Investing 101: Accumulating the First Million

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© 2003 By Default! A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.com Slide 1 William Trainor Investing 101: Accumulating the First Million How, Where, and When

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Investing 101: Accumulating the First Million. How, Where, and When. October, this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February. Mark Twain, 1899. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Investing 101: Accumulating the First MillionHow, Where, and When

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor1

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor2October, this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January September, April, November, May, March, June,December, August and February.

Mark Twain, 1899.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor3The most powerful force in the universe is compound Interest.Albert Einstein

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor4Historical ReturnsStocksBondsCDs

Avg.10%5%3%

Min.-66%(1932)-9%0%

Max.155%(1933)40.3%15%

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor5What About The Risk Over Time for Stocks?

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor6Value of Crystal BallTimingBuy and HoldJan. 1926$1,000$1,000Sept. 1929$3,633$2,541July 1932$9,502$415Jan. 1945$1,076,709$2,549July 2000$7 Trillion$2,145,679Dec. 2002$11.7 Trillion$1,273,690Dec. 2004$19.2 Trillion$1,847,619

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor7Before running down to the local fortune teller/stockbrokerSince 1960, if you had invested $1,000 in the Stock Market, it would now be worth $82,680.If you did time the market correctly every time, it would be worth $331,673,980.However, if you had your money in the bank during just the top 10% stock performing months, you would only be worth $1,465; missed top 5%: $7,547; only missed top 2%: $24,511.Lesson More fortunes are lost than made when investors think they know when the market is going up or down.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor8How Long Will it Take?CDs, Checking accounts 71 yearsT-bonds 56 yearsGeneral Stock fund 36 years averaging 10% a year.

Investing $3,000 a year 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor9Alternatives I Dont Have That Long!Invest more! Dont have more? Could take on more riskChina, India, and other developing countries.Could see 12 to 15% average gains over next 20 years$3,000 a year would be worth $1 million in approximately 22 to 25 years.On the other hand, one or more of these International Companys CEOs or governments thanks you for your $3,000 a year donation.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor10Alternatives Maybe I Dont Need That Much!Maybe not. How can you tell?Step 1: Estimate how much you will need. Most planners suggest at least 80% of what you spend now. Multiply that by 1.03 (3% is from average inflation rate) to the nth power where n is the number of years until retirement. Ex. Earn $50,000, Save $5,000. 80% of $45,000 = $36,000. Can further reduce number by expected TCRS payment and/or Social Security if it still exists. Lets assume $12,000 in other payments.Assume 25 years to retirement, will need $24,000 * 1.03^25 = $50,251 per year. 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor11Know how much you do need, you might need even more.Step 2: To have a 90% chance or more of not running out of money, should only withdraw 5% a year. Thus, divide amount needed each year by 0.05. Our example, $50,251/0.05 = $1,005,013. Looks like you do need a Million!Step 3: Dont panic. Spaghetti is still relatively inexpensive if combined with the generic sauce. You wont starve, but you may have to cut back more than you think if dont plan ahead.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor12Other AlternativesDont put all your money in the typical S&P 500 index fund. Why? Too many institutions with too much money chasing too few stocks.Small cap stocks generally outperform.Invest in Index funds, but make the index the Wilshire 5000 or what is usually called an extended equity fund. Average company size is $2 billion vs $20+ billion in the S&P 500.Could boost returns by 2% or so. So what? Difference between 10% and 12% over 20 years is $50,000. Over 30 years is $250,000 based on $3,000 a year contributions.Spreadsheet scenario analysis 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor13How about if I just invest in one company?Sure, you might get lucky$3,000 in Cisco in 1990 would have been worth $2,825,524 in 2000, its still worth $625,536 today.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor14On the other handGM in 1990 was selling for $45, its now selling for $10, and this is/was a good company! theglobe.com, E-toys, , you could have done much worse.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor15How about JDS Uniphase

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor16What about JDS Uniphase!At one time, it was worth over $90 billion and battling Microsoft and GE for the title of the largest company in the world.

