NOTESAGRICULTURAL & RURAL DEVELOPMENT

Drought is a normal part of climate for virtually everycountry. It is a slow-onset, creeping phenomenon withserious economic, environmental, and social impacts. Itaffects more people than any other natural hazard.Generally, the common response has been reactive, inef-fective, and untimely—usually leading to increaseddependency on government and other organizations.The conventional response also adds to vulnerabilitybecause it provides a disincentive to adopt best man-agement practices.

A risk-based management approach is more cost effective. It emphasizes improved monitoring and earlywarning systems; development of strong decision-sup-port systems; identification and implementation of mit-igation actions; education and training of policy mak-ers, natural resources managers, and the public; anddrought mitigation plans that reduce the most seriousimpacts. This approach addresses the underlying causesof vulnerability rather than the symptoms and impacts.Investments in drought-mitigation planning, manage-ment, and appropriate policies will provide individualsand governments with the tools necessary to reducesocietal vulnerability to future droughts. A possiblecomplement to this kind of investment is offered by the development of financial weather-related risk-man-agement instruments.

DEFINING DROUGHT

There is no universal definition of “drought,” becauseits characterization is impact- and application-specific.A conceptual definition of drought is a deficiency ofprecipitation over an extended period of time withserious impacts on human activities and the environ-ment. This definition links intensity and duration tosocietal impacts. Meteorological drought focuses onlyon the intensity and duration aspects of drought. Asdrought conditions persist for months, seasons, oryears, other components of the hydrologic system willbe affected. For example, agricultural drought is bestdefined by deficiencies in soil moisture and hydrologi-cal drought by deficiencies in surface and subsurfacewater supplies. The links between precipitation deficiencies and impacts are less direct for thesedrought types, with impacts lagging meteorologicaldrought. Conflicts between water users increase asdrought persists because competition for surface andsubsurface water supplies intensifies. Socioeconomicdrought is associated with the supply and demand ofsome commodity, resource, or product that is influ-enced, though indirectly, by precipitation amounts,timing, and effectiveness, as well as by water resourcemanagement practices.

Greater investment should be directed to lesseningrisk associated with drought. Drought risk is definedby a region’s exposure to the natural hazard and soci-ety’s vulnerability to it. Because climate is variablethrough time, exposure to drought also varies fromyear to year and decade to decade. Global warmingand the probability that drought and other extremeclimatic events may become more frequent in thefuture may translate into increased exposure todrought. Water resources planning should be basedon the assumption that climate is variable andextremes are a normal part of climate everywhere.

Vulnerability to drought is defined by social factorssuch as increases in population and regional migrationtrends, demographics, urbanization, land usechanges, natural resources policies, water use trends,environmental awareness and degradation, technolo-gy, and the like. Vulnerability is dynamic and must beperiodically evaluated at the local and national levels.

INVESTING IN DROUGHT PREPAREDNESSBY: THE WATER FOR FOOD TEAM

ISSUE 7FEBRUARY2006

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The preparation of vulnerability profiles (who and what isat risk and why) can help individuals and governments atevery level to better understand and systematically addressdrought risk.

Drought early warning systems must have the capacity todetect the first signs of an emerging rainfall deficiency, thebest indicator of meteorological drought, but other keydrought indicators (water reservoir levels, groundwater lev-els, stream flows) are also important. There are also criticaleconomic and social indicators (market data such as grainprices and changing terms of trade for staple grains andlivestock as an indicator of purchasing power in rural com-munities, migration of household members to search forwork, selling of nonproductive assets). All of these indica-tors provide decision makers with early information onemerging impacts in various sectors. Climate indexesshould be used to evaluate the status of climate and watersupplies, and potential impacts in specific sectors such asagriculture, energy, and urban water supply. This informa-tion should be supplemented by long-range or seasonalforecasts. A drought early warning system must not onlyencompass mechanisms and procedures for the collection,

analysis, and integration of information from multiplesources in a timely manner, but also include procedures forthe dissemination of that information to potential endusers. Training end users about the value of this informa-tion in the decision-making process is essential. Oncedrought conditions are detected, there should be continu-ous information flow on the severity of conditions, poten-tial impacts, and possible mitigation or emergencyresponse actions.

