 4.1% 4.5% 3.5% 4.2%

PM % 2.0% 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.9%

arning Yei ld % 28.5% 18.8% 18.0% 19.5% 14.6% 6.6% 9.1%

vidend Yeild % 3.9% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.4% 1.4%

OE % 13.5% 24.6% 23.0% 20.1% 21.3% 17.0% 19.4%

OCE% 12.3% 13.8% 15.7% 16.6% 17.8% 9.8% 12.0%

osition

et Worth 65 83 104 126 153 177 211

otal Debt 138 162 158 151 142 130 130

apital Employed 202 245 262 276 295 307 341

o of Share 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

MP 9 31 38 38 65 131 131

aluation

ook Value 18.8 24.0 30.1 36.5 44.4 51.2 61.2

/B 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.6 2.1

t/Coverage 1.7 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.3 3.4 4.4

/E 3.5 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.8 15.0 11.0

et Sales/CE 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.1 4.2

et Sales/Equity 6.9 6.6 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.1 6.8


13/23

Coal India LTD.

261

307

33018%

-7%

533278

176226 Fluctuation in Domestic and international coal price impacted coal offtake

17622

6001

1M 1yr YTD

solute -1.3 -21.2 -21.4

l. to Nifty 2.8 8.8 8.6

Rescheduling Date of hearing stands a key concern


omoters 90.0 90.0 90.0

5.5 5.5 5.4

2.4 2.3 2.3

hers 2.1 2.2 2.4

Realization gain on Revised Coal Price

Financials : Q3FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q3FY13 Q2FY1

Net Revenue 16928 -2.3 9.8 17325 1541

EBITDA 4104 -4.3 46.9 4288 279Depriciation 442 5.2 -10.7 420 49

Interest Cost 10 0.0 25.6 10

Tax 1930 4.9 36.6 1839 141

PAT 3894 -11.4 27.6 4395 305(In Cr

1

kt Capital (Rs Crores)

372/238

fty

Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 Crore in this fisca

on account of revision in dry fuel prices.CIL (Coal India Ltd) has revised and rationalize

the basic notified prices of all the grades of non-coking coal except GI, G2 and G5.Th

estimated additional revenue due to revision of basic notified price for the curren

financial year is Rs 2,119 cr. Though the incremental revenue is a positive sign but it fai

to change our previous valuation.

erage Daily Volume (Nos.)


ock Performance-%


yr Forward P/B

Source - Comapany/EastWind Research

In this quarter the international coal price were relatively down by 9% against Q2FY1

while the domestic coal price were showed upward movement. So the Major domesti

consumers of coal imported coal at lower price, hence it impacted the off takes anrevenue of CIL slipped -2% YOY and unable to meet the target off takes. Govt decisio

related labor strikes impacted the productions of CIL too. Sequential increase in tax rat

further contracted the NPM%. From January we have seen a recovery in internationa

coal price which is positive sign for CIL.

Competition Appellate Tribunal stays Rs 1,773 Crore fine on CIL, and will decide on th

matter on next hearing 16th April 2014 (Rescheduled from 11th Feb 2014). The quantum

of penalty Rs 1,773.05 Crore is equal to three per cent of the PSU's average turnover fo

the last three years. We believe, A Rs 1800-crore fine could possibly mean less profits fo

the company and less dividend income for its owners. But as the main owner, th

government, will pocket this amount in the form of a fine, it will not be poorer in an

way.

arket Data

E Code

COALINDIA

CIL reported Rs.16928 Cr Sales (-2% YOY) against Rs.17325 Cr in Q3FY13 due to poor o

takes of the coal during the quarter. Q3FY14 PAT slipped to -11% to Rs.3894 Cr again

Rs.4395 Cr in Q3FY13.Q3FY14 EBIDTA/ton remained flat YOY at Rs.350/ton while it

increased 36% through QOQ. EBIDTA margin corrected in this quarter to 24% from 18% iQ2FY14.Depriciation slipped 11% to 442Cr against 495 Cr in Q2FY14, moderating th

burden on EBIDTA.

On the expenditure side contractual expenses increased ~20% to Rs.154/ton from

Rs.128/ton in Q2FY14.Powerfuel cost and other expenses per ton remained flat, whil

cost of project per ton decreased to Rs149/ton from Rs.206/ton in the previous quarter

