Introduction - What Really Wins Money€¦ · Introduction We all know there ... to make up to £50...

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IntroductionWe all know there are a lot of systems out there that don’t work and unfortunately many of us have probably lost mon-ey to some of them in the past.

But at What Really Wins Money we want to find the systems that actually work and can make you a profit. To achieve this we have a team of testers who try out the systems for real.

All the reviews in this report are from past issues of What Really Wins Money. Our tipsters follow these services over a number of months and so where relevant the updates have been included to provide you with the full review.

All the best

Clive KeelingEditor, What Really Wins Money

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betfairatm.comAnother Betting system our tester raved about over the recent months comes from the Steve Davidson stable of Bet-ting systems and Strategies.

Steve is a no-nonsense Ozzie who has the ability to sniff out profitable betting strategies more often than not, and in Betfair ATM he seems to have come up with another.

There are a few qualifiers to using this strategy.

The first of course is that you must have a Betfair account.

Secondly this strategy is a live market strategy, so you must be in a position to be able to follow the betting markets daily, specifically on the UK and Irish Horse Racing.

If you look at the screenshots at www.betfairatm.com, you will deduce that this is a Place Only Betting System.

Place Only is unique to Betfair and to only a handful of Bookmakers. In essence, you are backing a horse in a 7 runner race ( or lower) to finish in the first 2. If you have backed the horse to place and he wins, you do not get paid out any more.

In an 8 runner+ race, Place only terms cover horses finish-ing 1st, 2nd and 3rd. In a 16 runner+ handicap, a Place Only Bet will be paid out on the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed horses.

Admittedly, it is far easier to back a horse to place, particu-larly in 8 runner races ( which are the lowest number of runners which pay out for 3 places) and so any place only

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backing strategy must have a high strike rate.

If it is easier to back a horse to place, then this will be re-flected in the odds which will be considerably shorter than in the Win only market.

Typically the odds you will encounter using Betfair ATM will be odds On, meaning your returns are lower than your stake.

Another unique aspect of BetfairATM is the use of Betfair’s In-Play Betting facility for the Place-Only Market.

Place only betting on Betfair didn’t used to go in-play. Now it does, it opens up the door for you to monitor a horse race for a short while, and pounce in play when conditions favour you.

Betfair ATM is not a rules based system per se, it is more of a betting strategy. Once it is grasped, though, it has turned a profit in all of the tests we have conducted using it.

Using the Win only market in-play, Betfair ATM users moni-tor that Win Only market and look for a trigger which will enable them to back a certain horse to place only.

I would recommend specialized software with BetfairATM as speed is of the essence in-play. Software such as Fairbot, which the system author uses, enables 1 second refresh of the odds, as well as an ability for you to look at the win and the place only markets .

The strike rate has consistently been at around the 80% mark and the average odds for our tester during his test period have been at around 1.45. This equals profit to level stakes.

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The author himself uses modest stakes, in the region of $10-$15 and he seems to have the ability to make upwards of $50 per day +.

The examples on the manual are adequate but preference would have been for live videos, as this is a live in-play bet-ting strategy. The videos could showcase the immediacy of the author’s strategy in action.

Our tester listed a number of benefits of Betfair ATM , which included an ability, based on stakes applied, to make up to £50 or more a day. He also noted that the strike rate seems to maintain itself at 80% minimum. This is impressive for a backing strategy, but by the same token is a requirement if the average odds at 1.45 ( meaning a £100 stake will return £45).

Our tester found the strategy, once learnt, was very easy to execute. It is a betting strategy that can be used on all horse racing , UK and Ireland, on the Flat and Over the jumps – it is, therefore, a year long strategy. Betfair ATM is also rela-tively flexible as it does not require the user to follow a specific race at a specific time.

So, when I said that Betfair ATM can only be used by those able to follow the Live Betting Markets, I was precluding those available at weekends and for evening Racing, which is more prevalent in the Summer Months.

The Level stakes method of staking is the simplest method of staking. Users have experimented with other staking plans to increase returns and even set rules of their own, but that is over egging the pudding.

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In using a betting exchange, your account will not be re-stricted when you win. In fact, betting exchanges positively encourage winning punters!

Betfair ATM has received a huge ‘ thumbs up’ from our test-er. It does require a degree of practice at the start, and will ultimately, I feel, require an investment in Betfair Software in order to optimize the process.

It is a long term, consistently profitable strategy and has been profitable since 2010 when our tester first started.

In Summary it makes you a consistent £50-100 per day from Betfair in-play. The strike rate is above 80% and it is very easy to execute. It is also very flexible as it can be used on both flat and jump racing and at a time that suits you.