Best practices include development of a comprehensivedrought early warning system that includes collection ofdata for all meteorological and hydrological variables andfor critical social indicators which integrates this informa-tion into a timely and reliable assessment of severity andimpacts. These data are commonly available from nationalmeteorological, hydrological, and agricultural servicesunits. Development of an automated weather data stationnetwork is recommended to collect data from a broaderspectrum of meteorological variables and in near-real timefor locations representative of the agricultural environmentrather than the urban setting. Automated networks can beestablished in most settings.

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Box 1: The 10-Step Drought Mitigation Planning Process

The 10-step drought mitigation planning process was originally based on interactions with U.S. states buthas been modified greatly to incorporate the experiences and lessons learned from many developed anddeveloping countries. It has been the basis for discussions at regional training workshops and seminars ondrought management and preparedness. This planning process has evolved to incorporate more emphasison risk assessment and mitigation tools in response to the increasing interest in drought preparednessplanning. The steps are as follows:

1. Appoint a drought task force or committee.

2. State the purpose and objectives of the drought mitigation plan.

3. Seek stakeholder input and resolve conflicts.

4. Inventory resources and identify groups at risk.

5. Prepare and write the drought mitigation plan.

6. Identify research needs and fill institutional gaps.

7. Integrate science and policy.

8. Publicize the drought mitigation plan and build awareness and consensus.

9. Develop education programs.

10. Evaluate and revise drought mitigation plans.

Source: Author.

POTENTIAL BENEFITS

A comprehensive early warning system can provide deci-sion makers with information for making timely decisionsthat can reduce the economic, social, and environmentalcosts and losses associated with drought. Drought man-agement reduces the risk to people, property, and pro-ductive capacity. It is a critical part of poverty reductionstrategies.

POLICY AND IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES

Shifting from crisis management to drought risk manage-ment is difficult because governments and individuals typ-ically take a reactive approach and little institutional capac-ity exists in most settings to alter this paradigm. A 10-stepdrought planning methodology to assist in building institu-tional capacity is illustrated in Box 1.

A drought policy establishes a set of principles or operat-ing guidelines. It should be consistent and equitable for allregions, population groups, and economic sectors, andconsistent with the goals of sustainable development. Itsoverriding principle is an emphasis on managing riskthrough preparedness and mitigation. This principle can bepromoted through more, or better, seasonal and shorter-term forecasts; integrated monitoring, drought early warn-ing systems, and associated information delivery systems;preparedness plans at various levels of government; miti-gation actions and programs; a safety net of emergencyresponse programs that ensure timely and targeted relief;and an organizational structure that enhances coordina-tion within and among levels of government and withstakeholders.

LESSONS LEARNED

Individuals, governments, and others consider drought arare and random event. As a result, little, if any, planning isusually completed in preparation for the next event.Because drought is an inevitable feature of climate, strate-gies for reducing its impacts and responding to emergen-cies may and should be well defined in advance. Almostwithout exception, the crisis management approach hasbeen untimely and ineffective and has done little to reducevulnerability to the next drought. Also, relief measureshave been poorly targeted. In fact, drought relief actuallyincreases vulnerability to future events by reducing self-reliance and increasing dependence on external assistance.

In addition, agricultural producers and natural resourcesmanagers that employ best-management practices areusually not eligible for drought relief or assistance pro-grams. In reality, governments not only promote poor man-agement by providing drought relief, but also reward it.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRACTITIONERS

Many drought mitigation actions exist for each impact sector. Conducting a drought risk assessment will helpidentify the most essential mitigation actions for each ofthese sectors to reduce drought vulnerability. Some gener-al recommendations that would benefit all sectors follow:

General

• Improving the reliability of seasonal climate forecastsand increasing their use could improve decision makingfor water management.