Poor Realization of Coal India showed little uptick like 2% to Rs.1445/ton.E Symbol

wk Range H/L

side

ange from Previous

esult Update

MP

rget Price

evious Target Price

"Buy"14th Feb' 14



14/23

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

50234 62415 68303 69960

7573 5123 6556 8372

1755 2013 2333 2591

4580 4901 5802 604920481 26705 27943 28943

40390 40857 50219 53705

9843 21558 18084 16255

1673 1969 1813 1860

79 54 45 34

5595 6484 7623 7310

10868 20588 17356 17921

33 51 36 40

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

431 431 436 452

416 425 433 4651073 1183 1441 1468

404744 390243 377447 364736

1066 1105 1155 1240

14

vg Man Power (in numbers)

oductivity Per Man

oal Offtake in MT

epriciation

terest Cost

x

AT

OE %

PERATING MATRIX

al Production in MT

venue Generation From unit Ton

ew & Outlook

L PERFORMANCE

et Revenue from Operation

ost Of Projects & Contractual

wer and fuel

ntractual expensesmployee benefit Expence

penditure

ITDA

Coal India LTD.

e revised our estimates due to sequential poor production and off takes of CIL. We

pect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor

f take capabilities of CIL. Management showed his confidence about their coal

oduction target and coal off take target for FY2014E, in previous quarter, which is2mt and 492mt respectively. But Due to sequential poor production and off take we

vised the target to 464mt and 475mt respectively. Also, we expect CILsmargins to

cline during FY2014 due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other

penses. We are expecting flat sales growth for 2014.Coal India Ltd sprang a positive

rprise by reporting higher-than-expected realizations as well as earnings before

terest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda). Average price realizations

creased by 2.3% sequentially to Rs.1,444.87 per tonne which is positive sign for future

owth.

arlier we suggested, if earnings falls, then price might go beyond 256, but p/b level

ay be maintained , else we assume that since the company is a good dividend paying

mpany with Roe above 30% we assume p/b should remain above 3. We see Coal India

a attractive valuation to go long from the current dips. So we stick to our previous

timates and recommend Maintain Buy CIL at price dips with a target price of Rs.307/-.

ecommendation



15/23

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

6316 6316 6316 6316

20956 26998 34137 42156

27273 33314 40453 48472

343 1334 1305 10781620 33 0 0

2545 22461 28271 31144

772 645 829 837

1404 12387 15595 20447

5443 8490 9785 12385

0 779 759 712

12035 12065 12681 12754

2211 2057 1848 3496

610 845 1017 1181

4402 5586 6071 5618

2169 3419 5663 10480

39078 45806 58203 62236

8066 11180 13478 16189

17921 21646 24688 25479

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

0.0 5.7 5.5 4.0

0.0 17.3 32.6 27.5

4.9 22.8 29.2 52.7

1.7 4.3 4.3 4.2

1.0 3.7 3.1 2.8

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

10727 12819 16323 15948-131 -3822 3565 -6839

10596 8997 19888 9109

950 697 -10410 -1833

2163 2911 -7382 -7852

13708 12606 2095 -575

Down 21% from its 52week High

Up 14% from its 52 week Low

15

sh from Operation

rading At :

anges In Working Capital

et Cash From Operation

sh From Investment

sh from Finance

et Cash Flow during year

ATIOS

B

S

ASH FLOWS

ebtor to Turnover%

editors to Turnover%

ventories to Turnover%

sh and bank balances

S PERFORMANCE

are capital

serve & Surplus

tal equity

ng-term borrowingsort-term borrowings

ng-term provisions

ngible assets

pital work-in-progress

ng-term loans and advances

ventories

ade receivables

Coal India LTD.

ade payables

ort-term provisions

tal liabilities

tangibles

ort-term loans and advances

tal Assets



16/23


17/23

CANARA BANK

anksloan grew by 32% YoY led by retail sector growth of 55% YOY followed by SME

6% YoY), Infrastructure (24% YoY). Within infrastructure loan growth, power generation

nd transmission growth was strong at 63% YoY. Deposits grew by 1% YoY and 4% QoQ

which current and saving account deposits grew by 19% and 16% YoY respectively. In

eposits profile, term deposits de-grew by 3% YoY which was took flat growth in overall

eposits as share of term deposits reduce to 77% from 80% in last quarter. CASA ratio

as declined by 123 bps QoQ to 23%. Credit deposits ratio for the quarter stood at

0.4% versus 71.8% in previous quarter and 67.4% in last quarter.

argin compression on account of higher cost of fund

M compressed by 15 bps YoY to 2.21 largely due to lower loan yield 70 bps YoY

hereas cost of fund increased by 120 bps YoY. Higher cost of fund was due to higher

st of bulk deposits. However declining share of bulk deposits and increasing CASA

tio restricted to escalate funding cost. Yield on loan declined by 70 bps YoY despite of

ealthy loan growth was due to lower base rate among peers.

ealthy loan growth led by retail sector

aluation & View

anara banks performance was muted all through despite of healthy loan growth.

anara bank was unable to translate its balance sheet growth in profit & loos account

ue to lower base rate among peers. Banksasset quality was deteriorating sequentially

ong with higher fresh slippage. PCR was lowest among peers (without technical write

f). We are disappointed with growth parameters of the bank. We have neutral view on

e stock.