This is a system that has been tested for over 3 years on UK horse racing and will never stop working. It is a level stakes backing method so no big liabilities and no need for bookies accounts as you use Betfair. It has been rated as a top-rated system by a host of independent betting sites across Europe and the UK and I always include it in my list of favourite betting systems.

If you can bet live in the in-play market, this is a cracking little system.

www.betfairatm.com

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Bonus BaggingHaving used this service for a week I believe I understand enough about how this service operates.

As the sales page states this service shows “you how to cash out all bonuses offered by casinos and bookmakers com-pletely risk free and make £1000’s in RISK FREE profit”. You could, of course, do this for yourself but it is a faff, and for a one-off payment of £27 (currently) Mike does all the hard-work for you making this hassle free.

Once subscribed, just send an email to Mike (proprietor), ask for a bet and he will reply with clear, straightforward instructions on what to do. Then just email each time you are ready to proceed. Unless you can get someone to place the bets for you, it couldn’t be any easier.

I paid the one off subscription cost out of the first day’s profits. In total, I have made £200 profit, or around £20 per day – I could have made more if I pushed. So, £500 per month looks very realistic to me and £600, or more, looks readily achievable.

For anyone who wishes to build their betting bank, earn a small but worthwhile second income, boost their pension or just likes making a (no-risk) profit, Bonus Bagging is highly recommended.

Bonus Bagging in my opinion is superb value for money and thoroughly deserves an update. I don’t know if there are any services that charge a one-off fee of £27 and make a profit, I’m pretty sure there aren’t any. As for systems that charge

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£27, they are as common as muck – and about as profitable!

Of all the £27 offerings (and £37, £47 and £97 come to that), this is the best value I have come across – a one-off fee and excellent support. I know that all the information is available for free, but for anyone who is unfamiliar with bonus bag-ging or finds it too much hassle, or (like me) simply had not got round to taking advantage of it, this represents an excel-lent investment. It won’t make anyone a millionaire, but the only way not to make money from it is to do nothing.

HIGHLY RECOMMENDED

www.bonusbagging.co.uk

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In-Play Trading Stats ScannerI love my football statistics. I really do. It’s the backbone of my own football trading service, www.drt.club.

The In-Play Trading Stats Scanner service is web-browser software which provides you with football statistics for football matches that go in-running at www.betfair.com. Those stats are all in one place, and configured in such a way that they provide you with an instant flavour for who’s on top during a game.

The In-Play Trading scanner provides you with statistics for both teams in the match in the following categories:

• Shots on target• Shots off target• Corners• Red cards• Yellow cards• Penalties• Possession• Pressure index

These are the only statistics you really need in order to profit from in-play trading. This piece of software has trans-formed my profitability and the profitability of my live chat-ters at www.drt.club when I operate my live chat sessions at the weekend.

The software enabled me to lay a team during a recent live chat session at odds of 1.04 and win. That’s the same as backing a team at odds of 25/1! This is one of many profit-able bets and trades I have made using the in-play stats.

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Once you are able to read the statistics, this software will transform the way you football bettors and traders operate.

The pressure index is a unique innovation and works using some weird and wonderful formula based on the last 10 minutes of play. The pressure index shows the relationship between recent shots on goal and possession. The bigger the figure, the more likely a team is to score. The team with an outstanding pressure index reading are the team really attacking.

This index in itself has proven to be extremely accurate. The scanner allows you to create your own strategies based on the statistics that unfold as the match is being played.

I have become proficient at reading the stats using this scanner; so much so, that some of my live chatters at www.drt.club think Mystic Meg is helping me out!

I pay £29 per month currently (out of my own pocket – no freebies here!) which offers extreme value for money. This is an integral part of my football trading now. Just like the arrival of Fairbot, I don’t trade football without it. If you are a seasoned football trader and want a way of viewing key in-play stats for in-running football matches, then this scan-ner is highly recommended.

Of course, these inplay stats are available at other websites for free, such as www.bet365.com, www.flashscore.com, www.soccerway.com and even www.betfair.com, but having the stats on one single page is the real selling point here.

Highly recommended.

http://www.inplaytrading.com

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Little AcornsLittle Acorns is a lay system devised by Andrew David. It is, though, a Lay System with a Twist.

Laying is, effectively, the ability to back a horse to lose, and has opened up a whole new world of betting opportunities for Punters, thanks to www.betfair.com and other bet-ting exchanges. If you actually visit www.betfair.com, click on their Help and Learning Centre, and click on the link, “What does the term lay mean, and what is a lay bet?”, this will provide you with a ready introduction . This Help and Learning Centre also addresses the Liability issue.

Liability is something that has plagued a number of laying systems over time.

With this sytem you will be Laying favourites which solves the liability and liquidity issues. With Little Acorns you will never be laying a horse at odds over 2.00.

