Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem...

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Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem Birmingham, March 2017 Kevin Eggers, Principal, Market Development, Anglo American

Transcript of Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem...

Page 1: Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem Birmingham, March 2017 Kevin Eggers, Principal, Market Development, Anglo American

Investing in the Hydrogen EcosystemBirmingham, March 2017

Kevin Eggers, Principal, Market Development, Anglo American

Page 2: Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem Birmingham, March 2017 Kevin Eggers, Principal, Market Development, Anglo American

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CAUTIONARY STATEMENT

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ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM LTD IS A LEADING PRODUCER OF PLATINUM AND

OTHER PLATINUM GROUP METALS

1 Production and supply estimates are based on data from World Platinum Investment Council, Industry and AAPL public reports

7%

63%

Minor PGMs

We mine, refine & market

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)

We account for ~30%1 of

global refined platinum supply

Our metals are widely used

in industrial applications

Fuel processing

Fertilizers

Paint & adhesives

Glass display

Autocatalysts

Jewellery

Platinum

Iridium

Ruthenium Osmium

Rhodium

Palladium

Osmium

76

Os

Sources of

refined

platinum

Refined

platinum

2015 ('000

ounces)

Implied

global

market

share

South Africa 4465 57%

Russia 715 9%

Zimbabwe 405 5%

North

America385 5%

Other 180 2%

Secondary

supply1710 22%

Total 7860 100%

AAPL 2460 31%

New applications for our metals are derived through investing in R&D and

commercialisation initiatives

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Price

(USD/oz)1092 684 630

Gross

Demand

(2014)

Pt Pd Rh% of

Value

Autocat 3 394 7 296 844 54%

Jewellery 2 984 300 20%

Industrial 1 839 2 079 196 21%

Investment 300 837 5%

Sum 8 517 10 512 1 040 100%

THE AUTOMOTIVE AND JEWELLERY SECTORS ACCOUNT FOR ~75% OF THE

PGM VALUE POOL

Demand end use shares, 2016f

Source: SFA (Oxford)

Over 40% of total platinum

demand is from the automotive sectorThe automotive sector

accounts for ~55% of the value pool

Source: Johnson Matthey

As a company we rely on certain expectations of the future to

shape our business – many of these expectations are being challenged

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WE’RE PROACTIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DEMAND FOR OUR METALS

Three key focus

areas for market

development

Grow investment demand via the World Platinum

Investment Council (WPIC) which will promote Pt as

an investment product

Investment demand1

Grow sustainable jewellery demand and reduce

demand elasticity. e.g. by growing Pt purchases in the

Chinese and Indian bridal segments via the industry

funded Platinum Guild International (PGI)

Jewellery demand2

Grow industrial demand through supporting

development of new PGM applications (specific

focus on accelerating fuel cell adoption)

Industrial demand3

Nea

r T

erm

Med

-lo

ng

term

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GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS AND CURRENT MARKET DYNAMICS PRESENT BOTH

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Changing automotive landscape a

threat to our core marketSlow/flat economic growth Ageing populations

Electrification

Automation

Car sharing

Flat or declining sales

Reduced discretionary spend

Declining bridal demand in key

geographies

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PORTFOLIO OF PGM MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES

Overview of our existing market development activities

Investment

model

Direct into

universities/

research facilitiesDirect investment Equity investment

Indirect investment and/or

advocacy programmes, leveraging

partners with similar interests

Example

Projects

FC : Fuel cell Leveraged funding

FC Mining Equipment

FC Rural electrification

ResearchEarly stage

businesses

Mature

businesses

Product

development

FC Vehicle

Fuel cell and Jewellery related initiatives comprise the majority of our spend.