aluation Band




18/23

Moderate growth in NII was due to margin

compression

Higher opex and moderate NII growth led

muted operating profit growth

Profitability declined due to moderate NII

growth, higher provisions and higher tax rat

CANARA BANK

hart Focus




19/23


CANARA BANK

uarterly Performance


arterly Result 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 % YoY % QoQ 3QFY14E % Variation

erest/discount on advances / bills 7360 6964 5958 23.5 5.7 7298 0.9

ome on investments 2575 2597 2460 4.7 -0.9

2701 -4.7

erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 149 93 127 17.1 60.3 216 -30.8

ers 0 0 0 - -13.5 0 -

al Interest Income 10084 9654 8544 18.0 4.4 10214 -1.3

ers Income 851 773 846 0.7 10.1 1006 -15.3

al Income 10935 10427 9390 16.5 4.9 11220 -2.5

erest on deposits 7311 6923 6307 15.9 5.6 0

erest Expended 7857 7463 6556 19.8 5.3 7608 3.3

2227 2191 1988 12.0 1.6 2606 -14.5

er Income 851 773 846 0.7 10.1 1006 -15.3

al Income 3078 2964 2834 8.6 3.9 3612 -14.8

ployee 873 933 831 5.1 -6.3 1127 -22.5

er Expenses 614 607 486 26.3 1.2 751 -18.3

erating Expenses 1488 1539 1317 12.9 -3.4 1878 -20.8

P( Rs Cr) 1591 1425 1516 4.9 11.6 1734 -8.2

visions 1052 674 626 68.0 56.0 700 50.3

T 539 751 891 -39.4 -28.2 1034 -47.8

130 125 180 -27.8 4.0 258 -49.7

t Profit 409 626 711 -42.4 -34.6 775 -47.2

ance Sheet

posits 408924 391613 323963 26.2 4.4 400424 2.1

SA(%) 23.1 24.3 20.0 0.0

n 287700 281104 218242 31.8 2.3 291913 -1.4

estments 130359 119481 118835 9.7 9.1 127099 2.6

et Quality

PA 8,074 7,475 6,090 32.6 8.0

A 6870 6459 5134 33.8 6.4

GNPA 2.8 2.7 2.8 NPA 2.4 2.3

R(%) (w/o technical write-off) 14.9 13.6


20/23


CANARA BANK


come Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

terest Income 18752 23064 30851 34078 39193 47413

terest Expense 13071 15241 23161 26199 30682 35244

I 5681 7823 7689 7879 8511 12169

hange (%) #DIV/0! 37.7 -1.7 2.5 8.0 43.0

on Interest Income 2858 2703 2928 3153 3817 3817

otal Income 8538 10526 10617 11032 12328 15986

hange (%) #DIV/0! 23.3 0.9 3.9 11.8 29.7

perating Expenses 3478 4419 4674 5142 5947 7194

e Provision Profits 5061 6107 5943 5890 6381 8792

hange (%) #DIV/0! 20.7 -2.7 -0.9 8.3 37.8

ovisions 2039 2081 1860 2218 3347 3565

BT 3021 4026 4083 3672 3034 5228

AT 3021 4026 3283 2872 2399 3869

hange (%) 45.8 33.2 -18.5 -12.5 -16.5 61.3

alance Sheet

eposits( Rs Cr) 234651 293973 327054 355856 409234 470620

hange (%) #DIV/0! 25 11 9 15 15

which CASA Dep 68261 83117 79611 86061 102878 118310

hange (%) #DIV/0! 22 -4 8 20 15

orrowings( Rs Cr) 8441 14262 15525 20283 24439 28105

vestments( Rs Cr) 69677 83700 102057 121133 133305 168631

ans( Rs Cr) 169335 212467 232490 242177 293034 339919

hange (%) #DIV/0! 25 9 4 21 16

atio

vg. Yield on loans 8.2 8.0 10.1 10.1 9.6 10.0

vg. Yield on Investments 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.7 7.5

vg. Cost of Deposit 5.2 4.8 6.7 7.1 7.0 6.9

vg. Cost of Borrowimgs 9.3 7.0 7.7 4.7 7.0 7.0

aluation

ook Value 358 452 512 562 639 710

MP 410 627 474 393 214 214

BV 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3


21/23

V- Finolex Cables Ltd.

