Investment Analysis - Project Report

7/28/2019 Investment Analysis - Project Report

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No. Item Unit Value Source

1 Installed capacity MW 48 The feasibility study report, p1-1

2 Annual operation hours Hour 4,576 The feasibility study report, p1-1

3 Overall generation efficiency 89.82%

3.1 Effective power coefficient 90.00% The feasibili ty study report, p16-2

3.2 Internal consumption of power plant 0.20% The feasibility study report, p16-2

4 Electricity average tariff (VAT include CNY/KWh 0.1513

5 Equity ratio 30% The feasibility study report, p16-2

6 Total investment CNY 198,574,900 The feasibility study report, annual investment sheet in Section 15 (excel fi Year 1

6.1 Constrcution CNY 92,263,700 The feasibility study report, Section 15 (excel file) 64,584,600

6.2 Machinery / Equipments CNY 43,531,600 The feasibility study report, Section 15 (excel file) 21,765,800

6.3 Others Machinery/ Equipments CNY 17,159,800 The feasibility study report, Section 15 (excel file) 10,295,900

6.4 Temporary works CNY 11,064,800 The feasibility study report, Section 15 (excel file) 7,745,400

6.5Other works (e.g. Connection to

the transmission grid)CNY 34,555,000 The feasibility study report, Section 15 (excel file) 23,757,500

7 Construction period Month 24 The feasibility study report, p10-25

8 Operation time Year 30 The feasibility study report, p16-2

9 Value of fixed assets CNY 198,574,800

10 Depretiation Rate 4% The feasibility study report, p16-4

10.1 Rate of f ixed assets maintenance 1% The feasibility study report, p16-4

The feasibility study report, p16-3. The interest in construction period form fixed assets a

proposed project is put into operation.

Basic Data Table

The feasibility study report, p16-2. Overall generation efficiency = effective power

coefficient 1 - internal consumption of power plant)

Endorsed by Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Committee, referred as Yun

Number [2005] No.702


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10.2Rate of insurance premium of fixed

assets

0.25% The feasibility study report, p16-4

10.3 Employee population 55 The feasibility study report, p16-4

10.4 Annual salary per capita CNY 15000 The feasibil ity study report, p16-4

10.5 Rate of welfarism 49.50% The feasibility study report, p16-4

10.6 Material cost CNY/kW 5 The feasibility study report, p16-4

10.7 Other costs CNY/kW 24 The feasibility study report, p16-4

10.8 Royalties for water use CNY/kW 0.004 The feasibility study report, p16-4

11 Rate of VAT 6% The feasibility study report, p16-5.

11.1 Rate of city construction tax 1% The feasibility study report, p16-5. It is levied baed on VAT.

11.2 Rate of additional education fee 4% The feasibility study report, p16-5. It is levied baed on VAT.

12 Rate of income tax

12.1 I, IIyear 0 The feasibility study report, p16-5

12.2 III, IV, V year 16.50% The feasibility study report, p16-5

12.3 > V year 33% The feasibility study report, p16-5

13 CERs Unit price ERU/Ton 8

14 Exchange rate ERU:RMB 10


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Year 2

#########

#########

6,863,900

3,319,400

#########

fter the

a Price


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Name of Project

Country

ASSUMPTIONS

Electricity Production 1 Yes

Emission Reductions 0 No

Loan 1 Yes

Capacity Installed (MW) 48

Load Factor (h/year) 4576

Overall Generation efficiency (%) 89.82%

Expected annual distribution of dividends 0%

Equity ratio 30% 70%

Combined Margin for production 0.8434 tCO2/MWh

Currency CNY

INVESTMENTS

Year 1 Year 2

1 Initial Investments (including taxes if any): CNY

Construction CNY 64,584,600 27,679,100

Machinery / Equipments CNY 21,765,800 21,765,800

Others Machinery/ Equipments CNY 10,295,900 6,863,900

Temporary works CNY 7,745,400 3,319,400Other works (e.g. Connection to t CNY 23,757,500 10,797,500

Depretiation Rate 4.00%

2 Financing:

Loan(s) Amount CNY 139,002,430

Tenor 20 years

Grace Period 1 years

Interest rate 6.12%

48 MW Duduluo River Hydroelectric Power Plant

China


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REVENUES

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6

1 Net Revenues

Net Revenues - Electricity

Electricity kWh 4,932,000 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,8

Price CNY 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142

Net Revenues - Carbon Credits

Carbon generation (tCO2e) 0 0 166,393 166,393 166,393 166,393

Carbon price CNY 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0

Construction Period


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Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Year

197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287

0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.14

70.0 70.

Operation Period


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Name of Project

Country

Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Yea

1 Investments: CNY 128,149,200 70,425,700 0 0 0

Construction CNY 64,584,600 27,679,100 0 0 0

Machinery / Equipments CNY 21,765,800 21,765,800 0 0 0

Others Machinery/ Equip CNY 10,295,900 6,863,900 0 0 0

Temporary works CNY 7,745,400 3,319,400 0 0 0

Other works (e.g. Connec CNY 23,757,500 10,797,500 0 0 0

2 Depreciation: 4% per year 0 1,985,600 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,9Year 1 4% per year 0 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,1

Year 2 4% per year 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,8Year 3 4% per year 0 0 0

Year 4 4% per year 0 0 Year 5 4% per year 0

3 Operating costs: CNY 0 2,216,428 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,4

Lump Sum type: Raw Mat CNY 0 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 2