Equity investment focused on stimulating industrial demand

FC Cofimvaba

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ACTIVITIES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GLOBE - ADVOCACY EFFORTS

UNDERWRITE OUR INVESTMENTS & SUPPORT BROADER INDUSTRY INITIATIVES

Advocacy: Industry association

& communications initiatives

Fuel cell & hydrogen related

equity investments

Example of Companies building

HRS around the world

Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term

Working with industry

partners to establish a

Hydrogen and Fuel Cell

Association in China

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DIRECT INVESTMENT IN PROMISING TECHNOLOGIES THAT CREATE OR FACILITATE

DEMAND FOR PGMS

-Focus sectors: Water treatment,

electrochemical systems1, medical

devices, electronics

-$2-$10 ticket (acquisition + follow on

capital)

-Commercialised technology / proven

concept

-Potential technology leader in its sector

-Strategic investment in technologies

that create or facilitate the demand for

PGMs

-$110m fund

-Market related returns

-Significant minority stake

-Flexible holding period

Target profile

Investment

focus

PGM

investment

programme

terms /

objectives

1 e.g. Fuel Cells, Flow Batteries, Electrolysers etc.2 weightings are revisited from time to time to align with PGM market dynamics

The ability to support investments via supply of metal and off-take of product,

as well as the opportunity for localisation of the technology, are key considerations

Fuel cells

Fuel cells

Food preservation

Flow battery

Hydrogen storage

Gas-to-liquid &

Hydrogen production

Hydrogen distribution

Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term

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PLATINUM

HRS economics imply positive return only in the medium term

Source: Element Energy

Capital cost varies

significantly by

technology type e.g.

on-site H2 production

vs. delivered H2.

Location influences

technology choice.

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PLATINUM

What has the biggest impact on a Hydrogen Refuelling Station NPV?

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

None 25% 50% 80%

Capex support (% of initial capex)

1.3

0.7

0.0

-0.7

2 4 6 8

H2 Cost (€/kg)

0.7

1.1

1.7

1.9

Variable 50% 90% 100%

Utilisation (In years 1 to 5)

CAPEX support scenarios H2 cost scenarios Utilisation scenarios

10% 20% 30% 40%

80%100%

1 2 3 4 5 6+

HRS variable utilisation

Common

Assumptions

• 400kg/day station

• Initial Capex: €1m

• Fixed overheads: €50k per month

• H2 selling price: €9/kg

• H2 cost: €4/kg (unless otherwise specified)

• Discount rate: 20%

• Asset commercial life: 20 years

• Utilisation: Variable (unless otherwise specified)Year

-100%

+70%

11Source: Element Energy

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PLATINUM

A few types of hydrogen fuelling station options exist

Overview

▪ Hydrogen fuel can be

delivered by trucks, pipeline or

produced onsite at the fueling

stations

▪ Most stations require the

following hardware:

– H2 production equipment

(for on-site production

only)

– Purification system to

purify H2 to meet vehicle

standards

– Storage vessels to store

H2 in liquid or gas form

– Compressor to minimise

storage volume and

prepare for high-pressure

pumping

– Safety equipment (e.g.,

pressure, relief valves)

– Mechanical equipment

(e.g., underground piping)

– Electrical equipment (e.g.,

control panels)

Types of H2 production

Type Onsite production Capacity

(kg/day)

▪ Fueling stations capable of

converting other fuels (e.g.,

natural gas, biogas) to H2

On-site steam

methane

reformer

On-site

electrolysis

Pipeline

station

Liquid

hydrogen

▪ Hydrogen delivery via

pipeline that leverages

existing petroleum pipeline

capacity

1,000

30 100

100 1,000

1,000100

20

▪ H2 is produced at a central

point (e.g., H2 generating

plant) and is delivered in

liquid form to stations

▪ Electricity from the grid or

intermittent supply is used to

convert H2 from water

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HYDROGENIOUS TECHNOLOGIES (www.hydrogenious.net)

•Hydrogenious’ technology is well positioned to capitalise on the growing fuel cell electric vehicle market, by filling the requirement for low cost hydrogen delivery. Technology set to decrease the delivered cost of hydrogen

•Energy storage applications well suited to renewable integration

•Pre-existing opportunities in the merchant hydrogen market ensure near term revenue upside

Overview - Entry date: July 2014

•Hydrogenious is a German based company that has developed disruptive technology that allows for more efficient transportation of hydrogen in liquid form

