Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9
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Transcript of Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9
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Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA)
Lesson 9
Data Sources for Estimating GDP
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Censuses (1)• Population census:
– Size of population by gender and age– Growth rates– Housing, employment
• Agricultural census– Crop production– Livestock type and numbers– Income and expenditure
• These censuses are usually carried out every ten years and provide the benchmark figures which can be extrapolated by volume indicators for the years between censuses.
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Censuses (2)• Industry
– Production– Inputs– Capital formation– Employment– Inventories
• Housing– Numbers– Type of construction– Facilities– Year when built
• Benchmark estimates extrapolated for years between censuses
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Living Standards Measurement Study• The LSMS is a World Bank program helping
countries to measure living standards through household surveys and community surveys.
• LSMS surveys include modules on a large number of demographic, social and economic topics.
• LSMS surveys provide benchmark data for national accounts on household expenditure and income, employment, household and business assets, food intake ….
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Enterprise surveys (1)
• Cover enterprises operating from fixed locations• Often carried out annually but in some countries
less frequently• Collect data on sales, purchases, inventories,
wages and employment.• May be tailored to the kind of activity, e.g.:– Retail outlet– Restaurant– Factory
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Enterprise surveys (2)• Short or long questionnaires?• For the national accounts we are mainly
interested in wages and salaries paid and profits earned.
• Can we ask directly for profits? • Or do we need longer questionnaires asking
about all outputs and all inputs?• Some countries have tried experiments.
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Results of survey of unorganized manufacturing enterprises. India, 2000/2001
All Urban RuralGVA: based on detailed questions 71,495 89,664 43,852
GVA: based on short questions 68,277 85,615 41,898
Gap % -4,50 -4,52 -4,46
No. Observations 150,775 90,978 59,797
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Household Surveys• Income and expenditure surveys
– Monthly, quarterly, annually ?– Diaries or memory– Recall period– Income/expenditure consistency
• Labor force surveys– Monthly, quarterly, annual– Working or not– Earnings– Kind of activity– Occupation
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Combined Household/Enterprise Surveys (1-2 Surveys)
Household survey (1)• Usually a labour force
survey• Extra questions included
to determine if anyone in the household is running a business
• These households form the survey frame for the enterprise survey
Enterprise survey (2)• Type of business• Number of employees• Family workers• Sales• Business expenses• Value added;
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Administrative sourcesGovernment accounts
• Government accounts– Budget, provisional, final.– IMF Government Finance Statistics. This is a better
source for the national accounts than the government accounts themselves.
– Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)– Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). This where you
will find expenditures on infrastructure.– Strategic stocks– Consumption of fixed capital (CFC)
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Administrative sourcesGovernment Consumption of Fixed Capital
• Government CFC is the using up of government’s fixed capital assets and is an important part of the costs of producing government services.
• The SNA requires estimates of CFC in both government final consumption expenditure (part of GDP(E)) and in government value added (part of GDP(P)).
• The correct procedure is to estimate PIM from a perpetual inventory model (PIM).
• If you have no PIM, you can use “depreciation” if this is shown in the government accounts. But it should be at least 5% of government final consumption expenditure (GFCE)
• If you have no PIM and no depreciation in the government accounts, make an assumption that CFC is between 5%-7% of GFCE depending on the level of economic development .
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Administrative sources Trade and Taxes
• Merchandise trade statistics– Household consumption– Intermediate consumption– Capital formation in plant and machinery
• Tax records– Income tax– Sales taxes and VAT– Excise duties on alcohol and tobacco
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Administrative sourcesRegulator records
• Central bank data on the commercial banks and other financial institutions
• Insurance regulator
• Vehicle registration records
• Building permits
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Administrative sources Private sector
• Company accounts
• Chambers of commerce– Membership lists– Business surveys
• Business registration records
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International SourcesFAO Food Balances
• For 200 countries and 200 crops• Total domestic supply:– Domestic production, imports, exports, change in stocks
• Intermediate and final uses:– Feed– Seed– For processing– Consumption
• Quantities only
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Countries Item Element 2003
Malaysia Pineapples Production (tonnes) 320000
Malaysia Pineapples Import Quantity (tonnes) 2792
Malaysia Pineapples Stock Variation (tonnes) 0
Malaysia Pineapples Export Quantity (tonnes) 69067
Malaysia PineapplesDomestic supply quantity (tonnes) 253725
Malaysia PineapplesFood manufacture quantity (tonnes) 15481
Malaysia Pineapples Food (tonnes) 238077
Malaysia Pineapples Other Utilisation (tonnes) 167
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International sourcesOECD and other countries
• OECD– Input output data bank– Developing as well as developed countries– Intermediate consumption coefficients for 47
kinds of activities.
• Other countries’ data– Living Standards Measurement Studies surveys– Country reports
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Lessons?• National accounts draw on the full range of
statistics collected by the statistical office.• Some will be out of date and most will need
adjustments.• National accounts in all countries rely on
administrative data:– Government– Regulators– Private sector
• Don’t forget international sources. • You can also borrow from another country