Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond
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Investigation of science-based Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond and beyond Dr Carl O’Brien Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser Seafish, Edinburgh 22 nd October 2013 NSRAC: Cod Management Focus Group
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Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond. Dr Carl O’Brien Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser Seafish, Edinburgh 22 nd October 2013. NSRAC: Cod Management Focus Group. Recognise the implications of the 9% cut advised by ICES in June 2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyond
Investigation of science-based options for Investigation of science-based options for North Sea cod in 2014 and beyondNorth Sea cod in 2014 and beyond
Dr Carl O’Brien
Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser
Seafish, Edinburgh
22nd October 2013
NSRAC: Cod Management Focus Group
MessageMessage
• Recognise the implications of the 9% cut advised by ICES in June 2013
• Scientific exploration of options
• To note that Ministerial priorities have not been decided:– Options presented may not be pursued– Options may not be possible because of legal
constraintsCod in Subarea IV
(North
Sea) and Divisions
VIId (E
astern Channel) a
nd IIIa W
est
(Skagerrak)
F (Fishing Mortality) 2009 2010 2011
MSY (FMSY) Above target
Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Harvested sustainably
Management plan (FMP) Above target
SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass)
2010 2011 2012
MSY (Btrigger) Below trigger
Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Reduced reproductive capacity
Management plan (SSBMP) Below trigger
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0.0 0.5 1.0
SSB
in 1
000
t
Fishing Mortality (ages 2-4)
2011
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
F (ag
es 2
-4)
Fishing MortalityFmsyFpaFlim
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008R
ec
ruit
me
nt i
n m
illio
ns
Recruitment (age 1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
SS
B in
10
00
t
Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa
MSY Btrigger
Blim
0
100
200
300
400
1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Land
ings
in 1
000
t
Total removalsUnallocated
Discards
Landings
• Gradual improvement in recent years but still poor stock status
• F well above FMSY
• SSB just below Blim
• Recruitment since 2000 has been poor
• Proportion discarded in recent years higher than in past
ICES’ advice released June 2012ICES’ advice released June 2012
Summary from FMAC meeting lastSummary from FMAC meeting lastyear (2year (2ndnd October 2012) October 2012)
• If the aims are:
– F-based management– Biomass rebuilding– Focus on MSY– e.g. lower limit of F range
then there are alternative options outside of the MP
Three basic principlesThree basic principles
• Decisions made should be based on:
– Scientific advice
– Sustainability
– Need for continued discard reduction
Included with Defra letter to Lowri EvansIncluded with Defra letter to Lowri Evansdated 22dated 22ndnd October 2012 October 2012
6.3.3.10 EU-Norway request on6.3.3.10 EU-Norway request onNorth Sea cod discard ratesNorth Sea cod discard rates
UK’s presented approach last yearUK’s presented approach last year
What about alternative options for 2014
based on this year’s
ACOM advice?
• Gradual improvement in recent years ...
• F ~ 0.4 between Fpa and FMSY
• SSB now in the vicinity of Blim
• Recruitment since 2000 has been poor
• Proportion discarded in recent years remains higher than in past
ICES’ advice released June 2013ICES’ advice released June 2013
Options: what next?Options: what next?
– Roll-over of the 2013 TAC in 2014 [ then maintain in 2015 and 2016 to illustrate stock development]
– …many other options and choices
To be aware:– Joint EU-Norway request on TAC setting
options ... maintaining target F=0.4 ... maintaining constant TAC
– ADG (8-10 October 2013), Advice released on Friday 18 October 2013
Fishing mortality:
2013 ro 2013 ro + 5%2013 ro + 10% 2013 ro + 15% 2013 ro + 20%
2014 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.282015 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.222016 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.17 0.18
Spawning stock biomass:
2013 ro 2013 ro + 5%2013 ro + 10% 2013 ro + 15% 2013 ro + 20%
2015 124.1 122.5 120.7 119.0 117.22016 171.3 167.2 162.6 158.5 154.32017 222.8 215.9 208.5 201.8 194.3
%change2016:2014 95 91 85 81 76
%change2017:2014 154 146 138 130 121
Cefas’ exploratory evaluationsCefas’ exploratory evaluations
Caution –recruitment ?
Future recruitment/stock size?Future recruitment/stock size?
Advice June 2013
6.3.5.5 EU-Norway request on TAC6.3.5.5 EU-Norway request on TACsetting options for codsetting options for cod
SummarySummary
As last year in the scenarios developed by the UK, there are alternative options to cod management outside of the MP.
Once again, the aims may be:
– F-based management– Biomass rebuilding– Focus on MSY– Discard reduction
