INVESTIGATION ON THE EFFECTS OF AIRPORT ATFM RESTRICTIONS

INVESTIGATION ON THE EFFECTS OF AIRPORT ATFM RESTRICTIONS

Thomas Günther

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Hartmut Fricke

ICRAT 2004

Zilina, 23.11.04


Thomas Günther, Prof. Hartmut Fricke

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Content

1. Background & motivation

2. Computer-aided model

3. Investigation & results

4. Conclusions

5. Institute of Aviation, Dresden



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Investigation background

ATFM (Air Traffic Flow Management) objectives: improve safety by avoiding overloads of sectors and controllers enable an optimum traffic flow within the airspace

in Europe provided by the CFMU (Central Flow Management Unit) comparison of the demand forecast with capacities of each ATC sector

and airport ATFM restrictions if demand exceeds capacity all flights concerned with this restriction will be delayed at their

departure airport (slot allocation)



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Motivation

En-route ATFM delays decreased since 1999 by about 75%

Airport ATFM delays are becoming more

important nowadays

most penalizing airport: Frankfurt Main (more than 1 million minutes of ATFM delay in 2003, much more than any other European airport)

2nd: Roma Fiumicino: 610 000 minutes ATFM delay in 2003 3rd: London Heathrow: 590 000 minutes ATFM delay in 2003



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Computer-aided model

Requested inputs: Scheduled Times of Arrival, …

Modeling of the slot allocation process

ETA generation (propability distribution)

Discrepancies between regulated and actual demand

Modeling of the arrival sequencing process

Actual Times of Arrival, arrival demand & flow, ...



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Investigation

Investigation on ATFM restrictions at Frankfurt Main Airport:

declared capacity of 43 (45) arrivals/h in 2003

in case of poor weather conditions explicit lower capacity (CAT II/III conditions: about 35 arrivals per hour)

investigation on the effects with and without ATFM restrictions



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Results:Effects on actual demand

Simulation of a regulated demand of 35 arrivals/h between 7:00 and 8:00:

ATFM restriction

actual demand decreases within the period of ATFM restriction

after cancellation of the restriction the demand increases (late arrivals)

a too early applied restriction may lead to negative effects (flights are pushed into the critical period)



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Results:Effects on airborne delay

Simulation of a maximum arrival rate of 35 per h between 7:00 and 8:00:

airborne delay can be reduced by implementing ATFM restrictions

communication and surveillance workload for the controllers can be reduced

safety is improved by avoiding overload of airspace and controllers



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Results:Effects on punctuality

Simulation of a maximum arrival rate of 35 per h between 7:00 and 8:00:

punctuality is decreased by the application of Airport ATFM restrictions

reduction of airborne delay is always less than subsequent increase of ATFM delay

reason: better runway throughput without ATFM restrictions



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Conclusions

Airport ATFM restrictions need to be applied to ensure safety if a capacity reduction or excessive demand may lead to significant airspace congestion.

To maintain a tolerable punctuality a good balance between ATFM restrictions and the use of available holding stacks has to be achieved.

Objective of Airport ATFM restrictions: NOT to avoid holding! Maintain safety requirements while keeping

airborne holding at a manageable and efficient level

Safe and efficient balance

Ground Holding

Airborne Holding



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Institute of Aviation, Dresden

Director of the institute: Professor Hartmut Fricke young team (9 assistants) of aviation experts and engineers key aspects of research:

Air Transport Infrastructure Planning Air Transport System Technologies Optimizing Ground Handling and Passenger Flow Processes Capacity Analysis: Correlating Capacity and Safety



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Thank you for your attention!

INVESTIGATION ON THE EFFECTS OF AIRPORT ATFM RESTRICTIONS

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