Lump Sum type: Power a CNY 0 0 0 0 0

Lump Sum type: Labor CNY 0 308,300 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,2

Royalties for water use CNY 0 19,728 789,151 789,151 789,151 7

Lump sum: O&M general CNY 0 496,400 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,9

% Type: Other CNY 0 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,1Working Capital CNY 0 0 0 0 0

4 Insurance: 0.25% of investments 0 124,100 496,437 496,437 496,437 4

5 Certifications: CNY 0 0 0 0 0

6 Financing: CPLTD 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,9

Interest 8,506,949 8,081,601 7,656,254 7,230,906 6,8

1 2 3 4 5

7 Income Tax: 0% 0% 0% 16.5% 16.5%

Unit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Yea

1 Net Revenues 0 699,200 41,280,526 41,280,526 41,280,526 41,2

Net Revenues - Electricity CNY 0 699,200 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,9

d ti kWh 0 4 932 000 197 287 834 197 287 834 197 287 834 197 2

REVENUES


China

INVESTMENTS AND EXPENSES


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Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Ye

7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,95,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,125,968 5,1

2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,817,028 2,80 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,400,274 5,4

240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 2

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,2

789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 7

1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,9

1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 4

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 6,950,122 0 0

3,828,127 3,402,779 2,977,432 2,552,085 2,126,737 1,701,390 1,276,042 850,695 425,347 0 0

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%

Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23 Ye

27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,9

27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 969 121 27 9


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Name of Project

Country

Unit ='Assumptions a Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6

Net Revenues - Electricity 0 699,200 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,

production kWh 0 4,932,000 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,

Sales price CNY 0 0 0 0 0

Net Revenues - Carbon Credits 0 0 0 0 0

ERs Production (tCO2e) 0 0 166,393 166,393 166,393

ER Price 0.0 US$/ton

Total Net Revenues 0 699,200 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,

(-) Total Costs 0 2,340,528 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,

(-) Operating Costs

Lump Sum type: Raw 0 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 Lump Sum type: Power 0 0 0 0 0

Lump Sum type: Labor 0 308,300 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,

Royalties for water use 0 19,728 789,151 789,151 789,151

Lump sum: O&M gener 0 496,400 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,

% Type: Other 0 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,

Working Capital 0 0 0 0 0

- nsurance: , , , ,

(-) Certifications: 0 0 0 0 0

Margin / (EBITDA) 0 -1,641,328 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,

(-) D/D/A machinery 4% 0 1,985,600 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,

(-) Interest expenses 0 8,506,949 8,081,601 7,656,254 7,230,906 6,

Operational Result (EBT) 0 -12,133,876 6,047,817 6,473,164 6,898,512 7,

Profit before tax 0 -12,133,876 6,047,817 6,473,164 6,898,512 7,

(+) D/D/A 0 1,985,600 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,

(-) Investments 128,149,200 70,425,700 0 0 0

Construction 64,584,600 27,679,100 0 0 0

Machinery / Equipments 21,765,800 21,765,800 0 0 0

Others Machinery/ Equipments 10,295,900 6,863,900 0 0 0 Temporary works 7,745,400 3,319,400 0 0 0

Other works (e.g. Connection to the trans 23,757,500 10,797,500 0 0 0

Project Cash Flow -128,149,200 -72,067,028 22,072,410 21,004,338 20,934,156 20,

IRR Project 7.99%


China

Project Cashflow


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Year 13 Year 14 Year 15 Year 16 Year 17 Year 18 Year 19 Year 20 Year 21 Year 22 Year 23

27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,12

197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,834 197,287,83

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,121 27,969,12

5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,711 5,896,71

240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 240,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,375 1,233,37

789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,151 789,15

1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,748 1,985,74

1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,000 1,152,00

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,437 496,43

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,410 22,072,41

7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,99

3,828,127 3,402,779 2,977,432 2,552,085 2,126,737 1,701,390 1,276,042 850,695 425,347 0

10,301,291 10,726,639 11,151,986 11,577,333 12,002,681 12,428,028 12,853,376 13,278,723 13,704,071 14,129,418 14,129,41

10,301,291 10,726,639 11,151,986 11,577,333 12,002,681 12,428,028 12,853,376 13,278,723 13,704,071 14,129,418 14,129,41

7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,992 7,942,99

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

18,672,984 18,532,619 18,392,255 18,251,890 18,111,525 17,971,161 17,830,796 17,690,431 17,550,067 17,409,702 17,409,70


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RUN MACRO SENSITIVITY TO PERFORM ANALYSIS!

Variation Investment Cost

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10

IRR Project 11% 10.62% 9.87% 9.19% 8.56% 7.99% 7.46% 6.97%

Variation O&M Costs Variation O&M Costs

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10

IRR Project 8.59% 8.47% 8.35% 8.23% 8.11% 7.99% 7.87% 7.75%

Variation Electricity Output

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% . . . . . . . .

IRR Project 4.83% 5.49% 6.14% 6.77% 7.39% 7.99% 8.58% 9.16%

Variation Tariff

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10

IRR Project 4.83% 5.49% 6.14% 6.77% 7.39% 7.99% 8.58% 9.16%


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All numbers should

be equal to 1

1

25%

1.25

5.68%

riation O&M Costs 1

25%

1.25

0.00%

1

0.073821684

1

25%.

10.84%

1

25%

1.25

10.84%


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6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

IRR

Variation (% vs base scenario)

Inv O&M Annual electricity output Tariff

Investment Analysis - Project Report

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