Investigating Hider Theory ©2004 Alidade Incorporated. All Rights Reserved.
Investigating “Hider” Theory
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Transcript of Investigating “Hider” Theory
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Investigating “Hider” Theory
New Horizons in Search Theory4th Workshop
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Presentations
• Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito
• Group 2: ASW and Other Military ExamplesMichelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Group 1: Hiding Contraband (WMD)
Steve Basile, Jeff Cares, Bill Glenney, Tim Mertens, Frank Tito
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Operational Context• General Competitive
Context– Hider, Searcher with active
strategies– Not necessarily mirror image
strategies• Forces, Elements Involved
(all have some signature)– Organization
• Policy makers, financiers, scientists, technicians, deliverers, suppliers
• Communications, contracts, policies, links, social networks, trust, fear, etc.
– Resources • Could be outwardly benign,
particularly in isolation• e.g., site, money, raw
materials, recipe, etc.• Could be virtual, distributed
– Process• Arrangement of resources
and organization to produce contraband
– Contraband• End product of a process
• Environmental Considerations– Size of the thing
and the area in which it is hidden
– Background (ambient noise in the environment)
– Backyard (familiarity with background)
– Neutral or unrelated activity (affects positively or negatively)
– Clutter, evasion, deception, decoy, camouflage
GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Operational Problem• Hide what?
– Organization, resources, process or contraband
– Specifically undeclared WMD
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive
• Stockpile volume equivalent to a 3-car garage
• Hide where?– Within a country
• With exceptions, e.g., resources, people, money can go global
• Hide why?– Because it is illegal
• Prevent sanctions• Protect sovereignty
– Surprise– Obscure scale
• Ambiguity about intentions, capability, size of arsenal, readiness
– Protect stockpile• For later use,
survivability, prevent theft, sale value, deterrent value
– Affect world/regional/local opinion
• Sympathy for regime if WMD remains hidden
• Affect political events (e.g., 2004 US election)
• Support larger political strategy
• Hide when?– For months or years
GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Major Process Elements
• What are the major factors that impact hider success?
• What are the relationships between these major factors?
• Are any of these substantially greater than the others?
GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Process Diagram
PROCESS
CONTRABAND
RESOURCES
ORGANIZATION
GROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Network Strategy
400
300
200
100
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Ratio of Buttons to Strings
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Kauffman, At Home in the Universe, p.57
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Insights and Conclusions
• Many of the parts are in plain sight• Links are often the things that are
telling– Hider needs “invisible thread”
• Search for contraband very like ASW– Hider relies on big area/small
stockpile
• Hider relies on knowledge or searcher’s capabilities, location
• High combinatoric space to hide in– Network of org + resourcesGROUP 1: Hiding Contraband
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Group 2: ASW and Other Military Examples
Michelle Jarvais, David Jarvis, Rich Katz, Brian McCue, Bill Pruitt
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Potential Operational Scenarios• Orange ASUW on Blue HVU (Carrier)
– Transiting– Flights Operations
• “Dipping Game”• SOF Scenario – Minimize hiding discontinuities
(hiders coming from a hider)
• Submarine vs. submarine example– Searcher who is also a hider– Differences in hiding between nuclear, diesel and
AIP subs• “The Great Scud Hide”
– Any type of mobile missile launchers (TELs, Soviet nuclear trucks)
• Mine fields• SSBN Example
– Our mission is to hide
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier
• General competitive context– Orange trying to sink Blue Carrier in one of two
scenarios, transiting to an operational area and carrier flight operations in a coastal area
• Forces, elements involved– Orange
• Subs• OIA- Other Information Assets (aircraft to cue
subs, etc.)– Blue
• Carrier (PRIMARY HIDER) - a big ship in a bigger ocean
• Subs• Helicopters• Other Information Assets (surface escorts, air,
satellites, etc.)• Environmental considerations
– Water depth, distance from coastline, conditions of the body of water (salinity, temperature, bottom type, etc.)
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Orange Sub Orange OIA
Blue Carrier Search & KillHIDE
CueHIDE
Blue Sub HIDE, Search & KillSearch & Kill
CueHIDE
Blue Helo HIDE
Search & KillN/AN/A
Blue OIA N/ACue
Jamming, spoofing, hacking, cyberwar
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context: Submarine Attack on Carrier
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier• Describe the specific Hider
application– Hide what?
• The PRIMARY HIDER is the Blue Carrier• SECONDARY HIDERS include the Orange
Sub & Blue Sub
– Hide where?• Transiting to the area of operations• Operating off the coast of a hostile country
– Hide why?• To provide air operations
– Hide when?• For duration of transit and of air operations—
and return transit
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Sub on CV
Sub on Sub
Helo on Sub
Sub on Sub
R ? ? ? ?
V ? ? ? ?
T ? ? ? ?
A ? ? ? ?
P = 1 – e-2RVT/A
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Pseudo-Facts
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
321 γγγγ
++i
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Operational Context:Submarine Attack on Carrier – Some Real Math
• Is his sub going to find my sub before my sub finds his carrier?
• Some math: given three exponential processes w/ rates γ1 , γ2, and γ3, the probability that event i has happens first is:
• The γ’s are the various 2RVT/A’s.
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
Major Process Elements
• Hide How?– What are the major factors that impact hider
success?• Standoff distance from the shore, farther out
you are the better you can hide• Predictability of carrier movement, both during
transit and during flights operations (like to turn into the wind)
– What are the relationships between these major factors?
– Are any of these substantially greater than the others?
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
GROUP 2: ASW & Military Examples
Insights and Conclusions• The importance of the duality of the
searcher/hider– The notion of split personality– Each has its own behavior– However, there are links between the
searcher/hider aspects of the personality
• There is a network of interactions searchers and hiders
• Local vs. global behavior– Change of behavior based on local
interactions
• What would be the applicability of agent-based models to Hider theory?
Saturday, April 22, 2023
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Investigating “Hider” Theory
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