Investigating food web effects

due to man-made structures using

Coupled Spatial Modelling (COSM)Dr Christopher Lynam

1st December 2016Imperial College

London

COSM: aim and specific objectivesTo model consequences of the existing man-made structures on the ecosystem

1. To evaluate the habitat preferences of key functional groups of infauna, epifauna and fish

2. To develop a state-of-the-art modelling tool, Ecospace, that links spatio-temporal data layers with food-web dynamics

3. To explore the role of man-made structures on the food web relative to natural variation and other pressures through scenarios

Habitat mapping

plus covariates

and pressures

(WP1)

Simulation (WP4)

Scenario testing

– change in habitat

(removing hard substrates)

– natural variation

Hypothesis generation

Development and testing (WP2, WP3)

production at structures and

dispersal/corridors linking locations

COSM in a nutshell

Ecopath International

Initiative (EII)

Objective 1: HighlightsTo evaluate the habitat preferences of key functional groups

• Why? • to help set up model and

• to evaluate the performance of the model

• Key data• Natural habitat: substrate, bathymetry, temperature, salinity.

• Artificial habitat: oil and gas platforms, pipelines, wind turbines, wrecks.

• Fish: International Bottom Trawl Surveys and Dutch Beam Trawl Survey.

• Benthos: North Sea benthos surveys plus Cefas trait database.

Data compiled: COSM & EcoConnectBathymetry (Defra DEM; EMODnet)

Seabed substrate (EMODnet 2016; EUSeaMap 2011)

Fixed platform database; Offshore installations inventory (OGUK 2012; OSPAR 2015)

Renewable Energy Planning Database (DECC 2016)

Wind energy statistics (RenewableUK)

Offshore wind export power cables (Crown Estate)

Wind turbine locations and subsurface cables (KIS-ORCA)

Offshore installations - surface & subsurface infrastructure (Crown Estate)

Buoys and moorings (Wageningen Marine Research)

Wrecks (wrecksite.eu)

Ocean biogeochemistry (GETM-ERSEM-BFM hindcast, from S. van Leeuwen Cefas)

Plankton functional group data (SAHFOS)

Seal usage spatial data and Cetacean survey data (Univ. of St Andrews/SMRU)

Salinity and temperature (Copernicus)

Fishing activity from VMS (for comparison against Ecospace model predictions) (MMO)

Natural habitat (sediment & bathymetry)

Bathymetry (source: Defra DEM UK EEZ plus EMODnetbathymetry)

Artificial habitat (structures)

(source: wrecksite.eu)

Environmental data (water column temperature & salinity)

2006-2016 2006-2016

Evaluating the habitat preferences…

• How?• Summary statistics

(e.g. proportion of species occurrence / abundance by habitat)

• Generalised Additive Modelling (GAMs) for key

functional groups vs environment and substrate (natural and artificial)

Epifaunal analyses

literature review to find which species were relevant for man-made structure attachment (hard substratum)

Determined whether they were a:

primary coloniser (settle mostly on inorganic structure)

secondary coloniser (settling mostly on animals/plants)

indifferent (recorded on both)

103 taxa found from >200 species eligible

in dataset from IBTS

stations 1 or more taxon from 103 found

Epifaunal analyses At genus level dominated by 14 taxa

TAXA (GENUS) GROUP SEDIMENT DEPTH OTHER

ALCYONIDIUM Bryozoans Rocks, shells, stones

Low intertidal to 100m

FLUSTRA Bryozoans Coarse, hard substrate

Shallow sublittoral

ALCYONIUM Soft coral Rock, shells, other animals

Sublittoral to 50m

ASCIDIELLA Ascidians Stones, shells Low intertidal to 80m

Piers

EPIZOANTHUS Anemone Rock, stones, shells

Low intertidal to 100m

HYDROIDES Polychaete Hard substrata Harbour fouling species

TUBULARIA Hydroids Rock, algae shallow water to 25m

BALANUS Barnacle Any hard substrate

Low intertidal to 150m

ELECTRA Bryozoans Any hard Intertidal to 50m LAFOEA Hydroids Rock, shell,

hydroids “subtidal”

