Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9

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Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9 Data Sources for Estimating GDP

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Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9. Data Sources for Estimating GDP. Censuses (1). Population census: Size of population by gender and age Growth rates Housing, employment Agricultural census Crop production Livestock type and numbers Income and expenditure - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA) Lesson 9

Page 1: Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA)  Lesson 9

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved.

Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA)

Lesson 9

Data Sources for Estimating GDP

Page 2: Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA)  Lesson 9

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Censuses (1)• Population census:

– Size of population by gender and age– Growth rates– Housing, employment

• Agricultural census– Crop production– Livestock type and numbers– Income and expenditure

• These censuses are usually carried out every ten years and provide the benchmark figures which can be extrapolated by volume indicators for the years between censuses.

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Censuses (2)• Industry

– Production– Inputs– Capital formation– Employment– Inventories

• Housing– Numbers– Type of construction– Facilities– Year when built

• Benchmark estimates extrapolated for years between censuses

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Living Standards Measurement Study• The LSMS is a World Bank program helping

countries to measure living standards through household surveys and community surveys.

• LSMS surveys include modules on a large number of demographic, social and economic topics.

• LSMS surveys provide benchmark data for national accounts on household expenditure and income, employment, household and business assets, food intake ….

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Enterprise surveys (1)

• Cover enterprises operating from fixed locations• Often carried out annually but in some countries

less frequently• Collect data on sales, purchases, inventories,

wages and employment.• May be tailored to the kind of activity, e.g.:– Retail outlet– Restaurant– Factory

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Enterprise surveys (2)• Short or long questionnaires?• For the national accounts we are mainly

interested in wages and salaries paid and profits earned.

• Can we ask directly for profits? • Or do we need longer questionnaires asking

about all outputs and all inputs?• Some countries have tried experiments.

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Results of survey of unorganized manufacturing enterprises. India, 2000/2001

All Urban RuralGVA: based on detailed questions 71,495 89,664 43,852

GVA: based on short questions 68,277 85,615 41,898

Gap % -4,50 -4,52 -4,46

No. Observations 150,775 90,978 59,797

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Household Surveys• Income and expenditure surveys

– Monthly, quarterly, annually ?– Diaries or memory– Recall period– Income/expenditure consistency

• Labor force surveys– Monthly, quarterly, annual– Working or not– Earnings– Kind of activity– Occupation

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Combined Household/Enterprise Surveys (1-2 Surveys)

Household survey (1)• Usually a labour force

survey• Extra questions included

to determine if anyone in the household is running a business

• These households form the survey frame for the enterprise survey

Enterprise survey (2)• Type of business• Number of employees• Family workers• Sales• Business expenses• Value added;

Page 10: Introduction to the System of National Accounts (SNA)  Lesson 9

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Administrative sourcesGovernment accounts

• Government accounts– Budget, provisional, final.– IMF Government Finance Statistics. This is a better

source for the national accounts than the government accounts themselves.

– Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE)– Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). This where you

will find expenditures on infrastructure.– Strategic stocks– Consumption of fixed capital (CFC)

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Administrative sourcesGovernment Consumption of Fixed Capital

• Government CFC is the using up of government’s fixed capital assets and is an important part of the costs of producing government services.

• The SNA requires estimates of CFC in both government final consumption expenditure (part of GDP(E)) and in government value added (part of GDP(P)).

• The correct procedure is to estimate PIM from a perpetual inventory model (PIM).

• If you have no PIM, you can use “depreciation” if this is shown in the government accounts. But it should be at least 5% of government final consumption expenditure (GFCE)

• If you have no PIM and no depreciation in the government accounts, make an assumption that CFC is between 5%-7% of GFCE depending on the level of economic development .

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Administrative sources Trade and Taxes

• Merchandise trade statistics– Household consumption– Intermediate consumption– Capital formation in plant and machinery

• Tax records– Income tax– Sales taxes and VAT– Excise duties on alcohol and tobacco

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Administrative sourcesRegulator records

• Central bank data on the commercial banks and other financial institutions

• Insurance regulator

• Vehicle registration records

• Building permits

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Administrative sources Private sector

• Company accounts

• Chambers of commerce– Membership lists– Business surveys

• Business registration records

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International SourcesFAO Food Balances

• For 200 countries and 200 crops• Total domestic supply:– Domestic production, imports, exports, change in stocks

• Intermediate and final uses:– Feed– Seed– For processing– Consumption

• Quantities only

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Countries Item Element 2003

Malaysia Pineapples Production (tonnes) 320000

Malaysia Pineapples Import Quantity (tonnes) 2792

Malaysia Pineapples Stock Variation (tonnes) 0

Malaysia Pineapples Export Quantity (tonnes) 69067

Malaysia PineapplesDomestic supply quantity (tonnes) 253725

Malaysia PineapplesFood manufacture quantity (tonnes) 15481

Malaysia Pineapples Food (tonnes) 238077

Malaysia Pineapples Other Utilisation (tonnes) 167

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International sourcesOECD and other countries

• OECD– Input output data bank– Developing as well as developed countries– Intermediate consumption coefficients for 47

kinds of activities.

• Other countries’ data– Living Standards Measurement Studies surveys– Country reports

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Lessons?• National accounts draw on the full range of

statistics collected by the statistical office.• Some will be out of date and most will need

adjustments.• National accounts in all countries rely on

administrative data:– Government– Regulators– Private sector

• Don’t forget international sources. • You can also borrow from another country