•The company’s Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHC) allow for safer and more cost effective hydrogen transportation and distribution

•PGM’s are used in the reaction process for both hydrogenation and dehydrogenation cycles

• PGMIP’s investments in both UHG and Hydrogenious has facilitated the two companies’ collaboration and knowledge sharing, creating significant cost and revenue synergies

• This will facilitate Hydrogenious’ entry into the USA, the world’s largest hydrogen market

• UHG benefits from the broader US public affairs and lobbying campaign initiated by AAP

• AAP facilitated Hydrogenious’ strategic relationship with Sasol, which has resulted in a secure supply agreement between the two parties for Marlotherm, the key ingredient in Hydrogenious’ Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier

• AAP also facilitated the introduction of Hydrogenious to HySA (Hydrogen South Africa), which has subsequently carried out research and development on dehydrogenation

What we have done to add value

Rationale for investment

Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term

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INVESTING IN BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES WILL ADDRESS HYDROGEN

STORAGE AND TRANSPORT COSTS

Hydrogenious enables bulk hydrogen storage in diesel-like energy-

dense liquid which is completely safe to transport and handle

LOHC (Liquid Organic Hydrogen

Carriers) storage density is unmatched

Gravimetric storage density (KWh/kg)

Vo

lum

etr

ic s

tora

ge

de

nsity (

KW

h/l)

Source: Hydrogenious Technologies, Anglo American Platinum analysis

Transport is a significant

component of total hydrogen cost at the pump

Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term

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GREYROCK (www.greyrock.com)

• There have been many previous attempts to commercialise micro- or small-scale gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities; to date limited success has been achieved. Greyrock has developed a catalyst and process which eliminates a costly refining step, allowing for the economically feasible operation of micro-scale GTL facilities.

• Economic micro-scale GTL:

‒ Enables the use (and therefore the elimination) of flared gas – a major contributor to global green-house gas emissions

‒ Allows gas from stranded or remote sources to be converted directly into high quality diesel and gasoline, which is easy to store and inexpensive to transport (between 40%-60% of the world’s proven gas reserves are considered to be stranded)

• Hydrogen is produced as a by-product of the process, which offers obvious synergies with existing portfolio companies in the fuel cell value chain

Overview - Entry date: September 2016

Rationale for investment

• Greyrock is a California based company that sells systems to the natural gas production community which enable the monetisation of flared / low-value natural gas to high value, vehicle-ready fuels

• Greyrock’s Direct Fuel Production™ platform uses a PGM based catalyst to enable the transformation of a methane rich steam (coal mine methane, flare gas, bio-gas, natural gas or natural gas liquids) into premium diesel fuel that can be used locally or can be easily transported to market

Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term

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GREYROCK’S HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT USER OF MINOR

PGMS

Potential minor PGM demand

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Dem

and

(o

z)

Minor PGM

Large potential upside on metal pricing

Page 17: Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem Birmingham, March 2017 Kevin Eggers, Principal, Market Development, Anglo American

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In a 100M units

automotive market by 2020…

…even a small

share of FCEVs…

… creates a

sizeable Pt demand

6860

74 7782 85

105

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020

Global automotive production volume

(million units)

+5%

+3%

20.0%

1.0%

0.5%

0.1%

Market share of

FCEV in total car

market (%)

20 000 000

1 000 000

500 000

100 000

Global Pt

demand in tons

% of current

global Pt

supply

>40%

4-8%

2-6%

0-1%

# of FCEV

production p.a.

100+ tons

10 - 30

5 - 15

1 - 3

Source: BCG, Anglo American Analysis

THE RATE OF FUEL CELL ADOPTION CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PT

DEMAND IN THE MEDIUM-LONG TERM

This level of demand would have a significant impact of pricing levels for Platinum

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PLATINUM

Thank you

18

Kevin EggersPrincipal Market Development

Precious Metals

[email protected]

(T) +44 20 79688623

Anglo American Platinum Limited

20 Carlton House Terrace

London SW1Y 5AN

United Kingdom

www.angloamericanplatinum.com

A member of the Anglo American plc group