Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem...
Transcript of Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem - CLIMATE CHANGE€¦ · Investing in the Hydrogen Ecosystem...
Investing in the Hydrogen EcosystemBirmingham, March 2017
Kevin Eggers, Principal, Market Development, Anglo American
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ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM LTD IS A LEADING PRODUCER OF PLATINUM AND
OTHER PLATINUM GROUP METALS
1 Production and supply estimates are based on data from World Platinum Investment Council, Industry and AAPL public reports
7%
63%
Minor PGMs
We mine, refine & market
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)
We account for ~30%1 of
global refined platinum supply
Our metals are widely used
in industrial applications
Fuel processing
Fertilizers
Paint & adhesives
Glass display
Autocatalysts
Jewellery
Platinum
Iridium
Ruthenium Osmium
Rhodium
Palladium
Osmium
76
Os
Sources of
refined
platinum
Refined
platinum
2015 ('000
ounces)
Implied
global
market
share
South Africa 4465 57%
Russia 715 9%
Zimbabwe 405 5%
North
America385 5%
Other 180 2%
Secondary
supply1710 22%
Total 7860 100%
AAPL 2460 31%
New applications for our metals are derived through investing in R&D and
commercialisation initiatives
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Price
(USD/oz)1092 684 630
Gross
Demand
(2014)
Pt Pd Rh% of
Value
Autocat 3 394 7 296 844 54%
Jewellery 2 984 300 20%
Industrial 1 839 2 079 196 21%
Investment 300 837 5%
Sum 8 517 10 512 1 040 100%
THE AUTOMOTIVE AND JEWELLERY SECTORS ACCOUNT FOR ~75% OF THE
PGM VALUE POOL
Demand end use shares, 2016f
Source: SFA (Oxford)
Over 40% of total platinum
demand is from the automotive sectorThe automotive sector
accounts for ~55% of the value pool
Source: Johnson Matthey
As a company we rely on certain expectations of the future to
shape our business – many of these expectations are being challenged
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WE’RE PROACTIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DEMAND FOR OUR METALS
Three key focus
areas for market
development
Grow investment demand via the World Platinum
Investment Council (WPIC) which will promote Pt as
an investment product
Investment demand1
Grow sustainable jewellery demand and reduce
demand elasticity. e.g. by growing Pt purchases in the
Chinese and Indian bridal segments via the industry
funded Platinum Guild International (PGI)
Jewellery demand2
Grow industrial demand through supporting
development of new PGM applications (specific
focus on accelerating fuel cell adoption)
Industrial demand3
Nea
r T
erm
Med
-lo
ng
term
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GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS AND CURRENT MARKET DYNAMICS PRESENT BOTH
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Changing automotive landscape a
threat to our core marketSlow/flat economic growth Ageing populations
Electrification
Automation
Car sharing
Flat or declining sales
Reduced discretionary spend
Declining bridal demand in key
geographies
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PORTFOLIO OF PGM MARKET DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
Overview of our existing market development activities
Investment
model
Direct into
universities/
research facilitiesDirect investment Equity investment
Indirect investment and/or
advocacy programmes, leveraging
partners with similar interests
Example
Projects
FC : Fuel cell Leveraged funding
FC Mining Equipment
FC Rural electrification
ResearchEarly stage
businesses
Mature
businesses
Product
development
FC Vehicle
Fuel cell and Jewellery related initiatives comprise the majority of our spend.