What does this mean? Let’s look at 2 scenarios. The first scenario deals with laying a horse at over 2.00. The second scenario looks at laying a horse below 2.00.

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In this first scenario, we lay a horse at odds of 5.00 to win £10. Our liability is £40. £40 is the amount of money you lose if the horse wins its race.

Now let’s look at what happens when we lay a horse at odds of 2.00 or lower.

In order to win the same £10, our liability in laying Lys-sio at odds of 1.69 is £6.90. Our liability is actually smaller than our stake. This is the perfect scenario for the layer, and

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solves the Liability issue.

The 2nd main problem with laying systems is the liquidity is-sue. As Betfair is a person-to-person exchange, the odds and the amounts staked are determined by the Punters. When we focus on favourites, we are immediately focusing on the horse who is attracting the most attention and the most money.

Compare Lyssio below, who has £93 available to lay him at odds of 1.69, £304 available at 1.7 and £334 at 1.71 ( and this is some 3 hours before the race is due off)

To Sir Dylan ( below) who has only £14 available to lay at 16.5, and only £3 at 17

With these twin issues of liability and liquidity sorted out, Little Acorns is ready to roll.

During testing, Little Acorns really stood up well, and provided the consistent returns which the marketing had claimed. Here’s what our Beta Tester had to say.

Little Acorns – Beta Tester Review

By Paul K

An acorn takes about eight months to grow into a sapling,

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many years more to become an oak tree. Is this an indica-tion of the likely profit growth of a lay-betting system called Little Acorns?

Little Acorns arrives as a PDF manual of twenty-four pages. The system is based on the observation that favourites don’t always win, and the reasonable assumption that this state of affairs will continue in the future.

The selection process is simplicity itself: log on to Betfair and click on the first of the day’s races. The best time to do this according to Andrew David, the creator of Little Acorns, is 10am, when the markets have had a chance to form.

You simply apply the formula and if the race qualifies, place your lay bet and then move on to the next race.

During the three months of testing I found 20 bets on the first check through the cards. However, Andrew recom-mends that during this initial search you should also note down races which are close to qualifying, and check these during the fifteen minutes before the off. By doing just that I found an additional 89 bets!

So the obvious question is: Is it worth it and can you make a profit?

The answer is: Yes, very much so, especially if you follow the right staking plan.

How does the staking plan work?

Much of the manual describes the three staking plans you can use with this system. The simplest – Staking Plan C – is (simply) betting one point level stakes.

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This is a very low risk strategy, with an advised bank of twenty points and according to Andrew, by following this a profit of between two and five points can be made every month. This claim is based on a strike rate of 51% and a certain average lay price. This is how my bank shaped up during the test:

As you can see, the expected profit of between six and fifteen points over three months was not quite realized and this was due to two key factors. During testing the strike rate I managed to achieve was just over 8% lower and the average price I laid was around 5% higher. Even though these amounts are small they weren’t, when combined, insignificant and for that reason I probably wouldn’t advise following this staking plan.

Another staking plan – Staking Plan B requires a bank of 150 points and the method is to bet one point stakes until there is a loss. You then add the loss to the one point of the next bet to determine the new stake. This is known as loss recovery staking and the danger with this plan is that with a long losing run, the stakes will become uncomfortably high.

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The longest losing run that I experienced during this test was five and the stake for the sixth bet was 17.76 points. Staking Plan B is a little riskier and the stakes could get quite high if you were to hit a particularly long losing run. For example if you were to get to 8 losing bets, on the 9th you’d be staking nearly £300 (at £2 stakes). I should em-phasise that this never happened during my test! However, if you choose this plan you should, I think, be aware of the possible pitfalls.

Even though this plan carries a larger risk, it managed to provide a profit of 42.26 points over the ninety-one days of testing and the bank was never lower than 142 points. This, by any measure is a substantial profit.

Staking Plan A is also a loss recovery method and this one follows the Fibonacci sequence -

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21. So as before, one point stakes until you get a loser, whereupon your stake is the next number in the list. After each loser you move up, after a winner you drop back to the start.

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This plan uses an advised 147 point bank and the reason this is larger than that for Plan B is that it recovers losses more slowly, because if you get a loss with a twenty-one point stake, you’re directed to revert back to the beginning with one point.

A profit of 13.71 points was the result here but this can be quite dramatically improved by adopting a slightly more aggressive approach and dropping the second “1” at the beginning of the sequence and moving straight on to the “2”. By staking two points after the first losing bet I made a total profit of 23.06 points, and the largest stake was a fairly comfortable 13 points.

There is, however, an even more profitable method…

When you read the manual, it becomes evident that Andrew David has put a lot of work in to his system.