• Establishing an automated weather station networkcould provide end users with near-real time data toimprove decision making.

• Altering operating procedures for water reservoir management and augmenting water storage capacity ofsurface and subsurface systems could improve droughtcoping capacity.

• Improving information delivery systems and providingtechnical assistance could improve decision making bygovernment officials, agricultural producers, and watermanagers during droughts and help create the neces-sary infrastructure.

• Improving water conservation practices for domesticand agricultural sectors during drought and non-drought periods and monitoring the effects of droughton water quality for both surface and groundwater sup-plies would help to mitigate risks overall.

Below are more specific recommendations for practitionersin the agricultural, municipal, and industrial sectors.

Agriculture

• Conduct crop irrigation efficiency studies and train farm-ers on the best water management practices and conser-vation irrigation

• Encourage the use of innovative cultivation techniques toreduce crop water use and provide guidance on alterna-tive cropping systems and crop types to employ duringdroughts

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• Provide farmers with real-time irrigation scheduling andcrop evapotranspiration information

• Monitor and provide farmers with real-time data on soilmoisture

• Encourage installation of water-efficient irrigation tech-nology

• Promote the development of an actuarial-based cropinsurance program for agricultural producers

Municipal and Industrial

• Provide guidance to local government and water supplyproviders on long-term water management issues,including drought planning

• Encourage water reuse as part of ongoing water con-servation programs

• Provide water efficiency education for industries andbusinesses

• Develop and implement an incentives program toencourage efficient use of existing water supplies

• Assess and classify the drought vulnerability of individ-ual water supply systems

• Identify vulnerable water-dependent industries, andfund research to help determine impacts and improvepredictive capabilities

POTENTIAL WORLD BANKINVOLVEMENT

The World Bank has several lending instruments to stimu-late progress in drought risk management. The SpecificInvestment Loan program may facilitate development ofinstitutional capacity. Since a shift from the crisis manage-ment approach to a risk management approach must begradual, the Adaptable Program Loan instrument may

offer the opportunity to transition to this new paradigm.Moving to risk-based drought management requiresrestructuring of current emergency assistance programsand building consensus among stakeholders on prioritiesfor mitigation measures. Government agencies possessconsiderable institutional inertia toward maintaining thestatus quo (in other words, maintaining current emergencydrought relief programs). Effective drought risk manage-ment requires building consensus between governmentand stakeholders.

The best time to develop a drought mitigation policy anda preparedness plan is right after a disastrous drought. Thelessons learned in attempting to manage the drought cri-sis without a viable plan and the farreaching impacts asso-ciated with drought are fresh in the minds of policy mak-ers, natural resources managers, and the public. The WorldBank’s Emergency Recovery Loan program is intended torestore assets and production levels after a natural disaster.This program could be effective in implementing droughtdisaster—resilient technology, including creation of a com-prehensive and integrated early warning and delivery sys-tem, and appropriate training programs to avoid or miti-gate the impact of future droughts.

Investment opportunities in drought mitigation are numer-ous and varied. As part of the drought planning process, acritical step is the identification of appropriate mitigationactions that will address those sectors, population groups,and regions most at risk. As potential mitigation optionsare identified, each should be evaluated in terms of itspotential to decrease both short-term and long-termdrought impacts and consistency with sustainable devel-opment goals.

THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street. NW Washington, DC 20433 www.worldbank.org/rural

This Note was prepared by Donald Wilhite of the International Drought Mitigation Center and updated by Salah Darghouth and Ariel Dinar fromthe Water For Food Team of the World Bank. It is based on Investment Note 8.1 in the larger volume Shaping the Future of Water for Agriculture: A Sourcebook for Investment in Agricultural Water Management. The Sourcebook documents a range of solutions and good practices from WorldBank and worldwide experience, concentrating on investments in policy and institutional reforms in technology and management to improve waterproductivity and farming profitability. You can download a copy of the full report at www.worldbank.org/rural or email ard@worldbank.org.