Equity investment focused on stimulating industrial demand
FC Cofimvaba
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ACTIVITIES UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GLOBE - ADVOCACY EFFORTS
UNDERWRITE OUR INVESTMENTS & SUPPORT BROADER INDUSTRY INITIATIVES
Advocacy: Industry association
& communications initiatives
Fuel cell & hydrogen related
equity investments
Example of Companies building
HRS around the world
Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term
Working with industry
partners to establish a
Hydrogen and Fuel Cell
Association in China
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DIRECT INVESTMENT IN PROMISING TECHNOLOGIES THAT CREATE OR FACILITATE
DEMAND FOR PGMS
-Focus sectors: Water treatment,
electrochemical systems1, medical
devices, electronics
-$2-$10 ticket (acquisition + follow on
capital)
-Commercialised technology / proven
concept
-Potential technology leader in its sector
-Strategic investment in technologies
that create or facilitate the demand for
PGMs
-$110m fund
-Market related returns
-Significant minority stake
-Flexible holding period
Target profile
Investment
focus
PGM
investment
programme
terms /
objectives
1 e.g. Fuel Cells, Flow Batteries, Electrolysers etc.2 weightings are revisited from time to time to align with PGM market dynamics
The ability to support investments via supply of metal and off-take of product,
as well as the opportunity for localisation of the technology, are key considerations
Fuel cells
Fuel cells
Food preservation
Flow battery
Hydrogen storage
Gas-to-liquid &
Hydrogen production
Hydrogen distribution
Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term
PLATINUM
HRS economics imply positive return only in the medium term
Source: Element Energy
Capital cost varies
significantly by
technology type e.g.
on-site H2 production
vs. delivered H2.
Location influences
technology choice.
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PLATINUM
What has the biggest impact on a Hydrogen Refuelling Station NPV?
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
None 25% 50% 80%
Capex support (% of initial capex)
1.3
0.7
0.0
-0.7
2 4 6 8
H2 Cost (€/kg)
0.7
1.1
1.7
1.9
Variable 50% 90% 100%
Utilisation (In years 1 to 5)
CAPEX support scenarios H2 cost scenarios Utilisation scenarios
10% 20% 30% 40%
80%100%
1 2 3 4 5 6+
HRS variable utilisation
Common
Assumptions
• 400kg/day station
• Initial Capex: €1m
• Fixed overheads: €50k per month
• H2 selling price: €9/kg
• H2 cost: €4/kg (unless otherwise specified)
• Discount rate: 20%
• Asset commercial life: 20 years
• Utilisation: Variable (unless otherwise specified)Year
-100%
+70%
11Source: Element Energy
PLATINUM
A few types of hydrogen fuelling station options exist
Overview
▪ Hydrogen fuel can be
delivered by trucks, pipeline or
produced onsite at the fueling
stations
▪ Most stations require the
following hardware:
– H2 production equipment
(for on-site production
only)
– Purification system to
purify H2 to meet vehicle
standards
– Storage vessels to store
H2 in liquid or gas form
– Compressor to minimise
storage volume and
prepare for high-pressure
pumping
– Safety equipment (e.g.,
pressure, relief valves)
– Mechanical equipment
(e.g., underground piping)
– Electrical equipment (e.g.,
control panels)
Types of H2 production
Type Onsite production Capacity
(kg/day)
▪ Fueling stations capable of
converting other fuels (e.g.,
natural gas, biogas) to H2
On-site steam
methane
reformer
On-site
electrolysis
Pipeline
station
Liquid
hydrogen
▪ Hydrogen delivery via
pipeline that leverages
existing petroleum pipeline
capacity
1,000
30 100
100 1,000
1,000100
20
▪ H2 is produced at a central
point (e.g., H2 generating
plant) and is delivered in
liquid form to stations
▪ Electricity from the grid or
intermittent supply is used to
convert H2 from water
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HYDROGENIOUS TECHNOLOGIES (www.hydrogenious.net)
•Hydrogenious’ technology is well positioned to capitalise on the growing fuel cell electric vehicle market, by filling the requirement for low cost hydrogen delivery. Technology set to decrease the delivered cost of hydrogen
•Energy storage applications well suited to renewable integration
•Pre-existing opportunities in the merchant hydrogen market ensure near term revenue upside
Overview - Entry date: July 2014
•Hydrogenious is a German based company that has developed disruptive technology that allows for more efficient transportation of hydrogen in liquid form
•The company’s Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHC) allow for safer and more cost effective hydrogen transportation and distribution
