Inveatment analysis and portfolio management
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Transcript of Inveatment analysis and portfolio management
o Any investment involves a current commitment of
funds for some period of time in order to derive
future payments that will compensate for:
o the time the funds are committed (the real rate of
return)
o the expected rate of inflation (inflation premium)
o uncertainty of future flow of funds (risk premium)
1 2 ... NR R RAM
N
1
1 21 1 ... 1 1NNGM R R R
AM = Arithmetic Mean
GM = Geometric Mean
Ri = Annual HPRs
N = Number of years
o The mean historical rate of return for a
portfolio of investments is measured as
the weighted average of the HPRs for
the individual investments in the
portfolio, or the overall change in the
value of the original portfolio
o Risk is the uncertainty whether an
investment will earn its expected rate of
return
o Probability is the likelihood of an outcome
))(RP(
Return) (Possible Return) ofy Probabilit( )E(R
1
1
i
ii
n
i
n
i
o Much of modern finance is based on the
principle that investors are risk averse
o Risk aversion refers to the assumption that,
all else being equal, most investors will
choose the least risky alternative and that
they will not accept additional risk unless
they are compensated in the form of higher
return
N
HPRE i
n
1i
2
i
2
HPRWhere:
= Variance (of the pop)
HPR = Holding Period Return i
E(HPR)i = Expected HPR*
N = Number of years
22
i i
1
(P ) R E(R)n
i
Note: Because we multiply by the
probability of each return occurring,
we do NOT divide by N. If each
probability is the same for all returns,
then the variance can be calculated by
either multiplying by the probability or
dividing by N.
= Variance
Ri = Return in period i
E(R) = Expected Return
Pi = Probability of Ri occurring
2
i i i
1
1
22
i i i
1
P[R -E(R )]
P [R -E(R )]
n
i
n
i
Standard Deviation is a measure of
dispersion around the mean. The higher
the standard deviation, the greater the
dispersion of returns around the mean and
the greater the risk.
o Coefficient of variation (CV) is a measure
of relative variability
o CV indicates risk per unit of return, thus
making comparisons easier among
investments with large differences in mean
returns
o Three factors influence an
investor’s required rate of return
oReal rate of return
oExpected rate of inflation during the
period
oRisk
oAssumes no inflation.
oAssumes no uncertainty about future cash flows.
oInfluenced by the time preference for consumption of income and investment opportunities in the economy
1 1 1Nominal Real Expected Inflation
The nominal risk free rate of return is
dependent upon:
Conditions in the Capital Markets
Expected Rate of Inflation
o Five factors affect the standard
deviation of returns over time.
oBusiness risk:
oFinancial risk
oLiquidity risk
oExchange rate risk
oCountry risk
oUncertainty of income flows caused by the
nature of a firm’s business
oSales volatility and operating leverage
determine the level of business risk.
oUncertainty caused by the use of debt financing.
oBorrowing requires fixed payments which must be paid ahead of payments to stockholders.
oThe use of debt increases uncertainty of stockholder income and causes an increase in the stock’s risk premium.
o the uncertainty introduced by the secondary market
for an investment.
oHow long will it take to convert an investment into cash?
oHow certain is the price that will be received?
o the uncertainty introduced by acquiring securities
denominated in a currency different from that of the
investor.
o Changes in exchange rates affect the investors return
when converting an investment back into the
“home” currency.
o Country risk (also called political risk) refers to the
uncertainty of returns caused by the possibility of a
major change in the political or economic
environment in a country.
o Individuals who invest in countries that have
unstable political-economic systems must include a
country risk-premium when determining their
required rate of return