However I actually found that by adapting it slightly and using a more conventional application of the Fibonacci sequence as a staking plan it was even more effective. I’ll

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explain what I mean by that. When you have a winner after a losing sequence you go back only two steps, not drop back to the start. Utilizing this method, the profit was a stagger-ing 53.58 points and the largest stake was again 13 points.

So if you’re still reading, it’s time for a summary.

This system can take up a bit of your time and if you can’t pay some attention to Betfair during the working day then this is not for you. You could, though, have a lot of fun with it at the weekends or on your days off.

There is no doubt that if you adopt a loss recovery staking plan, you will make a profit with this system. You will need to decide for yourself a stake you are comfortable with and then go on one bet at a time.

Recommended

Paul was delighted overall and utilizing his own take on the “ Fibonacci “ Staking plan, produced an excellent return.

As part of the test, we interviewed the author of Little Acorns, Andrew David, about the background to Little Acorns.

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“My focus in developing Little Acorns was primarily cen-tered on the end user. In my experience punters hate los-ing and dread long losing runs that can see most out of the game before they can reap the rewards of the upturn. Therefore, with Little Acorns I’ve included a few staking op-tions ( which can be seen in Paul’s review ) that would suit everyone’s attitude to risk. Some are more aggressive than others, but either way you will get the edge as Little Acorns simply exploits the unreliability of horse racing, to lead the end user to a profitable conclusion overall. “

Overall our tester Paul was delighted with his findings and betting experience. If you can follow the live betting, then Little Acorns will work well ( to be fair there is a staking plan for those placing their bets in the morning).

www.tryacorns.co.uk

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TheBetEngine.co.ukFor those of you who are unable to follow live betting, and have a portfolio of backing and laying betting systems which you would like to follow, using particularly www.bet-fair.com, then a betting bot is the most efficient solution.

A betting bot will automate your betting systems and en-sure the betting system rules are followed. The bot itself therefore relies on you to provide it with your betting systems and tipster’s tips. Our tester for instance has been using the Bet Engine to actually place the lay bets part of www.beaumontsbets.com ‘s strategy, as well as running the Bot on a number of live strategies and strategies where he has an idea, and wants to see how that idea fares in test mode.

Betting systems for me live and die by their staking plan/money management. You must have a staking plan in order to profit long-term from your Betting, and the Bet Engine (abbreviated to TBE) provides a wide selection of staking plans for both the backer and the layer (remembering that this is a Betting Bot for specific use on Betfair).

These staking plans are reproduced here:

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The standard level stakes are there, along with your more technical staking plans such as Labouchere and Kelly.

I have found that various betting systems operate better with staking plans other than Level Stakes, so an ability to test a betting idea using 15 other staking plans is a great boon. Readers of What Really Wins Money know that my HomeGrown Betting Systems use an array of different stak-ing plans, all proven to maximize profits while minimizing downside.

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TBE enables the user to try out up to 10 different betting systems , which shows some versatility. These systems can have different filters and different rules and be run in Test Mode or Live mode.

This versatility shown by this Betting Bot means that you must first read and acquaint yourself with the accompany-ing Users’ Manual. This is a must really, particularly as the Live Mode will be using your money!! In fact, there is a 7 day trial at the website where you can download the manu-al for free. I would recommend reading it.

Our Tester was delighted after his first week, and was able to follow 6 systems live and 3 in test mode. He found that TBE’s biggest asset is its reliability. There was not one mis-placed bet in that first month’s trial. TBE also kept track of the Test Mode systems as well as the Real Live systems, pro-viding a running total profit and loss for each. These results were available to export into a .csv format, enabling you to see the outcomes via an Excel spreadsheet.

The general features of the Bet Engine are numerous. You can see them at: www.thebetengine.co.uk/features1.htm

They enable a whole different set of filters to be applied, from filtering races by course, distance , surface ( if you want to specialize on the all weather tracks for example, as I do),or race type (again I have a betting system which lays certain horses in Novice Hurdle races only. It would be perfectly suited to a betting bot!).

Our Tester found a huge psychological benefit of using TBE,

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and that was the removal of emotion from his betting sys-tems. He has rules based systems, but every once in a while, he reacts when a system bet does not seem to be running as expected.

With TBE, this emotion is removed. It follows the rules, and places the bets as advised.

The key to TBE’s success is its reliability. For a 3 month timespan our tester used TBE , and there was not one mis-placed bet in that time. He is so impressed that he has now included TBE as the mainstay in his testing of other Betting Systems.

Once you build a portfolio of Betting Systems, and that’s something I try to do at What Really Wins Money – provide you with Homegrown betting systems with specific staking plans and easy rules - then you may need a betting bot in order to free up your time, and manage your Betfair Portfo-lio. The Bet Engine was shown to be ultra reliable, and ultra flexible during our test and comes highly recommended.

www.thebetengine.co.uk

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