2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor17Not just correct on the farm, Dont put all your eggs in one basket!With over 8,000 publicly traded companies, we could keep trying. However, investing in only one company is not a good idea for retirement investing. Just ask any Worldcom, Enron, Global Crossing, Adelphia, Lucent, etc. investors. 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor18Advice.It takes time. If you have limited time, invest more wealth in an asset mix appropriate for your time horizon and risk aversion.Do not try to shorten the time to reach your Millions by just taking on more risk. This increases the probability you will fall short.Example, 100% in stocks, 10% chance you will end up with less than $215,000 in 36 years. With a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio, only a 10% chance you will end up with less than $600,000. 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor19SpecificsBare basic essentialsInvest in an extended equity index fund, an international fund, and in a mid-grade or high yield bond fund. Generic ratios are 55%, 25%, and 20%. This is an aggressive portfolio. Based on risk tolerances and age to retirement, you likely will have to adjust these ratios but knowing nothing about each individuals circumstances, this is what I would recommend. Assuming at least 15+years to retirement.Only 10 years, 50%, 20%, and 30% with a greater use of mid-grade corporate bonds and world income funds in the last percentage. Keep in mind, even after you retire, you likely will still have a 20+ year time horizon. 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor20Is there an easier way so I can do something else in life?Target Date Mutual FundsPick the date you plan to retire, the mutual fund automatically sets the initial asset allocation and adjusts it towards a less risky position as you approach retirement. ETSU already offers these funds and you reduce your taxable income at the same time. Thus, each $1 you invest may only cost you $0.75 depending on your income tax bracket.ETSU matches the first $50 a month. If you do nothing else, invest at least $50 a month, you make an immediate 100% return. 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor21Target Date Funds in ETSUs 457 and 401k plansVanguard 2010 to 2050, Asset Composition Percentages