MP 81

rget Price 90

evious 73

side 11%

ange from 0%

E Code 500144

E Symbol

wk Range 41/92

kt Capital 1,238

erage Daily 94,300

fty 6,084

1M 1yr YTD

solute (4.1) 46.7 78.0

l. to Nifty (2.7) 43.7 71.0


omoters 35.8 35.8 35.8

1.8 1.1 1.0

9.8 10.2 10.5

hers 52.5 52.9 52.8

Financials Rs, Crore


Revenue 563.1 593.1 -5.1% 534.3 5.4%

EBITDA 44.3 76.4 -42.0% 42.9 3.2%

PAT 24.5 80.0 -69.4% 24.0 2.1%

EBITDA Margin 7.9% 9.3% (140) bps 8.0% (10) bp

PAT Margin 4.3% 12.8% (850) bps 4.5% (20) bp

(Standalo


(Source: Company/ Eastwind Research)

We cut our earnings estimates to factor volume decline in electrical & communication ca

segment, margin decline in copper rod segment and losses in the others segment. Consequen

we cut our earnings estimates by 8.6% for FY14E (Rs. 11.6/Share) and 4.1% for FY15E (

12.6/Share). At the CMP of Rs. 81 stock is trading at PE of 7.0/6.4 of FY14E/15E. We revised o

rating on stock from "Buy" to "Hold". However owing to slower pace of economic growth furt

we advised our readers to book part profit on stock and hold the balance with a target price

Rs. 90

"Reasonable prospects..."

esult update

yr Forward P/B


ock Performance-%

Book Partial Profit

Valuation :

FCL being one of the leading players in the cable industry seems well placed to capture hu

opportunities considering the strengths & the industry in which the Company is operat

Derivative losses coupled with bleak performance by communication cable segment were

major reasons for de-rating of the stock in past which in our view seems to have been overdo

The companysLT division is doing very well, they have recently entered into HT and Extra H

Voltage (EHV) cable verticals. The company has market share of around 15-16 percent in b

electrical and telecommunication verticals. Further the company has approved setting u

captive 5 MW solar power plant at its manufacturing facilities at Urse, Pune at an estimated c

of Rs 40 crore.

Outlook :

arket Data

Finolex Cables (FCL) Q3FY14 PAT of Rs. 24.5 crore was below ourestimate owing to lower sa

and EBITDA margin. Decline in communication cable segment segments as well as high r

material prices resulted in flat EBITDA growth of 3.2% yoy. Sales rose 5.58% to Rs. 557.55 cr

in the quarter ended December 2013 as against Rs. 528.07 crore during the previous qua

ended December 2012. Third Quarter result were marginally below our expectaton which

us to revise our estimate on stock, we cut our EPS forecast for FY14E-15E by 8.6%/4.1%. E

after posting marginally below result the stock is quite attractive at current market price of

81 and left a limited upside of 11%, however we advised our reader to book a part profit

stock

The copper rods segment was initially set up as backward integration for the cables segment. T

excess production after captive consumption is sold off to third parties at market price. Howev

owing to thin and declining margins from third party transactions, FCL is gradually reducing

exposure to the segment. The contribution of the segment to the top-line has decreased fr

21% in FY2010 to ~5% currently. This trend is expected to continue, thereby improving toverall EBIT margin of the company.

FINCABLES

"Book Partial Profit"13th Feb' 14



22/23


Finolex Cables Ltd.

y financials :

urce: Company/ Eastwind Research)


PARTICULAR 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 1342 1619 2036 2064 2271 2315 2500

Other Income 51 24 26 36 24 47 42

Total Income 1392 1643 2062 2100 2295 2362 2542

BITDA 100 195 174 175 229 241 258

BIT 61 157 135 135 182 191 205

Depriciation 39 37 39 39 47 50 53

ntrest Cost 32 19 19 26 12 14 14

BT -30 89 107 109 171 234 233

TAX 5 32 22 11 26 56 56

Derrivative Loss -109 -74 -34 -36 -23 10 0

Reported PAT -35 58 85 98 145 178 185

Dividend 3 9 11 12 18 23 23

PS -2.3 3.8 5.6 6.4 9.5 11.6 13.1

DPS 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.5

Yeild %

BITDA % 7.4% 12.0% 8.5% 8.5% 10.1% 10.4% 10.8%

NPM % -2.5% 3.5% 4.1% 4.7% 6.3% 7.5% 7.3%

arning Yeild % -12.0% 7.4% 11.7% 20.6% 20.9% 14.3% 16.2%

Dividend Yeild % 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9%

ROE % -6.0% 9.0% 11.9% 12.3% 15.7% 16.5% 15.4%

ROCE% -4.0% 6.3% 8.7% 10.1% 13.1% 14.3% 13.7%

Position

Net Worth 596 643 717 800 924 1079 1249

Total Debt 296 275 260 172 184 160 160

Capital Employed 892 918 978 972 1109 1239 1409

No of Share 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

CMP 19 51 47 31 46 81 81

Valuation

Book Value 39.0 42.0 46.9 52.3 60.4 70.6 81.7

/B 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0

nt/Coverage 1.9 8.4 7.0 5.2 14.6 13.6 14.6

/E -8.3 13.4 8.5 4.9 4.8 7.0 6.4


23/23

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