•PGM’s are used in the reaction process for both hydrogenation and dehydrogenation cycles
• PGMIP’s investments in both UHG and Hydrogenious has facilitated the two companies’ collaboration and knowledge sharing, creating significant cost and revenue synergies
• This will facilitate Hydrogenious’ entry into the USA, the world’s largest hydrogen market
• UHG benefits from the broader US public affairs and lobbying campaign initiated by AAP
• AAP facilitated Hydrogenious’ strategic relationship with Sasol, which has resulted in a secure supply agreement between the two parties for Marlotherm, the key ingredient in Hydrogenious’ Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier
• AAP also facilitated the introduction of Hydrogenious to HySA (Hydrogen South Africa), which has subsequently carried out research and development on dehydrogenation
What we have done to add value
Rationale for investment
Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term
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INVESTING IN BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES WILL ADDRESS HYDROGEN
STORAGE AND TRANSPORT COSTS
Hydrogenious enables bulk hydrogen storage in diesel-like energy-
dense liquid which is completely safe to transport and handle
LOHC (Liquid Organic Hydrogen
Carriers) storage density is unmatched
Gravimetric storage density (KWh/kg)
Vo
lum
etr
ic s
tora
ge
de
nsity (
KW
h/l)
Source: Hydrogenious Technologies, Anglo American Platinum analysis
Transport is a significant
component of total hydrogen cost at the pump
Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term
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GREYROCK (www.greyrock.com)
• There have been many previous attempts to commercialise micro- or small-scale gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities; to date limited success has been achieved. Greyrock has developed a catalyst and process which eliminates a costly refining step, allowing for the economically feasible operation of micro-scale GTL facilities.
• Economic micro-scale GTL:
‒ Enables the use (and therefore the elimination) of flared gas – a major contributor to global green-house gas emissions
‒ Allows gas from stranded or remote sources to be converted directly into high quality diesel and gasoline, which is easy to store and inexpensive to transport (between 40%-60% of the world’s proven gas reserves are considered to be stranded)
• Hydrogen is produced as a by-product of the process, which offers obvious synergies with existing portfolio companies in the fuel cell value chain
Overview - Entry date: September 2016
Rationale for investment
• Greyrock is a California based company that sells systems to the natural gas production community which enable the monetisation of flared / low-value natural gas to high value, vehicle-ready fuels
• Greyrock’s Direct Fuel Production™ platform uses a PGM based catalyst to enable the transformation of a methane rich steam (coal mine methane, flare gas, bio-gas, natural gas or natural gas liquids) into premium diesel fuel that can be used locally or can be easily transported to market
Industrial demand3 Med-Long Term
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GREYROCK’S HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT USER OF MINOR
PGMS
Potential minor PGM demand
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dem
and
(o
z)
Minor PGM
Large potential upside on metal pricing
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In a 100M units
automotive market by 2020…
…even a small
share of FCEVs…
… creates a
sizeable Pt demand
6860
74 7782 85
105
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020
Global automotive production volume
(million units)
+5%
+3%
20.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.1%
Market share of
FCEV in total car
market (%)
20 000 000
1 000 000
500 000
100 000
Global Pt
demand in tons
% of current
global Pt
supply
>40%
4-8%
2-6%
0-1%
# of FCEV
production p.a.
100+ tons
10 - 30
5 - 15
1 - 3
Source: BCG, Anglo American Analysis
THE RATE OF FUEL CELL ADOPTION CAN HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON PT
DEMAND IN THE MEDIUM-LONG TERM
This level of demand would have a significant impact of pricing levels for Platinum
PLATINUM
Thank you
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Kevin EggersPrincipal Market Development
Precious Metals
(T) +44 20 79688623
Anglo American Platinum Limited
20 Carlton House Terrace
London SW1Y 5AN
United Kingdom
www.angloamericanplatinum.com
A member of the Anglo American plc group