TargetU.S. StockInternationalInv. Grade BondsShort-term2050721810020407218100203069181302020581428020104411414 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor22Lets Try A SimulationOnly have 25 minutes. Heres your chance to accumulate your first million!Link 2003 By Default!A Free sample background from www.powerpointbackgrounds.comSlide #William Trainor23Stock02DateValueValueVW withoutOne YearFive year10 year15 year20 yearValueValueOne YearFive year10 year15 year20 yearEquallyEqualOne YearS&PNumber ofTotal MarketFama-Bliss 1-5 year T-bill yields, starts 6/5290 day90 day30 day30 dayCPIWeightedIndexDividendsAnnualizedAnnualizedAnnualizedAnnualizedAnnualizedWeightedIndexAnnualizedAnnualizedAnnualizedAnnualizedAnnualizedWeightedIndexAnnualizedIndexSecuritiesValuebill returnindexbill returnindexIndex1000caldtvwretdvwinddvwretxReturnsReturnsReturnsReturnsReturnsvwretd0ReturnsReturnsReturnsReturnsReturnsewretdewinddReturns(EW)spindxtotcntusdvalqdateyield1yield2yield3yield4yield51002.951192601300.00030950081.0003095008-0.0019420250.000309500810.023187511.0231875112.7450927241750.40.0040421.0040420.0029511.00295111005.72716836819260227-0.031916570.9683830526-0.03562244-0.031916571.96808343-0.053108650.968847402612.18519273742530.0032371.0072920840.0027681.005727168411008.521078441719260331-0.064695890.9057326491-0.07151853-0.064695892.8407565209-0.096893340.874972541911.4652026479540.40.0027781.01009034140.0027781.00852107840.99441302981045.8730886818192604300.037036420.93927774390.03451410.037036423.94596797250.031373540.902423527911.7252625216268.70.0030721.01319333890.0030721.011619255211061.0548569323192605280.014515880.9529121870.0099470750.014515885.00324717010.0035997830.905672056811.8152826145987.80.0019651.01518426380.0003421.0119652290.99441302981120.0571784043192606300.055607231.00590099410.049210650.055607236.28146388620.051122210.951972013812.3253126553650.40.0034591.01869578620.0034591.01546561670.98882700931152.1973759466192607310.028695141.0347654640.026341250.028695147.46171137190.013155650.964495824512.8853528098555.90.0022431.02098072080.0022431.01774330610.97765401861184.0865353252192608310.027676821.06340448150.024028940.027676828.66822781440.027702260.991214538613.153628910558.10.0020691.02309312990.0025361.02032430310.97206704841187.0030766316192609300.0024631151.066023769-0.0026105030.0024631159.6895786563-0.0061907610.985078166313.453529696780.70.0022731.02541862060.0022731.02264350030.97765401861190.795551461519261030-0.027896261.0362856928-0.03025545-0.0278962610.4192756509-0.031069480.954472299912.9854229650388.70.0031951.02869483310.0031951.02591084620.98324003911223.6277496279192611300.027571651.06485779920.021056270.0275716511.70655227240.023622260.977019092713.2754228616643.60.0043371.03315628260.0030931.02908398850.98882700931259.4334224748192612310.02926191.09601756160.022750540.029261913.04910823430.025990011.002411828713.4954529472791.60.0027781.03602639080.0027781.03194278380.98882700931262.5354069943192701310.0017537171.0979396662-0.0008102460.00175371714.07199267720.010515261.0129524497-0.01000311313.2154630655094.90.0014131.0374902960.0024631.03448445890.97765401861319.5605836038192702280.045167191.14753051580.040577280.0451671915.70758504420.056518251.07020274950.104614355713.8455030751033.90.0025241.04010892150.002571.03714308390.97206704841328.4360787256192703310.0067260991.15524891960.0014535990.00672609916.8132358162-0.01921341.0496405160.199626806313.9355432305709.40.0029591.04318660380.0029591.04021199030.96648007821337.4803717761192704300.0068082261.16311411530.0045887560.00680822617.92770412550.0085322161.05859627560.173059259714.17555324477040.0025461.04584255690.0025461.042860370.96648007821413.8418073821192705310.05709351.22952037110.05241920.057093519.95125950090.061840591.12406049380.241134122914.9156132806848.80.0036671.04967766160.0030081.0459972940.97206704841417.493760770619270630-0.020349051.2045007996-0.02620504-0.0203490520.5452703238-0.019193961.10248532170.15810686214.7756634835014.30.0025831.0523889790.0025831.04869910510.98324003911524.7709501552192707300.075680891.29565849210.073431690.0756808923.10015466720.058546671.1670321660.209991931915.7356634055610.80.0029911.05553667440.0029911.05183576410.96648007821563.5935397575192708310.025461261.32864758980.02156770.0254612624.68831371120.003558421.17118495660.181565555216.4356936377052.10.0029631.05866422960.0027571.05473567530.96089405771636.8765421288192709300.046868321.39091907020.041288720.0468683226.84541349850.032745961.20953653230.227858431717.1457637270379.50.0020961.06088318980.0020961.05694640130.96648007821641.001471014919271031-0.03953251.3359325621-0.04163188-0.039532526.7841471894-0.038481581.16299165550.218465591616.2358440154038.30.002521.06355661550.002521.05960990620.97206704841754.7421547236192711300.069311751.42852838590.064050880.0693117529.64060330330.097356921.27621694110.306235416117.3358638495278.40.0019971.0656805380.0020861.06182025240.96648007821795.2651347469192712310.023093411.46151797760.017978690.0230934131.3251059080.030012321.31451917230.311356405317.6659241087371.30.002231.06805700560.002231.06418811160.96648007821799.259599671719280131-0.0029399021.457221258-0.004901822-0.00293990232.23301316650.032689271.35748984440.34013185417.5759341353557.70.0022251.07043343250.0022251.06655593020.96648007821805.18636079319280229-0.013573561.4374415778-0.01745812-0.0135735632.7954964283-0.022413811.3270633250.24001113417.2659441252800.20.0027741.07340281480.0032941.07006916540.95530708751967.2515334547192803310.089777531.56649153210.085452440.0897775336.73979509280.070867041.42110837470.353900076319.1359140544051.10.0029361.07655432550.0029361.07321088850.95530708752051.6849266273192804300.042919471.63372451850.040981760.0429194739.31664762610.086377631.54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Real Estate Investing 101

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Money sense live investing 101 alvin tabanag