ADAMSIA Anemone Other animal Sublittoral to 200m Nearly Exclusively on P. prideaux

BOLOCERA Anemone Rock, stones, shells

Sublittoral 20 to 2000m

EUCRATEA Bryozoans Variety of hard substrata

Low intertidal to 75m

VERRUCA Barnacle Rocks Low intertidal to 500m

Epifaunal occurrence

• Not all taxa found throughout the area

• Attempting to model functional groups statistically with covariate information

• Generate information to guide Ecospace and compare outputs

modelled occurrence (preliminary analyses)widespread functional groups linked to depth

Small mobile epifauna Sessile epifauna

Fish functional groups

Extracting information from survey for 44 functional groups (of the Ecospace models 69)

Modelling abundance and presence/absence using habitat information (substrate and environment)

Generate information to guide Ecospace and compare outputs

Fishing trawl stations IBTS

Isolate the effect of substrate from other covariates

flounder Haddock

(adult)

Statistical model distribution of fishSeabed species associated with shallow sand habitat

Lesser weever – Echiichthys vipera Flounder - Platichthys flesus

Statistical model of fish (early results)Species associated with pelagic realm (plankton feeders)

Garfish – Belone belone Blue whiting - Micromesistius poutassou

Statistical model of fish (early results)Widespread predatory species also found at coarse and rock substrate

Gurnards – functional group Horse mackerel - Trachurus trachurus

temperature salinity

depth trend

Adult cod preferences and statistical predictions

Substrate

preference

pre

fere

nce

COSM: specific objective 2

To develop a state-of-the-art modelling tool that links spatio-temporal data layers with food-web dynamics

The haddock

perspective

in the model

Modelling approach

Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a free ecological/ecosystem modelling software suite with three main components:

Ecopath – a static, mass-balanced snapshot of the system

Ecosim – a time dynamic simulation module for policy exploration

Ecospace – a spatial and temporal dynamic module

http://ecopath.org/

Starting point

Ecopath – a static mass-balanced snapshot

http://ecopath.org/

mass-balance

= conservation

of mass

Requires:

• production rates

• consumption rates

• respiration rates

• diet compositions

Temporal fitting

Ecosim – a time dynamic simulation module

Estimate vulnerability of

functional group to predator.

Feeding time effects

Apply time forcing functions

http://ecopath.org/

www.ices.dkNorth Sea draws on 116 time-seriesEwE ‘key-run’ (temporal) completed by Steve Mackinson, Clement Garcia, Christopher Lynam

Ecospace progress – trial run based on natural substrates only

Ecospace trial – first diagnostic

Ecospace – next steps

Now that we have spatial data collated, include

• Artificial habitat (structures) and primary production in Ecospace

• Code relationships between functional group habitat usage and depth

• Code relationships between production and temperature [link to SIGNAL]

• Link seabirds and seal foraging in model to information from MAPS

• Implement pathways between structures [EcoConnect, RECON, Anchor]

COSM: specific objective 3 (…for 2017)

To explore the role of man-made structures on the food web relative to natural variation (primary production) and other pressures (fishing)

Scenario development [draw on developments in UNDINE and Shadow]

Thank you for your attention!

And thanks to the COSM team!

WP1 empirical analyses: Serena Wright, Clement Garcia, Paulette Posen

WP2 software development: Jeroen Steenbeek (EII), Christopher Lynam

WP3/4 model testing simulations: Christopher Lynam, Clement Garcia

Project Manager: Susana Lincoln

Project sponsor: Kieran Hyder

Data Manager: Joanna Whittle

[Plus insight from Mark Kirby and John Shepherd and ISAB]

Ecopath International

Initiative (EII)